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Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say
ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 6 Miami is back from its open week on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.
Miami is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams this week, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st nationally in both scoring offense and average passing yardage.
Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight games, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC play, but rebounded last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
So far, the simulations give a slight edge to the visiting team to stay perfect.
Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.
That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.6 percent of sims.
In total, the Hurricanes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s simulations for the game, while the Cardinals won out in the other 8,920 predictions.
The index also projects a close result on the scoreboard.
Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Hurricanes to cover the spread.
That’s because Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -200 and for Louisville at +170 to win outright.
A plurality of bettors expect the Hurricanes will take care of the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
About 60 percent of bets project Miami will beat Louisville and cover the spread.
And the other 40 percent of wagers expect the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.
Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
The index suggests the Hurricanes are 17.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 10 nationally.
That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.8 games and lists the team as fifth in the ACC with a 7.9 percent shot at the playoff.
FPI forecasts the Cardinals will be 14.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 16th nationally.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Texas (56)
- Oregon (6)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Illinois
- Army
- Michigan
- Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The full 2026 NFL schedule was released on Thursday night — including dates and times for all 17 regular season Miami Dolphins games. However, following that release, the NFL also released preseason schedules for all teams — and a familiar face will be returning to Miami to face-off against the team that made him the #5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was released by the Dolphins this offseason, but quickly found a new home in Atlanta with the Falcons. During the final week of preseason action, Tagovailoa will be returning to South Florida when the Falcons play the Dolphins on Friday, August 28th at 7:00 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
It is not uncommon for NFL teams to practice against each other for a few days leading up to a preseason showdown, so Tagovailoa may find himself on familiar ground for longer than one game if the Dolphins and Falcons choose to mix it up in Miami Gardens ahead of their Week 3 preseason tilt.
Of course, plenty of teams rest starters during the final week of the preseason, so Tagovailoa may not actually end up seeing the playing field when the game kicks off, but seeing the former first-rounder on the sidelines again in Miami — albeit on the visiting sideline this time around — will be a peculiar sight nonetheless.
We will continue to keep you updated on all things Miami Dolphins as the march towards the preseason — and regular season — continues on through the summer.
A group of Miami residents has filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump and the state of Florida over a land giveaway for his proposed presidential library.
Almost three acres of prime waterfront land that once belonged to Miami Dade College (MDC) was illegally gifted to the US president by Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, the lawsuit states.
It cites the domestic emoluments clause of the US constitution that prohibits a sitting president from receiving any personal gain, profit or advantage from their position.
The action was brought in US district court for the southern district of Florida by the Washington DC-based Constitutional Accountability Center (CAC) on behalf of plaintiffs including an MDC student, a Miami non-profit, and residents, who state the land “is no longer available to serve MDC’s student community and downtown Miami”.
Instead, the filing states, “the land will house a Trump hotel that brings riches to the President”.
Plans for the “gaudy” project were unveiled in March, to be built next to Miami’s iconic Freedom Tower, the historical landmark and community art museum. A giant golden statue of the president will stand before a 50-story tower block that will feature the controversial $400m Boeing “flying palace” jumbo jet gifted to him by Qatar, but not yet in service, in its cavernous lobby.
At the time, Trump said the building was “most likely going to be a hotel”.
The land on which it will sit, the lawsuit said, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
“Rather than prevent President Trump from using the gifted land for personal gain, Florida … required that the conveyed land include only ‘components of a Presidential library, museum, and/or center’, leaving the door open for the President to develop the property in any way he sees fit,” the CAC said in a statement.
The library has already been the subject of one lawsuit that claimed MDC trustees, most of them handpicked by DeSantis, erred by originally handing the land to the state in September during an unadvertised meeting with no public discussion.
The board held a do-over in December, and voted unanimously to proceed with the transfer.
The Guardian has contacted the Trump Presidential Library Foundation and DeSantis’s office for comment.
To no one’s surprise, FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami CF engaged in a scorefest May 13 at TQL Stadium.
A hat trick by one of the best goalscorers in the history of the game, Lionel Messi, sparked Miami to a 5-3 win. Miami scored three times from the 79th minute on to come from behind.
A sellout crowd of 25,513 witnessed the showdown, the club’s sixth home sellout of the season.
FC Cincinnati falls to 4-5-4, staying at 16 points, taking its first loss since April 4 at Red Bull New York. Miami improves to 7-2-4 for 25 points, improving to 7-1-1 on the road this season. Miami moved into second place in the Eastern Conference behind Nashville. Cincinnati started the night tied for fifth but could drop depending on games later on.
Second half highlights as FC Cincinnati squandered a late lead
Cincinnati took a 3-2 lead in the 64th minute.
Evander fired a rocket from the top of the 18 into the top left corner. Deneky passed ahead to him, then he maneuvered around two defenders, and no one stepped up to him. It is Evander’s seventh goal of the season.
Miami tied it in the 80th minute, 3-3.
After a Cincy turnover, Rodrigo De Paul quickly found Messi in transition, who delivered to Mateo Silvetti. Silvetti, playing his first game in a month, maneuvered in space and scored from the top of the box for his fourth of the season.
Miami took a 4-3 lead in the 83rd. A Messi free kick from 35 yds was saved by Cincy keeper Roman Celentano. He collided with Andrei Chirila, which knocked the ball out of his hands. Miami’s German Berterame pounced on the rebound to give Miami the lead, his fourth goal of the season.
Chirila landed hard after the collision and was taken out of the game.
Miami took a 5-3 lead when Messi made a sliding shot after a cross from Silvetti. The ball went off the post, then off Roman Celentano, who was on his stomach trying to get the ball, then in. Messi was credited with the goal and a hat trick.
FC Cincinnati took a 2-1 lead in the 49th minute.
Pavel Bucha scored from close range. He took a crossing pass from Bryan Ramirez after Denkey found him on the left side in transition.
It was Bucha’s second goal of the MLS season and the second assist for Ramirez. Bucha was hit in the head late in the first half and examined by trainers, but stayed in the game.
Moments later, Messi had a free kick from 30 yards saved by Celentano.
Messi scored again in the 56th minute to tie it, 2-2. He had a nice give-and-go with Rodrigo De Paul, who dribbled near the end line and crossed to him from the right side. Messi was unmarked and scored easily from near the penalty spot.
In the 62nd minute, Luis Suarez missed an open shot that Celentano saved, set up by a quick transition by Miami.
Miami ended with 17 shots to 10 for Cincinnati, six on target. After an even first half, Miami controlled the expected-goals mark, with 4 to 1.6 for the home team.
First half highlights
Messi scored from close range in the 24th off a turnover by Matt Miazga. Miazga tried to pass to a teammate on the side but the pass went straight to Messi.
He had a goal in the fifth minute waved off by offsides.
In the 32nd minute, Cincinnati won a corner kick, which Evander placed right in front of the goal line but the ball was cleared away.
In the 42nd minute, a Kevin Denkey penalty kick tied it up. Denkey drew the PK after collecting a good pass into the box by Pavel Bucha and being grabbed by Gonzalo Lujan. Denkey converted for his team-high eighth goal of the season.
The first half was tied 1-1 and virtually even on statistics. Both sides had seven shots, one on goal, and 1.1 expected goals. Neither keeper made a save.
What’s next for FC Cincinnati?
Cincinnati heads to the West Coast to play San Diego FC 9:30 p.m. Saturday, May 16. It is the first meeting between the teams. San Diego, 3-5-4 for 13 points, was set to play Austin later May 13. Cincinnati will leave for California on May 14.
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