Miami Open Match Preview

“I would say like a solid 75,” Osaka said this week, when she was asked to rate her ball-striking level at the moment. “I think 75 is a good number.”

That’s 75 out of a 100 hundred, I assume. It was enough, barely, to get her through in three sets against 108th-ranked Yuliia Starodubtseva in her first match in Miami. But it’s not where Osaka feels she was to start the season.

“I felt really, really good in Australia,” Osaka said. “Then I got injured, and I couldn’t play for, like, three weeks to a month. That gap, it took me back quite a lot. I think now it’s better again, but I still find myself not really committed to the shots that I want to hit.”

The question for Osaka is whether she can reach a higher number against Samsonova, because 75 doesn’t seem like it’s going to be enough. The Russian is ranked 40 spots ahead of her, No. 21 to No. 61. She beat her the last time they played, 7-5 in the third in Madrid in 2024. And she made a decent run to the quarters last week in Indian Wells, before losing to Aryna Sabalenka.

Osaka has the better serve, and Samsonova can have bad days out of the blue; with her talent and physicality, she should be ranked higher. But on a good day, she’s a player who can match, or come close to matching, Osaka’s pace from the ground. Winner: Samsonova

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