Neither the threat of wildfires nor catastrophic flooding have kept thousands of Americans from migrating to locations in Texas and Florida where extreme weather-related disasters are causing increasing damage year after year.

Between July 2022 and July 2023, nearly 69,000 people bought homes in frequent-flood counties in the Sunshine State — including Brevard, Manatee and Lee — according to a new analysis from Redfin. Another roughly 24,000 Americans became new residents in the heaviest flood-risk areas of Texas during that same time period — including in Brazoria and Fort Bend counties — the online real estate brokerage said. 

The inflow of new residents is happening as former residents are fleeing.

“Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change isn’t the top concern,” Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said in the report.

Part-time paradise at a steep price

Depending on where they move in the state, new residents in danger-prone areas in Florida should expect to find themselves in the path of a hurricane or other types of severe storms. 

Most recently, Hurricane Debby, the fourth-named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall on Monday near Steinhatchee, a tiny community in northern Florida with less than 1,000 residents. The hurricane so far has left nearly 300,000 Floridians without power, before being downgraded to a tropical storm.

Moving to Florida and Texas will also likely mean higher homeowners insurance for new residents, as natural disasters have caused  insurance companies to raise annual rates for coverage. 

Homeowners insurance rates have climbed 15% and 36% in Florida and Texas, respectively, between 2022 and 2023, according to data from S&P Global. One resident in Orlando, Florida, told CBS News in June that his home insurance grew to $6,000 from $1,500 a year for a 2024 policy. 

Asked by clients how much they will pay for homeowners insurance in Florida, Rafael Corrales, a Redfin real estate agent based in Miami, said he tells prospective homebuyers that it all depends on how close they want to be to the coast. 

“If you’re looking to buy a home in Florida, you should know that you can’t be close to the water without being in a flood zone,” Corrales said in a statement. “If you’re within three miles of the coastline, Mother Nature is going to pay you a visit,” he said, adding, “That’s the price you pay for living in paradise.”

From one wildfire state to another

Counties with a high risk of wildfires also saw an influx in new residents, with 63,365 more people entering high-fire-risk states in 2023 than the number of those leaving, according to Redfin. 

Leading the trend is Texas.

About 35,000 new residents migrated into wildfire-endangered areas of Texas — including Grayson, Hunt, Midland, Parker and Wise counties, the Redfin analysis shows. That contrasts with the approximately 17,357 Americans who have fled wildfire-prone counties in California — including Lassen, Solano and Napa. The exodus of California residents marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.

Texas has large swaths of undeveloped land that’s near developed land, making some parts of the state especially vulnerable to wildfires, Redfin noted. The Lone Star State had the second-largest number of wildfires last year — 7,102 — second only to California’s 7,364, Redfin said. One reason for the migration from one high-fire-risk area to another, according to the report, is cost of living.

 “For a lot of Americans, things like cost of living and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk, which can feel less immediate and more abstract,” Redfin’s de la Campa said. “But the cost-benefit calculus seems to be shifting in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an uptick in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news.”

After lashing the west coast of Florida all day Sunday with gusty winds, tropical downpours, and damaging storm surge, the eye of Hurricane Debby came ashore around daybreak Monday near Steinhatchee in Florida’s Big Bend, only 9 miles southeast of where Category 3 Hurricane Idalia came ashore just 341 days ago.

Though officially a Category 1 hurricane at landfall with sustained 80 mph winds, the hurricane brought Category 2 wind gusts to 98 mph Monday morning to nearby Horseshoe Beach as its center approached the coast. Moderate coastal flooding was ongoing at Cedar Key, about 50 miles southeast of Debby’s center, where a 6-foot storm surge coincided with the day’s lowest high tide.

To the west over the state capital of Tallahassee, winds gusted to 39 mph but Debby, like Idalia last August, spared the panhandle’s largest population center the brunt of its damaging weather.

Debby largely tracked east of the official forecast during the day yesterday, favoring the right side of the forecast cone from yesterday morning.

So far, Perry, Florida, to Debby’s west has picked up over half a foot of rain since late Sunday night and Debby’s blistering outer rainbands brought nearly a foot of rain to portions of the western peninsula during the day Sunday, including areas near Lakeland, Pinellas Park and Sarasota-Bradenton.

Farther south, Debby’s strong onshore flow contributed to a 2-to-4-foot storm surge Sunday afternoon that flooded some low-lying coastal locations in southwest Florida, including parts of downtown Fort Myers and Fort Myers Beach.

The worst of Debby is yet to come

The biggest concern as Debby moves inland is the major slowdown anticipated by tomorrow, as steering currents collapse, leaving the storm to rain itself out over parts of north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the coastal plain of South Carolina for the remainder of the week.

This is expected to bring up to 30 inches of rainfall to some places – historically high totals that could break state rainfall records in South Carolina and Georgia – and will likely contribute to widespread and potentially catastrophic flooding this week.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a high risk for excessive rainfall from tomorrow through Thursday morning stretching from north Florida into the coastal Carolinas, indicating the likelihood of severe and widespread flooding. While high risk rainfall outlooks are only issued for about 4% of days, they account for 80% of flood-related damages and more than a third of all flood-related fatalities.

What we’re following behind Debby

Beryl and Debby may only be the warm-up acts for the busy stretch of hurricane season ahead. As Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted, only 8 other hurricane seasons have observed two U.S. landfalling hurricanes this early in the season: 2020, 2005, 1959, 1936, 1934, 1916, 1909, and 1886, with most of these seasons especially destructive and impactful for the United States.

This week, we’re following a strong tropical disturbance now entering the eastern Caribbean. The system will be moving quickly through the Caribbean over the next few days, but models indicate possible development once it slows down later this week and into the weekend over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.

For now at least, steering patterns favor a trajectory to the south of South Florida and toward the western Gulf, but we’ll continue to monitor its progress. We still have some time to watch this one.

Significant flooding may be about to hit parts of Florida and Georgia. Over the weekend, Tropical Storm Debby developed and intensified in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, moving slowly northwards off the west coast of Florida. At the time of writing, forecast models were indicating that the storm was likely to develop into at least a category 1 hurricane before making landfall on Monday, with sustained winds in excess of 75mph. As the storm encounters the very warm coastal waters off western Florida, it may briefly develop into an even stronger storm.

The eye of the hurricane is expected to landfall around the Florida Big Bend region before crossing northern Florida, Georgia, into the eastern Carolinas, and into the Atlantic, during Tuesday and Wednesday. As well as potentially damaging winds, storm surge warnings are in place in coastal regions of Florida. Rainfall totals in excess of 10-20in (250-500mm) may lead to serious flooding across parts of northern Florida, south-east Georgia and South Carolina.

Japan has experienced significant heat recently with temperatures soaring into the high 30Cs in many areas and, last Sunday, temperatures neared 40C in Kyushu, the most southerly of Japan’s main islands. While daytime temperatures soar, across parts of eastern Japan in particular, the night-time minimum temperatures have remained very high, not dropping lower than the mid to high 20Cs. While the extreme heat is likely to continue for a few more days yet, there are signs of a drop in temperature from the middle of this week.

Following very warm or hot conditions across large parts of northern and western Europe last week, a large area of low pressure in the north-eastern Atlantic has, more recently, pushed cooler conditions across many northern European countries, a drop in temperature that has no doubt been welcomed at the Olympics in France. Through this week, hotter weather is likely to return to the Olympics with temperatures nearing 30Cs again in Paris later this week. However, for the final weekend and closing ceremony on Sunday, there looks to be a looming threat of thunderstorms once again.