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Analysis | Arizona and Florida could send a big message on abortion rights

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Analysis | Arizona and Florida could send a big message on abortion rights


The abortion rights position has won on the ballot in 7 out of 7 states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in mid-2022 — even in red-leaning ones such as Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio.

And new polling suggests that in 2024, abortion rights measures could do even better than they did in those first seven states, as voters in states with severe GOP led-abortion bans weigh in.

The polling, from CBS News and YouGov, shows striking margins in Arizona and Florida for enshrining abortion rights into those states’ constitutions. That position leads 65 percent to 21 percent in Arizona and 60 percent to 20 percent in Florida. Previous polling in Florida also showed voters favoring the abortion rights amendment by wide margins — by 21 points in one poll and by 30 points in another.

Florida’s measure will be on the ballot; Arizona’s is still a work in progress, but organizers say they have more than enough signatures to get it there. Other states will feature such measures, but Arizona and Florida are the big ones.

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The newest polling shows not only that voters overwhelmingly favor the amendments, but even Republicans lean in favor of them — 43-38 in Arizona and 43-34 in Florida.

That 60 percent overall number in Florida is notable because that’s the threshold for passage in the state — a higher bar than the one for most states.

It’s also notable because it suggests the potential for an even more resounding affirmation of abortion rights.

While abortion rights positions have won plenty of votes from Republican-leaning voters, they have done so to varying degrees. A good way to look at this is how they have performed relative to the 2020 presidential vote.

The best relative performance for an abortion rights amendment thus far? The most recent one. In Ohio last year, it over-performed Biden’s 2020 vote share by 11.6 points. Biden got 45 percent in 2020, but the abortion rights amendment got 57 percent.

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The average overperformance across the four states: eight points.

The new Arizona and Florida polls already show support for the amendments outpacing Biden’s 2020 share in those states by 16 points and 12 points, respectively — even with a fair number of undecided voters.

There have been states where the abortion rights position over-performed Biden by more than it did in the four states above: Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. But importantly, those states weren’t voting directly on enshrining abortion rights.

Montana’s measure was narrowly about infants born after failed abortions. Kansas’s and Kentucky’s measures asked voters to affirmatively state that the state constitution didn’t protect abortion rights. In those last two states, the measures over-performed Biden by 17 and 16 points, respectively — the biggest overperformances to date.

And that could be instructive.

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These were situations in which voters were effectively being asked not to add a right, but to foreclose one.

Indeed, what could set Arizona and Florida apart from the four states that have previously voted to enshrine abortion rights is how much those rights have been curtailed in those states.

The Florida Supreme Court last month greenlit the state’s six-week abortion ban, which even former president Donald Trump has sought to distance himself from. Then the Arizona Supreme Court last month revived a harsh 1864 law that banned nearly all abortions — even in the cases of rape and incest — and made providing one punishable by two to five years in prison. (This set off a panic in GOP circles which eventually led to the law’s repeal. A 15-week ban remains in place.)

This has set up a situation in which voters could effectively view the abortion rights amendments as referendums on the harsh GOP-backed laws and an opportunity to register their discontent. The same YouGov poll, for instance, shows 72 percent of Arizona voters approve of overturning the 1864 law.

Or, at the very least, the stakes of allowing their representatives to restrict abortion rights could be more real to them than to voters in California, Michigan, Vermont and Ohio, where similar laws weren’t in play.

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It’s that dynamic that makes these potentially resounding votes in Florida and Arizona particularly important for the future of abortion rights in America.



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Preview: December 23 vs. Florida | Carolina Hurricanes

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Preview: December 23 vs. Florida | Carolina Hurricanes


RALEIGH, N.C. – The Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers square off for the second time in five days on Tuesday, going head-to-head at Lenovo Center.

When: Tuesday, Dec. 23

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. ET

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Watch: FanDuel Sports Network South, FanDuel Sports Network App | Learn More

Listen: 99.9 The Fan, Hurricanes App

Canes Record: 22-10-3 (47 Points, 1st – Metropolitan Division)

Canes Last Game: 6-4 Loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday, Dec. 20

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Panthers Record: 19-14-2 (40 Points, T-5th – Atlantic Division)

Panthers Last Game: 6-2 Loss to the St. Louis Blues on Saturday, Dec. 20



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Florida football finalizes hire of Joe Craddock as quarterbacks coach

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Florida football finalizes hire of Joe Craddock as quarterbacks coach


Florida football will be hiring Joe Craddock as its next quarterbacks coach, according to a report by Swamp247.

The move adds a veteran offensive mind with extensive play-calling and quarterback-development experience under Jon Sumrall’s first staff with the Gators.

Craddock comes to Gainesville after spending the past two seasons with Tulane, where he served as the Green Wave’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Prior to that, he held the same role at Troy.

At Troy, Craddock’s offenses consistently ranked near the top of the Sun Belt across multiple statistical categories, combining downfield passing efficiency with a balanced run game.

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Before his time at Troy and Tulane, Craddock built a resume that includes offensive coordinator stops at UAB, Arkansas and SMU, along with earlier developmental roles at Clemson.

Craddock’s coaching career began after a playing stint at Middle Tennessee, followed by professional experience overseas before transitioning into coaching at the high school level and quickly rising through the college ranks.

With the Orange and Blue, Craddock is expected to work closely with the Gators’ signal-callers as the program looks to establish consistency and development at the position under Sumrall.

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.





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‘Pursuing all leads:’ Search for missing Fort Myers boaters continues into Monday morning

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‘Pursuing all leads:’ Search for missing Fort Myers boaters continues into Monday morning


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The search for the 57-year-old Fort Myers attorney and his 33-year-old nephew continued late Sunday after the pair was reported missing Dec. 19 after a fishing trip off the coast of Naples.

The U.S. Coast Guard reported it would continue the search overnight.

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A new grid search by volunteer searchers was expected to start Monday morning, Dec. 22, 70 miles east of Naples, family members reported on Facebook.

“USCG crews and partner agencies are continuing the search through the night by air and by sea,” the Coast Guard posted on X at 8:34 p.m. Sunday, Dec. 21.

The U.S. Coast Guard is leading the search along with partner agencies to find attorney Randall Spivey and his nephew Brandon Billmaier, who were reported missing at about 9 p.m. Friday. The boat they’d been using for their trip had been scheduled to return at about sunset.

The pair went out in a 42-foot Freeman boat named “Unstopp-A-Bull,” according to Luis Garcia, the supervisor on watch for the Coast Guard sector in St. Petersburg. The Coast Guard found the boat floating upright in the Gulf about 70 miles off the coast of Naples, with no signs of the missing boaters.

Now, one of the largest searches in Southwest Florida history is underway, with a large community effort behind it.

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Were the missing Florida boaters from Fort Myers found? Boater’s wife provides updates

As of late Sunday, Dec. 21, Spivey and Billmaier, the Florida boaters reported missing Dec. 19 after a fishing trip off the coast of Naples, had not been found, according to Billmaier’s wife, Deborah.

Deborah and other family members of the missing men continued to ask for prayers and for volunteers to help search.

“We are asking for vessels capable of a 225-mile range to assist in a major offshore search,” Deborah Billmaier said in a Facebook post.

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“Thank you to all the local heroes who are working to bring my husband Brandon and uncle Randy home,” her post said. “They have not yet been found, but we are staying positive.”

To volunteer in the offshore seach for the missing boaters:

Deborah Billmore’s Facebook post asked volunteer searchers to text to Paul at 239-634-3400:

  • Departure location
  • Vessel name
  • Captains name and cell number
  • First mate’s name and cell number
  • Vessel range

She said vessels will depart from their own location (ranging from Fort Myers to Marco Island) and search grids would be assigned after updated information is received at 8 a.m. Monday, Dec. 22.

‘Still not sure exactly what occurred’

Deborah Billmaier had posted earlier Sunday:

“Updates after speaking with the U.S. Coast Guard this morning,” Deborah Billmaier wrote in a Facebook post Sunday. “The EPIRB (Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon) was unfortunately still on the boat. They were bottom fishing when the incident occurred (still not sure exactly what occurred.)”

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The post also mentioned that a couple of life jackets were not found on the boat, indicating that Spivey and Billmaier may be wearing them.

Who is involved in the Florida missing boaters search?

The U.S. Coast Guard sector in St. Petersburg posted news of the search on social media Saturday morning, Dec. 20.

According to the Facebook post, air and surface crews from the agency and partner agencies U.S. Coast Guard Station Fort Myers Beach, U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater, U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Miami and Lee County Sheriff’s Office are involved in the search.

“The search effort support features an 87-foot boat on water, 45-foot boat, 60-foot helicopter, 144 plane, 6130 Air Force from Patrick Air Force Base and an 144 continuing through the day (not sure if this is a boat or a plane),” Deborah Billmaier wrote in her post the following morning.

An urgent marine broadcast has also been issued to all vessels in the area to help expand the search range, said Billmaier.

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Community steps in to help in missing boater search in Florida

The U.S. Coast Guard coordinated one of the largest search parties in Southwest Florida history Sunday morning, Dec. 21, starting at first light, according to Deborah Billmaier.

Florida Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman shared the post on X.

Erin Shaw Harrel of Facebook group SWFL Boaters urged people Saturday to take to the water to search for the missing boaters, providing these coordinates for the search: 25-51.67N 083-12.16W.

Brent Stokes, owner of Stokes Marine, also asked for volunteers to help search.

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According to Stokes, anyone willing to help with the search could call Tricia Spivey at 239-896-4099 or the U.S. Coast Guard at 727-322-4180.

Capt. Corrie Sergent of the Coast Guard’s Sector St. Petersburg posted on X Sunday morning, Dec. 21, noting crews were “pursuing all leads and saturating the (search) area.”

“Thank you to this amazing community for their support,’ Sergent said in the tweet.

Who are Randall Spivey, Brandon Billmaier ? Florida attorney and nephew missing off Fort Myers

Attorney Randall Spivey, 57, and his 33-year-old nephew Brandon Billmaier were reported missing at about 9 p.m. Friday, Dec. 19.

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Tricia Spivey reported her husband and nephew missing Friday night, said Luis Garcia, supervisor on watch for the Coast Guard sector in St. Petersburg. “They were going to fish about 102 miles offshore.”

Spivey is a white male, 6’1”, 245lbs, with brown hair and brown eyes. He was last seen wearing khaki pants and a dark in color shirt, according to Lee County Sheriff’s Office. Billmaier is a white male, 6’2”, 250lbs, with strawberry hair and brown eyes.

Where was the boat of the missing fisherman found?

The pair went out in a 42-foot Freeman boat named “Unstopp-A-Bull,” Garcia said. The Coast Guard later found the boat floating upright in the Gulf about 70 miles off the coast of Naples, but no signs of the missing boaters.

Tricia Spivey says GPS coordinates from the boat’s spot tracker led them to that location near Marco Island and Flamingo. That’s where the search has been concentrated.

Where to call with information, help with search for missing Florida boaters

The Coast Coast asked anyone with pertinent information to contact the agency’s St. Petersburg sector at 866-881-1392.

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The Lee County Sheriff’s Office also requested the public’s help in locating Spivey and Billmaier.

If anyone knows about the pair’s whereabouts, they can call 911, if applicable, or call the sheriff’s office at 477-1000. To remain anonymous, you can also call SWFL Crime Stoppers at 1-800-780-TIPS.

Contributing: Cindy McCurry-Ross



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