After winning comeback thrillers in their respective Final Four games, the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars will be neck-and-neck from a betting perspective heading into the men’s college basketball national championship.

Florida opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Houston with the total opening at 141.5 for Monday night’s NCAA tournament championship game, according to ESPN BET odds.

With the two teams being so closely matched, this was far from a consensus spread and was already on the move just minutes after opening. DraftKings opened with Houston as the slight favorite before flipping the line to Florida -1. ESPN BET has already juiced Houston +1.5 to -125, indicating a move down to +1 could be imminent.

In a tournament characterized by chalk — a record 52 betting favorites have won games outright — Houston’s comeback win over Duke in the Final Four could be one of most shocking upsets of the 2025 event: According to ESPN BET, Houston’s live moneyline was as long as +2500 at one point during Saturday night’s contest.

The Blue Devils’ loss is likely causing a huge celebration for sportsbooks, who had massive liability on the team’s national championship futures.

“It was Duke coming into the tournament, and it’s still Duke heading into the Final Four,” ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said before Saturday. “They were our most-bet futures team all year, and their resounding performances have kept bettors backing them even as the price has shortened through the tournament. It’s Duke by a wide margin, followed by Florida.”

BetMGM also characterized Duke as its largest liability, with its next-closest hazards, Michigan State and St. John’s, having already been eliminated. Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader Patrick Berbert told ESPN that Duke winning the title would have been the “ideal outcome” for bettors, with the book being in “very good standing” with the Final Four’s other three teams.

Florida has also been a popular play among the betting public, but with sportsbooks adjusting to the Gators’ rapid ascendancy this season, it’s nowhere near the threat Duke posed.

“Florida was a loser headed into the tournament, but money going into the pot has made them now a non-loser. They’re a small winner for us now,” DraftKings head of sportsbook Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Houston [winning the championship] is good for us.”

Duke attracted the largest known future wager of the tournament, a $500,000 bet at +350 to net $1.75 million at BetMGM, but Florida and Houston have taken some big bets to win it all. BetMGM reports a $100,000 wager on the Gators at +900 and a $50,000 bet on the Cougars at +600.