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State of the State 2024: Arkansas banks navigate uncertain interest rate landscape – Talk Business & Politics

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State of the State 2024: Arkansas banks navigate uncertain interest rate landscape – Talk Business & Politics


Editor’s note: The State of the State series provides reports twice a year on Arkansas’ key economic sectors. The series publishes stories to begin a year and stories in July/August to provide a broad mid-year update on the state’s economy. Link here for the State of the State page and previous stories.

According to the state’s top banking official, the uncertain interest rate environment is the most significant conversation topic entering the year.

“The rate environment is posing headwinds for many institutions, but tailwinds for others,” said Susannah Marshall, Arkansas State Bank Department commissioner. “Especially those that have structured their balance sheets to be in an asset sensitive position and to take advantage of repricing assets at higher interest rates.”

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Marshall said banks with strong mortgage divisions bore the brunt of the interest rate volatility in 2023 and will remain impacted until a downward movement emerges.

“I don’t want to attempt to predict what will happen with interest rates in 2024 or the timeframe of any potential rate decreases,” she said. “Regardless of whether we will see any additional increases or rates remain flat for the foreseeable future, I believe any potential declines could be further out in 2024.”

Marshall and other Arkansas banking leaders offered various thoughts on the industry entering 2024. According to the latest data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), 82 federally insured lenders doing business in Arkansas had a cumulative net income of $1.49 billion through the third quarter of 2023, up 4.1% from the previous year. The banks grew their combined assets robustly to $165.6 billion, up 7.3% year-over-year. Loan growth was even stronger at 13.8%. Construction loans accounted for a third of that growth, reflecting the vibrant economy.

Tim Yeager expects banks to remain strong — Arkansas’ average return on assets (ROA) of 1.23% is well above the benchmark ratio of 1% — but they are unlikely to match their 2023 performance.

“The lagged effect from high interest rates will lead to slower loan growth, an increase in problem loans, and a shortage of core [stable] deposits,” said Yeager, a finance professor who holds the Arkansas Bankers Association Chair in Banking at the University of Arkansas. His responsibilities include teaching, research and outreach to Arkansas bankers. “Loan demand will slow as businesses and consumers adjust to higher interest rates. In addition, borrowers will struggle to repay the higher interest payments on their debts, leading to more problem loans.”

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Like many analysts, Yeager said he expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the coming months, which will somewhat reduce the pressure on loan demand and funding costs. He said Arkansas bankers are most concerned about a longer-term issue: the ability to hire and maintain qualified workers. He noted that many top students in finance want careers in investment banking, primarily because they think they can make more money on Wall Street.

That might be true, but he tries to explain that there are other advantages of working for a bank.

“We need to get the message across that this is a soul-fulfilling career,” Yeager said. “You’re going to do well, but will you be a millionaire or a billionaire? It’s less likely. But you will have a much more balanced, satisfactory life by doing this.”

According to the American Bankers Association, Arkansas banks employ around 16,000 people at over 1,000 offices and branch locations and have around 5 million customers.

‘ARTIFICIAL’ ECONOMY
Simmons First National Corp. (Simmons Bank) of Pine Bluff is one of the state’s largest banks, with $27.5 billion in assets. It’s one of four Arkansas-based lenders with assets greater than $21 billion at the end of last year’s third quarter. Bank OZK of Little Rock ($32.7 billion), Arvest Bank of Fayetteville ($27.3 billion) and Centennial Bank of Conway ($21.8 billion) were the others.

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George Makris Jr. is the bank’s president and CEO. He said that after a decade marked by growth through acquisition, Simmons Bank is focused on organic growth and efficiency in 2024.

“We acquired 13 banks [in five states] in the past 10 years, which has given us access to some of the best markets,” he said. “We are improving our delivery channels and standardizing many internal functions. That combination should produce favorable financial results leading to capital growth and additional capacity to offer to our customers.”

Makris said the uncertainty around interest rates coupled with government spending and its upward pressure on inflation makes for an “artificial” economy, and that environment will trickle down to consumers.

“Banks are in the risk management business and will shift as much of the risk to the borrower as possible under uncertain times, which will restrict credit access,” he said. “That is more severe for the least credit-worthy borrowers. Loan funding costs and the cost of capital are also negative drivers of access to credit. That said, access to credit is still there for solid projects. Speculative projects will sit on the sidelines.”

Makris joked that his crystal ball has a crack in it, but he predicted that if inflation remains steady for the first half of the year – the current U.S. inflation rate is 3.4% for the 12-month period leading up to December 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – a modest rate reduction could come in late 2024.

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“However, this is an election year, and whether we like it or not, politics plays a role in many governmental decisions,” he said.

Makris also offered an opinion on artificial intelligence (AI) in banking.

“Banks are certainly aware of the proliferation of AI discussion,” he said. “That has driven much of the buzz for tech stocks. However, I believe we need to be very cautious and deliberate in advancing AI. It will be used for nefarious purposes well before we have maturity and risk protocols to mitigate bad actors.

“The other element not discussed much is who is teaching AI to deploy its logic. Banks have been using variations of AI to determine probability, relationships and other integrated data sets.”

Marshall also alluded to the increasing threat landscape regarding cyber risks and their impact on the industry.

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“This increasing risk also translates into increased costs and pressure on resources,” she said. “Unfortunately, many comments I have received lately center around bankers’ concerns about the increases in fraud attacks on their customers and the impact it is having on the industry.”



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Arkansas

A 21-year-old Arkansas man, formerly from Newaygo, died after crashing dirt bike into tree

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A 21-year-old Arkansas man, formerly from Newaygo, died after crashing dirt bike into tree


An Arkansas man died after crashing a dirt bike on Sunday.

The 21-year-old Arkansas man, formerly from Newaygo, crashed into a tree while riding a dirt bike on private property in Ashland Township near Grant on Sunday before 2:30 p.m., according to Michigan State Police (MSP) troopers.

Emergency responders tried to save his life but he died at the scene.

Troopers are still investigating but do not suspect drugs or alcohol as factors in the crash.

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MSP did not initially release any additional information.



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Arkansas softball heading to NCAA Tournament | Seed, opponent, regional info

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Arkansas softball heading to NCAA Tournament | Seed, opponent, regional info


FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas softball will once again host an NCAA Regional, this time as the No. 5 overall national seed.

The Razorbacks (42-11) will be the top seed in Fayetteville and open the tournament against fourth-seeded Fordham (27-26) at 4:30 p.m. on Friday, May 15.

Washington (36-18) is the two-seed and will face three-seed South Florida (42-15) that same day inside Bogle Park.

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Arkansas is paired with the Durham Regional hosted by Duke (39-14) for a potential super regional. Arizona (35-16), Marshall (37-17) and Howard (28-17) are joining the Blue Devils in the regional.

This is the sixth consecutive season the Razorbacks will host a regional. It is also the program’s eighth straight NCAA Tournament berth under coach Courtney Deifel. Arkansas has reached the NCAA tournament 14 times, and more than half of those appearances have come under Deifel.

Arkansas ended the season No. 1 in the RPI despite finishing seventh in the SEC standings. The Hogs were eliminated by Alabama in the conference tournament quarterfinals.

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Last year, Arkansas lost to SEC rival Ole Miss in the Super Regionals. The Hogs fell one win shy of reaching the Women’s College World Series for the first time in program history. They are hoping to take that elusive next step this summer and book a trip to Oklahoma City in two weeks time.

Jackson Fuller covers Arkansas football, basketball and baseball for the Southwest Times Record, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at jfuller@usatodayco.com or follow him @jacksonfuller16 on X, formerly known as Twitter. 



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Arkansas’ data race | Arkansas Democrat Gazette

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Arkansas’ data race | Arkansas Democrat Gazette


In the race to build data centers across Arkansas, the Google campus at West Memphis has taken the lead. Google is already hiring electrical engineers and facilities technicians.

I spent several days in West Memphis last summer to report on the amazing economic developments in Crittenden County. Those developments include the explosive growth of Southland Casino, a future Buc-ee’s location adjacent to Interstate 40, and a future water park and hotel complex known as Epic Resort. But even though an official announcement had not been made, city and county officials couldn’t help talking off the record about Google.

That announcement came in October when Google officials confirmed that they will spend $4 billion through the end of 2027. At the time, it was the largest private investment announcement in Arkansas history. The biggest previous capital investment was $3 billion spent on the recently completed Big River Steel II plant in south Mississippi County.

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West Memphis Mayor Marco McClendon believes the total investment by Google could wind up being $7 billion to $10 billion. McClendon said the first phase of the campus will employ about 300 people, with thousands working at the site at the peak of construction.

McClendon said property taxes on the site will produce millions of dollars per year for the West Memphis School District.

The project is being built on an 1,100-acre tract and is expected to take between 18 and 24 months to complete. The campus will include data center structures, office buildings, a power substation, and other infrastructure. In partnership with Entergy Corp., Google will cover the costs associated with powering the facilty. Laura Landreaux, president and CEO of Entergy Arkansas, said the project will “stimulate economic growth in northeast Arkansas and across the state.”

“This project is more than just jobs, buildings and technology,” McClendon said. “It’s about the future of our city, opportunity, investment and education.”

Laurel Brown, regional head of data center public affairs at Google, said: “We’re also working together to bring solar energy and battery storage resources online. We’ll integrate innovative load flexibility into our power contract to reduce our usage during times when the grid is constrained.”

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Google plans to invest $25 million to implement energy efficiency initiatives in this part of the Arkansas Delta. McClendon promises that there will be more announcements regarding what he calls a “community development agreement” between Google and the city. The energy efficiency program will focus on home weatherization, efficiency technology, and energy workforce development.

Google also announced that the University of Arkansas and Arkansas State University will be among the first cohort of what’s known as Google AI for Education Accelerators. Students, faculty and staff will be given access at no cost to Google career certificates and AI training classes.

The West Memphis project, however, didn’t stay atop the list of largest announced capital investments for long.

We learned in January that AVAIO Digital Partners of Connecticut will build a $6 billion facility just south of Little Rock. The 760-acre tract is north of 145th Street and west of Wrightsville. AVAIO officials said the cost could grow to more than $21 billion (think of the tax revenue a project that size could bring) if all elements are added. AVAIO officials said the user of the site will hire more than 500 employees during the next five years.

Sydney Sasser wrote in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette: “The center will be designed to host the computing, networking and data storage technologies (and the power infrastructure) that underpin cloud computing and artificial intelligence applications. … AVAIO plans to lease space in the data center to other data companies.”

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“It’s our intention that this extraordinary site in the Little Rock area will be both a major pole of data center capacity and an engine of sustained economic and technological momentum for Arkansas,” said Mark McComiskey, the AVAIO CEO.

As is the case in West Memphis, Entergy will supply power for the AVAIO campus.

Just two days after the AVAIO announcement, the Democrat-Gazette reported that Google is the company developing a data center at the nearby Port of Little Rock. Google had yet to announce its involvement in the project. Google is also expected to construct a data center at Conway.

A document that was later submitted by Google to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said the campus at the Port of Little Rock will consist of five industrial buildings totaling 1.43 million square feet, two office buildings and an electrical substation.

“Google’s center will also contain transmission lines, a sewer lift station and a parking lot,” Lucas Dufalla wrote in the Democrat-Gazette. “Construction will involve filling about 16.8 acres of wetlands. Google plans to purchase wetland mitigation credits as an offset, according to the application.”

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A revised public notice posted by the Corps said the data center at the port will “likely draw more than 100 megawatts of power.”

So we know Google will have at least three data center campuses in Arkansas–at West Memphis, Little Rock, and Conway. What we don’t know is how many billions of dollars Google eventually will invest in the state.

“Google is investing in the next generation of AI innovation in Arkansas and across the country,” said Ruth Porat, the company’s president and chief investment officer. “We see AI and the energy powering it to be the innovations that will define this century. The upside of AI cannot be unlocked without the energy it requires. That’s why Google is building energy capacity that protects affordability for ratepayers and creates jobs that will drive the AI-powered economy.”

Entergy’s Landreaux described the partnership between Google and Entergy as “a turning point for our state.”

In Clarksville, meanwhile, Serverfarm, a data center developer based in Los Angeles, has plans for a 135-acre campus. The project, located north of Interstate 40, could cost $8 billion with six buildings covering 2.16 million square feet. The land was acquired last October. It was then rezoned from rural to industrial use. The project is expected to be built in three phases. It’s not clear how much the first phase will cost.

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Serverfarm is building data center projects around the world. It’s owned by Manulife, the largest insurance company in Canada and one of the 30 largest fund managers in the world.

In southwest Arkansas, the Economic Development Corp. of Clark County voted last month to sell the 991-acre Southwest Arkansas Mega Site south of Arkadelphia to an unnamed buyer for a data center campus. Members of the board were told that the buyer would make a minimum investment of $1 billion.

Shelley Short, CEO of the Arkadelphia Regional Economic Development Alliance, said: “I’m incredibly excited, but we’ll have to be patient.”

The deal, however, quickly fell through. The Southwest Arkansas Mega Site is back on the market.

During last year’s legislative session, lawmakers changed the definition of data center projects that qualify for tax breaks. Act 548 added to the definition of a “qualified investment” to include a “qualified large data center” that can be but isn’t limited to “nonadjacent physical locations that are connected to each other by fiber and associated equipment.”

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Rex Nelson is a senior editor at the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.



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