Hurricane Francine on collision course with Louisiana, set to make landfall Wednesday afternoon

Francine is now on a collision course with Louisiana, set to make landfall on Wednesday afternoon. Mandatory evacuation orders are out for multiple parishes in Louisiana as state and local leaders urge people to prepare for the storm’s fury.

BATON ROUGE, La. – Francine became a hurricane Tuesday evening as it barreled toward south Louisiana, strengthening over extremely warm Gulf waters as those in possible harm’s way rushed to complete storm preparations, filling sandbags, buying gas and stocking up on necessities for an expected landfall in the coming day.

Residents, especially in south Louisiana, have a 24-hour window to “batten down all the hatches,” Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry warned at midday while Francine was still a tropical storm.

The freshly minted Category 1 hurricane packed top sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and forecasters warned it was expected to crash ashore Wednesday afternoon or evening in Louisiana with a potentially life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds — perhaps even as a Category 2 storm with winds of 96 to 110 mph (155 to 175 kph).

Ahead of the storm’s approach, lifelong New Orleans resident Roxanne Riley, 42, gathered water, snacks and other food from a Walmart and said she planned to stay at a family member’s house on high ground to avoid flooding. But she was ready to evacuate if things got worse.

“It’s very frustrating every time a storm comes in,” Riley said. “I’ll just make sure my car is ready to roll in case I need to go by tomorrow. I’m going to keep on checking to see what it’s looking like.”

By 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Francine was centered about 350 miles (560 kilometers) southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, and was moving northeast at 10 mph (17 kph), the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.

A hurricane warning was in effect along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of New Orleans, according to the center. A storm surge warning stretched from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Alabama-Florida border Such a warning means there’s a chance of life-threatening flooding.

Once Francine makes landfall, Landry said, residents should stay in place rather than venturing out onto the roads and risk blocking first responders or utility crews working to repair power lines.

Helping Francine gain hurricane status Tuesday night were the Gulf’s exceedingly warm late-summer waters.

Water temperatures are about 87 degrees (31 degrees Celsius) where Francine is located, said Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

“The ocean heat content averaged over the entire Gulf is the highest it’s been on record for the date,” McNoldy wrote on his blog.

In downtown New Orleans during the day, cars and trucks were lined up for blocks to collect sandbags from the parking lot of a local YMCA. CEO Erika Mann said Tuesday that 1,000 bags of sand had already been distributed by volunteers later Tuesday.

“I love that these are community people that came out,” Mann said. “It’s a beautiful effort to do what we do in New Orleans, we’re resilient and we come together to help in the times we need each other.”

One resident picking up sandbags was Wayne Grant, 33, who moved to New Orleans last year and was nervous for his first potential hurricane in the city. The low-lying rental apartment he shares with his partner had already flooded out in a storm the year before and he was not taking any chances this time around.

“It was like a kick in the face, we’ve been trying to stay up on the weather ever since,” Grant said. “We’re super invested in the place, even though it’s not ours.”

A little over three years after Hurricane Ida trashed his home in the Dulac community of coastal Louisiana’s Terrebonne Parish – and about a month after he finished rebuilding – Coy Verdin was preparing for another hurricane.

“We had to gut the whole house,” he recalled in a telephone interview, rattling off a memorized inventory of the work, including a new roof and new windows.

Verdin, 55, strongly considered moving farther inland, away from the home where he makes his living on nearby Bayou Grand Caillou. After rebuilding, he said he’s there to stay.

“As long as I can. It’s getting rough, though,” he said. He was preparing to head north to ride out Francine with his daughter in Thibodaux, about a 50-minute drive away. “I don’t want to go too far so I can come back to check on my house.”

Landry said the Louisiana National Guard is being deployed to parishes that could be impacted by Francine. They are equipped with food, water, nearly 400 high-water vehicles, about 100 boats and 50 helicopters to respond to the storm, including possible search-and-rescue operations.

Francine is the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. There’s a danger of life-threatening storm surge as well as damaging hurricane-force winds, said Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the hurricane center.

There’s also the potential for 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain with the possibility of 12 inches (30 centimeters) locally across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning, Reinhart said. That heavy rainfall could also cause considerable flash and urban flooding.

Francine is taking aim at a Louisiana coastline that has yet to fully recover since hurricanes Laura and Delta decimated Lake Charles in 2020, followed a year later by Hurricane Ida. Over the weekend, a 22-story building in Lake Charles that had become a symbol of storm destruction was imploded after sitting vacant for nearly four years, its windows shattered and covered in shredded tarps.

Francine’s storm surge on the Louisiana coast could reach as much as 10 feet (3 meters) from Cameron to Port Fourchon and into Vermilion Bay, forecasters said.

“It’s a potential for significantly dangerous, life-threatening inundation,” said Michael Brennan, director of the hurricane center, adding it could also send “dangerous, damaging winds quite far inland.”

He said landfall was likely somewhere between Sabine Pass — on the Texas-Louisiana line — and Morgan City, Louisiana, about 220 miles (350 kilometers) to the east.

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Associated Press writers Curt Anderson in St. Petersburg, Florida, Kevin McGill and Jack Brook in New Orleans contributed to this story.

Editor’s note: Read Tuesday’s updates on Francine as the storm takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Francine, which formed Monday, has taken a slow, meandering path across the Gulf. It’s now gathering speed and taking direct aim on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, with landfall expected there sometime on Wednesday.

“Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through this afternoon, and then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a midday Tuesday forecast. Towns closest to the location of expected landfall include Morgan City and Houma, Louisiana.

New Orleans should brace for major flooding rain, winds of up to 73 mph, the possibility of tornadoes and 3-5 feet of storm surge, the local weather service office said Tuesday. The city, infamously ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was just to the east of Francine’s worst impacts, according to Tuesday forecasts.

After landfall, the storm’s center is expected to move into Mississippi “on Wednesday night or Thursday.”

As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually pushes inland across Louisiana, an increased threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and considerable flash flooding is anticipated, the hurricane center warned.

As Francine neared, authorities called for a mandatory evacuation of residents in three coastal communities, schools were shut and officials distributed sandbags.

Tropical Storm Francine tracker

What’s causing Francine to move north?

Other weather systems are shoving Francine around: An approaching trough of low pressure over Texas should cause Francine to turn northeast at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 hours, “and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening,” the hurricane center said.

“After landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States.”

Louisiana no stranger to storms

The most recent hurricane to hit Louisiana was Ida in 2021, AccuWeather said. “Between 2019 and 2021, Louisiana had eight tropical storms or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida,” noted Alyssa Glenny, AccuWeather meteorologist, in an online report.

Heavy rain and inland flood threat

Along with the threat from strong winds and storm surge comes the threat for heavy rainfall:

“Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are forecast across much of central and eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday night, the National Weather Service said.

Francine spaghetti models

Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.