For the first time in recent memory, the University of Florida heads into a football season a decided underdog in eight of its twelve games. DraftKings places the over/under on win total for the Gators at a paltry 4.5. Pundits from Bristol, Conn. to Atlanta look ready to play a dirge for a season that hasn’t started yet.
As a result, a palpable sense of worry flows through the fanbase. Cursed with an unbelievably tough schedule, the Gators, in the eyes of many, appear headed for a disastrous 2024 season. Yet, something feels different. No one told the football team that their season ended before it started. Ignore those folks and enjoy the games ahead.
The Schedule
Make no mistake, Florida will play a brutal schedule against some of the SEC’s top teams. During the month of November, Florida plays Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. Not to mention, Tennessee and Texas A&M show up early in the season.
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On paper, all of these teams possess top-tier offenses, defenses, and coaching. Their rosters bubble over with blue-chip prospects and All-Americans. Correspondingly, NFL scouts representing all thirty-two franchises will attend these matchups. In a way, the schedule makers will end up helping the Gators more than anything else.
The Hotseat
As profiled here and everywhere, Billy Napier needs a great showing to keep his job. He knows this, and fully understands the situation at hand. In all honesty, that fact should help the Gators. Napier comprehends the deal. In movie imagery, he will make his last stand in The Swamp.
With pundits already choosing his successor via content, and those coaches looking at Zillow for homes in Alachua County, no play drawn looks unreasonable. With a job to lose, but a $32-million buyout, Napier can coach with a clear mind. The worst the school can do is fire him and pay an eight-figure buyout. No opponent will rattle Napier and his team.
Upside
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Florida enters the season with a seasoned quarterback, within a system he thrives. Graham Mertz fits the scheme. Only three of Florida’s opponents will return a starting quarterback. As a result, many will use this season as a way of grasping a system.
Meanwhile, Mertz will head in to games with a feeling that his opponent will not. Moreover, six of Florida’s games occur in The Swamp. With 89,000 people, a majority clad in blue and orange, home-field becomes that much more important.
Opponent Expectations Burden
People continue to underdiscuss what Florida’s opponents will face. Georgia, Ole Miss, Florida State, TAMU, and Tennessee all have playoff expectations. Probability being what they are, a couple of those teams will lose multiple games. Under those circumstances, their fate changes from a certain home game to possibly playing on the road or potential omission from the process altogether.
One of these opposing will exhibit some variation of posterior puckering, making bad decisions, leading to an upset by Florida. Since 1988, only three Gator seasons ended with five or fewer wins. Somehow, somewhere, probably multiple teams will fall. Plus, the karmic nature of college football dictates conference chaos.
Western Carolina Catamounts (2-2) at Florida State Seminoles (6-1)
Tallahassee, Florida; Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST
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BOTTOM LINE: Western Carolina plays Florida State after Cord Stansberry scored 20 points in Western Carolina’s 82-69 loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The Seminoles are 3-1 on their home court. Florida State is 5-1 when it wins the turnover battle and averages 12.4 turnovers per game.
Western Carolina finished 11-8 in SoCon action and 10-6 on the road a season ago. The Catamounts averaged 11.3 assists per game on 28.2 made field goals last season.
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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
It’s been a good couple weeks for the Florida Gators.
First, they take down No. 22 LSU, 27-16, with a bend but don’t break approach. Then, they follow that up by upsetting No. 9 Ole Miss, 24-17. With that latter win, heads really began to turn. It was one thing to put up fights against Tennessee and Georgia, but now, they’re beginning to take down these formidable opponents.
The analysts are starting to talk them up. ESPN’s College Gameday analyst Kirk Herbstreit is ready to hand head coach Billy Napier the award for coach of the year. He made sure to include that he thinks quarterback DJ Lagway is going to be something special.
“Can a guy with a team that will finish 7-5 win the coach of the year award? He should!!” Herbstreit said in a tweet. “Billy Napier and [the Florida Gators, after being 4-5 and losing two straight, have beaten LSU and Ole Miss. So impressive to see this fight from the Gators and their fans after having a tough year. And, oh yeah, DJ Lagway is the REAL DEAL!”
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Big Cat from Barstool Sports jumped on X (formerly Twitter) and said, “The Florida Gators may need a playoff berth.”
Now, that can be written off as two guys getting excited, but key writers are noticing too. Florida received votes in the latest AP Poll.
Brian Brian Fonesca of the NJ.com/Star-Ledger and Ian Kress of WLNS-TV (a CBS affiliate in Lansing, Michigan) ranked them No. 25. David Paschall of the Chattanooga Times Free Press ranked them No. 24. It’s only four points, but they’re the only five-loss team to receive votes.
Unofficially, they’re ranked No. 33 in the country. If they had beaten Tennessee or Georgia to have that slightly better 7-4 record, could very well be in the top 25 right now. It’s hard to vote for a 6-5 team, that’s totally fair, but the willingness to do so by a handful of writers is a good starting point. If they win out, including a quality bowl win, to finish 8-5, finishing ranked is realistic.
Those who are signing on now are seeing what could be on the horizon in 2025. This is how they are playing now. This team might have won eight or nine games had this been yearlong. Wait until they play the portal some more this summer to bring in more talent, Napier gets that offensive coordinator and Lagway comes in with nearly a year of play under his belt.
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The Florida Gators have put the country on notice. They gave Napier the time to rebuild after Dan Mullen’s collapse, and that time is beginning to pay off.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida players eager to celebrate their latest victory, the one that made them bowl eligible for the first time in two years, found a suitable prop on the sideline.
Ole Miss left behind its basketball hoop, which the Rebels use to salute big plays during games.
The Gators set it up, grabbed some footballs and held their own dunk contest near the end zone. It provided an apt stage — perfect for showcasing finishing moves — after they closed out another ranked opponent.
Florida (6-5, 4-4 Southeastern Conference) dominated the second half for the second consecutive week and got to party in the Swamp following a 24-17 victory over then-ninth-ranked Mississippi on Saturday.
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Not only did the Gators knock the Rebels (8-3, 4-3) out of the College Football Playoff picture, they won their fourth consecutive home game and raised expectations for coach Billy Napier’s fourth season in Gainesville.
And the manner in which they accomplished it mattered. Napier has been preaching about “finishing,” something that had mostly eluded the Gators in the past two years.
Florida lost four games in 2023 after leading in the second half, including three — against Arkansas, Missouri and Florida State — in the fourth quarter.
And no one following the program has forgotten how close the Gators were to upsetting Tennessee and Georgia earlier this season, losing 23-17 to the Volunteers in overtime and fading against the Bulldogs after being tied at 20 with five minutes to play.
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Napier hoped all those gut punches would ultimately lead to something better, and they finally did — with late-game knockouts against LSU and Mississippi.
“Eventually you get sick of that,” receiver Chimere Dike said. “To be able to get these last two wins is huge for our team and our program. I’m proud of the resilience the guys showed, the way that we performed.”
Florida held Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin’s high-scoring offense to three points in the second half. The Rebels turned the ball over twice — interceptions by Bryce Thornton on the final two drives — punted twice and got stuffed on another fourth-down run.
“I thought we were better on both sides up front, and short-yardage defense is a big component,” Napier said. “Those are identity plays. I think we had guys step up and make plays.”
Added defensive tackle Cam Jackson said: “Everybody just pinned their ears back. That was great.”
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It was reminiscent of the previous week against then-No. 21 LSU. Florida held the Tigers to six points in the second half and forced a fumble, a punt and a turnover on downs in a 27-16 victory.
“We just all came together and wanted to change how Florida was looked at,” Thornton said. “That’s the biggest thing with us, just trying to show everybody that we can do it.”
The Gators ended the afternoon showing off their basketball moves.
Cornerback Trikweze Bridges, receiver Marcus Burke, defensive end Justus Boone, tight end Tony Livingston and linebacker Shemar James delivered monster dunks. Aidan Mizell passed a football between his leg in midair before his slam, and fellow receiver Elijhah Badger bounced it off the backboard before rousing teammates and fans with his finish.
“Belief is the most powerful thing in the world,” Napier said. “At some point there, midseason, we figured (that) out and we started to believe. Look, we can play with any team in the country.”