The winner goes to Atlanta and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The loser goes home for the winter. It’s the College Football Playoff and two national brands that have never faced each other. Will it be a shootout in Texas? We find out Saturday.
12-SEED CLEMSON (10-3, 7-1 ACC) at 5-SEED TEXAS (11-2, 7-1 SEC)
WHEN: SATURDAY, DEC. 21, 4 P.M. ET
WHERE: DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUM (100,119), AUSTIN, TEXAS
TELEVISION: TNT (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Taylor McGregor, Laura Rutledge)
RADIO: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Reggie Merriweather)
RADIO: ESPN Radio (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Dana Boyle)
SATELLITE RADIO: SiriusXM 81
NOTABLE
*This season, Clemson earned its seventh College Football Playoff berth since the format’s inception in 2014. Clemson’s seven berths trail only Alabama (eight) for the most in the nation. Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney‘s seven CFP berths are the most of any active coach and one shy of Nick Saban (eight) for the most of any coach all-time.
*Though the game features two high-profile quarterbacks, the matchup will also feature two of the game’s emerging young stars on defense. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons (12.5) and Clemson linebacker Sammy Brown (10.5) rank first and second in the nation, respectively, in tackles for loss by freshmen this season.
*Clemson is attempting to win multiple postseason games (conference championship, bowl game and/or national championship game) in a single season for the fifth time in school history (two in 2015, three in 2016, three in 2018 and two in 2019).
*Clemson attempting to produce its 12th 11-win season in program history, joining the 1948, 1978, 1981, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 seasons. It would be Clemson’s ninth season of 11-plus wins under Head Coach Dabo Swinney.
*The winner advances to play Arizona St. in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. That game is set for Wednesday, Jan. 1st at 1 pm.
ABOUT TEXAS
The Longhorns featured the nation’s No. 18 offense (445.4 yards per game), with quarterback Quinn Ewers leading the way. He has thrown for 2,665 yards (233 for 352, 66.2 percent) with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Backup Arch Manning has played in eight games (61-of-90, 939 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions).
However, Ewers is more of a dropback passer and has 42 attempts for minus-62 rushing yards. Unlike the NFL, in college a sack is counted as negative rushing yardage. Manning is more of a dual threat and has 21 carries for 100 yards.
Quintrevion Wisner is the leading rusher (176 carries for 863 yards, 4.9 yards per carry and 71.92 yards per game). Jaydon Blue has carried it 112 times for 564 yards, giving the Longhorns a true two-back tandem.
Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond was the big news in the offseason at wide receiver, but he tallied just 33 catches for 532 yards and five touchdowns [According to ESPN, he faces “long odds” of playing due to recovering from a high ankle sprain still]. Matthew Golden leads Texas with 738 yards on 47 catches, but tight end Gunnar Helms is Ewers’ go-to guy on third down – he has 49 receptions for 611 yards.
Defensively, the Longhorns are ranked third nationally in total defense, giving up just 249.5 yards per game. Texas is ranked second nationally in scoring defense, giving up just 12.5 points per game. Texas ranks 15th nationally against the run (106.38 yards per game) and No. 1 nationally against the pass, giving up just 143.1 yards per game.
Texas gave up over 100 rushing yards seven times, twice to Georgia (108 and 141), and a season-high 197 against Florida. Kentucky managed just 21 yards on the ground in its loss.
Only two teams cracked the 200-yard mark through the air against Longhorns – Michigan (204), and Kentucky (211). Florida is the only school to crack 300 yards of total offense, with 329 yards. That 329-yard mark would serve as the fourth-lowest for the Clemson defense this season.
Texas is ninth nationally in sacks with 38 and recorded six sacks on four occasions (Miss St., Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kentucky). Freshman edge Colin Simmons leads Texas with eight sacks, while sophomore linebacker Anthony Hill registered 4.5 sacks. Fourteen different players have a spot in the sack column.
The Longhorns are seventh nationally in tackles for loss, with 95 (for 402 yards lost). Texas is third nationally in interceptions, with 19 (San Jose St. and BYU each have 20), and it collected a season-high three against Georgia in October.
FIVE KEYS TO A CLEMSON WIN
1. Take care of the football. The Tigers are ranked fifth nationally in turnover margin (plus-16) with 25 takeaways against just nine turnovers. Texas is opportunistic on defense, but also lost 22 turnovers (the same as Clemson last season). Clemson is attempting to win the turnover margin for a sixth straight game. It would be Clemson’s first time winning the turnover margin in six straight contests since a nine-game streak in 2019.
2. Find the running game. Phil Mafah won’t be entirely healthy until he has surgery, but the Tigers still have to run the football enough to keep that dangerous Texas defense honest. To me, that means quarterback Cade Klubnik is going to have to be a huge part of the run game, along with those short throws that act as part of the run game.
3. Score points! That sounds simple, but the Tigers put up yards and plays against both Louisville and South Carolina but didn’t turn those into points.
4. Play complementary football for four quarters. The Tigers will have two good quarters out of the offense, and three good quarters out of the defense, or vice versa, and then it all goes hooey. Teams that should have been put away have crept back into games because of a conservative offense and a conservative defense.
5. Stop the Texas run game. As we’ve noted, Texas is prone to turning it over, and if the Tigers can stop the Longhorn rushing attack and make Ewers one-dimensional, the defense can stymie them enough to win the game.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
I was running through the keys to the game with a former player – one who wears a couple of big-time rings – and he told me, “Hope isn’t a gameplan.”
That’s the critical thing for me. Clemson needs to do things it hasn’t done this season – score points on a really good defense, stop a dominant rushing attack, and play four quarters of good football. It can happen. Clemson has a chance to stroll into Austin and steal one from the Longhorns, but it will take its best effort of the season.
I don’t see it happening. The Texas defense leads the way to a win.
FINAL SCORE: TEXAS 27, CLEMSON 17
TigerNet picks
David Hood – TigerNet senior writer – 27-17 Texas
Mickey Plyler – The Roar 105.5 morning show host – 31-17 Texas
Nikki Hood – Staff writer – 20-17 Clemson
Brandon Rink – Associate editor – 24-22 Clemson
Tony Crumpton – Associate editor – 24-23 Clemson
Ryan Kantor – Contributing Writer – 23-14 Texas
Ariana Pensy – Intern – 27-21 Texas
Merrell Mann – Photographer – 27-24 Clemson
Brooks Thomason – Intern – 30-10 Texas
Grayson Mann – Staff writer – 20-17 Texas
| Game |
Actual |
David Hood |
Plyler |
Nikki Hood |
Rink |
Crumpton |
Kantor |
Pensy |
M. Mann |
Thomason |
G. Mann |
| Georgia |
34-3 UGA |
27-24 CU |
23-21 CU |
24-17 CU |
29-20 UGA |
27-20 UGA |
28-21 UGA |
24-17 UGA |
17-14 CU |
27-21 UGA |
27-23 UGA |
| App State |
66-20 CU |
34-14 CU |
30-16 CU CU |
38-17 CU |
34-17 CU |
31-17 CU |
35-10 CU |
30-10 CU |
31-10 CU |
31-13 CU |
28-10 CU |
| NC State |
59-35 CU |
34-13 CU |
38-16 CU |
42-20 CU |
30-13 CU |
28-10 CU |
35-14 CU |
34-17 CU |
38-17 CU |
31-10 CU |
31-10 CU |
| Stanford |
40-14 CU |
44-20 CU |
48-17 CU |
38-10 CU |
44-16 CU |
42-14 CU |
41-17 CU |
45-17 CU |
48-21 CU |
40-20 CU |
41-17 CU |
| FSU |
29-13 CU |
41-13 CU |
42-10 CU |
42-17 CU |
38-16 CU |
35-14 CU |
40-14 CU |
55-7 CU |
44-20 CU |
31-16 CU |
45-14 CU |
| Wake Forest |
49-14 CU |
47-20 CU |
44-20 CU |
52-14 CU |
45-20 CU |
48-13 CU |
48-14 CU |
35-14 CU |
42-13 CU |
38-17 CU |
45-10 CU |
| Virginia |
48-31 CU |
38-16 CU |
42-17 CU |
38-17 CU |
44-20 CU |
45-14 CU |
47-14 CU |
45-17 CU |
45-13 CU |
42-20 CU |
41-17 CU |
| Louisville |
33-21 UL |
44-28 CU |
40-25 CU |
45-24 CU |
40-21 CU |
34-21 CU |
49-31 CU |
37-27 CU |
42-27 CU |
41-28 CU |
38-21 CU |
| Va Tech |
24-14 CU |
30-23 CU |
30-20 CU |
28-17 CU |
26-22 CU |
24-17 CU |
41-28 CU |
28-24 CU |
30-24 CU |
31-20 CU |
23-21 CU |
| Pitt |
24-20 CU |
27-16 CU |
31-17 CU |
28-12 CU |
31-16 CU |
31-21 CU |
35-17 CU |
27-20 CU |
34-24 CU |
24-21 CU |
31-17 CU |
| The Citadel |
51-14 CU |
52-6 CU |
44-14 CU |
55-7 CU |
44-7 CU |
56-7 CU |
46-14 CU |
45-10 CU |
42-17 CU |
52-17 CU |
56-17 CU |
| SC |
17-14 SC |
26-20 SC |
27-24 CU |
28-20 CU |
24-22 CU |
28-24 CU |
31-30 SC |
34-33 CU |
35-31 CU |
20-17 CU |
30-21 SC |
| SMU |
34-31 CU |
31-23 CU |
30-27 CU |
30-28 SMU |
27-23 SMU |
28-24 CU |
28-21 SMU |
24-20 CU |
27-24 CU |
31-24 SMU |
27-26 SMU |
| Points |
– |
14 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
19 |
11 |
* Points: 3 pts for best correct prediction of the week (tiebreaker is Clemson score), 2 pts for picking score exactly, 1 pt for picking the correct winner
