Georgia Tech is less than two weeks away from kicking off their 2024 season with a huge overseas matchup against defending ACC Champion Florida State. The Seminoles are favored heading into that game, but Georgia Tech has a huge opportunity for an upset and to show they could be contenders in the ACC.

One of the best power rating and predictive ranking systems out there is ESPN College Football analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+. Today, Connelly released the final SP+ rankings heading into the 2024 season and Georgia Tech is going to start the season ranked No. 58, with the No. 33 projected offense, the No. 94 projected defense, and the No. 68 projected special teams unit. I think it is obvious that if Georgia Tech’s offense remains at this projected level and there is a serious improvement on defense, this ranking is going to go up during the season. Head coach Brent Key has been very complementary of the defensive line so far during fall camp and it appears they are making needed progress. They will have to show it on the field though.

What exactly is SP+? Here is how Connelly himself describes it:

“As always, these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Whom do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don’t have coming back? That’s loosely what we ask when we’re setting expectations for a team; it’s also what these projections attempt to do objectively.

As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

Here is how the ACC ranks in SP+ heading into the season:

1. Florida State (No. 12 Nationally)

2. Clemson (16)

3. Miami (19)

4. SMU (27)

5. NC State (29)

6. Louisville (31)

7. Virginia Tech (36)

8. North Carolina (40)

9. Duke (51)

10. Cal (52)

11. Georgia Tech (58)

12. Pitt (66)

13. Syracuse (67)

14. Boston College (73)

15. Wake Forest (74)

16. Stanford (77)

17. Virginia (78)

I would argue that Georgia Tech belongs above Cal, North Carolina, Duke, and SMU. I think the Mustangs are ranked way too high based off of their success in a lower conference and could struggle in their first year in the ACC. Duke has a chance to be one of the worst team’s in the ACC in the first year under Manny Diaz, Cal has questions when it comes to their passing game, and North Carolina has big questions at quarterback and on defense.

Here is how Georgia Tech’s opponents rank in SP+ heading into 2024:

1. Georgia (1st Nationally)

2. Notre Dame (9th)

3. Florida State (12th)

4. Miami (19th)

5. NC State (29th)

6. Louisville (31st)

7. Virginia Tech (36th)

8. North Carolina (40th)

9. Duke (51st)

10. Syracuse (67th)

11. Georgia State (106th)

VMI is of course not listed.

As if you needed any more confirmation that Georgia Tech has a tough schedule, only two of their 11 opponents ranked in SP+ are ranked lower than they are. You can certainly argue that teams like North Carolina and Duke should not be ranked above them and teams like NC State and Louisville are not far ahead of Georgia Tech. Still, this team is projected to face eight top 40 opponents according to SP+. The Yellow Jackets have their work cut out for them when it comes to making another bowl game.