Uncommon Knowledge
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The ongoing insurance crisis in Florida, fueled by the exodus of major insurers and the increased risk of extreme weather events, could trigger a downturn in the state’s real estate market, experts told Newsweek.
Homeowners in the Sunshine State currently pay the highest insurance premiums in the country. Floridians pay private insurers an average premium of about $6,000 a year, according to the latest data from the Insurance Information Institute, or Triple I, according to Barron’s and CNN Business, compared to the national average of $1,700.
Few people can self-ensure against the loss of their homes, and banks require an insurance policy to protect their collateral and provide a mortgage for a house.
The increasingly unaffordable cost of home insurance risks leaving residents uncovered, and thus unable to get a mortgage should they want to buy a new home, which could escalate to a statewide decline in the real estate sector.
“If you don’t have an insurance policy, it’s basically impossible to take out a mortgage,” Benjamin Keys, an economist and a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told Newsweek.
“And given the important role that financing plays in the housing market, without a functioning insurance market you don’t have a functioning mortgage market, you don’t have a functioning housing market.”
Because of the higher risk posed by climate change, which scientists expect will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in vulnerable states like Florida, “there are more people living in harm’s way, the severity of the disaster is more extreme and the cost of repairs has gone up,” Keys said. “A number of years with large storms and large claims has put some private insurers out of business and led others to simply leave the state.
“Insurers have also been really concerned that a portion of their elevated claims is due to fraud. And they were successful in pressuring the state Legislature to pass sweeping reform that makes it much more insurer-friendly on the fraud front. But in spite of these changes going through, insurers have not returned to Florida on any large scale.”
Between 2022 and 2023, more than a dozen private insurers left Florida, including Farmers Insurance, leaving many residents with a lack of options to insure their homes and considering “going bare,” going without any coverage on their properties.
According to Keys, “the private market for homeowner insurance has failed” in Florida.
“There’s a large gap in the market of homeowners who would like to have affordable policies from private insurers but are unable to find them and have to turn to a state-run entity called Citizen Property Insurance,” he said.
There are currently an estimated 1.3 million homeowners in the Sunshine State insured by Citizen Property, according to Keys.
Chicago-based real estate investor Sean O’Dowd thinks that the impact of the ongoing insurance crisis in Florida on the state’s real estate market depends on whether you believe the insurance premiums increases of the past couple of years are a blip or a trend.
“In my opinion, I strongly believe it’s a trend,” O’Dowd, who runs a real estate fund buying single-family homes in highly elite school districts and then renting the homes on 3-plus-year leases, told Newsweek.
“I’m an institutional SFR [single-family rental], I’ve spent a lot of time with the biggest institutional SFR players and they have given us explicit warning to stay away from Florida, and that if we buy portfolios in Florida, they won’t buy from us because they’re so negative on Florida in the long run, which is scary.”
CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images
That’s why O’Dowd believes that the current insurance crisis is going to have a “significant negative impact” on the Florida real estate market.
“There’s not a single lender out there that I’m aware of that will give you a mortgage without proof of insurance,” he said.
“The problem is, if you have an insurance payment that’s just as much as the principal and interest payment for the mortgage, if you’ve got an insurance payment that’s five hundred bucks a month, you get to a situation where a homebuyer—especially a first-time homebuyer that doesn’t have a lot of capital to put down for the down payment—has such a weedy monthly payment with this huge insurance premium that they cannot afford to buy a house.”
This is a situation that’s going to “flush a ton of buyers, especially first-time homebuyers and retirees on fixed income, completely out of the market,” O’Dowd said. The impact on the real market then is that homeowners would need to cut prices in order to sell, pulling down the market.
Homebuyers will be hurt by the crisis as much as homeowners, according to O’Dowd.
“Everything that I’ve been told and I’ve been seeing is insurance rates continue to rise, that makes the monthly payment substantially higher, that makes affordability a lot worse, that pushes down prices—with the one caveat of what happens with retirees who frequently buy in cash,” he said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Authorities in Florida are accusing a 51-year-old woman of shooting and killing two ex-husbands on the same day this week.
Susan Erica Avalon was arrested on Thursday on charges of second degree homicide in Manatee County, where her first ex-husband lived, according to Sheriff Rick Wells.
Police in Tampa, where Avalon’s second ex-husband lived, said detectives are working with the State Attorney’s Office to determine “what charges, if any, are applicable in the case.”
It all started on Wednesday afternoon when the Manatee County Sheriff’s Office received a call to respond to a shooting in the Heritage Harbor neighborhood, according to Wells. When deputies arrived, they saw a 54-year-old man with two gunshot wounds.
He was shot in the abdomen, Wells said in a press conference Thursday. “The victim at the time is still alert and is speaking to us.”
When deputies asked him who could have done this, the man responded, “possibly my ex-wife,” Wells said.
The man’s 15-year-old daughter was at the home and heard the shots, according to Wells. When she looked out the window, the teen spotted someone wearing a gray sweatshirt and a mask getting into a silver Honda Odyssey and driving off.”
“I want you to understand how traumatized she is,” Wells said of the 15-year-old, who is also Avalon’s daughter.
The 54-year-old man was taken to a local hospital, where he died of his injuries Wednesday night, according to the Manatee County Sheriff’s Office. Before dying, the man told authorities he was shot upon answering the door to his home.
Authorities believe Avalon showed up at the victim’s home posing as a food delivery driver, Wells said.
Court records from the Manatee County Clerk’s Office show Avalon and the 54-year-old man had been divorced for nearly a decade and had long been dealing with issues of child custody as well as child support disputes.
On Wednesday, investigators later located Avalon in her home in Citrus County, where they saw her wiping the silver Honda Odyssey vehicle with cleaning rags and bleach, Wells said.
When investigators told her they are there to speak to her about her ex-husband, she responded, “which one?” Wells said.
Investigators then began digging into Avalon’s second ex-husband, who lived in Tampa. The Manatee County Sheriff’s Office requested the help of the Tampa Police Department to check on the man and found he had been shot and killed in his home.
In a news release Thursday, the Tampa police said they believe the incident is related to “an ongoing homicide investigation being conducted by the Manatee County Sheriff’s Office.”
“Investigators are working to determine a motive, but it’s believed the shooter and victim are known to one another,” the news release reads.
Authorities believe Avalon first went to Tampa to kill her second ex-husband before heading to Manatee County and shooting her first ex-husband, the 54-year-old man, Wells said.
Avalon was arrested on Thursday by sheriff’s deputies in Citrus County, where she lives, on an out-of-county warrant, jail records show.
NBC News could not find an attorney listed for Avalon as of Saturday.
Wells said his office’s ongoing investigation is focused on finding the murder weapon and searching Avalon’s vehicle for evidence.
“That’s our goal right now,” he said.
A crazed Florida divorcee was thrown behind bars after allegedly gunning down both of her ex-husbands in separate broad-daylight shootings on the same day, police said.
Susan Avalon, 48, was cuffed Wednesday and slapped with murder charges after blasting one ex-hubby with bullets in Tampa, then traveling more than 50 miles to Manatee County to fatally shoot the other later that day around 3 p.m., according to Manatee County Sheriff Rick Wells.
Investigators said Avalon was embroiled in bitter custody battles with her former spouses, which they believe may have sparked the cold-blooded killings.
“It doesn’t get anymore brazen than this,” Wells told reporters at a press conference Thursday.
“We believe this was premeditated. She knew what she was doing, it was planned and she came here to kill her ex-husband.”
Police said the alleged murderess targeted her first husband — a 54-year-old man she divorced roughly 11 years ago — at his Manatee County home around 2:55 p.m., luring him to open his front door with stolen food from a Panera Bread before shooting him twice.
The unidentified man was rushed to a nearby hospital, but succumbed to his injuries later that day.
Surveillance footage captured Avalon walking into the nearby bread eatery and swiping food from the delivery pickup shelf without paying before heading to her ex-husband’s home, authorities said.
Her live-in boyfriend allegedly told police she had recently tracked down her ex-hubby’s address.
The ex’s reportedly had ongoing custody disputes and about $4,000 in unpaid child support, with Avalon facing a looming deadline to pay $200 or lose her driver’s license.
Investigators tracked her silver Honda Odyssey back to her Citrus County home after the shooting and found her scrubbing the minivan with bleach and rags. But when asked by police about her ex-husband, she chillingly replied, “Which one?”
“We only know of one,” Wells said.
“We start to dig into this second ex-husband that we know nothing about, and we find she was married again after the marriage to our victim, and that this ex-husband lives in Tampa.”
Wells said investigators alerted Tampa authorities, who conducted a welfare check at the second husband’s Frierson Avenue home and found him dead inside with multiple gunshot wounds. The back door was also damaged, suggesting forced entry, he added.
Officials have not disclosed the second victim’s name or age, but believe Avalon allegedly killed him first.
The alleged killer, who was previously arrested on child abuse charges in Virginia in 2004, was charged with second-degree homicide in Manatee County. Wells said he is working with prosecutors to have that charge upgraded to first-degree murder and the death penalty.
Avalon, who reportedly has five children between both slain ex-husband’s, also faced two other child abuse cases in Tampa and Pasco County that were later dropped.
She has not yet been charged in the Tampa shooting as police continue their investigation.
Avalon is currently being held at Citrus County Detention Facility in Lecanto.
Pope Leo XIV on Friday named the Rev. Manuel de Jesús Rodríguez, currently pastor of a predominantly Hispanic church in the Queens borough of New York City, as bishop of Palm Beach, Florida.
The diocese is home to the Mar-a-Lago estate of President Donald Trump, whose get-tough immigration policies have drawn objections from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.
Rodriguez has been a staunch advocate for migrants, which make up most of his 17,000 congregants at the Our Lady of Sorrows church — the largest parish in the Diocese of Brooklyn, which also oversees churches in Queens.
“I never, never, never expected anything even close to this,” Rodriguez told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Friday from Palm Beach, where he was visiting a homeless shelter.
“I’m even a little bit scared. But I trust in God’s assistance,” he said. “One thing I can tell you is that this diocese is a diocese of hard-working priests and hard-working people, and I’m here to help.”
The Diocese of Palm Beach comprises about 260,000 Catholics and 54 parishes and missions. On its website, the diocese said that Rodriguez will be ordained and installed at a future date during a Mass at the Cathedral of St. Ignatius Loyola.
Rodriguez was born in the Dominican Republic and ordained to the priesthood in 2004, in the capital, Santo Domingo. He led the Our Lady of Sorrows parish in the mostly Latino Corona neighborhood of Queens when more than 100 of its parishioners died from COVID-19.
Earlier this year, Rodriguez joined numerous faith leaders across the U.S. expressing their concern about how the immigration crackdown launched by Trump’s administration had sown fear within their migrant-friendly congregations.
In his new assignment, he will lead the diocese where Mar-a-Lago — Trump’s vast south Florida estate — is located. Trump has called the resort the “Center of the Universe.”
“The president is doing really good things, not only for the United States, but for the world. But when it comes to the migrant, the immigration policy, we want to help,” Rodriguez said. “We want to assist the president as a church because we believe that we can do better … than the way we’re doing this right now.”
Some church leaders have condemned Trump’s immigration crackdown, saying it targets parishioners without a criminal record who are now too scared to leave home to attend Mass, buy food or seek medical care.
At many immigrant parishes, U.S.-born children have parents in the country illegally. Some of these parents have signed caregiver affidavits, which designate a legal guardian, in hopes their children stay out of foster care in case they are detained.
“When it comes to enforcing immigration laws, we shouldn’t be enforcing them by focusing on deporting 5-year-olds, 12-year-olds, 9-year-old kids, people that have never committed any crime. So, we’re here to help. We’re willing to help, and God willing, we will,” Rodriguez said.
Rodriguez said he’s in line with the Catholic Church, which staunchly defends the rights of migrants, even as it acknowledges the rights of nations to control their borders.
“The Church’s position about this important and urgent matter has been made crystal clear by the bishops of the United States,” he said.
The Vatican announced Rodríguez’s appointment the day after it shared that Pope Leo had accepted the resignation of conservative Catholic Cardinal Timothy Dolan who led the New York archdiocese and also had ties to Trump, including praying at his inauguration earlier this year and being appointed to his Religious Liberty Commission.
On some issues, such as greater inclusion for LGBTQ+ people, U.S. bishops are divided. But on immigration, even conservative Catholic leaders stand on the side of migrants.
During their general assembly earlier this year, U.S. bishops issued a rare “special message” criticizing the Trump administration’s mass deportation of migrants and their “vilification” in the current migration debate. It also lamented the fear and anxiety immigration raids have sown in communities, and the denial of pastoral care to migrants in detention centers.
U.S. Catholic bishops shuttered their longstanding refugee resettlement program after the Trump administration halted federal funding for resettlement aid.
Rodriguez said the church will always be ready to defend the dignity of poor people and migrants, who over generations, “have contributed to the growth of the United States.”
“Migrants are not to be demonized … Good migrant people that are here to work hard for their families — they share many of our core values,” he said. “They’re to be not to be rejected and treated harshly but instead, they’re to be treated respectfully and with dignity. So, that’s the idea, and Pope Leo is backing us up in this.”
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Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
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