The Miami Dolphins will be without their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, for the next few weeks at least which means they’ll now turn to their backup, Skylar Thompson, in hopes that he can help keep their playoff hopes alive.

Thompson will make his first start of the season on Sunday when the Dolphins head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks, who have got off to a 2-0 start under new head coach, Mike McDonald.

Can Thompson keep the Dolphins in this game or will the Seahawks run away with the victory to improve to 3-0? Let’s find out what the oddsmakers think and then I’ll attempt to predict the final score for this interconference showdown.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Despite the Dolphins starting their backup quarterback, money has come in on Miami to cover the spread, causing the line to move down from Seahawks -6.5 to Seahawks -4.5 since Monday night. A two-point line movement in that time tells us “sharp” bettors believed the line at the start of the week was an overreaction to the news that Thompson would be starting, and therefore bet it until the sportsbooks moved it down to where it sits now.

The total has also increased one point from 41.5 to 42.5.

I bet on the Dolphins on Monday night when the line was at +6.5, but I still think they’re the side to bet at the current line. I broke down why in this week’s edition of the “Road to 272 Bets”:

Skylar Thompson will start for the concussed Tua Tagovailoa, which is the reason the line (was) set at Miami +6.5, but I think the current line is an overreaction to the injury news. The Dolphins still have the offensive weapons to compete with Seattle, even if Thompson is the one getting them the ball.

I’m not yet sold on how good the Seahawks are this season with wins against the Broncos and Patriots through the first two weeks, the latter victory coming in overtime. They have yet to face a team with the offensive talent of Miami which makes me hesitate to lay almost 6.5 points on them.

I’ll take a risk with the Dolphins backup to keep this game relatively close.

In terms of the total, I actually don’t agree with it increasing by a point compared to the opening number. The Seahawks offense, albeit playing against inferior competition, has been strong through the first two weeks of the season, keeping their opponents to just 4.0 yards per play, the second best mark in the NFL.

The Dolphins’ defense has also been better than people expected. They faced a couple of strong offensive teams in the first two weeks but still rank around middle of the NFL in most defensive metrics.

I think the Seahawks ultimately win the game, but it’ll be a low-scoring affair and the Dolphins will do enough to cover the spread.

Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 21, Dolphins 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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