October just doesn’t feel like October unless the Florida State Seminoles face the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. The rivalry has been streaky of late, with FSU winning seven in a row between 2010 and 2016, Miami taking the next four, and FSU now currently on a three-game win streak. Mario Cristobal is still searching for his first victory over FSU as a head coach, and Mike Norvell looks to make another strong statement in South Florida.

Florida State vs. Miami

Date: 10/26/24

Location: Hard Rock Stadium

Previous matchup: 27-20 FSU

All-time series: 33-35

Miami: Team Preview

2023 record: 7-6 (3-5 conf)

Two things to know:

• A: Despite its 2023 record, Miami still had a productive offense when it wasn’t turning the ball over. The Canes finished second in the ACC in total offense last season and brought in some highly-rated transfers this offseason at quarterback, running back, and offensive line.
• 2: Speaking of the transfer portal, Cristobal brought in 15 transfers this offseason, six of whom are rated four-stars by 247Sports. Miami brought in 17 transfers the offseason prior. Kinda pokes a hole in Cristobal’s argument about Miami’s homegrown talent versus FSU not developing its own high school signees.

Three key players:

• A: QB Cam Ward. Miami won the Ward sweepstakes when the former Washington State quarterback spurned the NFL Draft and decided on one more year in college. Including two seasons at Incarnate Word, Ward has thrown for nearly 14,000 yards and 119 touchdowns. He’s a trendy dark horse Heisman pick and should put up high numbers with targets like Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George.
• 2: RB Damian Martinez. The Oregon State transfer is a bruiser who has a knack for breaking tackles. He ran for 1,185 yards and nine touchdowns on 194 carries last season (sharing a backfield with FSU quarterback DJ Uiagalelei) and behind Miami’s offensive line, Martinez should be among the top yardage-producing backs in the ACC.
• D: DL Reuben Bain. Particularly painful due to his history as a FSU recruit, Bain is simply a stud. Last season as a true freshman he racked up 44 tackles and 7.5 sacks and forced three fumbles, all while playing through various injuries. If Bain is healthy, he’s a problem for any offensive lineman facing him.

Florida State vs. Miami: Game preview, predictions

Best Case

FSU comes out strong, punching the Canes in the mouth on the first defensive series and scoring a touchdown on the resultant offensive drive. FSU keeps the Miami defense on its heels with strong and balanced playcalling, limits penalties, and stays ahead of schedule. The defense smothers Martinez and forces Ward into several poor decisions, capitalizing on turnovers. The 17 Cane fans in attendance witness a beatdown as the Canes quit in the third quarter and South Florida recruits from the 2025 cycle through the 2029 cycle personally witness the widening gap between the two programs. After all, you can’t spell quit without the U.

Realistic Case

Miami has Louisville on the road the prior weekend, while FSU will come into South Florida on the heels of a Friday night tilt at Duke. Each team should be reasonably healthy, with both utilizing bye weeks on October 12. The rivals trade punches and mistakes before settling in. FSU has the advantage as far as in-game coaching is concerned, while both squads have a lot of talent. The trenches and turnover margin will likely decide this one, with a close game more likely than a blowout.

Worst Case

A combination of injuries, bad luck, and bad weather combine for a Saturday from hell, and FSU’s winning streak is broken in brutal fashion. A Miami win would have ramifications in the standings and on the recruiting trail.