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Communities in Florida are being urged to prepare for a potential Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico just days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in the state – killing at least 20 people in Florida, leaving thousands without power and paving a trail of wreckage.

While the state is still clearing debris from Helene – which made landfall September 26 on Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4 and created a 500-mile path of destruction with catastrophic flooding and damaging winds – it’s now contending with Tropical Storm Milton.

The storm is expected to “quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week,” the National Hurricane Center said.

“The big question is how quickly and by how much will the storm intensify,” the hurricane center said.

Milton is projected to make landfall in Florida at up to Category 3 strength with 115 mph winds. On Sunday, hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be issued for parts of the Florida coast – with dangerous storm surge expected for some areas just slammed by Helene.

“Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week,” the hurricane center said, adding that rainfall will impact parts of Florida Sunday and Monday.

Milton formed in the western Gulf on Saturday morning, just hours after it became a tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center said in a special alert. The 13th named storm is running weeks ahead of schedule as it doesn’t usually occur until October 25.

“The official intensity forecasts call for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours,” the National Hurricane Center said Saturday.

The quickly strengthening storm could bring life-threatening impacts to parts of the west coast of Florida beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. With very low vertical wind shear and incredibly warm sea-surface temperatures, Milton will be able to gain steady to rapid strength over the next few days.

In preparation for the storm, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 35 counties Saturday, according to a release from his office. The storm could prolong recovery efforts from Helene and impact Florida Gulf Coast communities still recuperating from Helene, the release said.

“As many continue to recover from Hurricane Helene, I have directed the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Florida Department of Transportation to coordinate all available personnel and resources to supplement local communities as they expedite debris removal in impacted areas,” DeSantis said in a social media post Saturday. “We will continue staging state assets to prepare for efficient search and rescue, power restoration, and roadway clearing.”

Heavy rain is a growing concern, the hurricane center says. “Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night,” the center said. “This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.”

There is also an increasing risk of storm surge for the western Florida Peninsula as early as late Tuesday or Wednesday. Damaging winds, tornadoes and waterspouts will also be possible next week.

It’s only been a little over a week since Helene slammed the state, but officials across Florida are already asking residents to prepare for another potentially life-threatening storm as many are still in recovery mode.

“Here we go again,” said the police department in Naples, Florida, adding heavy rainfall and flooding concerns will increase starting Sunday through the middle of next week. Authorities urged residents not to drive on streets with water over them.

Once again, Florida’s emergency officials find themselves announcing sandbag distribution sites. Multiple sandbag locations will be open in counties preparing for potential storm impacts, the Florida Division of Emergency Management announced Saturday.

The town of Fort Myers Beach warned residents “to stay vigilant and prepared,” and said residents could pick up sandbags at the town hall.

“Those that live in the areas prone to flooding, please be aware that the Town’s stormwater system will not alleviate water breaching the seawalls from the back bay,” the town said in a Facebook post.

In the city of Sanibel, which received more than 50 inches of rainfall prior to the storm surge flooding caused by Helene, residents and business owners have been urged to begin preparing for impacts from the storm “as soon as possible.”

“Residents and business owners should anticipate Tropical Storm or Hurricane Milton will likely bring flooding to Sanibel,” the city said in a news release Saturday. “Residents and business owners who are in low-lying areas of Sanibel, or who may not feel safe in their structure during a storm, should consider finding alternative accommodations in advance of the storm’s arrival.”

Since Helene hit the city, crews have worked throughout the island to clear storm drains and debris and manage weirs to increase storage capacity of storm water, the city said.

Sanibel officials encouraged residents to clear debris from drainage areas near their homes or businesses before any heavy rainfall.

Another area in the potential path of Milton is Pinellas County, which reported more than 28,000 properties had been damaged or destroyed by Helene. Officials said it’s too early to tell how Milton will impact the county, but residents could prepare by picking up sandbags at county sites starting Sunday.

As part of an effort to clear debris caused by Helene, the governor ordered “Disaster Debris Management Sites and landfills in all counties impacted by Hurricane Helene to remain open and allow twenty-four hour debris drop off,” the Saturday news release from his office said. That’s part of the state’s effort to ensure as much debris from Helene is cleaned up and disposed of ahead of the impending storm, the release said.

In hard-hit Pinellas County, where thousands of homes have been wrecked or obliterated by Helene, displaced residents who are picking up the pieces may soon have to endure another storm.

“Some of us cry, some of us hug each other, and then we just put our big girl panties on and keep going,” St. Petersburg resident Debbie Bright told CNN affiliate WFTS. Her home has been destroyed and everything she owns is now in a 5-by-10-foot storage unit, she said.

Bright said she was in complete shock when she saw the devastation in her neighborhood.

“I have four grandchildren and this is the only place they’ve ever known and they come in. And they are crying because this was nanny and papi’s house,” Bright said.

Bright stayed in Palm Harbor during the storm, but the storm surge came through her backdoor and pulled much of her furniture into the bay, she said.

“We are on day number seven here and when I got here this morning, I sat in a chair and we cried, and then we are ok and then we cry again,” Bright told WFTS.

The only thing keeping her community going is having supportive neighbors, Bright said. All she can hope for at this point is that her community recovers quickly.

“It’s kind of one hour at a time, one day at a time,” Bright said.

An alarming change in the forecast now shows the potential for a dangerous hurricane to strike the west coast of Florida later this week with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and torrential rain.

The budding cyclone was designated Tropical Depression Fourteen on Saturday morning by the National Hurricane Center, but it’s now expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane by early to middle of next week, eventually reaching Florida on Wednesday.

The forecast with TD14 has evolved quite a bit in the last 24 hours, showing greater potential to be a more significant storm.

“I don’t like the way this is developing at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “It just means the odds are significantly higher (Saturday) than they were (Friday) that a memorable, impactful storm is going to impact Florida in the days ahead.” 

What’s the latest with Tropical Depression 14?

Tropical Depression Fourteen is about 240 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. It has peak winds of 35 mph and is moving northeast at 3 mph.

What’s the forecast for Tropical Depression 14?

TD Fourteen is forecast to pick up speed early next week and turn to the east/northeast across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength on Monday with rapid strengthening likely during the early part of the week, according to the NHC. Once it reaches tropical storm strength, it’ll take the name Milton.

“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have a significant storm offshore (of Florida on Wednesday),” Norcross said. “How significant is this? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Decent chance. And these models, they say hurricane. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category two, Category three. We can’t even rule that out.”

He added: “There is really no good news in any of these various computer forecasts, but here we are.”

The NHC echoes those concerns.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” the agency said Saturday morning. 

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to be from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 5-8 inches of rainfall over the next week, with some areas nearing a foot of rain.

Because much of the rain will be spread out over several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated, but where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same region, issues could arise.

The expected impacted region is farther south from where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as locations such as Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

In addition to the rainfall, rough seas will lead to threats of increased rip currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

“The bottom line is we do have the potential for a significant, problematic, impactful storm coming toward Florida Tuesday, Wednesday-ish of next week,” Norcross said.

What’s to be expected with the rest of hurricane season?

The waters in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf remain plenty warm for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is Nov. 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses a direct threat to any landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.

As much of the western Florida Peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, recovers from massive storm surge damage associated with Hurricane Helene, the next hurricane threat for the United States is also focused on Florida. Here’s what we know right now about the next storm.

At the time of writing on Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean (Kirk and Leslie) and a system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Kirk is a powerful, major hurricane, but it nor Leslie will threaten the U.S. However, the system in the Gulf of Mexico is a different story. NHC’s morning discussion said, “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.” The storm has a 70% chance of further development within the next two days, and a 90% chance within the next five days. My experience tells me that we could be looking at a tropical depression or named storm (Milton) later today or Sunday.

We use several models when evaluating these threats, but I will focus on the American GFS and European models, respectively. Both of them are in strong consensus that the storm could move towards the western Florida Peninsula with a potential landfall by the middle of the week. NHC warned, “By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely.”

At this point, I will not anchor to any single model solution outcomes. However, several outcomes show that the storm could intensify into a hurricane and potentially very strong one. Weather expert Michael Ventrice makes this point in the post above, but I caution you that is only one of the potential outcomes shown. His greater point is one that also worries me. When a storm like this gets into the likely climate-charged, abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico, I am always on high alert. If you are in Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers or anywhere along the Florida Peninsula or the Keys, I advise you to pay close attention to this storm. More immediately, the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico is likely to be affected.

There are several things that concern me about this potential storm. Irrespective of name (and it probably will get one), it is going to produce a significant amount of rainfall in Florida. Like Helene, it appears that rainfall could inundate Florida well ahead of the eventual tropical storm or hurricane. This is a recipe for flooding. Much of Florida is already recovering from Helene so this is the last thing they need. Also, both models suggest a landfall in a region spanning Tampa Bay to Fort Myers. There is still uncertainty, but the range of possibilities start to narrow since we are within the five-day window. With current track projections, even places like Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Miami, and the Bahamas should be paying attention.

Not surprisingly, the misinformation machine has been firing on all cylinders after Hurricane Helene. It is not unusual to have hurricanes in September or October. In fact, the peak of the Atlantic season is in September. The 2024 season was always projected to be quite active due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, La Nina and other factors. That’s it, that’s the explanation.