Could Kentucky vs. South Carolina be a coaching hot-seat game? In Week 2? For 2 of the less storied traditions in the SEC?
Sure, the winner Saturday probably doesn’t lap Georgia, Bama or Texas. But in an SEC where getting into position to get into position is now a thing, the South Carolina-Kentucky winner still has a shot. In theory. The loser? Well, not so much.
Only 5 times since this game became an annual event in 1992 has this loser gone on to win even 8 games, and only twice has the loser won 9 games.
In fact, Kentucky-South Carolina has become something of a coach’s graveyard game.
After owning Kentucky for decades, Steve Spurrier took multiple losses to Kentucky in the early 2010s that seemed to hasten his retirement. Kentucky owned Will Muschamp, which did him no favors. A 54-3 loss to Carolina in 2011 probably started Joker Phillips’ move away from Lexington.
Carolina won 10 in a row under Lou Holtz and Spurrier to open the 2000s, but times began to change in 2010. Kentucky won 7 of 8 from 2014-2021, but the Gamecocks have won the past 2 seasons. Each loss seemingly forced Kentucky down to a 7-win season. So does that put more heat on Mark Stoops this week?
After all, Stoops is coming off those back-to-back 7-6 seasons and spent much of the offseason complaining about the difficulty in maintaining NIL, fundraising and coaching roles in the SEC. He flirted very heavily with Texas A&M and might even be flirting with retirement.
For all of the talk about Florida’s daunting schedule, Kentucky didn’t get off easy: The Wildcats still have to play No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Texas, No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 14 Tennessee.
Beating teams like South Carolina is a necessity, and not simply because the Wildcats are a heavy favorite playing at home.
“South Carolina is a team we always seem to have good games with through my many years here,” Stoops told reporters this week. “Always a very good game, always evenly matched.”
But is it very evenly matched this year?
Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff was fairly sharp in his first start, against Southern Miss (12-for-18 for 169 yards, 3 TDs). Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers struggled (10-for-23 for 114 yards). The Wildcats cruised to an easy 31-0 win, while South Carolina had to go down to the wire to wrestle a 23-19 victory from Old Dominion. Kentucky is favored by 10 points via DraftKings, the biggest point spread in the series since the 2020 matchup, which was Will Muschamp’s final game.
So maybe it’s Shane Beamer who should be concerned?
After all, he’s 21-18 at Carolina — and coming off a 5-7 campaign. For every 2-1 mark against Kentucky or upset of Clemson or Tennessee (both in 2022), there’s been an ugly loss to North Carolina or Florida or Texas A&M or Missouri. Up and down. Rinse, repeat. Looking at the back end of South Carolina’s schedule this season makes it clear that this game is huge if the Gamecocks have any hope of surpassing their over/under win total of 5.5, set by FanDuel, and getting back to a bowl.
Beamer talked about looking forward to traveling to Kentucky, as he grew up in Murray, Kentucky, when his dad coached FCS Murray State. He noted his personal respect for Stoops and the Kentucky program, but in an ever-tougher SEC, how many more 5-7 campaigns can Beamer survive?
Both coaches were optimistic in comments this week, both seeing good things from Week 1 wins.
But the seat under the loser of Kentucky/South Carolina is going to get a good deal warmer. So all that positivity might be two coaches whistling past the coaching graveyard. Somebody’s path is going to look much easier Saturday evening, but somebody else’s path is going to be looking pretty uncomfortable.
Just like always in this series.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 17
South Carolina freshman Dylan Stewart is one of the most amazing players in the SEC and he could have Brock Vandagriff running for his life.
Still, the offense that has looked substantially better has to get the early edge.
Advantage, Kentucky.
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