Mississippi State football’s new offense creates plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers. QB Blake Shapen should easily see the best season of his career playing for Jeff Lebby in Starkville, but in order for him to throw for a lot of yards, he needs weapons to catch those passes.

Let’s look at who’s likely to be his main target and what their production might look like.

Jeff Lebby and WRs coach Chad Bumphis had to completely overhaul the Bulldog receiving corps after losing the top-four WRs from 2023. They did an outstanding job, landing three strong transfers in Kelly Akharaiyi, Kevin Coleman, and Trent Hudson and adding a trio of 4-star true freshmen.

Akharaiyi and Coleman will likely be the go-to options for QB Blake Shapen. Lebby’s slot receivers often end-up being his receiving leader, and that’d be Coleman. But when an outside WR, like Akharaiyi, had been his best, he’s had no issue feeding them the ball.

I tend to think Akharaiyi is the best all-around WR on the team and will have a chance at some lofty numbers on vertical routes. Also, the depth in the slot is greater than on the outside, meaning there could be more of a rotation there.

I’ll take Akharaiyi to lead the team in yardage.

Kelly Akharaiyi played in a run-heavy attack at UTEP that didn’t exactly give a ton of opportunities to multiple WRs. But they had no problem targeting their top option, and in 2023, that was Akharaiyi. He hauled in 48 receptions for 1,033 yards last season. That’s 21.5 yards per catch, fourth best in the country. He’s a true deep threat, which means he can thrive playing for Jeff Lebby.

If you’re the leading WR in a Jeff Lebby offense, chances are you put up huge numbers. I’m going to exclude a very significant outlier here so not to skew the averages, but typically, Lebby’s receiving leader puts up about 1,026 yards a season.

The fewest yards by his leading receiver came from Gabe Davis in 2018 at UCF with 815. As for the most, the statistical outlier I excluded from the average was Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore in 2020. In just eight games, Moore recorded an absurd 1,193 yards. That’s over 149 yards a game. Had Moore played a full season at that pace, he would’ve finished with nearly 1,790 yards.

That’s simply remarkable. I doubt Kelly Akharaiyi comes anywhere close to that, but he should still be plenty productive in this system.

It just so happens that Kelly Akharaiyi’s 2023 season at UTEP is right in line with what Jeff Lebby’s top WR usually records. And while that offense was very different, how he was used was very similar to the role he’ll serve at MSU.

We do have to account for the fact he was playing in the Conference-USA, but as I’ve said many times, I do expect MSU to throw quite a bit this year to make up for their own defense. His number of opportunities will easily increase.

I believe he’s going for over 1,000 yards again. I’d set the over/under at 1,020, and I think there’s a real chance he challenges Makai Polk’s school record of 1,048 yards.

UTEP transfer Kelly Akharaiyi is expected to lead the way for Mississippi State football in the receiving corps for 2024. Playing in Jeff Lebby’s offense, there’s a real chance he challenges the single-season school record for receiving yards.

But how many touchdowns will he catch this fall?

To say Kelly Akharaiyi was UTEP’s primary scoring option would be an understatement. He caught seven TDs in 2023. As a team, UTEP only had 13 receiving TDs, so he had more than half of those. Also, no other player caught more than one. It was Kelly Akharaiyi and basically no one else for the Miners.

As you could expect, the top WRs in Lebby’s offenses usually have little trouble finding the endzone. On average, his receiving TD leader brings in about nine scores, but he’s had three players reach double-digits (plus a fourth in Elijah Moore who was on pace to in a shortened 2020).

UCF’s Gabe Davis caught 12 receiving TDs in 2019, the most by a Lebby receiver. In 2022 at Oklahoma, top receiver Marvin Mims had just six TDs, but technically he didn’t lead the team in that category. TE Brayden Willis actually led OU with seven scores.

While seven receiving TDs in 2023 isn’t far off from what Jeff Lebby’s WRs tend to churn out, Kelly Akharaiyi is going to get more opportunities to put points on the board in Starkville than he did in El Paso.

But I don’t know that he’ll make a serious run at breaking the school record of 12 TD catches in a year, shared by Fred Ross and Akharaiyi’s current WRs coach Chad Bumphis. The reason is I believe there’s a chance he sees fewer targets in the redzone. Bigger frames in Trent Hudson and TE Seydou Traore could be the main looks closer to the goal line. The same could apply for a shiftier option like Kevin Coleman.

I still expect Akahariyi to lead the team in TDs, but I’d set his over/under at about an 8.5 as opposed to double-digits. But I’d by no means be surprised if he does in fact go above that mark.