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Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) score prediction by expert college football model

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Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) score prediction by expert college football model


Notre Dame returns home coming off a strong road victory but looking to avoid disaster against another MAC team in the house that Rockne built, as Miami of Ohio comes to town in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.

The last time the Irish played under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus, it ended with Northern Illinois kicking a go-ahead field goal in a historic upset that marked the first time a MAC team defeated an AP top-five ranked team.

Notre Dame promptly lost that lofty position in the poll, but inched back up to No. 17 nationally after demolishing Purdue in a 66-7 result that must have felt cathartic for the team and its fanbase.

Miami (OH) checks in at 0-2, yet to surpass 20 points in a game, ranking 133rd nationally in scoring output with just 11 points on average, and 134th in rushing. But the RedHawks can throw the ball, posting 292 yards per game, good for 29th in FBS.

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What do the analytics predict for the matchup?

Let’s check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Miami compare in this Week 4 college football game.

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Fighting Irish in this home matchup.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Miami by a projected score of 38 to 6 and to win the game by an expected 31.7 points.

The model gives the Irish a strong 98 percent chance of outright victory.

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SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Notre Dame is a 28 point favorite against Miami, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 43.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -5000 and for Miami at +2000 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

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Other analytical models also forecast the Irish will easily win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame comes out the expected winner in 96.9 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves the RedHawks as the projected winner in the remaining 3.1 percent of sims.

The model forecasts that Notre Dame will be 31.1 points better than Miami on the same field.

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That’s also enough to cover the 28 point spread.

Notre Dame will win 9.7 games this season and sits 11th nationally with a 37.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI metrics.

The models expect Miami to win 5.5 games this season with a 48.6 percent chance to play in a bowl.

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Miami, FL

Tua Tagovailoa will return to Miami for preseason contest against Dolphins

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Tua Tagovailoa will return to Miami for preseason contest against Dolphins


The full 2026 NFL schedule was released on Thursday night — including dates and times for all 17 regular season Miami Dolphins games. However, following that release, the NFL also released preseason schedules for all teams — and a familiar face will be returning to Miami to face-off against the team that made him the #5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was released by the Dolphins this offseason, but quickly found a new home in Atlanta with the Falcons. During the final week of preseason action, Tagovailoa will be returning to South Florida when the Falcons play the Dolphins on Friday, August 28th at 7:00 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.

It is not uncommon for NFL teams to practice against each other for a few days leading up to a preseason showdown, so Tagovailoa may find himself on familiar ground for longer than one game if the Dolphins and Falcons choose to mix it up in Miami Gardens ahead of their Week 3 preseason tilt.

Of course, plenty of teams rest starters during the final week of the preseason, so Tagovailoa may not actually end up seeing the playing field when the game kicks off, but seeing the former first-rounder on the sidelines again in Miami — albeit on the visiting sideline this time around — will be a peculiar sight nonetheless.

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We will continue to keep you updated on all things Miami Dolphins as the march towards the preseason — and regular season — continues on through the summer.



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Miami residents sue over land for Trump presidential library

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Miami residents sue over land for Trump presidential library


A group of Miami residents has filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump and the state of Florida over a land giveaway for his proposed presidential library.

Almost three acres of prime waterfront land that once belonged to Miami Dade College (MDC) was illegally gifted to the US president by Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, the lawsuit states.

It cites the domestic emoluments clause of the US constitution that prohibits a sitting president from receiving any personal gain, profit or advantage from their position.

The action was brought in US district court for the southern district of Florida by the Washington DC-based Constitutional Accountability Center (CAC) on behalf of plaintiffs including an MDC student, a Miami non-profit, and residents, who state the land “is no longer available to serve MDC’s student community and downtown Miami”.

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Instead, the filing states, “the land will house a Trump hotel that brings riches to the President”.

Plans for the “gaudy” project were unveiled in March, to be built next to Miami’s iconic Freedom Tower, the historical landmark and community art museum. A giant golden statue of the president will stand before a 50-story tower block that will feature the controversial $400m Boeing “flying palace” jumbo jet gifted to him by Qatar, but not yet in service, in its cavernous lobby.

At the time, Trump said the building was “most likely going to be a hotel”.

The land on which it will sit, the lawsuit said, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

“Rather than prevent President Trump from using the gifted land for personal gain, Florida … required that the conveyed land include only ‘components of a Presidential library, museum, and/or center’, leaving the door open for the President to develop the property in any way he sees fit,” the CAC said in a statement.

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The library has already been the subject of one lawsuit that claimed MDC trustees, most of them handpicked by DeSantis, erred by originally handing the land to the state in September during an unadvertised meeting with no public discussion.

The board held a do-over in December, and voted unanimously to proceed with the transfer.

The Guardian has contacted the Trump Presidential Library Foundation and DeSantis’s office for comment.



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Inter Miami CF scores three late goals to defeat FC Cincinnati, 5-3

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Inter Miami CF scores three late goals to defeat FC Cincinnati, 5-3


To no one’s surprise, FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami CF engaged in a scorefest May 13 at TQL Stadium.

A hat trick by one of the best goalscorers in the history of the game, Lionel Messi, sparked Miami to a 5-3 win. Miami scored three times from the 79th minute on to come from behind.

A sellout crowd of 25,513 witnessed the showdown, the club’s sixth home sellout of the season.

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FC Cincinnati falls to 4-5-4, staying at 16 points, taking its first loss since April 4 at Red Bull New York. Miami improves to 7-2-4 for 25 points, improving to 7-1-1 on the road this season. Miami moved into second place in the Eastern Conference behind Nashville. Cincinnati started the night tied for fifth but could drop depending on games later on.

Second half highlights as FC Cincinnati squandered a late lead

Cincinnati took a 3-2 lead in the 64th minute.

Evander fired a rocket from the top of the 18 into the top left corner. Deneky passed ahead to him, then he maneuvered around two defenders, and no one stepped up to him. It is Evander’s seventh goal of the season.

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Miami tied it in the 80th minute, 3-3.

After a Cincy turnover, Rodrigo De Paul quickly found Messi in transition, who delivered to Mateo Silvetti. Silvetti, playing his first game in a month, maneuvered in space and scored from the top of the box for his fourth of the season.

Miami took a 4-3 lead in the 83rd. A Messi free kick from 35 yds was saved by Cincy keeper Roman Celentano. He collided with Andrei Chirila, which knocked the ball out of his hands. Miami’s German Berterame pounced on the rebound to give Miami the lead, his fourth goal of the season.

Chirila landed hard after the collision and was taken out of the game.

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Miami took a 5-3 lead when Messi made a sliding shot after a cross from Silvetti. The ball went off the post, then off Roman Celentano, who was on his stomach trying to get the ball, then in. Messi was credited with the goal and a hat trick.

FC Cincinnati took a 2-1 lead in the 49th minute.

Pavel Bucha scored from close range. He took a crossing pass from Bryan Ramirez after Denkey found him on the left side in transition.

It was Bucha’s second goal of the MLS season and the second assist for Ramirez. Bucha was hit in the head late in the first half and examined by trainers, but stayed in the game.

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Moments later, Messi had a free kick from 30 yards saved by Celentano.

Messi scored again in the 56th minute to tie it, 2-2. He had a nice give-and-go with Rodrigo De Paul, who dribbled near the end line and crossed to him from the right side. Messi was unmarked and scored easily from near the penalty spot.

In the 62nd minute, Luis Suarez missed an open shot that Celentano saved, set up by a quick transition by Miami.

Miami ended with 17 shots to 10 for Cincinnati, six on target. After an even first half, Miami controlled the expected-goals mark, with 4 to 1.6 for the home team.

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First half highlights

Messi scored from close range in the 24th off a turnover by Matt Miazga. Miazga tried to pass to a teammate on the side but the pass went straight to Messi.

He had a goal in the fifth minute waved off by offsides.

In the 32nd minute, Cincinnati won a corner kick, which Evander placed right in front of the goal line but the ball was cleared away.

In the 42nd minute, a Kevin Denkey penalty kick tied it up. Denkey drew the PK after collecting a good pass into the box by Pavel Bucha and being grabbed by Gonzalo Lujan. Denkey converted for his team-high eighth goal of the season.

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The first half was tied 1-1 and virtually even on statistics. Both sides had seven shots, one on goal, and 1.1 expected goals. Neither keeper made a save.

What’s next for FC Cincinnati?

Cincinnati heads to the West Coast to play San Diego FC 9:30 p.m. Saturday, May 16. It is the first meeting between the teams. San Diego, 3-5-4 for 13 points, was set to play Austin later May 13. Cincinnati will leave for California on May 14.



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