TAMPA, Fla. – Brad Butler works long hours as a carpenter and home remodeler. He and his work partner spent three weeks and $6,000 of their own money updating a house in Dade City. But instead of getting paid for their work, they accepted a deal to rent the house at a discounted price of $1,400 per month for a year—because they could not find other options they could afford. After a year when the rent increases, they’ll look for other options. 

“I’m a very honest hard-working person, but it just doesn’t seem that the economy has it in it to make hard-working people successful right now,” said Butler.  “Prices have skyrocketed three times, I think. And just in this area.”

People who recently moved to the Tampa Bay area may not believe what houses used to cost. For example, in 1998, a three-bedroom waterfront home in St. Peterburg sold for $133,000. That was near the start of the tech boom, which helped ignite the housing crisis. 

Two years later, the tech boom crashed. Investors moved what was left of their fortunes into real estate, snatching up houses everywhere—but especially Central Florida. Real estate in our area had flown under the radar until the age of the internet revealed comparatively cheap homes (on or near the water) for the whole world to see. 

At the same time, banks lowered their standards—approving high-risk adjustable mortgages to high-risk buyers with lower credit scores— while investors flipped one home after another. Many starter homes got demolished and replaced by larger, more expensive homes—further reducing the supply of homes working class families could afford.  

Then, by 2008, those high-risk buyers stopped paying the soaring costs of the high-risk mortgages. Banks failed, the economy tanked and real estate dipped—but in the Tampa Bay area, houses still cost much more than they did ten years before. For example, the same house that sold for $133,000 in 1998, sold for $275k in 2009 at the end of the downturn.

The Great Recession and glut of foreclosures crushed home builders, reducing the supply of new homes as the economy recovered. 

“We did have a, a shortage of building for a while, especially in Florida after the market crash. You know, we were ground zero for the market crash. It took a long time for builders to get back online. A lot of builders went bust as well when that happened,” said St. Petersburg City Councilman Richie Floyd. 

Builders who kept going started building larger, more expensive homes for larger profits—increasing the shortage of starter homes. 

As millennials moved out on their own, they preferred urban living, which drove a movement from the suburbs to the spiraling costs of living in cities like Tampa, St. Pete, Clearwater, and Sarasota. 

Meanwhile, the government offered new tax credits for home buyers, and interest rates dropped. Warren Buffett advised his fellow mega investors to snatch up homes—saying he’d buy a couple hundred thousand himself if he could. They followed his lead by purchasing more houses, condos, and apartments across the nation—and Florida in particular. Large investors and corporations replaced small landlords and homeowners, and they charged soaring rents (especially in urban areas). 

Then President Trump signed new tax cuts on investment profits- fueling the real estate frenzy. 

Then the pandemic hit. Florida stood out for lifting lockdowns and restrictions before other states. That drove a flood of relatively wealthy newcomers eager to buy. 

“Post pandemic and during the pandemic, we saw this shift from high tax states to states like Florida, where people can work here and get the benefits of living here and that has only accelerated that challenge,” said Florida Policy Project and former Florida State Senator Jeff Brandes. 

A wave of hurricanes, a property insurance crisis, and a trend of millennials migrating south combined to burn working-class people who can’t find an affordable place to live- unless they really scrimp and live a long way from work. 

We don’t yet know the long-term impact of the Hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton. But studies like this one in Science Direct show hurricanes tend to drive Florida home prices up in the short term. 

“750 people are moving to Florida every single day. And there just isn’t enough housing being built to support that,” said Brandes. “And that’s kind of created the supply and demand challenge.”

STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 13 TAMPA:

Thanksgiving is next week, although Florida temperatures are making it hard to get into the holiday spirit.

Expect that to change very soon, as temperatures whipsaw close to 20 degrees down in some locations this week.

➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location

➤ Tropics watch, Nov. 18: Remnants of former Tropical Storm Sara could impact Florida

That’s right. A cold front is approaching and, depending on where you live in Florida, temperatures could drop more than 15 degrees this week overall and drop close to 20 degrees between daytime highs and nighttime lows.

Don’t expect freezing temperatures, though. The lowest temps in the state are expected across the Panhandle and North Florida and those are forecast to stay above 40.

Florida weather forecast: Temperatures dropping this week as cold front moves through

Timing: See what, when to expect as cold front moves through Florida

Western Panhandle: The cold front will clear the area Wednesday morning but as it approaches and moves through, expect:

• Rain: Expect the bulk of the rain after 3 a.m. Tuesday. While the heaviest rain is forecast to remain over the Gulf, “we still expect a fire hose of water to stream into the area Tuesday morning, with heavy rain prevailing through the afternoon hours. Widespread rainfall totals of 3-5 inches are possible with the higher amounts possible across our southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama counties,” according to the National Weather Service Mobile. Tuesday “will likely be one of the wettest days we have experienced in the past few months.”
• Wind: winds may get a little gusty at times Monday afternoon. Expect 20-25 mph gusts this afternoon over land.
• Small craft: Seas 7-plus feet as winds increase to 20-plus knots.
• Rip currents: Surf will build to 3-4 feet Monday, with 5-7 foot breakers Monday night and Tuesday.

Panhandle, Tallahassee, Big Bend: A few light showers through Monday afternoon, but the majority of the rain will arrive Tuesday morning as remnants of Tropical Storm Sara move north and interact with a cold front. “This appears to be our first taste of Florida fall weather.” Expect:

• Rain: 2-2.3 inches starting Tuesday, with a flash flood risk Tuesday through Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee. Locally higher amounts possible, especially across coastal counties. Across Big Bend, 1-2 inches most likely. A couple of severe storms, particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties, possible.
• Wind: Strong to severe wind gusts appear to be the main threat at this time.
• Tornadoes: A tornado or two cannot be ruled out along the Florida Panhandle coast.

Northeast Florida: Temperatures Monday are above normal for this time of year. The cold front is expected to move across Northeast Florida Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville. Expect:

• Rain: Rain chances increase after 1 a.m. Tuesday and continue until early Wednesday afternoon.
• Wind: Winds could gust as high as 16 mph Wednesday

Florida East Coast: Near to above normal high temperatures expected through mid week, with much cooler air expected late week behind the cold front. The front will move east-southeast over east central Florida mid week, according to the National Weather Service, Melbourne.

• Rain: Scattered to numerous showers capable of heavy rainfall. Rain chances increase late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain totals are expected to be .40-1 inch.
• Wind: Gusty winds up to 25 mph are forecast late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
• Boating: Boating conditions will deteriorate as the front approaches the local Atlantic waters Wednesday and will remain poor to hazardous into late week behind the front.
• Wind chill: Minimum wind chill values in the upper 30s to mid 40s are forecast each morning north of Martin and southeastern St. Lucie counties west of I-95.

South Florida: Moisture from the remnants of Sara will “likely congeal,” bringing a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, according to the National Weather Service Miami. Expect:

• Rain: Gusty squalls, brief heavy downpours.
• Boating: Atlantic waters 2-4 feet; Gulf waters 1-3 feet.
• Rip currents: A high risk for rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches.
• Coastal flooding: Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide along the Atlantic coast.

West Coast: Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be warm and rain-free, with temperatures running a handful ofdegrees above normal, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay. The coldest temperatures look to be Saturday and Sunday mornings after the cold front moves through. Expect:

• Thunderstorms: Chances of thunderstorms will increase toward the middle of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong storms are possible.
• Rip currents: The Gulf Coast could see rip current risk increase by mid-week.
• Coastal flooding: Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide along the Gulf coast.

Florida cold front: How low will temperatures drop?

Use the slider bar on the right side of the map to compare low temperatures expected Tuesday, Nov. 19, to temps on Saturday, Nov. 23.

Florida weather: Daily high temperatures will drop as cold front arrives

Use the slider bar on the right side of the map to compare high temperatures expected Tuesday, Nov. 19, to temps on Saturday, Nov. 23.

Weather alerts issued in Florida

Watches and advisories:

• Coastal flood advisory from 6 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. CST Tuesday.
• High rip current risk through Wednesday afternoon.
• High surf advisory from 9 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. CST Wednesday.

Forecast:

• Monday: High 78
• Tuesday: High 76; low 66
• Wednesday: High 72; low 50
• Thursday: High 63; low 49
• Friday: High 62; low 48
• Saturday: High 63; low 51

Follow National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 78
• Tuesday: High 77; low 68
• Wednesday: High 77; low 47
• Thursday: High 62; low 43
• Friday: High 62; low 48
• Saturday: High 64; low 44

Follow the National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 77
• Tuesday: High 80; low 67
• Wednesday: High 77; low 50
• Thursday: High 64; low 47
• Friday: High 63; low 45
• Saturday: High 65; low 46

Follow the National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 76
• Tuesday: High 81; low 69
• Wednesday: High 79; low 53
• Thursday: High 67; low 47
• Friday: High 66; low 46
• Saturday: High 66; low 49

Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 79
• Tuesday: High 84; low 71
• Wednesday: High 81; low 59
• Thursday: High 71; low 49
• Friday: High 70; low 49
• Saturday: High 70; low 51

Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 79
• Tuesday: High 84; low 69
• Wednesday: High 81; low 60
• Thursday: High 72; low 49
• Friday: High 70; low 48
• Saturday: High 71; low 50

Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 78
• Tuesday: High 79; low 75
• Wednesday: High 80; low 68
• Thursday: High 72; low 59
• Friday: High 71; low 58
• Saturday: High 71; low 61

Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 83
• Tuesday: High 83; low 71
• Wednesday: High 81; low 63
• Thursday: High 74; low 57
• Friday: High 74; low 56
• Saturday: High 73; low 55

Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 83
• Tuesday: High 85; low 70
• Wednesday: High 79; low 62
• Thursday: High 72; low 53
• Friday: High 73; low 51
• Saturday: High 73; low 52

Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter

Forecast:

• Monday: High 82
• Tuesday: High 82; low 72
• Wednesday: High 79; low 62
• Thursday: High 70; low 60
• Friday: High 72; low 56
• Saturday: High 70; low 55

Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter

Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

Excessive rainfall forecast

What’s next? 

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. 

A Florida man was arrested last week after state police said he pretended to be an undercover officer in order to avoid a background check.

William Dennis Milstead, 64, was charged with falsely impersonating a police officer, making a false statement to obtain property and using a two-way communication device to commit a felony, according to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.

Milstead was arrested after a real estate agency reported to the FDLE that he was attempting to lease a residential property without undergoing a background check.

MAN IMPERSONATING AS OFFICER FORCES WAY INTO ORLANDO HOTEL ROOM, ROBS WOMAN AT GUNPOINT: POLICE

Milstead submitted a falsified letter to the agency claiming that he was an undercover FDLE agent working “off-grid,” which is why he could not participate in a background check.

The fake letter, which had numerous grammatical, spelling and punctuation errors, was supposedly written by an assistant captain of the FDLE’s “Off Grid Command Unit” explaining why Milstead should be an exception to the real estate agency’s background check requirement.

GEORGIA MAN IMPERSONATING POLICE OFFICER PULLS OUT FAKE BADGE, ATTEMPTS TO ARREST REAL COPS

“We ask that you make an exception to limit the background/credit check on William Dennis Milstead due to the security needed to protect our agent safety and rely solely on this letter of recommendation from the FDLE and State of Florida,” the letter reads in part.

It claimed Milstead’s employment began with the FDLE in October 2006 and said he is “three years shy of reaching his 20th year retirement.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

The FDLE said Milstead has 13 prior felony arrests and was charged with impersonating an officer in 2002 and 2016.

William Milstead, 64, was also arrested for impersonating an officer in 2002 and 2016. (Florida Department of Law Enforcement)

Milstead was booked into the St. Lucie County Jail on Nov. 13 and was released on Nov. 15 after posting his $11,000 bond, jail records show.

The case is being investigated by FDLE’s Orlando office.