The winner of tonight’s game between the Bulls and the Hawks will have their season still alive, while the loser will head into the offseason.

Atlanta is 3-0 all-time in the play-in tournament. They won games against Charlotte and Cleveland two years ago and then lost to the No. 1 Miami Heat in five games. Last year, Atlanta got their revenge against Miami, beating them in the first playoff game, and then losing to the No. 2 Boston Celtics in six games. The Hawks were 1-2 against Chicago this season. 

For Atlanta, they will be missing Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Saddiq Bey. Ayo Dosunmu and Andre Drummond are questionable for the Bulls. 

So who wins tonight’s matchup and sets up another win-or-go-home scenario with the loser of Philadelphia and Miami?

The Hawks have what it takes to be one of the best offenses in the NBA, but they have not really found that groove yet since Young has returned. Now, Atlanta has been pressing and facing a must-win scenario like they will tonight and I expect their offense to perform better because they are going to need them too. I think the offense is going to be the key tonight for Atlanta. 

In their last matchup on April 1st, the Hawks shot 19-40 from three and that was the biggest difference in the game and why they won by 12 points. Atlanta had huge quarters in the 2nd and third to be able to pull away from the Bulls. 

Atlanta is not going to have Vit Krejci in this game and he went 6-6 from three in the last game vs Chicago. Atlanta opted to not convert his two-way contract and will not have him, which could prove to be crucial. One thing to note about this game is that Atlanta is going to be very small without Johnson, Bey, Okongwu, or Krejci. 

Trae Young has been awesome in all three play-in games that he has played in and overall, has been a solid playoff performer (though the play-in is not recognized as the playoffs). Outside of the series against the Heat two years ago, Young has played well in every playoff series/play-in game that he has been in. He is still working his way back from being injured, but I think Young is going to be asked to play big minutes tonight vs Chicago. 

The other guy who will be playing huge minutes will be Dejounte Murray and I would not be surprised if the Hawks always have one of Young or Murray on the court at all times. Murray had to play huge minutes with Young out, but I don’t think that Quin Snyder is going to play either Kobe Bufkin or Trent Forrest tonight. 

While Young and Murray might be the Hawks’s best players in this game, De’Andre Hunter might be the most important Hawk for tonight and if the Hawks find a way to advance past this game. As mentioned earlier, Atlanta is going to be lacking size coming into this game and they are going to need Hunter to stay out of foul trouble. He is also going to be the team’s best defender and will spend plenty of time guarding DeMar DeRozan tonight, who might play all 48 minutes for the Bulls. Hunter can also be a big contributor on offense with his three-point shooting. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic is likely going to be in the starting lineup and he has been one of the best players for the Hawks this season. He will be very important on the offensive end and will likely play a huge amount of minutes tonight. 

Clint Capela was rested in the Hawks season finale vs the Pacers, but Atlanta will need him in this game. Both Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond (if he plays) are good rebounders and can beat the Hawks up in that area. Capela will be huge in terms of defense and rebounding and while the Hawks might not want to play him 35+ minutes, he might have too. 

The Hawks’s rotation is the most interesting thing about them tonight. I think the starters are all going to play at least 30-35 minutes at worst, but who will provide the Hawks with bench relief? I think Bruno Fernando is certainly going to get minutes, but how many will be based on his performance.  Fernando can bring energy and offense to some games, but he struggles on defense and the Bulls are going to go after him when he is on the floor. If he is holding up on that end of the court, I could see Fernando getting 20 minutes, that way Capela is not playing massive minutes. If he struggles defensively, Snyder will not have another choice but to play a lot of Capela. 

I think Snyder will also opt to play Garrison Matthews and Wesley Matthews. Wesley Matthews is no longer on the injury report and I think Snyder is going to rely upon his veteran experience. Garrison Matthews is the Hawks’s best three-point shooter and they will need his offense in this game. He is not the best defender though and will also get picked on when he is on the court. 

I don’t think Snyder is going to play Bufkin or Forrest and the other guys who he could turn to are AJ Griffin, Mouhamed Gueye, and Seth Lundy. Griffin has played in the last two games after coming back from injury, Gueye has seen his first actual minutes as part of the rotation, and Lundy has barely played for the Hawks this season. Of all of the players listed above, I actually think Gueye is the most likely to see minutes. He has athleticism and length and could be used to guard DeRozan if needed, but he just does not have a lot of experience. 

Griffin could be the best offensive option of the three, but he has defensive struggles and if he is not hitting his shots, it could be tough to rely on him out there. Keep an eye on what Snyder wants to do tonight. 

For the Bulls, DeRozan is going to be the key tonight, but don’t forget about Coby White. White has been one of the most improved players in the NBA this season, but only shot 8-21 in the last game vs the Hawks. I would expect Murray to guard him tonight. 

Either Dosunmu or Alex Caruso can get hot from three and have an effect on the game. Where Caruso is likely going to make his biggest impact is on the defensive end of the floor, where I expect he will spend a fair amount of time guarding Trae Young. Caruso is one of the best defenders in the NBA and will give Young all kinds of trouble, but Young will be looking for ways to shake him off and find ways to make an impact on the game. 

Look for the Hawks to put Nikola Vucevic in a lot of pick-and-rolls tonight and make him work on the defensive end. If Drummond does not play, Vucevic is the only center the team really has and will have to play a lot. Even if Drummond does play, the Hawks will attack him on the other end of the floor as well. 

The Bulls bench is a huge question mark in this game, especially if Drummond does not play. The starters will likely see huge minutes for Chicago. 

Viewing and Betting Information

Tip-off time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: United Center, Chicago, IL

Where to Watch: ESPN

Spread and Over/Under: The Hawks will be underdogs on the road tonight, as they are currently 3.5 point underdogs according to the latest odds from the SI Sportsbook and the over/under is set at 219.5.

Predictions

If the Hawks were healthy, I would feel pretty good about picking them to win this game. I still think they can win this game, but it is going to be tough. They will have to be sharp offensively, keep Hunter out of foul trouble, have Trae Young be the best player on the floor, and get something out of their bench tonight. DeRozan could have a huge game tonight, but I think Coby White might be the most important player for Chicago tonight. Atlanta has success in these types of games, with Trae Young typically giving huge performances. He has another one tonight and the Braves find a way to get to Friday night and keep their season alive.

Final Score: Atlanta 113, Chicago 108 (ATL +3.5, Over)