AUSTIN, Texas — Snow shovels may not be needed next week, but Spectrum News meteorologist Dan Robertson says northeast Texas down to San Marcos should prepare for colder weather. 

“In this particular case, the freezing temperatures will mainly be overnight, early morning, and each afternoon most of the state will rise a little bit above freezing,” said Robertson.

Officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas expect the grid to be adequate in a winter storm. However, there is a 50 to 80% chance of rolling blackouts if a storm lasts several days.

ERCOT said in a statement that it is “closely monitoring the winter weather conditions moving into Texas next week. Grid conditions are expected to be normal.” 

“One of the things that we don’t really know for sure is how long this is going to last, these polar air masses being very dense and heavy. They tend to get into the area and then just hang around until something comes along to push them out,” said Robertson.

In correlation with low temperatures, ERCOT forecasts show an increased energy demand early next week. Energy expert Ed Hirs predicts the power plants will remain operable, but at a cost to consumers.

“If a few of these plants don’t show up, then the price across the grid will go from, say, $50 a megawatt hour to $5,000 a megawatt hour, or in wholesale terms for the consumer, it will go from 5 cents a kilowatt hour to $5 a kilowatt hour,” said Hirs.

Competitive pricing for consumers is why the Rio Grande Electric Co-op, which owns power lines across 18 Texas counties, wants to connect its New Mexico consumers to the Texas power grid.

“Connect to ERCOT, then we have a bigger pool to, you know, find better pricing, a better source,” said Theresa Quiroz, CEO at Rio Grande Electric.

ERCOT and the Public Utilities Commission of Texas, which regulates the grid, oppose the out-of-state connection.

In a filing, PUCT warns that Rio Grande Electric’s request could trigger federal oversight and “disrupt the jurisdictional status quo for ERCOT and the utilities operating in ERCOT that the PUCT regulates.”

“We can’t leave our members out in the dark,” said Quiroz.

In November, Rio Grande Electric asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to determine whether connecting its New Mexico customers to ERCOT would require federal regulation.

“In our filing we talk about hypothetical projects that could come to fruition if, you know, the FERC matter gets resolved and they give us permission to move forward. Now, once we get that, then we go to the Public Utility Commission with an actual project that they can review, dissect and inform us which direction we need to go in,” said Quiroz.

But energy experts warn federal oversight may be unavoidable if ERCOT can’t keep the power on this winter.

“I would expect that President Trump is going to make an effort to throw ERCOT under federal oversight and regulation, simply because this is a huge national security issue for this country,” said Hirs.

As the freezing weather moves closer, power plants are required to weatherize equipment, and Texans are advised to weatherize their homes. 

“The main thing is to make sure that your heating ventilation system is well-functioning and is ready to be tested over the next seven days or so,” said Robertson.