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North Carolina forecasts one-time $1.4 billion budget surplus

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North Carolina forecasts one-time .4 billion budget surplus


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North Carolina has a projected one-time $1.4 billion surplus in state revenues through Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, according to the latest consensus revenue forecast released on Wednesday by the Office of State Budget and Management (OBSM) and the General Assembly’s Fiscal Research Division.

That surplus includes an estimated $413 million in the current fiscal year, and an estimated $1 billion in additional revenue in FY 2024-25.

With those extra anticipated funds, the revised revenue forecast for FY 2023 is $34.14 billion, a 1.2% increase from the certified budget. In FY 2024-25, the revised forecast is $34.37 billion — reflecting the expected $1 billion surplus, or 3% increase from the certified revenue.

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The anticipated overcollections come from individual income and sales taxes, the OBSM document says, “due largely to continued growth in earnings and consumer spending.”

However, the forecast anticipates lower corporate tax revenues “due primarily to a larger-than-expected shift in business tax collections from corporate income tax to individual income tax.”

“The upward revision is due to more robust economic growth than foreseen at the time of the last consensus forecast in May 2023,” the OBSM consensus document says. “Contrary to the CFG’s (Consensus Forecasting Group) expectations in May 2023, the economy demonstrated greater resilience and avoided a predicted period of stagnant growth, or ‘slowcession,’ in late 2023 and 2024. Instead, the April 2024 consensus forecast expects a ‘soft landing,’ with inflation easing toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target even as the economy continues to grow at a modestly slower pace than in 2023.”

Screenshot from the Fiscal Research Division’s consensus presentation.

Consensus forecasts are an essential component of the state’s budget process, as they help lawmakers know how much money is on the table to be invested.

The state’s legislative short session begins next week, on April 24. During this session, lawmakers can adjust the two-year budget passed during the previous long session and are able to discuss bills that previously passed one house or recommendations from a study commission.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper typically releases his budget proposal shortly after the consensus forecast comes out. Then, the House and Senate each release a proposal and work together to pass an updated compromise budget.

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House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland, recently told media that he would like to fund more money for the Opportunity Scholarship program. The program, which funds private school vouchers at eligible schools, was expanded during the long session to all families regardless of income.

About 72,000 applications were received ahead of the deadline on March 1, and of that, the families of 13,511 students were notified that they received a scholarship for the 2024-25 school year.

Moore said Republicans are discussing funding an additional $300 million toward the program, the News & Observer reported. The 2023 budget set the revised appropriation for the Opportunity Scholarship grant fund reserve to $354.5 million in FY 2024-25.

The families notified so far that they would receive a scholarship were all Tier 1 families, meaning they came from the lowest income levels. This means additional funding would go toward families with higher incomes.

Moore also said he would like to fund an additional $400 million toward Medicaid, child care subsidies, and additional raises to school and state employees. 

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On Thursday, Moore released an email statement regarding the $1.4 billion surplus.

“Today’s revenue forecast is a sign that North Carolina is on the right track,” he said. “Our conservative approach to responsible spending has been effective in strengthening our economy and attracting business to our state. When those businesses bring thousands of jobs to NC and our economy is strong, all of North Carolina wins.”

The OBSM document used more uncertain language regarding the forecast.

The end of April is typically the most uncertain time for revenue collections, the document said. Another revised consensus will be released in mid-to-late May if actual collections differ significantly from the most recent forecast.

“Revenue forecasts are always uncertain,” the document says, “but a recent business tax change affecting pass-through entities has further raised forecast uncertainty for individual and corporate income taxes due to a shift in payments between tax types and to differences in taxpayer behavior between business entities and individuals.”

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You can read the full OBSM forecast document here. You can also view the Fiscal Research Division’s forecast presentation here.

Hannah Vinueza McClellan

Hannah McClellan is EducationNC’s senior reporter and covers education news and policy, and faith.

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Disputes grow between NC Bar, legislative committee tasked with reforming it

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Disputes grow between NC Bar, legislative committee tasked with reforming it


A North Carolina legislative committee is drawing passionate support — and criticism — as it pushes forward with recommendations to inject more secrecy and politics into a group tasked with disciplining lawyers across the state. 

The committee plans to meet again this week, fresh off a dramatic hearing Tuesday, during which members of the committee sniped at one another, at least one appeared to have had no idea they’d be asked to vote on one particularly contentious item, and security had to forcibly eject a former state lawmaker who had refused to stop yelling accusations from a podium. 

The target of that speaker, as well as the committee he was addressing: the North Carolina State Bar, a regulatory board in charge of licensing and disciplining North Carolina’s lawyers.

It’s the central focus of the State Bar Grievance Review Committee, which has tussled with the Bar and its supporters in the state’s legal community as it has sought to investigate allegations of cancel culture against politically outspoken lawyers and as it has recommended other reforms or demanded political inquisitions.

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The committee, created in 2024, is a rarity in North Carolina: It consists of zero members of the state legislature. It’s led by Larry Shaheen and former state Sen. Woody White, two GOP insiders close with Republican state Senate leader Phil Berger. It can’t make changes on its own but can recommend them to the state legislature for approval. 

Some previous suggestions by the committee have won broad and bipartisan approval at the state legislature, such as limiting who can report lawyers to the Bar.

But its most recent proposals — including making lawyer discipline a more secretive process, controlled entirely by political appointees — has raised concerns inside the Bar, as well as with some of the lawyers who make a living fighting the Bar on behalf of their clients.

Some of the new changes Shaheen and others on the committee are backing would ban non-lawyers from being involved in hearings of the Bar’s Disciplinary Hearing Commission, which is tasked with deciding whether — and how harshly — to crack down on lawyers accused of things such as stealing clients’ money, sleeping with clients or abusing drugs or alcohol.

The committee also wants to staff the Disciplinary Hearing Commission entirely with political appointees — almost all of them Republicans — and decrease transparency in the process, making more details confidential. 

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The Bar has deep reservations about those and other proposed changes, saying they’ll harm its goal of protecting members of the public from predatory or simply bad lawyers. The committee has not asked for the Bar’s input during this process, and relations between the two groups have become strained. 

State Bar Executive Director Peter Bolac told WRAL he questions the need for these changes, which he said appear to have been put together “without broader input or a comprehensive understanding of the State Bar’s work.”

Bolac was at the most recent hearing on the changes, but he wasn’t invited to speak — whether to provide his own presentation, or to answer questions and concerns. He told WRAL the committee should attempt to learn how the Bar works, first, before trying to change it.

“Without a clear and shared understanding of how the current system functions, it is difficult to engage in a meaningful discussion about potential improvements,” Bolac said. “Nevertheless, we remain willing to participate in thoughtful, good-faith dialogue aimed at strengthening the system.”

Shaheen says he knows firsthand how the process works, having served on Disciplinary Hearing Commission he and his committee are now targeting. And he sees it as his mission to drastically change the way it operates, saying he has lost friends because of his association with it. “I have several lawyers, who have been long term friends of mine, who have come to me and, because of some of the things said to them, feel like I’m the devil,” Shaheen said.

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‘Radical changes’

The committee’s most recent meeting was just the latest in the committee’s years-long attempt to make reforms to the Bar.

Alan Schneider, who has represented more lawyers facing disciplinary hearings than perhaps anyone else in North Carolina, often finds himself at odds with the Bar. He previously gave a formal presentation to this same committee on suggestions to reform it.

But he says the latest suggestions, to ramp up the political appointments, go too far.

“There were problems in the past in terms of maybe old cases weren’t heard as quickly as they could,” Schneider said. “But the changes were made. The State Bar heard, and the State Bar has acted. What I’d like this panel to understand is the necessity for all these radical changes. I believe it is unnecessary.”

White and Shaheen said the changes are necessary. Shaheen said increasing political control over the Bar would increase accountability, by making members of the Bar answer to politicians who ultimately answer to the people.

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Under the new proposal, 19 of its 26 members would be chosen by various Republican politicians and the remaining seven would be chosen by Democratic Gov. Josh Stein.

“To have more folks appointed by public officials, we want to create more accountability, to make sure that the process is not weaponized against attorneys,” Shaheen said at the committee’s meeting on Tuesday.

White defended the push for less transparency.

“Nowadays when you can weaponize allegations in a nanosecond and publish them, put them out in a political context … that is unfair, for a lawyer to be accused of something before he or she is convicted of it,” he said.

‘Such sweeping reforms’

The committee is set to meet again Wednesday. The committee hadn’t released information on what issues it plans to discuss, but it’s expected to be closely watched by the state’s legal community.

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The relative lack of public notice on what this committee is considering also raised the ire of interested parties at last week’s meeting.

Jane Meyer, a Tharrington Smith attorney in Raleigh who also chairs the Bar’s disciplinary group, questioned why the proposals voted on Tuesday were only made public a few days beforehand, and with no opportunity for the Bar — or the general public — to respond.

White had originally attempted pushing through a vote Tuesday without allowing members of the public to speak. But he relented after Andrew Heath, a conservative lobbyist who serves on the committee, urged him to allow Meyer and other members of the public to have two minutes each to give brief comments.

“That troubles me — that such sweeping reforms are being considered without much study, and without asking for input,” Meyer told the committee.

Given the sweeping nature of their recommendations, Wake County District Attorney Colon Willoughby suggested the committee should “do a little bit more study and maybe get a little bit more information.” 

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Willoughby specifically criticized the proposal to make it harder for members of the public to learn about accusations against attorneys.

“We should not be trying to restrict and make things more confidential,” he said. “We should make it more open. The public needs to have quicker and more complete access. I think people find their lawyers now, not from their Sunday school class or their bowling league or their Lions Club, but through the internet searches. They want information.”

They were among the passionate speakers at the hearing, but perhaps not the most passionate. 

Two-plus hours into its most recent hearing on Tuesday, former state Rep. Edwin Hardy had his mic cut off and then was escorted out of the room by security. He was several minutes into speaking during the open public comment period as his comments turned into a rant involving former President Barack Obama, the late Gov. Jim Hunt, allegations of political favoritism, cocaine usage and more.

Hardy, a Republican who used to represent Beaufort County in the state House, was the only one ejected — even though he was also one of the few speakers who appeared to support the committee’s goal of major overhauls to the Bar. His comments were in line with the allegations White, Shaheen and others have been claiming for years about cancel culture.

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“I got very vocal online because Obama won,” Hardy told the committee. “… Well guess what: I was very vocal, and the day after Obama won reelection, I got a phone call and the Bar told me I had been randomly picked for an audit.”

State records show that that 2012 audit found Hardy had been using poor accounting practices with trust accounts where he held onto money for clients — including taking actions that “allowed entrusted funds to be disbursed in a manner not authorized by or for the benefit of the client.”

However, the Bar found he didn’t steal any of the money, and that there wasn’t any evidence of his clients being harmed by his trust fund missteps. It allowed him to continue practicing law.



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2 Candidates Emerge in NC State’s Coaching Search

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2 Candidates Emerge in NC State’s Coaching Search


RALEIGH — NC State replaced Kevin Keatts with Will Wade in March 2025, introducing him 368 days ago in front of the Wolfpack community at Reynolds Coliseum. A little over a year later, Wade decided to leave his new program to return to LSU, the school that fired him for cause in 2022, beginning a long journey back to Power Four basketball.

Now, athletic director Boo Corrigan and the rest of the NC State administration must find a new leader for the men’s basketball program. To make matters more complicated, they won’t have a lot of time to do so, as the new head coach needs to be in place firmly before April 7, the day the transfer portal opens. However, early noise indicates the group in charge has eyes on two candidates.


Who are the candidates?

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Mar 29, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack athletic director Boo Corrigan before the semifinals of the South Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament against the Marquette Golden Eagles at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

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According to multiple reports, Corrigan and other power brokers at NC State zeroed in on Saint Louis head coach Josh Schertz and Tennessee associate head coach Justin Gainey as the primary two candidates for the opening. Both names were expected to be in the mix as soon as the Wade exit became more and more likely, although Corrigan shared no specific names during his Thursday press conference.

The NC State University Board of Trustees hosted an emergency meeting on Friday, with the primary subject being Wade’s buyout negotiation. Of course, speculation began quickly that there were discussions about the next coach of the Wolfpack, but that’s been confirmed not to be the case in the behind-closed-doors meeting for the board.

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Even so, it seems as though NC State plans on making a strong push for Schertz first, despite his status as head coach at Saint Louis still and his recent agreement to a contract extension. That certainly makes things more complicated, but hiring Schertz would allow NC State to maintain any sort of positive momentum established by Wade and his regime in Raleigh. Still, Corrigan isn’t totally committed to a sitting head coach.

“I don’t think it has to be a sitting head coach at this point,” Corrigan said. “I think we want to find someone that knows how to coach and is a great coach, and has the ability to connect with people, both internal and external, with the players, be able to recruit. You have to be a good recruiter in this day and age.”

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Nov 12, 2022; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack Athletic Director Boo Corrigan looks on during the second half against the Boston College Eagles at Carter-Finley Stadium. The Eagles won 21-20. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

NC State will move as quickly as it possibly can, with Gainey and Schertz atop the list. That doesn’t rule out other options entirely, but all signs point to one of them being the most likely to be the next coach of the Wolfpack, ending the Will Wade era as quickly as it started.

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NC offshore wind project canceled as $1B deal shifts investment to fossil fuels

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NC offshore wind project canceled as B deal shifts investment to fossil fuels


A planned offshore wind project off North Carolina’s coast that could have powered roughly 300,000 homes has been scrapped after the federal government agreed to spend nearly $1 billion to halt its development, a decision that is drawing sharp reactions and raising questions about future energy costs in the state.

Under the agreement, the French energy company TotalEnergies will be reimbursed for leases it purchased in federal waters near Bald Head Island. In exchange, the company will redirect that investment into oil and natural gas projects, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) production.

The move comes as electricity demand in North Carolina and across the Southeast is rising, driven by population growth and the rapid expansion of energy-intensive data centers.

Energy analysts say removing a major potential source of power from the pipeline could have lasting implications.

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“I think folks are trying to figure out how to reconcile this with the fact that we do need more electrons on the grid,” said Katharine Kollins, president of the Southeastern Wind Coalition. “Every state right now is looking at how we can develop more energy, not how we should be taking options off the table.”

The canceled project, known as Carolina Long Bay, was one of two offshore wind developments TotalEnergies had planned along the East Coast. The North Carolina portion alone would have generated about 1,300 megawatts of electricity and brought significant economic development to the region.

State leaders were quick to criticize the decision. In a post on X, Gov. Josh Stein said the Trump administration is “spending nearly $1 billion in taxpayer money to pay off a company to stop investments in the clean energy we need,” calling it “a terrible deal for the people of North Carolina and our country.”

The Interior Department, which negotiated the agreement, defended the move, saying offshore wind projects are too costly and unreliable to meet the nation’s energy needs. In a statement, officials said redirecting investment toward natural gas would provide “affordable, reliable and secure energy” while strengthening grid stability.

The debate reflects a broader divide over how to meet growing electricity demand while keeping costs down.

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Offshore wind projects typically require high upfront investment but have no fuel costs once operational. Fossil fuel plants rely on fuel that can fluctuate in price.

“Using a billion dollars of taxpayer money to remove an option for North Carolina and then require that company to invest in LNG just doesn’t feel right,” Kollins said.

She and other advocates argue that offshore wind could help stabilize energy prices over time by diversifying the state’s power mix, particularly during periods of high demand or fuel volatility.

The federal government and industry leaders backing the deal say natural gas offers a more dependable source of power, especially as the grid faces increasing strain.

Part of that shift now points to LNG, which is traded on a global market. That means prices can rise or fall based on international demand, geopolitical tensions and export levels — dynamics that do not affect wind energy.

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The cancellation also highlights uncertainty around offshore wind development in North Carolina. Duke Energy, the state’s largest utility, holds a neighboring lease in the same area but paused development last year as it reevaluated costs and policy conditions.

As state regulators and utilities map out how to meet future demand, the loss of Carolina Long Bay narrows the range of options.

For residents, the stakes may ultimately show up in monthly bills.

“When we limit our choices,” Kollins said, “we limit our ability to control costs.”

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