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Analysis | Arizona and Florida could send a big message on abortion rights

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Analysis | Arizona and Florida could send a big message on abortion rights


The abortion rights position has won on the ballot in 7 out of 7 states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in mid-2022 — even in red-leaning ones such as Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio.

And new polling suggests that in 2024, abortion rights measures could do even better than they did in those first seven states, as voters in states with severe GOP led-abortion bans weigh in.

The polling, from CBS News and YouGov, shows striking margins in Arizona and Florida for enshrining abortion rights into those states’ constitutions. That position leads 65 percent to 21 percent in Arizona and 60 percent to 20 percent in Florida. Previous polling in Florida also showed voters favoring the abortion rights amendment by wide margins — by 21 points in one poll and by 30 points in another.

Florida’s measure will be on the ballot; Arizona’s is still a work in progress, but organizers say they have more than enough signatures to get it there. Other states will feature such measures, but Arizona and Florida are the big ones.

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The newest polling shows not only that voters overwhelmingly favor the amendments, but even Republicans lean in favor of them — 43-38 in Arizona and 43-34 in Florida.

That 60 percent overall number in Florida is notable because that’s the threshold for passage in the state — a higher bar than the one for most states.

It’s also notable because it suggests the potential for an even more resounding affirmation of abortion rights.

While abortion rights positions have won plenty of votes from Republican-leaning voters, they have done so to varying degrees. A good way to look at this is how they have performed relative to the 2020 presidential vote.

The best relative performance for an abortion rights amendment thus far? The most recent one. In Ohio last year, it over-performed Biden’s 2020 vote share by 11.6 points. Biden got 45 percent in 2020, but the abortion rights amendment got 57 percent.

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The average overperformance across the four states: eight points.

The new Arizona and Florida polls already show support for the amendments outpacing Biden’s 2020 share in those states by 16 points and 12 points, respectively — even with a fair number of undecided voters.

There have been states where the abortion rights position over-performed Biden by more than it did in the four states above: Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. But importantly, those states weren’t voting directly on enshrining abortion rights.

Montana’s measure was narrowly about infants born after failed abortions. Kansas’s and Kentucky’s measures asked voters to affirmatively state that the state constitution didn’t protect abortion rights. In those last two states, the measures over-performed Biden by 17 and 16 points, respectively — the biggest overperformances to date.

And that could be instructive.

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These were situations in which voters were effectively being asked not to add a right, but to foreclose one.

Indeed, what could set Arizona and Florida apart from the four states that have previously voted to enshrine abortion rights is how much those rights have been curtailed in those states.

The Florida Supreme Court last month greenlit the state’s six-week abortion ban, which even former president Donald Trump has sought to distance himself from. Then the Arizona Supreme Court last month revived a harsh 1864 law that banned nearly all abortions — even in the cases of rape and incest — and made providing one punishable by two to five years in prison. (This set off a panic in GOP circles which eventually led to the law’s repeal. A 15-week ban remains in place.)

This has set up a situation in which voters could effectively view the abortion rights amendments as referendums on the harsh GOP-backed laws and an opportunity to register their discontent. The same YouGov poll, for instance, shows 72 percent of Arizona voters approve of overturning the 1864 law.

Or, at the very least, the stakes of allowing their representatives to restrict abortion rights could be more real to them than to voters in California, Michigan, Vermont and Ohio, where similar laws weren’t in play.

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It’s that dynamic that makes these potentially resounding votes in Florida and Arizona particularly important for the future of abortion rights in America.



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ESPN Highlights Billy Napier Redemption Arc with Florida Gators

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ESPN Highlights Billy Napier Redemption Arc with Florida Gators


It’s been a good couple weeks for Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier. He’s picked up two long-awaited SEC wins. One is his first win over LSU and another is his first top-10 win since the Gators beat No. 7 Utah in his first game as their head coach. 

ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg made sure to give him some love in their college football Week 13 takeaways. 

He considers Napier, along with Oklahoma’s Brent Venables and Auburn’s Hugh Freeze to have further redeemed themselves with big wins on Saturday. 

“But Napier, Venables and Freeze all strengthened their profiles and elevated hope for the future by leading their teams to signature wins in Week 13.” 

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Rittenberg was impressed by Florida’s continuing to bend but not break on defense and the performance of true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. This all culminated in what could have spoiled Ole Miss’ playoff ambitions. 

“Napier, whose Florida team had outclassed LSU the week before in The Swamp, likely eliminated Ole Miss from CFP contention with an excellent second half. A Gators defense that struggled early allowed only three points in the final 39 minutes and intercepted Jaxson Dart twice in the closing minutes, and Florida got impressive play from its own young quarterback, DJ Lagway.”

Napier was also given credit for having shown “real signs of promise before Week 13.”

Florida took No. 8 Tennessee to overtime, losing 23-17. But more impressively took Georgia down to the wire despite Lagway being carted off with a hamstring injury. While the final score was 34-20, those who watched know that it was a one-score game until about four minutes to go. That gave Florida props, but now he’s beaten ranked opponents. 

Now, Florida has a shot to finish with its first winning record since 2020 and win its first bowl game since 2019. 

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Rittenberg concluded his takes by saying Napier, along with Vernables and Freeze, has given “tangible evidence to cite that better days might be ahead.” 

It sure is finally starting to look that way. 



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Western Carolina visits Florida State following Stansberry’s 20-point game

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Western Carolina visits Florida State following Stansberry’s 20-point game


Associated Press

Western Carolina Catamounts (2-2) at Florida State Seminoles (6-1)

Tallahassee, Florida; Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST

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BOTTOM LINE: Western Carolina plays Florida State after Cord Stansberry scored 20 points in Western Carolina’s 82-69 loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

The Seminoles are 3-1 on their home court. Florida State is 5-1 when it wins the turnover battle and averages 12.4 turnovers per game.

Western Carolina finished 11-8 in SoCon action and 10-6 on the road a season ago. The Catamounts averaged 11.3 assists per game on 28.2 made field goals last season.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Florida Gators Put Nation on Notice with Ole Miss Win

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Florida Gators Put Nation on Notice with Ole Miss Win


It’s been a good couple weeks for the Florida Gators.

First, they take down No. 22 LSU, 27-16, with a bend but don’t break approach. Then, they follow that up by upsetting No. 9 Ole Miss, 24-17. With that latter win, heads really began to turn. It was one thing to put up fights against Tennessee and Georgia, but now, they’re beginning to take down these formidable opponents. 

The analysts are starting to talk them up. ESPN’s College Gameday analyst Kirk Herbstreit is ready to hand head coach Billy Napier the award for coach of the year. He made sure to include that he thinks quarterback DJ Lagway is going to be something special. 

“Can a guy with a team that will finish 7-5 win the coach of the year award? He should!!” Herbstreit said in a tweet. “Billy Napier and  [the Florida Gators, after being 4-5 and losing two straight,  have beaten LSU and Ole Miss. So impressive to see this fight from the Gators and their fans after having a tough year. And, oh yeah, DJ Lagway is the REAL DEAL!”

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Big Cat from Barstool Sports jumped on X (formerly Twitter) and said, “The Florida Gators may need a playoff berth.”

Now, that can be written off as two guys getting excited, but key writers are noticing too. Florida received votes in the latest AP Poll. 

Brian Brian Fonesca of the NJ.com/Star-Ledger and Ian Kress of WLNS-TV (a CBS affiliate in Lansing, Michigan) ranked them No. 25. David Paschall of the Chattanooga Times Free Press ranked them No. 24. It’s only four points, but they’re the only five-loss team to receive votes. 

Unofficially, they’re ranked No. 33 in the country. If they had beaten Tennessee or Georgia to have that slightly better 7-4 record, could very well be in the top 25 right now. It’s hard to vote for a 6-5 team, that’s totally fair, but the willingness to do so by a handful of writers is a good starting point. If they win out, including a quality bowl win, to finish 8-5, finishing ranked is realistic.

Those who are signing on now are seeing what could be on the horizon in 2025. This is how they are playing now. This team might have won eight or nine games had this been yearlong. Wait until they play the portal some more this summer to bring in more talent, Napier gets that offensive coordinator and Lagway comes in with nearly a year of play under his belt. 

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The Florida Gators have put the country on notice. They gave Napier the time to rebuild after Dan Mullen’s collapse, and that time is beginning to pay off. 



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