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Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Harris In North Carolina And Arizona, Tie In Georgia (Updated)

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Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Harris In North Carolina And Arizona, Tie In Georgia (Updated)


Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with new polls out Thursday that show the contest in Georgia is a even, while Trump’s leads in North Carolina and Arizona are within the margin of error.

Key Facts

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% in a Marist poll released Thursday, and Trump leads 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg poll out Wednesday and 47%-43% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters out Tuesday, while a Washington Post-Schar poll released Monday found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

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North Carolina: Trump is up 50%-48% in the Marist poll—within the 3.6-point margin of error—and he’s up by 49.6%-48.5% in Bloomberg’s polling and 50%-47% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while Harris had a two-point lead in an Oct. 16 Quinnipiac poll. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 0.9-point advantage.

Arizona: Trump leads 50%-49% in the Marist poll (margin of error 3.7), and Trump is ahead by three points—49%-46%—in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, but Bloomberg reports an effectively tied 49.1%-48.8% Harris lead. Trump is up 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

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Michigan: Harris’ 49.6%-46.5% edge marks the largest lead of any state polled by Bloomberg, but it’s still within the four-point margin of error—and it’s similar to Harris’ 49%-46% lead in Quinnipiac’s polling after trailing Trump 50%-47% earlier this month. Harris is up by just 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: Harris leads 50%-48.2% according to Bloomberg, and she had a 49%-47% advantage in the Washington Post-Schar poll. Still, Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Nevada: Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% according to Bloomberg, but Trump is ahead 47%-46% in an AARP poll released Tuesday, and they’re tied at 48% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 found Trump up by 5 points. Harris leads by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

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Wisconsin: The state is almost as close as it can get, as Trump is up 48.3%-48% in Bloomberg’s poll and the two candidates are tied at 48% according to Quinnipiac, while Harris holds a 50%-47% edge in the Washington Post-Schar poll. Harris is up 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Big Number

0.2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 1.8 points.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

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Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

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Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)



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Rare whale shark sighting off North Carolina coast

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Rare whale shark sighting off North Carolina coast


Charles Gaddy was tuna fishing with his dad on Sunday, more than 40 miles northeast of Oregon Inlet, when he saw something he’d never seen before.

“I was just looking in the water, seeing if, you know, any birds or anything, and I see this big gray fish with white dots,” said Gaddy. “Just from reading books and watching movies as a kid, I was like, ‘that’s got to be a whale shark.’”

The 18-year-old said they circled it. He grabbed his GoPro camera and started recording.

“It’s just sitting there, swimming beside us. It really, truly was amazing,” said Gaddy.

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Whale sharks are the world’s largest fish. They’re currently listed as endangered by the Union for the Conservation of Nature.

In the Western Atlantic, whale sharks are primarily found in the Gulf and throughout the Caribbean, according to Eric Hoffmayer, a research fishing biologist with the National Marine Fisheries Service. He said they’ve seen numerous whale sharks make their way up the Gulf Stream, ending up in the New England area in late summer and early fall.

“We had an animal last year that we tagged off Tampa and within a month was off New York, and cruised right past North Carolina about this time of year,” said Hoffmayer. “It’s not unheard of, but it’s not real common either.”

Gaddy recognized how lucky he was to experience a sighting.

“To be able to see one in person, especially locally, it’s very truly amazing,” said Gaddy. “It’s no doubt a once-in-a-lifetime experience, and I’m no doubt very blessed.”

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If you do encounter a whale shark in the wild, Hoffmayer said, you need to be careful if you’re in a boat because they spend a lot of time at the surface. If you get in the water, keep a safe distance.

“Most people I’ve talked to who have encountered whale sharks, it’s like a life-changing experience,” said Hoffmayer. “It’s really cool to see an animal that large in the wild doing its thing.”

You can report whale shark sightings to the University of Southern Mississippi’s Center for Fisheries Research and Development. If you’re able to capture a good picture of a whale shark, you can see if it matches one already in a database by uploading the photo and information about the sighting online.



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College World Series finals set: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma for the national title

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College World Series finals set: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma for the national title


OMAHA, Neb. — The championship series is set. And without a doubt, the two hottest teams, North Carolina and Oklahoma, are paired to play for a national title at the College World Series.

There was no backing into the finals for these squads, one that looked like a contender all season and one that did not until two weeks ago.

North Carolina (53-12-1) and Oklahoma (41-22) swept through opposite brackets at Charles Schwab Field. UNC punctuated its three-game run with a 12-7 victory Wednesday against West Virginia. OU followed by defeating Georgia, the regular-season and postseason SEC champ, 11-4.

Iconic brands in college sports, the Tar Heels and Sooners will meet Saturday at 8 p.m. ET in the opening game of a best-of-three series.

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North Carolina seeks its first national championship in baseball. It lost in the finals in 2006 and 2007. Oklahoma has won two crowns, most recently in 1994, and it lost in the finals in 2022.

“It really hasn’t set in yet,” said UNC second baseman Gavin Gallaher, who was 4 for 5 on Wednesday with four RBIs. “After the game, we shook hands, and I was just kind of walking around, looking up in the stands, looking at my family, just kind of speechless, to be honest.”

The Tar Heels were seeded fifth in the 64-team field announced on Memorial Day. In Omaha, they have not trailed by more than one run — and for just three innings. North Carolina’s pitching staff, on maximum rest during its stay in Omaha, is set up well for the weekend.

Junior ace starter Jason DeCaro, who worked 6 2/3 innings Friday, enters the championship series in position to start the opener. Star freshman Caden Glauber, who was needed for 2 1/3 innings Wednesday afternoon as WVU mounted a comeback, has thrown only 54 pitches in the CWS. The Tar Heels are 28-0 this year when Glauber appears in a game. He’s won 11 decisions without a loss.

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Sixth-year coach Scott Forbes took over in 2021 for Mike Fox, who brought North Carolina to the CWS seven times. Bids for a first national title fell short in 2006 and 2007 against Oregon State in the championship series.

Forbes joined Fox’s staff before that 2006 season as a 31-year-old pitching coach.

“I’m trying not to get emotional,” Forbes said, “just thinking about that team and Coach Fox giving me the opportunity. I wasn’t the popular hire at the time. There were a lot bigger names. I had never been a pitching coach. But Coach Fox saw something in me and gave me that opportunity.”

Oklahoma returns to the championship series for the second time in five years. It lost to Ole Miss in 2022. The Rebels that year were the first team to win a championship with a losing record in conference play.

OU is attempting to become the second.

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Coach Skip Johnson’s team finished 14-16 in the SEC and lost four consecutive league series to close the regular season. But the Sooners clawed back in Regional play, winning two elimination games at Georgia Tech, the No. 2 overall seed.

OU swept Kansas in a Super Regional and beat SEC foes Alabama and Georgia before it won the rematch Wednesday night against the Bulldogs.

The Sooners remade their pitching rotation in the postseason to ride three true freshmen: left-hander Cord Rager, a season-long starter, Xander Mercurius and Nick Wesloski. The latter duo had combined to start four games this season before they both beat the Bulldogs, who came to Omaha with the most powerful lineup in college baseball.

Wesloski fired 5 2/3 innings Wednesday and struck out four, one off his career high.

Rager and Mercurius have inspired Wesloski, he said.

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“Seeing the way they dominated and they carry themselves,” he said, “those guys are just elite. Watching them go about their process has made me a better pitcher. Those guys look unstoppable, unbeatable. It’s added to my confidence level. They influence me a ton.”

OU got hot at the plate, too. In eliminating Georgia, it homered five times, including two apiece by Jason Walk and Dasan Harris. Before Wednesday, Walk had hit four bombs in 200 at-bats; Harris had four in 137 at-bats.

Twenty-five of Oklahoma’s 90 home runs this year have come in 10 postseason games.

It pays to get hot at the right time.

“You’re looking at a baseball team, a selfless baseball team that’s really fun to be around,” said Johnson, the ninth-year OU coach. “Hopefully, I can just stay out of the way the next two or three games.”

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Late and overpaid: New audits show continued problems with NC unemployment system

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Late and overpaid: New audits show continued problems with NC unemployment system


RALEIGH, NC — For years, WRAL Investigates tracked problems with North Carolina’s unemployment benefits system.

Now, two new follow-up audits show the same problems still persist inside the Division of Employment Security (DES) when it comes to paying the correct amount of unemployment and paying those first-time benefits on time.

The first audit deals with improper payments. The category includes fraud, overpayments and underpayments.

From 2021-2025, the auditor found the improper payment rate for unemployment benefits in North Carolina was 22%, most of which were overpayments. That’s more than double the national standard of 10% error rate.

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According to the North Carolina Office of the State Auditor (OSA), those payment errors cost taxpayers more than $90 million over the expected 10% error rate.

In fact, the improper payment rate got worse compared to an initial audit’s findings back in 2022, when OSA found errors in 18% of payments.

The second follow-up audit out today dealt with timeliness of benefits, meaning when people finally got paid after filing and qualifying for unemployment.

In 2024- 2025, 28% of first-time unemployment checks were not cut within the 14-day federal standard.  While not great, it’s an improvement compared to previous audit findings of 40% late checks in 2022 and 43% of late checks in 2024.

In fact, the auditor’s office noted on-time payments in below the national standard in just 3 of the past 20 years.

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The Division of Unemployment Security agreed with the findings and recommendations to improve North Carolina’s unemployment system.



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