Georgia’s economic growth could slow down in the new year, University of Georgia economists predict, but Georgia could fare better than the nation as a whole, even as questions loom about the financial policies of President-elect Donald Trump.
The state’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4% next year, down from 3.1% this year, said Terry College of Business Dean Ben Ayers at a 2025 Georgia Economic Outlook presentation in Atlanta Friday. Nationwide, Ayers expects the growth rate to slow from 2.5% on average to 1.6%
“On the positive side, we’re expecting again the state of Georgia to outperform the nation,” he said, speaking to a crowd of business leaders at the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta. “And the slowdown that we’re expecting will be smaller here in the state of Georgia.”
Ayers said the major driver of the slowdown is the Federal Reserve’s 2022 efforts to constrain lending to control inflation. Inflation has dropped from 8% to 3% since then, and the rate is expected to stay at 3% in 2025. The inflation rate at the start of 2020 was 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The risk of a recession beginning in 2025 is about one in four, Ayers predicts, which is higher than the baseline of one in six, but an improvement over this year’s odds, which were one in three. Potential risk factors for a recession include an energy price shock, stock market crash or expansion of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Georgia’s unemployment rate is expected to average 4% next year, higher than this year’s 3.7%, but still better than the expected national average of 4.3%.
New jobs are also expected to shrink, from about 1.5% growth to about 1%, again better than the expected national rate of .6%.
If you’re looking for work in healthcare home building, 2025 could be the year of your big break
A growing and aging population is expected to bolster healthcare hiring around the state, while lower mortgage rates, favorable demographic trends and a lingering housing shortage should mean plenty of jobs for home builders.
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The number of single-family homes in Georgia is set to go up by 9%, but if you’ve been waiting to buy a home, you may have to keep waiting – home prices, which have increased by 65% since the pandemic, according to UGA, are expected to hold steady.
Those who work in retail or in information may be at greater risk as competition from online retailers and technological advances squeeze those sectors.
The Trump Factor
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to support policies that could reshape the economy in a big-league way, including tariffs on imported goods that economists warn could make the stuff Americans buy more expensive.
Economist John Silva did not call out Trump by name, but said that if those proposed tariffs become reality, Americans could pay more for products that are not naturally found in the U.S., including auto parts, clothing and types of lumber used for building homes.
“What do tariffs do? They basically raise the price,” said Silvia, Florida-based CEO and founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy. “In the short run, your inflation numbers accelerate because you calculate year over year, but in the long run, prices stay higher than what they were originally. This presents a problem.”
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“We don’t produce bananas in Georgia, OK?” he added. “And except for Hawaii, we don’t produce coffee in the United States. So you’re going to put a tariff on all these goods, and then someone walks into the grocery store and it says ‘Honduran bananas, plus 15 cents for your tariff.’ How’s that going to work?”
Trump also pledged to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. What his actual immigration policy looks like could spell weal or woe for industries like agriculture and construction, Silvia said.
“We’re not gonna get the job done if you’re gonna tell me all these immigrants have to leave,” he said. “It’s not gonna happen, and it’s not gonna happen in Texas, it’s not gonna happen in California. So what are we going to get in terms of an immigration policy? It has to be somehow defined over the next six months to a year, and that policy’s going to define our agricultural output and our manufacturing and construction output over the next two to five years.”
This story was provided by WABE content partner the Georgia Recorder.
ATLANTA — Georgia Republicans are getting antsy. As U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff dominates the nation in fundraising and makes his case to voters, three Republicans who want his spot are still competing among themselves for their party’s nomination.
This week’s election frenzy in Texas didn’t help. After President Donald Trump declined to help clear the field with an endorsement, Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are primed for a bitter and expensive runoff that could sap resources needed in more competitive states.
Trump has since promised to choose between the two of them, but he hasn’t said when he’ll make an announcement or whom he’ll support. And there’s no sign that the president is ready to get involved in Georgia’s primary on May 19, meaning Republicans there could be on course for a similar predicament.
“I’d like to have as many days as I can to focus the public’s attention on the choice between our nominee and Sen. Ossoff,” said state party chair Josh McKoon. “Assuming that President Trump does not weigh in, it seems like it is more likely than not that we will have a runoff.”
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Each of Georgia’s three main Republican contenders — Rep. Mike Collins, Rep. Buddy Carter and former football coach Derek Dooley — has positioned himself as the best person to help Trump in Washington. Trump could almost certainly anoint a winner if he wanted to use his influence.
“It is the gold standard of the party,” said Faith & Freedom Coalition chairman Ralph Reed. “It’s the strongest endorsement I’ve ever seen in my career.”
Ossoff sees political advantage in the competition for Trump’s support.
Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., speaks before Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, Sept. 24, 2024, at the Johnny Mercer Theatre Civic Center, in Savannah, Ga. Credit: AP/Evan Vucci
“My opponents have already made clear they will be Donald Trump’s puppets,” Ossoff said in a speech this week at Georgia’s capitol.
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The non-endorsement looms over race
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, warned in an interview with The Washington Examiner last month that the wide primary field could end in a general election loss in Georgia.
“We need to get it down to one candidate as soon as possible,” Scott said. “And if we are able to do so, we have a chance to be successful there. But as long as we have three candidates, it’s going to be tougher for us.”
Republican strategist and Collins ally Stephen Lawson warned that Ossoff “continues every day going unscathed.”
Derek Dooley, a Republican candidate for Senate in Georgia, attends an Atlanta Young Republicans campaign event, Feb. 12, 2026, in Atlanta. Credit: AP/Alyssa Pointer
“I do think there has to be some sense of urgency on settling on a candidate and clearing the field sooner rather than later,” he said.
Collins has a long list of endorsements in the state, and he’s backed by the Club for Growth, a nationally influential conservative advocacy group. He describes himself as the “America First MAGA candidate.”
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However, he also facing an ethics complaint from a congressional watchdog accusing his policy adviser and former chief of staff of improperly hiring his girlfriend as an intern even though she didn’t complete assigned work. Collins has called the complaint “bogus.”
Carter said in an interview this week that “I’m the one without any baggage.”
A political fixture in southeast Georgia, Carter says he’s a “MAGA warrior.” He has called for expanded immigration enforcement in the state despite criticisms of aggressive tactics elsewhere.
As Republicans compete with each other, Ossoff has been boosting his cash advantage. The senator has over $25.5 million on hand. Meanwhile, Collins has $2.3 million, Dooley has $2.1 million, and Carter has $4.2 million, including many of his own dollars.
However, McKoon said he’s confident Republican donors will coalesce around a winner and help them catch up.
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Trump ‘wants to win’
Trump has a mixed track record on endorsements, particularly in Georgia. In 2021, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler lost to Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock. In 2022, Warnock beat football star Herschel Walker.
Carter noted that Republicans have a narrow majority in the House, including Collins and himself, and guessed that Trump doesn’t want to jeopardize that.
“The president really is probably going to sit this one out,” Carter said.
Collins flattered Trump’s endorsement record, saying he has “always had the impeccable ability to put his name on someone at the right time to get the most bang for his buck.”
Candidates aren’t just trying to convince voters they align with Trump — they’re also trying to convince the president that they would come out on top in November. That’s what matters most to Trump, Reed said.
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“The only thing that drives Trump more than finding candidates that are loyal both philosophically and personally is identifying and getting behind candidates that can win,” Reed said. “He wants to win.”
The value of Georgia products sold overseas surpassed $60 billion last year, state officials said.
Georgia was ninth in the U.S. for exports in 2025, propped up by its logistics infrastructure of the world’s busiest airport, an extensive railroad network and the ports of Brunswick and Savannah (pictured). (Courtesy of Georgia Ports Authority 2024)
Despite a barrage of new tariffs imposed across the globe, Georgia saw another record year for international trade in 2025.
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Total trade last year reached nearly $211 billion, up almost 6% from 2024. Imports, subject to many tariffs enacted by the Trump administration, made up most of that activity, growing about 3% to more than $150 billion, according to a state report released Thursday.
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Georgia’s top exported product in 2025 was civilian aircraft and ancillary parts, such as Gulfstream’s G500 and G600 aircraft seen on the assembly line in Savannah in December. (Hyosub Shin/AJC)
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Amy Wenk is the consumer brands reporter for the AJC.
Amy Wenk is the consumer brands reporter for the AJC.
Cal entered tonight’s matchup against a destitute Georgia Tech side dusting themselves off from an unexpected loss to a middle of the road Pitt team. The Golden Bears were looking to stay on the bubble of the NCAA tournament, while Tech, who finished last in ACC play, were simply trying to finish out their season with pride. This game marked the beginning of what will prove to be a long road trip for the boys from Berkeley.
Tech came out red hot from 3, thanks to forward Kowacie Reeves, who went 5-8 from behind the arc in the first half, while the entire Cal team was 0-12. His 19 points provided the difference in a first half with long stretches where neither team could put the ball in the basket.
Cal were frustrated early offensively, with Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames held scoreless in the first half. Lee Dort proved his offensive value, as the highest scorer for the Bears in the first half, particularly finding success in the paint, and they started the second half off feeding him early inside with some success.
The Bears opened the second half strong, finding ways to run their sets and get more players looks around the basket. Simultaneously, Camden began to find his shot from three, and things began to fall into place for a Cal side that was already having a decent night on the boards.
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Georgia Tech could not keep pace once Cal’s offense found a rythm, though they would have to do so without any scoring contributions from Justin Pippen, who went 0-7 from the field, but closed out the night with eight assists and two rebounds.
Ultimately, Tech’s 18 turnovers, and Cal’s persistence gave way to a Bears lead that wouldn’t be overcome. The Yellow Jackets did not have an answer for Lee Dort’s efforts in the paint, and when Dai Dai Ames found his footing on offense, eventually the game was all but finished. Despite a valiant effort, the Yellow Jackets could not maintain an offensive pace or defensive effort to keep up with Cal, who face Wake Forest this Saturday in another must win.
