Arkansas basketball needs to win five games in five days to play in the NCAA Tournament, and any dream run will begin with a victory over Vanderbilt.

The No. 12 Razorbacks (15-16) will face the No. 13 Commodores (9-22) on Wednesday evening in the first round of the SEC Basketball Tournament. The winner will face No. 5 South Carolina in Thursday’s second round.

More: Arkansas basketball SEC Tournament prediction: How far will the Razorbacks go?

More: Arkansas basketball senior Khalif Battle hints he could return to Razorbacks next season

Vanderbilt beat Arkansas in the teams’ matchup earlier this year. The Commodores erased an early 10-point deficit and then hung on at the end to stun the Razorbacks in Fayetteville.

Here are two things to watch and a prediction for the Arkansas-Vanderbilt rematch in the SEC Basketball Tournament.

Arkansas basketball’s make-or-miss simplicity

Can the Razorbacks convert open shots? It sounds elementary, but the answer will be a huge factor in whether Arkansas advances to Thursday’s second round or watches its season come to a close in the first round.

Vanderbilt gifted Arkansas good looks at three in the teams’ previous meeting. The Hogs began the game 4-of-20 from three, which led to a double-digit Vanderbilt lead. Arkansas finished the game by making six of its final 10 attempts, leading to a furious comeback that fell just short.

Khalif Battle, Jeremiah Davenport and Tramon Mark must capitalize if Vanderbilt employs a similar scheme in the SEC Tournament. The Hogs have scored at least 80 points in five straight games, but they’ve only shot 33.3% from three in that span.

Hogs must fare better again Ven-Allen Lubin

Vanderbilt’s center scored 19 points and grabbed 12 rebounds during the Commodores victory inside Bud Walton Arena. He shot 9-for-10 from the field and made a real difference with five offensive rebounds.

The Commodores consistently have good guard play from the likes of Ezra Manjon and Tywin Lawrence, who both scored more than 20 points in the earlier meeting. Arkansas can’t let Lubin make it a big three.

Prediction: Arkansas 83, Vanderbilt 77

The Razorbacks will play just enough defense to knock off the Commodores and face South Carolina on Thursday. Look for Trevon Brazile to be an X-factor. The stretch-four is coming off arguably his best SEC game of the season in the loss to Alabama over the weekend.