The Atlanta Hawks had a tough challenge against a Cavaliers lineup practically at full strength, but they met it and prevailed. Jalen Johnson continued to dazzle with his unique blend of scoring, rebounding and playmaking – he stuffed the stat sheet with a 29 point triple-double that also saw him grab 12 rebounds and dish out 12 assists. Nickeil Alexander-Walker also put on an incredible performance with 30 points and five made three-pointers. In the absence of Kristaps Porzingis, Onyeka Okongwu stepped up with 18 points, seven rebounds and four assists. It was the epitome of a team win and showed that the Hawks are very much a team that needs to be respected despite not having Trae Young back.

Young’s return is on the horizon as he’ll be re-evaluated in two weeks, but Atlanta has done a great job of holding serve and keeping ground in the Eastern Conference. They’ll have an opportunity to move up in the standings tonight against a familiar opponent in the Philadelphia 76ers. A disaster of a season for the 76ers last year landed them the third overall pick, but they’ve showed signs of being above that mark this season. They play hard and shouldn’t be discounted, but two of their highest-paid players in Joel Embiid and Paul George are out and working back from injury, respectively. Philly’s frontcourt has also been hit with injuries recently – both Kelly Oubre and Trendon Watford are out for this game after having capable starting performances for Philly this year. It’s fair to wonder whether the 76ers will ever be at full strength this year, but they certainly aren’t right now and it’s a good time to play them.

By the Numbers

The Hawks righted the ship after their disappointing performance against the Wizards and looked rather comfortable against the Cavaliers. They’re 16th in points, 5th in FG%, 9th in 3P%, 20th in FT%, 25th in rebounds (25th in OREB, 22nd in DREB), 1st in assists and 14th in turnovers per game. They’re 16th in offensive rating on the year, so the advanced metrics support the idea that they’ll be able to match up with most teams on that end.

Atlanta’s defense did enough to get the win against Cleveland and held the rest of the Cavs in check, but they still struggled to stop Donovan Mitchell from exploding for 42 points. On a per-game basis, the Hawks rank 15th in points allowed, 13th in FG% allowed, 9th in 3P% allowed, 23rd in rebounds allowed, 7th in steals and 6th in blocks. They’re 13th in defensive rating on the year, which puts them in an above-average tier.

Philadelphia’s offensive success lies in Tyrese Maxey and their strong backcourt, but they have felt the injury absences of Embiid and George. They’re 17th in points, 18th in FG%, 11th in 3P%, 9th in FT%, 17th in rebounds (12th in OREB, 18th in DREB), 18th in assists and 13th in turnovers per game. George has returned to the lineup and seems to be working his way back to his usual form, but he’s still on a minutes restriction and that holds Philadelphia back from unlocking a higher ceiling.

A relatively healthy Embiid is usually enough to keep Philadelphia in a solid tier defensively, but his absence and the lack of elite defensive talent unfortunately means they are a slightly below-average defense despite being the best shot-blocking team in basketball. They’re 18th in points allowed, 16th in FG% allowed, 8th in 3P% allowed, 14th in rebounds allowed, 23rd in steals and 1st in blocks. This should be a relatively soft matchup for the Hawks offense.

Three Reasons Atlanta Can Win This Game

Even though it seems pretty clear that Joel Embiid and Paul George are both past their prime, that ignores the fact that the 76ers are better when they play. Philadelphia has a positive on-off swing with both Embiid (1.2 points better) and Paul George (5.0 points better). They have a positive net rating in the two most common starting lineups with Embiid and a +9.5 net rating with their current best-case starting lineup of Maxey and Edgecombe working out of the backcourt while George and Grimes play on the wing. Embiid’s defense has declined, but he still demands a lot of attention on defense due to being able to score at all three levels. George should be avaliable for the 76ers against Atlanta, but he’s on a minutes restriction and likely won’t be able to play much in the second half. The 76ers are thin in the frontcourt and desperately need what George provides as a ball-handler, shooting option and defender with size. Not having to face both Embiid and George is a clear advantage for the Hawks.

One of the most consistent trends across the NBA that has emerged to begin the season is that the 76ers are, frankly, a horrendous third-quarter team. They’re 30th in points per game and net rating for the third quarter and there’s a good deal of separation in that metric. The Pelicans, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA, are 29th and they still have a net rating of -26.6 in the third quarter while the 76ers have a net rating of -28.9 in the same time period. Head coach Nick Nurse has consistently struggled to find ways to draw up successful plays for Philadelphia out of halftime and the players themselves have not performed well in that same time period. Even if the Hawks are down by halftime, they should have an excellent opportunity to get back into the game immediately following their adjustments.

While Paul George is a decent enough defender to match up with Jalen Johnson, Johnson will have ample opportunities to pick on former teammate Dominick Barlow in this matchup. Kelly Oubre and Trendon Watford would both be better defensive options, but neither is available for the 76ers tonight. Barlow has been better on defense since his stint in Atlanta – the 76ers have given up 4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions with Barlow on the court and he’s cut down on his fouling from 5.5% to 3.5%. However, he hasn’t faced a PF as good as Johnson yet and he’s a clear target for the Hawks in this one.

Three Reasons Atlanta Might Lose This Game

The Hawks just got torched by Donovan Mitchell and things aren’t necessarily going to get easier against the 76ers. While having two supermax players on the bench would sink most teams, Philadelphia has been able to stay afloat because Tyrese Maxey has been phenomenal to begin the season. He’s averaging 31.7 points, 7.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game on a career-high 61.3 TS%. The 76ers are 11.6 points per game better when Maxey is on the court, which is a better on-off than what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had last year for the OKC Thunder during his MVP season. Slowing down Maxey is going to be a tough job for Atlanta’s perimeter defense, particularly Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, to handle.

One of Philadelphia’s strengths is their deep backcourt and they could potentially have all four of their promising young guards available for the first time this year if VJ Edgecombe makes his return to the lineup. Beyond Maxey, Quentin Grimes has done an admirable job of taking ball-handler responsibilities and defensive responsibilities on the perimeter while maintaining his hot shooting from deep. Edgecome is struggling with his efficiency, but he’s still a tremendous athlete who threatens in transition and plays a tough brand of defense despite being a rookie. However, rookie sensation Jared McCain has stolen the show as of late after working himself back into game shape due to a meniscus tear that ended his rookie season prematurely. He’s boosted Philly’s bench by averaging 16.7 points on 45/47.4/83.3 shooting splits in his last three games.

While Philadelphia’s struggles in the third quarter are a worrying trend, they have also been excellent in the fourth quarter. They have the third-best offensive rating and the best net rating across the NBA in the final frame, which speaks to how many different shotmakers they have in their lineup. If the 76ers are in the game by the end of the third quarter, there is a very good chance they will be able to make up the difference in the fourth quarter. Centers Adem Bona and Andre Drummond have both been relatively solid presences as rim protectors and they’ve also been able to make some massive plays in the clutch through their hustle, rebounding and shot blocking.

Injury Report

Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young, N’Faly Dante, Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Durisic are all out.

Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid, Kelly Oubre and Trendon Watford are out while VJ Edgecombe and Andre Drummond are questionable.

How to Watch

Here is how you can watch tonight’s game:

Tip-off time: 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network

Projected Starting Lineups

Hawks

G – Dyson Daniels

G – Nickeil Alexander-Walker

F – Zaccharie Risacher

F – Jalen Johnson

C – Kristaps Porzingis

76ers

G – Tyrese Maxey

G – Quentin Grimes

F – Paul George

F – Dominick Barlow

C – Andre Drummond

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