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Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say

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Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say


ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 6 Miami is back from its open week on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Miami is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams this week, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st nationally in both scoring offense and average passing yardage.

Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight games, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC play, but rebounded last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the simulations give a slight edge to the visiting team to stay perfect.

Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Hurricanes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s simulations for the game, while the Cardinals won out in the other 8,920 predictions.

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The index also projects a close result on the scoreboard.

Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Hurricanes to cover the spread.

That’s because Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.

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And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -200 and for Louisville at +170 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the Hurricanes will take care of the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

About 60 percent of bets project Miami will beat Louisville and cover the spread.

And the other 40 percent of wagers expect the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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The index suggests the Hurricanes are 17.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 10 nationally.

That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.8 games and lists the team as fifth in the ACC with a 7.9 percent shot at the playoff.

FPI forecasts the Cardinals will be 14.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 16th nationally.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

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Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Texas (56)
  2. Oregon (6)
  3. Penn State
  4. Ohio State
  5. Georgia
  6. Miami
  7. Alabama
  8. LSU
  9. Iowa State
  10. Clemson
  11. Tennessee
  12. Notre Dame
  13. BYU
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Boise State
  16. Indiana
  17. Kansas State
  18. Ole Miss
  19. Missouri
  20. Pittsburgh
  21. SMU
  22. Illinois
  23. Army
  24. Michigan
  25. Navy

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Miami, FL

Tokyo-style Neapolitan pizza is coming to Miami, led by legendary pizzaiolo chef Bun

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Tokyo-style Neapolitan pizza is coming to Miami, led by legendary pizzaiolo chef Bun


If you’re a diehard pizza fanatic in Miami, you’ll soon be able to check another renowned style off your list without leaving home. Arriving in October 2026, Royale Pizza Napoletana will debut at 1680 Meridian Avenue, introducing South Florida to the exceptionally precise world of Tokyo-style Neapolitan pizza. This highly anticipated opening marks the monumental stateside arrival of legendary Japanese pizzaiolo Chef Bun, the mastermind behind Tokyo’s genre-defining concept, Savoy.

RECOMMENDED: Where to find the best pizza in Miami

The restaurant is the brainchild of banking entrepreneur and restaurateur Jess Varughese, the innovator behind Miami’s ultra-exclusive, members-only hotspot, Haiku. After experiencing Chef Bun’s “perfect pizzas” during a trip to Japan, Varughese envisioned bringing this science-driven culinary movement to sunny South Florida. To ensure absolute authenticity, Varughese assembled an elite culinary team. Alongside Chef Bun, the kitchen features Haiku Executive Chef Albert Diaz and Chef Dalila Sabatino, a rising pizzaiola talent praised by Bun who previously trained at Los Angeles’ acclaimed Pizzeria Sei.

Photograph: Courtesy Royale Pizza NapoletanaRoyale Pizza Napoletana

What sets Tokyo-style Neapolitan pizza apart is its rigorous, chemistry-like execution. At Royale, the dough undergoes a meticulous 30+ hour fermentation process. Varughese and his team spent hundreds of hours adjusting the recipe, combining artisan flours with the Autolyse technique and even altering Miami’s water softness to match Japan’s famously soft water. Pizzas are then baked fresh in an 800-degree oven. The resulting crust achieves an ethereal balance of lightness, chewiness, char and crunch. As Varughese notes, having Chef Bun’s 20-plus years of innovation on board elevates the entire culinary game.

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Royale will be fast-casual, yet polished, with seating for 65 guests including a large community table at its center. Staying true to an accessible vibe, the restaurant will operate on a first-come, first-served walk-in basis with no reservations, though takeout and delivery will be available. You’ll order at a main counter from a carefully curated menu featuring antipasti, two pastas, two mains and seven distinct pizzas—including four traditional options and three specials. This is a pizza spot that deserves the hype, so stay up to date on their progress at @royalenapoletana ahead of the official October launch.





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Miami, FL

Girl, 12, shot while sitting in parked car in northwest Miami-Dade, deputies say

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Girl, 12, shot while sitting in parked car in northwest Miami-Dade, deputies say


MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, Fla. — A 12-year-old girl was shot in the arm after gunfire erupted in a northwest Miami-Dade neighborhood early Tuesday morning, according to the Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office.

Deputies said they responded just before 1 a.m. to the area of Northwest 64th Street and Northwest 21st Avenue in the county’s Gladeview area, where they found three vehicles struck by gunfire, including a silver Hyundai.

“The car was parked outside of the residence. It was occupied by three juveniles, so it was the girl and her two siblings that were in the vehicle. The mom was outside of the vehicle at the time, so this could have been a very different outcome,” MDSO Detective Samantha Choon said.

Authorities said Miami-Dade Fire Rescue medics transported the girl to a nearby hospital in stable condition.

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A family member of the victim told Local 10’s Jackie Pascale that the girl is now home and doing OK.

They said neither her siblings nor their mother was injured in the shooting.

According to investigators, no arrests have been made, and detectives have not released any suspect information at this time.

Neighbor Marie Grimes said she was shaken after hearing multiple gunshots.

“I heard the booms — boom, boom, boom, boom — and I said, ‘Oh my God, what’s happening?’” she said. “Maybe five or six, ’cause look at that right there. I’m just glad the little girl is OK.”

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Investigators asked neighbors to check their surveillance or Ring camera footage from around 1 a.m. and contact authorities with any information.

Anyone with information on the shooting is urged to contact Miami-Dade Crime Stoppers at 305-471-8477. Anonymous tips are accepted.

Copyright 2026 by WPLG Local10.com – All rights reserved.





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Miami, FL

South Florida mother arrested for leaving daughter chained to fence, police say

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South Florida mother arrested for leaving daughter chained to fence, police say


A Hialeah woman was arrested and charged with child neglect for leaving her 13-year-old daughter chained to her great-grandmother’s fence in the heat with no shoes or water. CBS News Miami’s Abby Dodge reports from the neighborhood where it all happened.



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