Science
Why the Odds of an Asteroid Striking Earth in 2032 Keep Going Up (and Down)
Since December, astronomers have been carefully studying whether an asteroid between 130 and 300 feet long will impact the Earth in just under eight years. And the odds, overall, seem to be rising.
On Jan. 29, the chances of this asteroid (named 2024 YR4) striking our planet on Dec. 22, 2032, were 1.3 percent. Then they rose to 1.7 percent on Feb. 1, before dropping the next day to 1.4 percent.
Then on Thursday, they leaped to 2.3 percent, before slipping slightly to 2.2 percent on Friday. That’s a one-in-45 chance of an impact (but also a 44-in-45 chance of a miss).
To many, this feels unsettling. But what appears scary is, in fact, typical when it comes to newly discovered near-Earth asteroids.
“It is true that the probability of impact has doubled recently, but that doesn’t mean that it will keep doing so,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California who is involved in overseeing the programs that make these orbital calculations. “What matters is that the probability of impact is very small, and that it is likely to drop to zero as we keep observing 2024 YR4.”
Two key organizations are involved in calculating these impact odds. They are the NASA center Dr. Farnocchia works at, and the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre in Italy, which is part of the European Space Agency. These groups are the cartographers of near-Earth space, looking out for parts of the cosmic map where they can mark “here be dragons” — in this case, potentially hazardous asteroids or comets.
When an asteroid (or a comet) is discovered, both centers use their automated orbital dynamics software (Scout and Sentry for NASA, and Meerkat and Aegis for the European center) to consider the available observations of the object.
When the asteroid’s many possible future orbits are plotted out, some may result in an Earth impact. But many of these orbits will shift away from Earth, so the probability of an impact will be low. It’s as if the asteroid has a wide spotlight that’s beaming out ahead of it. Earth is initially caught in the beam, but so is a lot of the space around it.
Then, more observations come in. The spotlight of those possible orbits shrinks. The outliers are gone. But Earth is still in the spotlight and now takes up proportionally more space in it. “Earth now covers a larger fraction of the uncertainty, and so the probability of impact has gone up,” Dr. Farnocchia said.
This can happen for some time as observations continue. “That’s why the impact probability rises,” said Juan Luis Cano, an aerospace engineer with the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre. “Little by little, it grows.” And it explains what’s been happening with 2024 YR4’s odds.
Sometimes, as has been the case for 2024 YR4, the odds can fluctuate slightly. This is because the quality of some observations can be better or worse than others, which can move the cluster of anticipated orbits around a bit. “All this is expected,” Dr. Farnocchia said.
Normally, additional observations significantly reduce the orbital uncertainty, and Earth falls out of that trajectory — dropping the impact odds to zero. Humanity will have to see whether the same outcome awaits 2024 YR4.
Telescopes can observe 2024 YR4 until April, after which time it will be too distant and faint to see until another Earth flyby in 2028. By April, it’s likely that astronomers will have enough observations of the asteroid, spread across several months, to know its orbit precisely, and they will ultimately determine that no impact will occur in 2032. “People should not be worried at this point,” Mr. Cano said.
Nevertheless, 2024 YR4 is being taken seriously by NASA and ESA. “Even though the probability of impact is small, it is larger than we usually find for other asteroids,” Dr. Farnocchia said.
If this asteroid were to hit Earth, it would unleash a destructive force similar to a nuclear bomb. And the current uncertainty over its future orbit extends to its possible impact locations, which include a mix of uninhabited, sparsely populated and densely populated areas: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.
2024 YR4 is unlikely to be on a collision course. But “we don’t get to choose when the next significant asteroid impact will be,” Dr. Farnocchia said. “We just don’t want to take any chances, and so we will keep tracking 2024 YR4.”
And if it does become a problem, it may be time for Earth to rally anti-asteroid defenses.
Robin George Andrews is the author of “How to Kill an Asteroid,” a book about the science of planetary defense.
Science
Pentagon Releases Files on U.F.O.s
The Pentagon released what it called “new, never-before-seen” files on U.F.O.s on Friday, hailing the step as an example of the commitment of the department, which kicked out reporters earlier this year, to transparency.
“No other president or administration in history has followed through on this level of U.A.P. transparency,” the Pentagon said in a news release, referring to what the Defense Department calls unidentified anomalous phenomena but what most people call U.F.O.s, or unidentified flying objects.
The collection is being “housed,” the release said, at war.gov/ufo. Files will be released on a rolling basis.
The initial files are murky still images that show what could be anything. In one, a cluster of dots appear on the screen. In another, there are some strangely shaped objects.
President Trump on social media framed the release as fulfilling a promise to the public: “Whereas previous Administrations have failed to be transparent on this subject, with these new Documents and Videos, the people can decide for themselves, “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?””
In 2017 The New York Times reported that the Pentagon had a secret and classified program, which began in 2007, that investigated reports of unidentified flying objects. Since then, there has been a push from lawmakers for the government to declassify its work on U.F.O.s.
Former representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, took to social media to deride the release, calling it “‘look at the shiny object’ propaganda” while the administration waged foreign wars.
“Unless they roll out live aliens and test demo UFOs or actually admit what we know this really is then I have way better things to do on this Friday,” she wrote.
Science
Video: Pentagon Releases U.F.O. Files
new video loaded: Pentagon Releases U.F.O. Files
By Jorge Mitssunaga
May 8, 2026
Science
Trump Plans to Fire F.D.A. Commissioner Marty Makary
President Trump has signed off on a plan to fire Dr. Marty Makary, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, after a series of clashes over vaping, oversight of the abortion pill and a series of new drug application denials that rattled biotech companies, according to a person briefed on the matter, who was not authorized to discuss it publicly.
Dr. Makary had a high profile for an F.D.A. commissioner, appearing frequently on television and podcasts to sell the work he was doing at the agency on improving the food supply, speeding up some drug approvals and trying to restore agency morale after thousands of staff members left.
He tried to walk the tightrope between the business-friendly Make America Great Again movement, pledging to get rid of regulations that slow down innovation and to attract more drug trials to the United States. He was an ally of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make American Healthy Again supporters, voicing the skepticism of the pharmaceutical industry and authorizing natural food dyes.
Ultimately, Dr. Makary’s efforts were not enough to overcome the grievances of a growing band of enemies focused on selling tobacco, opposing abortion and seeing biotech therapies authorized.
Mr. Trump’s decision to dismiss him was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The decision could still change, given Mr. Trump’s propensity to change his mind Dr. Makary has also proven persuasive with Mr. Trump in beating back previous efforts to oust him.
Leaving the White House Friday evening, Mr. Trump dismissed the idea that Dr. Makary would be fired.
“I’ve been reading about it, but I know nothing about it,” he said.
The White House has pressured Dr. Makary for months to authorize flavored e-cigarettes, according to a person close to the conversations. The approvals were a top wish of major tobacco companies that have been top donors to Mr. Trump. In March, the F.D.A. issued a memo saying that it would only authorize e-cigarettes in flavors such as mint, tea and spices. The memo said the fruit and candy flavors would be unlikely to pass muster, given their appeal to young people.
Pressure continued, though, and on Tuesday the F.D.A. authorized blueberry and mango flavored e-cigarettes by Glas, a small company based in Los Angeles.
Abortion foes including Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America have continued to turn up the heat on Dr. Makary, reiterating their call for his firing on Thursday. The group’s leaders and others view Dr. Makary as dragging his feet on a safety review of the abortion pill mifepristone, which they viewed as a way to highlight what they believe are dangers of the drug. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who also opposes abortion rights, amplified criticism of Dr. Makary on social media as well.
The administration has been under pressure from conservatives to tighten regulations on the prescribing and dispensing of mifepristone. The Supreme Court is reviewing a federal appeals court ruling that temporarily blocked abortion providers from prescribing the drug through telemedicine and sending it to patients by mail.
Biotech companies and their investors have also raised alarms with the White House about agency decisions to reject a series of treatments for rare diseases. The F.D.A. typically turns down about 20 percent of the applications it receives for drug approvals from companies.
Dr. Makary has been aggressive in defending the decisions, which he said came from career scientists who found the medications ineffective.
Dr. Makary also had to contend with a health secretary who seemed to view the F.D.A. as an avenue for getting his favored products authorized, exemplified by Mr. Kennedy’s social media post saying that the agency would end its “war on” stem cell treatments, peptides and raw milk. Mr. Kennedy pushed the F.D.A. to reverse a 2023 ban and allow the use of a number of peptides, unproven compounds purported to offer anti-aging or muscle-recovery benefits.
Before leading the F.D.A., Dr. Makary was a cancer surgeon and health policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. He was also the author of several books about the health care system.
Some of Dr. Makary’s more popular moves included encouraging broader use of hormone replacement products for women and lifting the F.D.A.’s warnings on them. He helped speed some promising drugs to market, including a pancreatic cancer therapy and the pill form of the popular GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
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