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Betting on Kentucky basketball to win it all? Two sportsbooks hope it doesn’t happen

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Betting on Kentucky basketball to win it all? Two sportsbooks hope it doesn’t happen


LEXINGTON — Kentucky basketball winning its ninth national championship would be a dream come true for the team’s fervent fan base. It also would be the worst nightmare for two of America’s largest sportsbooks.

The Wildcats are the biggest liability for BetMGM and DraftKings. At BetMGM, UK leads the country in ticket percentage (the percent of total bets) at 11.6 and is second in handle percentage (the percent of total money) at 13.0, trailing only defending national champion UConn (14.6%), with both figures as of Monday. Kentucky is tops nationally in both categories at DraftKings, with 18% of tickets and 24% of the handle at the beginning of this week.

Not surprisingly, those numbers are even more pronounced in the Bluegrass State. More than 70% of bets made within Kentucky at BetMGM are on the Wildcats to win it all, accounting for 75% of the total money wagered. Those percentages are even higher at DraftKings: 75% of bets in Kentucky are on coach John Calipari’s team to capture the 2024 NCAA Tournament title, which is 81% of the handle.

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Despite the abundance of bets placed on UK, there’s still value to be found, Steve Bittenbender said.

“For a futures market — where they’re winning the national title — I would recommend that for anyone,” said Bittenbender, a writer and analyst for BetKentucky.com. “I would recommend, though, that they do it within reason. Kentucky’s odds are quite lucrative, depending on which sportsbook you go to.

“And the great thing with futures odds are, you get the odds as they’re set at that time. So if you come in and take the bet at 30-1, you’re locked into those 30-1 odds for the rest of the season. … If Kentucky comes through this year, it’s going to create a nice, sizable prize for (bettors) if they end up cutting the nets down in April.”

Because of how much roster turnover the Wildcats normally experience each year, Bittenbender admits they’re “tough to judge” as a bettor.

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“But, at the same time, you’ve got to look at who Kentucky brings in. They’re always bringing in a top (recruiting) class,” he said. “You’re not looking at players at the bottom of the top 50 or anything like that. You’re looking at the elite of the elite. So that helps in some respects.”

While the Wildcats’ national championship odds vary — from 22-1 at BetMGM and DraftKings to 35-1 at FanDuel — Bittenbender has a theory: He believes their odds, year in and year out, “probably are a little shorter” than a team of a similar profile.

“Just because of the backing that they have, anyone who’s a Kentucky fan is probably going to bet on Kentucky to win the national title — especially here in Kentucky,” he said. “I think there are very few who don’t think Kentucky’s a national contender each and every year. … That might affect (a sportsbook that says), ‘OK, instead of being 20-1, we’ll bump them down to a 15-1 shot just to decrease our liability a little bit.’”

Drilling into wagering on specific UK games, Bittenbender highlighted arguably the team’s defining trait: its high-flying offense. The Wildcats average nearly 90 points per game, which ranks third in Division I. Because of that, Bittenbender said “the over always is in play” when Kentucky takes the court.

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But he cautioned UK fans “who live and die with each loss” to take a deep breath.

Let cooler heads prevail before placing a wager.

“If you go on (X, the platform formerly known as) Twitter to post, ‘Fire Calipari’ or something like that, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that you bet on Kentucky,” he said. “But if you’re able to withstand the losses and understand that’s how a season goes, then I would have no problem saying, ‘OK, go ahead and bet on your team to win.’”

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.



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Kentucky Basketball vs. Florida viewing info, what to watch for, and predictions

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Kentucky Basketball vs. Florida viewing info, what to watch for, and predictions


What an up-and-down season it has been for Kentucky Basketball, as shown by just the last two games: A dominating win over Vanderbilt, where the Wildcats led for 38+ minutes, followed by a double-digit loss to Texas A&M just 72 hours later, allowing a 27-3 run.

While locked in an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats are playing for seeding, likely a 6-7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and anywhere from a 4-10 seed in the SEC Tournament. The last game of the regular season to ultimately decide the latter is the SEC regular-season champion, the Florida Gators.

Already having played once this season, Kentucky trailed by as many as 17 points in the first 10 minutes, but fought back to make it a five-point game in the second half.

Can the Wildcats put together a full 40 minutes together, avoid a season sweep for the first time since 2018, and guarantee themselves a bye in the SEC Tournament?

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Here’s what to watch for in Kentucky vs. Florida, Part II.

While Florida has one of the best frontcourts in the country, one of the deciding factors in the first game was the backcourt play, as Xavian Lee and Urban Klavzar, who had two of their best performances of the season and combined for 41 points.

At this point of the season, the correlation of Kentucky’s success and the play of Otega Oweh, Collin Chandler, and Denzel Aberdeen is pretty clear. Coming off a game against Texas A&M, where they combined for 36 points, on 11-30 shooting, they need to outplay Florida’s backcourt for Kentucky to have a shot at the upset.

Given their elite frontcourt, Florida looks to give their big men plenty of touches around the basket and attack the basket for offensive rebounding opportunities. As a result, they draw fouls at one of the highest rates in the nation, nearly 20 a game.

In the first matchup, Kentucky had four players with four or more fouls, including Brandon Garrison, who fouled out. This limited Malachi Moreno to just 21 minutes, still having a team-high 11 rebounds. Backing him up, Garrison had as many fouls (5) as points, rebounds, and blocks combined.

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Kentucky will likely face foul trouble again, and with a limited frontcourt, Mark Pope has the option of playing Malachi Moreno through foul trouble or hoping for better production from the other bigs. Pope has shown that he would rather go with the latter. Fortunately, Mo Dioubate is coming off his best game of the season, and Garrison had one of his better performances, albeit against a smaller Texas A&M team. They will need to sustain some level of production to give Kentucky a chance against Florida.

Kentucky played well for the final 30 minutes of the first matchup, outscoring Florida 66-60 during that span. It was the first 10 minutes that were the issue, where they turned the ball over 9 times and put themselves into a 17-point deficit.

Whether it be slow starts, as in the Florida game, or tough mid-game stretches like against Texas A&M, too often Kentucky puts itself in a hole with turnovers. Mark Pope has said it, turnovers are a great indicator for this team. When keeping turnovers in the single digits, Kentucky is 11-2; when that number rises to 10 or more, it is just 3-9 against power opponent teams.

Thomas Haugh 6-9, 215 lbs

  • 17.1 PPG
  • 6.0 RPG
  • 17 points and 8 rebounds vs UK on 2/14/26

Reuben Chinyelu 6-10, 265 lbs

  • 11.7 PPG
  • 4.1 APG
  • 22 points, 4-7 3P vs UK on 2/14/26
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET on March 7th
  • Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, and Dick Vitale will call the action.
  • Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
  • Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  • Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
  • Rosters: UK | UF
  • Stats to Know: UK | UF
  • KenPom: UK | UF
  • Team Sheet: UK | UF
  • Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so please check back later for those. The analytics have Kentucky as the underdog, giving them anywhere between a 1-3 and 1-4 chance. ESPN is the most positive in Kentucky’s chances, at a 37.2% chance to win. EvanMiya (32.3%), KenPom (29%), and BartTorvik (27%) trail behind, all within five percent of each other.
  • Predictions: The analytics show the most favorable scenario is a five-point loss, with Haslametrics (80-75) and EvanMiya (81-76) projecting that. BartTorvik and KenPom are both in agreement with a seven-point loss, 81-74. Florida is playing like a title contender, riding a 10-game win streak, while Kentucky is struggling to string back-to-back wins. With Florida’s higher level of play, I am taking them to win 85-76.

Sound off in the comments section on how you think this matchup will go.



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Kentucky Bill Filed to Legalize Fixed-Odds Wagering

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Kentucky Bill Filed to Legalize Fixed-Odds Wagering


The legalization of fixed-odds wagering is part of a comprehensive gaming and wagering bill filed March 4 with the Kentucky House of Representatives. 

Rep. Matt Koch, a Republican from Paris, and Rep. Michael Meredith, a Republican from Oakland, are sponsors of HB 904, which creates a form of betting that sets the payout odds at the time a wager is placed and those odds do not change.

Wagering on horse racing in Kentucky is now only pari-mutuel, the traditional form for the sport in which gamblers bet against each other and odds are determined based on how much is wagered on a specific bet—for example, win, place, or show—compared with the total money in the wagering pool.

With pari-mutuel wagering, the odds change as money enters the pool and has become a sore spot with many gamblers because these changes can be dramatic due to the introduction of computer-assisted wagering. CAW betting is a form of wagering that uses computer algorithms to formulate selections and then push those bets through to pari-mutuel pools, up to six bets per second in the final minute before pools are closed. This last-minute deluge of wagers can cause a horse’s odds to fall, for example, from 8-1 as they are loading into the gate to 3-1 as the race unfolds and the tote system catches up with calculating the late wagers.

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Offering fixed odds is seen as one solution and has already been adopted in New Jersey, Colorado, and in West Virginia last April.

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“This basically puts it in hands of the tracks to test the waters,” said Koch, who is the co-founder of Shawhan Place in Bourbon County. “As the gambling market continues to expand, we’re exploring ways to give tracks the flexibility to introduce new and engaging products. For many who enjoy wagering, consistency is key. They want the confidence of knowing a horse’s odds will remain steady throughout the race, allowing them to enjoy the experience to the fullest. However, we recognize the uncertainty that a new product brings and want to be particularly mindful of its potential impact.”

As part of the legalization of fixed-odds wagering, the bill creates a “purse stabilization fund” that will be supported by excise taxes and fees from fixed-odds wagering. Licensed tracks would pay 15% on the adjusted gross revenue of fixed-odds wagers placed on-track and via advance-deposit wagering websites and mobile applications. This fund will be used to supplement purses at live horse racing meets annually at an amount not to exceed 10% of the fund.

“This is similar to how other states manage the revenue from fixed odds and protects the traditional purse pools,” Koch said.

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Additionally, Koch said having outdated totalizator networks contributes to the frustration with CAW, so HB 904 includes a provision for licensed totalizator companies and licensed racetracks to accelerate the adoption of improved technologies for wagering systems and provide “commercially reasonable access to the betting odds for retail bettors by April 1, 2027.”

“Some of these totes are only updating every 30 seconds and that is contributing to the perception and frustration,” he said, referring to bettors seeing late odds changes. “Doing our research, we realize there are things we can do for tracks to update their totes and have those updated odds in seconds. We need to stay on top of the IT and that needs to be an ongoing deal.”

The bill also includes a prohibition against any track or association licensed to conduct horse racing, sports wagering, or fantasy sports being affiliated with or benefiting from any entity that offers prediction market contracts. 

Prediction market operators are a growing concern for the gambling industry because they have expanded from taking wagers on the outcome of future events, such as elections or new events, and are now including sporting events, such as horse racing. The prediction markets defend their business by claiming to take “contracts” and not “wagers.”

The threat of the prediction markets was addressed by Churchill Downs Inc. CEO Bill Carstanjen during a Feb. 26 conference call with investors and analysts and is the subject of a panel discussion this week during the National Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association’s annual conference being held at Oaklawn Park.

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READ: Prediction Markets Have the Racing Industry’s Attention

Other provisions of HB 904 include:

  • After Nov. 1 of a calendar year, the Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Corporation may authorize additional racing dates or make changes to racing dates awarded if requested by a licensed association, supported by the applicable horsemen’s group and “deemed in the best interest of racing.”
  • Creates a new section that legalizes and puts the regulation of fantasy contests under the authority of the Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Corporation. Fantasy contests are simulated games or contests with an entry fee and awards or prizes established prior to the contest. Participants compete against each other and manage a fictional roster of actual athletes and obtain scores based on real-life performances. If adopted, all fantasy contest operators must be licensed by the state and adhere to regulations that include preventing fraud and money laundering, prevent underage participation, verify customers are geographically located in jurisdictions allowing fantasy contest participation, and comply with state audits and any complaints or allegations of prohibited conduct.
  • Sets the legal age to participate in sports betting, fantasy contests, and charitable gaming at 21 but keeps the legal age for betting on horse racing at 18.





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Northern Kentucky claims 4 titles at Class 3A indoor track state meet

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Northern Kentucky claims 4 titles at Class 3A indoor track state meet


The Kentucky High School Athletic Association indoor state track meet rolled on on Wednesday, March 4. One day after Beechwood claimed the Class 1A boys team title, three Northern Kentucky big schools combined for four individual state titles in Class 3A.

Cooper’s Paul Van Laningham won the 3,200-meter run in 9:09.49 and took second place in the 1,600-meter run in 4:07.88. It was a reversal of his results at the 2025 indoor state meet and earned him his fifth overall state title. He scored all of Cooper’s points, good for ninth place in the team standings with 18 points.

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Van Laningham’s teammate, Ava Dunn, got the day started with a shot put title, throwing the 8.82-pound ball 39 feet, 3.25 inches.

Simon Kenton’s Alexis Howard won the long jump with an attempt of 18 feet, 7.25 inches, then claimed the triple jump title with a distance of 37 feet, 4.25 inches. It is her second straight indoor long jump title and third overall as she also claimed the 2024 outdoor title. Taking fifth place in the 55-meter dash, she scored all 24 points for SK, finishing in a tie for eighth place. Cooper was right behind with 22 points.

Finally, Conner’s Avery Vanlandingham win the 800-meter run in 2:17.55, out-leaning North Oldham’s Millie Huang at the line.



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