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UGA economists peer into crystal ball and see slowing Georgia economy in 2025

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UGA economists peer into crystal ball and see slowing Georgia economy in 2025


Georgia’s economic growth could slow down in the new year, University of Georgia economists predict, but Georgia could fare better than the nation as a whole, even as questions loom about the financial policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

The state’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4% next year, down from 3.1% this year, said Terry College of Business Dean Ben Ayers at a 2025 Georgia Economic Outlook presentation in Atlanta Friday. Nationwide, Ayers expects the growth rate to slow from 2.5% on average to 1.6%

“On the positive side, we’re expecting again the state of Georgia to outperform the nation,” he said, speaking to a crowd of business leaders at the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta. “And the slowdown that we’re expecting will be smaller here in the state of Georgia.”

Ayers said the major driver of the slowdown is the Federal Reserve’s 2022 efforts to constrain lending to control inflation. Inflation has dropped from 8% to 3% since then, and the rate is expected to stay at 3% in 2025. The inflation rate at the start of 2020 was 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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The risk of a recession beginning in 2025 is about one in four, Ayers predicts, which is higher than the baseline of one in six, but an improvement over this year’s odds, which were one in three. Potential risk factors for a recession include an energy price shock, stock market crash or expansion of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Georgia’s unemployment rate is expected to average 4% next year, higher than this year’s 3.7%, but still better than the expected national average of 4.3%.

New jobs are also expected to shrink, from about 1.5% growth to about 1%, again better than the expected national rate of .6%.

If you’re looking for work in healthcare home building, 2025 could be the year of your big break

A growing and aging population is expected to bolster healthcare hiring around the state, while lower mortgage rates, favorable demographic trends and a lingering housing shortage should mean plenty of jobs for home builders.

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The number of single-family homes in Georgia is set to go up by 9%, but if you’ve been waiting to buy a home, you may have to keep waiting – home prices, which have increased by 65% since the pandemic, according to UGA, are expected to hold steady.

Those who work in retail or in information may be at greater risk as competition from online retailers and technological advances squeeze those sectors.

The Trump Factor

On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to support policies that could reshape the economy in a big-league way, including tariffs on imported goods that economists warn could make the stuff Americans buy more expensive.

Economist John Silva did not call out Trump by name, but said that if those proposed tariffs become reality, Americans could pay more for products that are not naturally found in the U.S., including auto parts, clothing and types of lumber used for building homes.

“What do tariffs do? They basically raise the price,” said Silvia, Florida-based CEO and founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy. “In the short run, your inflation numbers accelerate because you calculate year over year, but in the long run, prices stay higher than what they were originally. This presents a problem.”

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“We don’t produce bananas in Georgia, OK?” he added. “And except for Hawaii, we don’t produce coffee in the United States. So you’re going to put a tariff on all these goods, and then someone walks into the grocery store and it says ‘Honduran bananas, plus 15 cents for your tariff.’ How’s that going to work?”

Trump also pledged to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. What his actual immigration policy looks like could spell weal or woe for industries like agriculture and construction, Silvia said.

“We’re not gonna get the job done if you’re gonna tell me all these immigrants have to leave,” he said. “It’s not gonna happen, and it’s not gonna happen in Texas, it’s not gonna happen in California. So what are we going to get in terms of an immigration policy? It has to be somehow defined over the next six months to a year, and that policy’s going to define our agricultural output and our manufacturing and construction output over the next two to five years.”

This story was provided by WABE content partner the Georgia Recorder.



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Amid tariff and trade confusion, Georgia posted record exports in 2025

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Amid tariff and trade confusion, Georgia posted record exports in 2025


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The value of Georgia products sold overseas surpassed $60 billion last year, state officials said.

Georgia was ninth in the U.S. for exports in 2025, propped up by its logistics infrastructure of the world’s busiest airport, an extensive railroad network and the ports of Brunswick and Savannah (pictured). (Courtesy of Georgia Ports Authority 2024)

Despite a barrage of new tariffs imposed across the globe, Georgia saw another record year for international trade in 2025.

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Total trade last year reached nearly $211 billion, up almost 6% from 2024. Imports, subject to many tariffs enacted by the Trump administration, made up most of that activity, growing about 3% to more than $150 billion, according to a state report released Thursday.

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Georgia's top exported product in 2025 was civilian aircraft and ancillary parts, such as Gulfstream’s G500 and G600 aircraft seen on the assembly line in Savannah in December. (Hyosub Shin/AJC)

Georgia’s top exported product in 2025 was civilian aircraft and ancillary parts, such as Gulfstream’s G500 and G600 aircraft seen on the assembly line in Savannah in December. (Hyosub Shin/AJC)

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Amy Wenk

Amy Wenk is the consumer brands reporter for the AJC.



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Cal Men’s Basketball: Bears Stay Focused and Outlast a Beleaguered Georgia Tech 76-65

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Cal Men’s Basketball: Bears Stay Focused and Outlast a Beleaguered Georgia Tech 76-65


image courtesy of @CalMBBAll

Cal entered tonight’s matchup against a destitute Georgia Tech side dusting themselves off from an unexpected loss to a middle of the road Pitt team. The Golden Bears were looking to stay on the bubble of the NCAA tournament, while Tech, who finished last in ACC play, were simply trying to finish out their season with pride. This game marked the beginning of what will prove to be a long road trip for the boys from Berkeley.

Tech came out red hot from 3, thanks to forward Kowacie Reeves, who went 5-8 from behind the arc in the first half, while the entire Cal team was 0-12. His 19 points provided the difference in a first half with long stretches where neither team could put the ball in the basket.

Cal were frustrated early offensively, with Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames held scoreless in the first half. Lee Dort proved his offensive value, as the highest scorer for the Bears in the first half, particularly finding success in the paint, and they started the second half off feeding him early inside with some success.

The Bears opened the second half strong, finding ways to run their sets and get more players looks around the basket. Simultaneously, Camden began to find his shot from three, and things began to fall into place for a Cal side that was already having a decent night on the boards.

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Georgia Tech could not keep pace once Cal’s offense found a rythm, though they would have to do so without any scoring contributions from Justin Pippen, who went 0-7 from the field, but closed out the night with eight assists and two rebounds.

Ultimately, Tech’s 18 turnovers, and Cal’s persistence gave way to a Bears lead that wouldn’t be overcome. The Yellow Jackets did not have an answer for Lee Dort’s efforts in the paint, and when Dai Dai Ames found his footing on offense, eventually the game was all but finished. Despite a valiant effort, the Yellow Jackets could not maintain an offensive pace or defensive effort to keep up with Cal, who face Wake Forest this Saturday in another must win.



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Georgia Lt. Gov. candidate releases controversial ‘Sharia law’ video

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Georgia Lt. Gov. candidate releases controversial ‘Sharia law’ video


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In the days since the initial U.S. strikes in Iran, countless lawmakers stateside have weighed in on the Trump Administration’s decision to once again get involved in a conflict in the Middle East.

Prominent Georgia political figures like former representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and Senators Ossoff and Warnock have denounced the attacks, while candidates to replace MTG and others running in midterm elections have backed the president.

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Now, Georgia State Senator Greg Dolezal, who is running for Lieutenant Governor in November, has posted a controversial video to social media depicting a hypothetical scenario where an extreme version of what he calls “Sharia law” has taken over the United States.

“London has fallen. Europe is under siege. In America, the invaders who would rather pillage our generosity than assimilate are roaming Minnesota, New York and LA,” Dolezal said in the post. “As Lt. Governor, I will fight the enemy before they’re within the gates and keep Georgia safe and Sharia free.”

The video was marked with a content warning on X.

What does the video show?

The video, appearing to have been AI-generated, begins with two people walking toward a building and wearing head coverings, possibly hijabs, shaylas, Al-miras or khimars.

It then cuts to a man writing with frosting on a cake, possibly “Happy Easter,” but the letters are unclear. A figure dressed in all black runs into frame and slices the cake with a weapon like a Zulfiqar sword.

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It goes on to show military vehicles driving down the street, a woman being stopped from driving, a group of men in head coverings shooting weapons into the air and a suicide bomber vest, all while playing a song with the lyrics “No Sharia.”

(Warning: the video may be disturbing for some viewers.)

Video called ‘disgusting’ and ‘racist’

The video was met with significant criticism, including from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Geoff Duncan.

“This is disgusting. People wonder why I became a Democrat, it’s because of the inexcusable hatred spewed by so many Republicans like Greg Dolezal. Hate, including Islamophobia, has no place in Georgia,” Duncan wrote on X.

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Rev. James “Major” Woodall, Sr., of Atlanta, called the video “deeply racist.”

“As a Christian man who deeply loves Georgia, I pray you never become Lt. Governor,” Woodall wrote.

Emanuel Jones, of the state senate, called out his fellow representative and said “if you don’t know it yet, Georgia is better than this!!”

“We don’t need race baiting, fear mongering to get votes. Perhaps that (is) what the Republican Party has devolved into,” Jones said on X.

Dolezal got support, however, from MAGA personality Laura Loomer who commented “No Sharia!”

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The video has also been reposted more than 1,000 times as of 2 p.m. on March 4.

Who is Greg Dolezal?

The state senator represents District 27, and is based in Alpharetta. He was sworn in to the Georgia Senate in 2019.

He is a small business owner and attended North Park University.

Irene Wright is the Atlanta Connect reporter with USA Today’s Deep South Connect team. Find her on X @IreneEWright or email her at ismith@usatodayco.com.



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