Arkansas
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight — College Football Week 8
Photo By – Imagn Images. South Alabama running back Keenan Phillips (21) breaks a tackle.
Two Sun Belt teams looking for a win collide tonight as the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the South Alabama Jaguars.
The Red Wolves broke a four-game losing streak with a win over Texas State last time out, while South Alabama fell to Troy, marking its fifth loss in a row.
My Arkansas State vs. South Alabama predictions don’t expect much scoring from either side.
Find out more in my college football picks for Tuesday, October 14.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, with the game airing on ESPN2.
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Arkansas State vs South Alabama prediction
Arkansas State vs South Alabama best bet: Under 59.5 (-105)
I understand the thinking that two of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt colliding could allow for a ton of points — they each give up an identical 31.7 points per game — but the Arkansas State Red Wolves can’t hold up their end of the offensive bargain.
Arkansas State has seen the Under cash in four straight, and only once in that stretch were they able to touch the 60-point plateau, that being a 31-30 win over Texas State last time out.
The Red Wolves are scoring 23.3 points per game (11th in Sun Belt) and are next to last in rushing, averaging just 119 yards per game. It makes their pass offense — fifth in the conference — too predictable, even with a Top-5 ranking in the Sun Belt.
It won’t help that the South Alabama Jaguars are third in the conference in pass defense and a Top-60 team in the nation, allowing 169.2 passing yards.
South Alabama has a 4-2-0 Over record through its first six games of the season, but none of the last four games have gone higher than 58 points.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama same-game parlay
Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor has only passed for more than his 250.5-yard line twice this season, but he should remember last year’s performance against South Alabama.
He went 30-for-39 for 345 yards and a TD, only the fourth time he’s hit the 300-yard passing plateau in a game since the start of last year.
Those numbers came in an 18-16 win, so he can pass big while the score stays low.
Bishop Davenport has only topped 200 yards passing once in a game this season, so his 196.5 passing line is a fair number.
It’s a line he’s passed just twice in six games this season. His dual play has been more on the run side of late, running for at least 59 yards in three of the last five, including a season-high 72 yards on 15 carries and a TD.
South Alabama should find success against this poor Red Wolves’ run defense, keeping the ball on the ground more than airing it out.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama SGP
- Under 59.5
- Jaylen Raynor Over 250.5 passing yards
- Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Threading the needle
Chauncey Cobb has alternated between big games and sub-par efforts, and he’s coming off a seven-catch, 39-yard effort against Texas State. This was after a 126-yard game against ULM. It’s been like this all year, so a bigger effort is in store against South Alabama.
Meanwhile, Kentrel Bullock leads the Jaguars with five TDs on the season, though he’s coming off a scoreless Saturday against Troy. He has yet to go back-to-back games without a major this season.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama SGP
- Under 59.5
- Jaylen Raynor Over 250.5 passing yards
- Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 passing yards
- Chauncey Cobb Over 63.5 receiving yards
- Kentrel Bullock anytime TD
Arkansas State vs South Alabama game predictions
Arkansas State vs South Alabama moneyline prediction
I don’t advise taking the moneyline on either school, as they have three wins between them in 12 games, and any scenario is in play.
Arkansas State just knocked off Texas State, the highest-scoring team with the top running attack in the Sun Belt. And yet, it’s getting +200 odds for an outright win against a team that’s lost five straight?
There are too many variables for my liking in picking a winner straight-up here. If pressed, I lean toward South Alabama.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama spread prediction
I’d recommend steering clear of this spread, because a bevy of factors can come into play when you’re wagering on teams that are likely already out of the college football postseason picture.
However, if I were forced to wager on this, I’d be looking at the Red Wolves’ inability to cover on the road as a major factor, as they are currently 0-3-0 against the spread in away games.
South Alabama is 0-3-0 ATS as a betting favorite, but they do have the better offensive options in both the passing and rushing games.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Over/Under prediction
While neither defense is inspiring, the offenses aren’t good enough to capitalize, so the Under remains the play here and as our best bet.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama odds
- Spread: Arkansas State +6.5 (+100) | South Alabama -6.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Arkansas State +205 | South Alabama -250
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-115) | Under 59.5 (-105)
Arkansas State vs South Alabama trend to know
The Jaguars have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs South Alabama.
How to watch Arkansas State vs South Alabama
| Location | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date | Tuesday, October 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Arkansas State vs South Alabama latest injuries
Arkansas State vs South Alabama weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Michigan State basketball got off to a shaky start on Monday, using a late run to fend of Colgate in an 80-69 win. After the game, head coach Tom Izzo said his team would get “embarrassed” in their next game if they do not play better.
That next game for the 22nd-ranked Spartans is against No. 14 Arkansas. This will be the first ranked-versus-ranked non-conference game in the Breslin Center since No. 11 MSU faced No. 10 Duke on Dec. 3, 2019.
Looking at the Razorbacks, big, sweeping statements are never great to be made after Game 1, but Arkansas looked like a stronger team than last year’s during its season opener. On Monday, the Razorbacks crushed Southern, 109-77, to reach 1-0.
During the first year of the John Calipari era, Arkansas was a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, reached the Sweet 16, but blew a 13-point lead with less than five minutes left against Texas Tech with an Elite Eight spot at stake.
Scoring 109 points in a college basketball game is always tough. Southern is not exactly an opponent that spooks many power-conference teams, but the Jaguars are actually the top-ranked team in the SWAC on KenPom and are a couple of spots above Colgate.
Three different Razorbacks scored at least 20 points, two of whom were freshmen guards. A senior forward, Trevon Brazile, led the team with a career-high 25 points and 11 rebounds.
Both freshmen entered as five-star recruits as part of Calipari’s 5th-ranked class, according to 247Sports. Darius Acuff Jr. had a monster first half, scoring 20 of his 22 points on the day during the initial 20 minutes.
Meleek Thomas had 21 points, seven assists, and three steals during his collegiate debut.
The other Razorback with 10+ points was another freshman, Isaiah Sealy. He was a four-star recruit in Arkansas’ latest recruiting class.
Calipari’s squad nearly led this game wire-to-wire. Southern’s only lead was 2-0, and Arkansas was up by at least 10 during the final 31:31 of game time. The Razorbacks certainly played like a team that deserves, at the very least, their No. 14 ranking.
A quick thing that stands out is that Arkansas looks like a good shot-making team that also has some athleticism. Acuff made some impressive shots during his 22-point day, including a few from deep.
Brazile against MSU’s Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper will also be a critical matchup, as he is a lob threat every time the Razorbacks push the ball up the court. His rebounding will also be a factor.
Keep up with all our content when you follow the official Spartan Nation page on Facebook, Spartan Nation, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be sure to share your thoughts on MSU’s upcoming game against Arkansas when you join our community group, Go Green Go White, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE. Don’t forget to give us a follow on X @MSUSpartansOnSI as well.
Boogie Fland knows he still isn’t as strong as he needs to be.
He’s getting closer, though, after packing on 13 pounds of muscle from last season, when he averaged 13.5 points and 5.1 assists for the Razorbacks but struggled against more physical SEC teams. The freshman’s slight frame took its toll alongside an undisclosed hernia injury and more public thumb injury.
On Monday night against No. 13 Arizona, Boogie Fland made his Florida basketball debut in a newly retooled Gators backcourt. The thumb issue was all gone; the strength shortcoming wasn’t. The 6’2” guard made an impressive and-one fastbreak bucket through contact in second half surge but still had trouble finishing in the teeth of a stout interior defense, at one point seeing an attempt near the paint obliterated by swarming Wildcats.
Fland finished with 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals but alongside fellow guard Xavian Lee struggled to convert from the field. Fland shot 3-of-9, Lee made 5-of-17 and if the No. 3 Gators have any hope of repeating as national champions, those two must do better.
The backcourt duo’s shooting cost them dearly on Monday against Arizona in a 6-point loss. Despite missing both three-point attempts, expect Fland to improve his outside shooting as the season goes on. Adding weight now the season’s underway will be much harder.
The 19-year-old is still about five or so pounds under his target of 190 pounds. As he described it to The Gainesville Sun’s Kevin Brockway, is the weight threshold for a “real SEC guard.”
Anthony Black Couldn’t Pass On Saying This
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Anthony Black would agree.
The 6’7” point guard played at over 200 pounds in his single spectacular season for the Razorbacks in 2022-23, racking up 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.1 steals per game and leading the Hogs to the Sweet 16.
Black stood out as Arkansas’ clear-cut floor general, something the program has lacked for the following two seasons.
That’s something he pointed out to Arkansas basketball fans on Monday night while watching Darius Acuff stake his claim as the best point guard the Hogs have had since Black. Acuff racked up 23 points on hyper efficient shooting but, more importantly, has in the last few weeks played in a way that spread the love and consistently made his teammates better.
Black, who now lives with down the road from Fland while playing for the Orlando Magic, took notice:
It didn’t take long for Black to delete this point guard assessment as he likely realized folks were taking it the wrong way. Black didn’t mean this as a specific slight against Fland as a Razorback last year playing alongside “TB,” or Trevon Brazile. More likely than that, Black wasn’t criticizing anybody in particular but simply pointing out the obvious: none of Arkansas’ primary ballhandlers through the last two seasons have also looked fully comfortable as a distributor.
That includes El Ellis, Devo Davis, DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis, too.
Still, none of those others entered the program with as lofty of a reputation as a “real” point guard.
As a freshman, Fland actually surpassed Black from an individual standpoint when averaging 13.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists in his freshman season. But then went through a similarly frustrating episode of injury/trying-to-play-through-injury/getting indefinitely sidelined as Nick Smith Jr., Black’s backcourt mate at Arkansas.
Both Fland (thumb) and Smith (knee) both suffered persistent injuries that kept them out for many weeks at Arkansas. Both players suffered slings and arrows from some fans who felt they were sitting out to preserve their draft stock instead of putting on the line for their teams.
Both talented guards tried to come back at the end of the season, playing limited roles in big upsets of Kansas in the NCAA Tournament. But neither looked anywhere close to their normal selves.
Smith, a central Arkansas native, never publicly vented about the negativity he got while sitting out for so long. “He knows he’s not delivering,” sportscaster Mike Irwin posted. “He’s hurting. He’s an Arkansas kid and he loves that Hog as much as any of you. Give him some space and he might just find himself before this season is over.”
Fland, meanwhile, didn’t grow up as a Razorback fan. He didn’t have lifelong friends around him in Fayetteville, nor a family he could easily visit just down the interstate.
Still, Fland recalls, things started well in Fayetteville.
“When I was on the court, everybody loved me,” said on his YouTube channel. “Everybody calling and texting me saying, ‘Oh you’re gone [to the NBA draft] this year,’ ‘Keep going’ and this and that.”
Temperature Plummets around Arkansas Basketball
Then, in January, things turned cold.
“As soon as I got hurt and wasn’t able to do what I do in the court, nobody checked in. Nobody texted me like ‘You good? How’s your hand?’”
A bit later, he added: “I didn’t get that same love and support that I got when I was on the court than when I was off the court. I feel like that was one of the toughest lessons for me, because it just goes to show the love wasn’t real.”
Here’s where Fland, frankly, probably would have felt more supported attending St. John’s closer to his home. In that scenario, even if he’d suffered the same injury, he’d have been surrounded by friends and family.
As it was, he felt somewhat betrayed by certain Arkansas basketball fans and hangers on who only wanted to be around in the good times.
Just like with Nick Smith Jr., though, all of that is behind him now.
Smith, despite that single, rough season in college and getting cut by the NBA team which drafted him, is now bouncing back in a big way. He racked up 25 points to play the hero in the Los Angeles Lakers’ Monday night win vs Portland.
Fland, too, may be on the cusp of a turnaround coming out of Florida’s loss to Arizona.
“God has a time for me,” he said on his channel. “He has a different journey for me.”
“I just learned to embrace it and try to understand where He’s coming from and try to look at the different picture, try to look at things in a different way instead of in a negative way.”
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Boogie Fland talks about the fake love at 13:30 below:
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More coverage of Arkansas basketball and Boogie Fland from BoAS…
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