Georgia’s economic growth could slow down in the new year, University of Georgia economists predict, but Georgia could fare better than the nation as a whole, even as questions loom about the financial policies of President-elect Donald Trump.
The state’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4% next year, down from 3.1% this year, said Terry College of Business Dean Ben Ayers at a 2025 Georgia Economic Outlook presentation in Atlanta Friday. Nationwide, Ayers expects the growth rate to slow from 2.5% on average to 1.6%
“On the positive side, we’re expecting again the state of Georgia to outperform the nation,” he said, speaking to a crowd of business leaders at the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta. “And the slowdown that we’re expecting will be smaller here in the state of Georgia.”
Ayers said the major driver of the slowdown is the Federal Reserve’s 2022 efforts to constrain lending to control inflation. Inflation has dropped from 8% to 3% since then, and the rate is expected to stay at 3% in 2025. The inflation rate at the start of 2020 was 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The risk of a recession beginning in 2025 is about one in four, Ayers predicts, which is higher than the baseline of one in six, but an improvement over this year’s odds, which were one in three. Potential risk factors for a recession include an energy price shock, stock market crash or expansion of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Georgia’s unemployment rate is expected to average 4% next year, higher than this year’s 3.7%, but still better than the expected national average of 4.3%.
New jobs are also expected to shrink, from about 1.5% growth to about 1%, again better than the expected national rate of .6%.
If you’re looking for work in healthcare home building, 2025 could be the year of your big break
A growing and aging population is expected to bolster healthcare hiring around the state, while lower mortgage rates, favorable demographic trends and a lingering housing shortage should mean plenty of jobs for home builders.
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The number of single-family homes in Georgia is set to go up by 9%, but if you’ve been waiting to buy a home, you may have to keep waiting – home prices, which have increased by 65% since the pandemic, according to UGA, are expected to hold steady.
Those who work in retail or in information may be at greater risk as competition from online retailers and technological advances squeeze those sectors.
The Trump Factor
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to support policies that could reshape the economy in a big-league way, including tariffs on imported goods that economists warn could make the stuff Americans buy more expensive.
Economist John Silva did not call out Trump by name, but said that if those proposed tariffs become reality, Americans could pay more for products that are not naturally found in the U.S., including auto parts, clothing and types of lumber used for building homes.
“What do tariffs do? They basically raise the price,” said Silvia, Florida-based CEO and founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy. “In the short run, your inflation numbers accelerate because you calculate year over year, but in the long run, prices stay higher than what they were originally. This presents a problem.”
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“We don’t produce bananas in Georgia, OK?” he added. “And except for Hawaii, we don’t produce coffee in the United States. So you’re going to put a tariff on all these goods, and then someone walks into the grocery store and it says ‘Honduran bananas, plus 15 cents for your tariff.’ How’s that going to work?”
Trump also pledged to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. What his actual immigration policy looks like could spell weal or woe for industries like agriculture and construction, Silvia said.
“We’re not gonna get the job done if you’re gonna tell me all these immigrants have to leave,” he said. “It’s not gonna happen, and it’s not gonna happen in Texas, it’s not gonna happen in California. So what are we going to get in terms of an immigration policy? It has to be somehow defined over the next six months to a year, and that policy’s going to define our agricultural output and our manufacturing and construction output over the next two to five years.”
This story was provided by WABE content partner the Georgia Recorder.
Welcome to the Daily Briefing. Here’s what’s breaking this morning:
Nicole Fallert here, wishing I were frolicking in this superbloom. Wednesday’s headlines begin with a Georgia special election and then we’ll talk about that Team USA World Baseball Classic loss.
Who will replace Marjorie Taylor Greene?
Trump-endorsed Republican Clay Fuller, a former prosecutor, came in second among a field of more than a dozen candidates in Georgia’s special election on Tuesday to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from the U.S. House of Representatives in January after months of clashing with the president.
Retired Brigadier General Shawn Harris, one of just three Democrats on the ballot, topped the votes after consolidating most of his party’s support. But neither candidate received the required threshold under Georgia law of more than 50% to win outright. That means the two are headed for an April 7 runoff election.
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Mississippi also had a primary election on Tuesday. See the results.
And this all begs the question: Can Trump run both a war and a midterm campaign at the same time?
More news to know now
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Don’t miss your flight! Americans are enduring long wait times as a partial federal government shutdown strains staffing at the Transportation Security Administration. Check these resources before waiting too long to leave for the airport.
It’s been six years since the COVID-19 pandemic began. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Here’s a look back at what happened since.
Dunk!
NBA history made
Miami Heat’s Bam Adebayo scored 83 points on Tuesday against the Washington Wizards. Yes, 83. That’s the second-most points scored in an NBA game, surpassing late Basketball Hall of Famer Kobe Bryant.
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Something to talk about
Italy just upset USA baseball
Team USA suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in World Baseball Classic history, 8-6 to Italy in front of a stunned crowd at Daikin Park on Monday. Now, they must rely on Italy to beat Mexico on Wednesday night, or hope a tiebreaker works in their favor.
Before you go
Have feedback on the Daily Briefing? Shoot Nicole an email at NFallert@usatoday.com.
Polls have closed in the Georgia 14th Congressional District special election to elect who will replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress.
The seat has been vacant since January, when Greene resigned following a monthslong public fight with President Trump over foreign policy issues and the release of documents involving the Jeffrey Epstein case. A week before she announced her plans to resign, Mr. Trump said he would support a primary challenge against her.
Twenty-two candidates filed to run for the seat, but the number dropped to 17 candidates — 12 Republicans, three Democrats, one Libertarian, and one independent — all of whom appeared on Tuesday’s ballot.
Among the top candidates are former District Attorney Clay Fuller, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump, former Republican state Sen. Colton Moore, and Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired Army brigadier general who lost to Greene in the 2024 race for the seat.
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Harris has raised more than $4.3 million for the race, with about $290,000 in the bank.
Greene has declined to endorse anyone in the race.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene talks to reporters after meeting privately with House Speaker Mike Johnson as he wrestles with a spending bill to fund the government, at the Capitol on Jan. 12, 2024.
J. Scott Applewhite / AP
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Georgia voters enthusiastic to choose their representative
Voters in Rome, Georgia, said they expect to return and vote in what is likely to be a runoff election because of the number of candidates.
“Too many people that think they’re politicians — some I know personally that has no experience, that, you know, Washington would just swallow them up like it does most people,” one voter said.
“What I look for in a candidate is tell me your policies. That’s the problem that I have with both sides today,” another voter said. “They attack each other, they hate each other, and they don’t ever get around to telling you what their actual policies are.”
Despite voters saying they planned to return to the ballot box, Floyd County Republican Vice Chair David Guldenschuh said the complicated schedule had party heads worried.
“There’s real fatigue out there, and I sense and feel for them,” he said.
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A crowded field of candidates has made a runoff in the Georgia special election likely.
CBS News Atlanta
Still, Guldenschuh said he doesn’t feel like the crowded field would hurt the GOP’s chance to hold the seat that Greene once occupied.
“I think that, you know, we have an unusual situation here. We all appreciated and loved Marjorie. And when she and Trump had the falling out, we still supported both here in this district, even though they weren’t getting along very well. And still are, as I understand,” he said. So I do know that this district is very solid conservative, and from Floyd County north, it’s really conservative. So I don’t see a big change going on now.”
Vincent Mendes, the chair of the county’s Democratic Party, expected Harris to get to the runoff, but said it would take effort to flip the seat.
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“We will have to work our butts off to make him win if he gets to a runoff, but that’s how we should treat every single election,” Mendes said.
A local race with national implications
CBS News Political Director Fin Gómez said this special election is about more than just one seat in Congress. It’s being watched by politicians across the state and around the nation as an early indicator of where the Republican Party and its voters stand right now.
Gómez said this race could offer one of the first real tests of Mr. Trump’s influence within the party, with the president throwing his support behind Fuller.
The results could show whether the Republican base is still fully aligned with him after his rift with Greene.
The key question, according to Gómez: Does the president still have the influence that he did back in 2024?
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“I do think that if Clay Fuller does well, even if he doesn’t clear the threshold that’s needed to avoid a runoff, I think that bodes well for the president, because that means Republican voters are still adhering to what the president says, and it shows the influence that that the president still has on the Republican Party, including in northwest Georgia,” he told CBS News Atlanta.
If another candidate, such as Moore, pulls off a win, it could signal the Republican base isn’t always following the president’s lead.
“If Fuller does not when I think it would surprise a lot of the Trump faithful who really adhere to who he supports in these type of elections, but if, let’s say, if it doesn’t go Fuller’s way and Moore picks off this win, I think what you are seeing is that the base might be a little more unpredictable, similar to what we saw perhaps in 2010.”
A ‘Vote Here’ sign in front of a polling station at Tabernacle Baptist Church in Hiram, Georgia, US, on Tuesday, March 10, 2026.
Elijah Nouvelage / Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Special election marks start of busy campaign stretch
With how crowded the field is, it is very likely that this will be only the first step to choosing Greene’s replacement. Georgia’s special election rules require a candidate to win a majority of votes. If that threshold is not met, the top two candidates will go on to the April 7 runoff.
Whoever eventually wins the seat will serve out the rest of Greene’s term — a relatively short time in office. If they want to remain in the seat, they’ll have to run again in the May 19 party primaries. That race could possibly go to a party runoff, which would take place on June 16. The winners of the primaries will advance to the general election in November.
Last week, 10 Republicans, including Fuller and Moore, qualified to run in November’s election for a full two-year term. Harris also qualified, the sole Democrat who did in what has been rated as the most Republican-leaning district in Georgia by the Cook Political Report.
Mr. Trump carried the 14th Congressional District with 68% of the vote in the 2024 election, with Greene receiving over 64%. Republicans want that rightward trend to continue in the district. Democrats are hoping that the potential GOP infighting and crowded field could help them secure a surprise electoral win, shrinking the already-narrow margins in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republicans currently control 218 House seats to the Democrats’ 214.
People cheer for President Trump en route to his speaking engagement at the Coosa Steel Corporation on Feb. 19 in Rome, Ga. Trump delivered remarks on the economy and affordability as the state started voting to replace the seat vacated by former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
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ATLANTA — Voters in Northwest Georgia are choosing who should replace former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Voting closes in the district’s special election on Tuesday night.
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The election will test the weight of President Trump’s endorsement of one of the candidates in a crowded race. Some voters say the president’s choice is not who they think would best support the conservative MAGA movement championed by both Trump and Greene.
Greene resigned at the beginning of this year, leaving Georgia’s 14th Congressional District without representation in Congress — and slimming the GOP’s majority in the House — following a bitter split with Trump.
Greene rose to prominence over five years in office as a strong ally of Trump, bombastically attacking critics and pushing the MAGA movement’s “America First” policy. Yet the two had a very public clash after she pushed for the release of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Greene has also been sharply critical of Trump’s actions abroad, saying he has strayed from his promises to focus domestically.
With Trump now in the second year of his second term, other high-profile spats with key parts of his MAGA coalition have erupted over his administration’s handling of other issues, including sweeping tariffs, immigration policy and more. More recently, rifts have emerged over the war with Iran.
Some, like Greene, argue that though Trump helped create the “America First” worldview, he is not the sole arbiter of what it looks like.
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Most of the GOP candidates in the special election have said they want to focus on Trump’s priorities and the concerns of their district, rather than become headlines themselves — an approach they say Greene embraced in her public disputes with Democrats and even with members of her own party.
“The difference between Marjorie and I is I will not use the press to become a celebrity,” Republican Star Black said during a candidate forum on Feb. 16. “I will use the press to actually show what I have done — the accomplishments,”
Trump has endorsed Clay Fuller, a district attorney in northwest Georgia for the state’s Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit. He emphasized his support last month during a visit to Rome, part of the state’s 14th District, where he held a rally to tout his administration’s economic policy.
Fuller called himself a “MAGA warrior” at the event.
Republican congressional candidate Clay Fuller (left) shakes hands with President Trump as he arrives on Air Force One at Russell Regional Airport on Feb. 19 in Rome, Ga.
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“I really like him,” said rally attendee Jill Fisher. “I think he’s a strong candidate, seems like a very nice family man with some great values. And I think he’ll add a lot to Congress.”
Highlighting Fuller’s military service as an Air Force veteran, an ad for his campaign says, ” ‘America First’ is the story of his life.”
Fuller faces several other GOP candidates in the primary, including former state Sen. Colton Moore. Moore won elections for the state Legislature in the district before and is considered one of the most right-leaning lawmakers at the state level.
“I’m 100% pro-Trump,” Moore declared in his campaign announcement video.
He’s made a few headlines of his own. Last year, Moore was arrested for attempting to enter the House chambers in Atlanta to attend the State of the State address by GOP Gov. Brian Kemp. Moore argued he had a constitutional right to enter the chamber. Moore had been banned from entering the chambers by the state’s Republican House Speaker Jon Burns for disparaging comments he made about a late Georgia lawmaker at his portrait unveiling.
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Moore’s record matters for some GOP voters even more than Trump’s endorsement. Less Dunaway,14th district voter, says he’s a strong supporter of Trump, but thinks Moore will do a better job carrying out the president’s agenda than Trump’s own pick.
“He actually knows what he’s doing,” Dunaway said of Moore. “He was a state representative, a state senator. He was the first one to fight the people over the 2020 election in Georgia.”
Moore was one of a group of GOP state lawmakers who called on lawmakers to investigate or impeach Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis after she charged Trump and others with trying to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia, when Trump and his allies pushed baseless claims of widespread election fraud.
Fuller insists Trump made the right choice in supporting his bid.
“I think they’re looking for someone to carry President Trump’s banner, support his agenda, and fight for him on Capitol Hill,” Fuller told Georgia Public Broadcasting last month.
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Still some Republicans who attended the February rally left undecided.
“I don’t just blindly follow what [Trump] says,” said Clay Cooper of Rome.
Still, Cooper said that Trump’s endorsement means he will give Fuller more thought. “[Fuller is] someone that [Trump] thinks aligns very much with his messaging, with his actions, so that certainly weighs in,” Cooper said.
Unlike a partisan primary, all the candidates — Republicans, Democrats and third party candidates — will be on the same ballot for voters in the special election. If no one gets over 50% of the vote, the two top vote-getters regardless of party will advance to a runoff on April 7.
Follow the results below as polls close on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET.