CHARLESTON COUNTY, S.C. (WCIV) — A special election in Tennessee may serve as a bellwether for the future of South Carolina’s most competitive congressional district heading into 2026.

Like several elections held this year, the Tennessee special election for the U.S. House shifted toward the Democratic Party when compared to the 2024 election. Matt Van Epps, a President Donald Trump-backed Republican, won by nine percentage points in a district the president carried by 22 points last fall. It marked a 13-point swing toward the Democrats, who were in the wilderness for months following Trump’s return to Washington.

In South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, widely considered an R+6, according to the Cook Political Report, it presents a unique opportunity for the party that held the seat from 2019 to 2021.

“The lesson from New Jersey, Virginia and now Tennessee is unmistakable,” said Mac Deford, one of the Democrats running for the party’s nomination in the district. “When Democrats center the issues that matter most to working families, we win.”

READ MORE | “Republican candidate Matt Van Epps wins Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.”

Similar to Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election, an incumbent will not be on the ballot. U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace has started her campaign for governor of South Carolina, leaving the seat up for grabs.

Several candidates have already jumped into the race. Republicans include Dorchester County Councilmember Jay Byars; Beaufort County Councilmember Logan Cunningham; Republican state Rep. Mark Smith of Mount Pleasant; Air Force veteran Alex Pelbath; former doctor Sam McCown; and Justin Myers, a Navy veteran.

Deford and Mayra Rivera-Vazquez are the two Democrats who have declared they are running thus far.

Working in favor of Democrats is Trump’s broad disapproval among the American electorate. The president’s approval rating sits at 36%, the lowest of his second term, while disapproval has risen to 60%, according to a new Gallup poll.

READ MORE | “Trump claims Tennessee Republicans’ win is ‘great night’ for GOP.”

Additionally, the president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections, as has happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938.

“The Democratic Party is organizing and connecting with a big coalition of voters who are now looking for real solutions on the issues,” Rivera-Vazquez said. “The fact that Tennessee was competitive is a good example that the same thing can happen in our district. This is a good opportunity for us. The Republican Congress has abdicated its responsibility. You see the results in these elections.”

In Tennessee, the 13-point swing toward Democrats was actually the smallest of the five congressional special elections held this year outside a major election day. Arizona’s 7th Congressional District swung 17 points. Virginia’s 11th Congressional District shifted 16. In both of those elections, a Democrat won.

Florida’s 1st Congressional District saw a 23-point swing, and Florida’s 6th Congressional District moved 16 points toward Democrats.

The generic ballot shows Democrats sitting at +5, according to polling averages from RealClear Polling.

Each election is different, but if the trend continues, South Carolina Democrats appear bullish on reclaiming a seat that hasn’t really been competitive since the boundaries were redrawn.

“What happened in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement. “Democrats are all gas and no brakes as we head into next year.”