Science
Why the Odds of an Asteroid Striking Earth in 2032 Keep Going Up (and Down)

Since December, astronomers have been carefully studying whether an asteroid between 130 and 300 feet long will impact the Earth in just under eight years. And the odds, overall, seem to be rising.
On Jan. 29, the chances of this asteroid (named 2024 YR4) striking our planet on Dec. 22, 2032, were 1.3 percent. Then they rose to 1.7 percent on Feb. 1, before dropping the next day to 1.4 percent.
Then on Thursday, they leaped to 2.3 percent, before slipping slightly to 2.2 percent on Friday. That’s a one-in-45 chance of an impact (but also a 44-in-45 chance of a miss).
To many, this feels unsettling. But what appears scary is, in fact, typical when it comes to newly discovered near-Earth asteroids.
“It is true that the probability of impact has doubled recently, but that doesn’t mean that it will keep doing so,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California who is involved in overseeing the programs that make these orbital calculations. “What matters is that the probability of impact is very small, and that it is likely to drop to zero as we keep observing 2024 YR4.”
Two key organizations are involved in calculating these impact odds. They are the NASA center Dr. Farnocchia works at, and the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre in Italy, which is part of the European Space Agency. These groups are the cartographers of near-Earth space, looking out for parts of the cosmic map where they can mark “here be dragons” — in this case, potentially hazardous asteroids or comets.
When an asteroid (or a comet) is discovered, both centers use their automated orbital dynamics software (Scout and Sentry for NASA, and Meerkat and Aegis for the European center) to consider the available observations of the object.
When the asteroid’s many possible future orbits are plotted out, some may result in an Earth impact. But many of these orbits will shift away from Earth, so the probability of an impact will be low. It’s as if the asteroid has a wide spotlight that’s beaming out ahead of it. Earth is initially caught in the beam, but so is a lot of the space around it.
Then, more observations come in. The spotlight of those possible orbits shrinks. The outliers are gone. But Earth is still in the spotlight and now takes up proportionally more space in it. “Earth now covers a larger fraction of the uncertainty, and so the probability of impact has gone up,” Dr. Farnocchia said.
This can happen for some time as observations continue. “That’s why the impact probability rises,” said Juan Luis Cano, an aerospace engineer with the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre. “Little by little, it grows.” And it explains what’s been happening with 2024 YR4’s odds.
Sometimes, as has been the case for 2024 YR4, the odds can fluctuate slightly. This is because the quality of some observations can be better or worse than others, which can move the cluster of anticipated orbits around a bit. “All this is expected,” Dr. Farnocchia said.
Normally, additional observations significantly reduce the orbital uncertainty, and Earth falls out of that trajectory — dropping the impact odds to zero. Humanity will have to see whether the same outcome awaits 2024 YR4.
Telescopes can observe 2024 YR4 until April, after which time it will be too distant and faint to see until another Earth flyby in 2028. By April, it’s likely that astronomers will have enough observations of the asteroid, spread across several months, to know its orbit precisely, and they will ultimately determine that no impact will occur in 2032. “People should not be worried at this point,” Mr. Cano said.
Nevertheless, 2024 YR4 is being taken seriously by NASA and ESA. “Even though the probability of impact is small, it is larger than we usually find for other asteroids,” Dr. Farnocchia said.
If this asteroid were to hit Earth, it would unleash a destructive force similar to a nuclear bomb. And the current uncertainty over its future orbit extends to its possible impact locations, which include a mix of uninhabited, sparsely populated and densely populated areas: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.
2024 YR4 is unlikely to be on a collision course. But “we don’t get to choose when the next significant asteroid impact will be,” Dr. Farnocchia said. “We just don’t want to take any chances, and so we will keep tracking 2024 YR4.”
And if it does become a problem, it may be time for Earth to rally anti-asteroid defenses.
Robin George Andrews is the author of “How to Kill an Asteroid,” a book about the science of planetary defense.

Science
How Bees, Beer Cans and Data Solve the Same Packing Problem

Animation of the same plastic spheres disappearing one at a time.
A holy grail in pure mathematics is sphere packing in higher dimensions. Almost nothing has been rigorously proven about it, except in dimensions 1, 2 and 3.
That’s why it was such a breakthrough when, in 2016, a young Ukrainian mathematician named Maryna Viazovska solved the sphere-packing problem in eight dimensions, and later, with collaborators, in 24 dimensions.
Science
Union presses California’s key bird flu testing lab for records

The union representing workers at a UC Davis lab that tests and tracks bird flu infections in livestock has sued the university, demanding that records showing staffing levels and other information about the lab’s operations be released to the public.
Workers in the lab’s small biotechnology department had raised concerns late last year about short staffing and potentially bungled testing procedures as cases of avian flu spread through millions of birds in turkey farms and chicken and egg-laying facilities, as well as through the state’s cattle herds.
The University Professional and Technical Employees-CWA Local 9119 said that it requested records in December 2024 in an attempt to understand whether the lab was able to properly service the state’s agribusiness.
But UC Davis has refused to release records, in violation of California’s public records laws, the union alleged in a lawsuit recently filed in Alameda County Superior Court.
UC Davis spokesperson Bill Kisliuk declined to comment on the lawsuit’s specific allegations.
“The university looks forward to filing our response in court. We are grateful for the outstanding work of the CAHFS lab staff, including UPTE-represented workers, during the 2024 surge in avian flu testing,” Kisliuk said in an email.
UC Davis has previously denied that workplace issues have left the lab ill-equipped to handle bird flu testing. Kisliuk had said the facility “maintained the supervision, staffing and resources necessary to provide timely and vital health and safety information to those asking us to perform tests.”
According to copies of email correspondence cited in the lawsuit, UC Davis in January denied the union’s request for records regarding short staffing or testing errors, calling the request “unduly burdensome.” It also denied its request for information about farms and other businesses that had samples tested at the lab, citing an exemption to protect from an “invasion of personal privacy.”
Workers at the lab had previously told The Times that they observed lapses in quality assurance procedures, as well as other mistakes in the testing process.
Amy Fletcher, a UC Davis employee and president of the union’s Davis chapter, said the records would provide a necessary window into how staffing levels could be hurting farms and other businesses that rely on the lab for testing. Fletcher said workers have become afraid to speak about problems at the lab, having been warned by management that the some information related to testing is confidential.
The Davis lab is the only entity in the state with the authority to confirm bird flu cases.
The union, known as UPTE, represents about 20,000 researchers and other technical workers across the University of California system’s 10 campuses.
Science
Newsom's podcast sidekick: a single-use plastic water bottle

Johnny had Ed. Conan had Andy. And Gov. Gavin Newsom? A single-use plastic water bottle.
In most of the YouTube video recordings of Newsom’s new podcast, “This is Gavin Newsom,” a single-use plastic water bottle lurks on a table nearby.
Sometimes, it is accompanied by a single-use coffee cup. Other times, it stands alone.
Typically, such product placement would raise nary an eyebrow. But in recent weeks, environmentalists, waste advocates, lawmakers and others have been battling with the governor and his administration over a landmark single-use plastic law that Newsom signed in 2022, but which he has since worked to defang — reducing the number of packaged single-use products the law was designed to target and potentially opening the door for polluting forms of recycling.
Anti-plastic advocates say it’s an abrupt and disappointing pivot from the governor, who in June 2022, decried plastic pollution and the plague of single-use plastic on the environment.
“It’s like that whole French Laundry thing all over again,” said one anti-plastic advocate, who didn’t want to be identified for fear of angering the governor. Newsom was infamously caught dining without a mask at the wine country restaurant during the COVID-19 lockdown.
Newsom’s efforts to scale back SB 54, the state’s single-use plastic recycling law, has dismayed environmentalists who have long considered Newsom one of their staunchest allies.
“Our kids deserve a future free of plastic waste and all its dangerous impacts … No more,” Newsom said in 2022, when he signed SB 54. “California won’t tolerate plastic waste that’s filling our waterways and making it harder to breathe. We’re holding polluters responsible and cutting plastics at the source.”
Asked about the presence of the plastic water bottle, Daniel Villaseñor, the governor’s deputy director of communications, had this response:
“Are you really writing a story this baseless or should we highlight this video for your editor?” Villaseñor said via email, attaching a video clip showing this reporter seated near a plastic water bottle at last year’s Los Angeles Times’ Climate Summit. (The bottles were placed near chairs for all the panelists; this particular one was never touched.)
After this story was first published, the governor’s office said the plastic water bottles seen on the podcast were placed there by staff or production teams and not at Newsom’s request, and that the governor remains committed to seeing SB 54 implemented.
More than a half-dozen environmentalists and waste advocates asked to comment for this story declined to speak on the record, citing concerns including possible retribution from the governor’s office and appearing to look like scolds as negotiations over implementing SB 54 continue.
Dianna Cohen, the co-founder and chief executive of Plastic Pollution Coalition, said that while she wouldn’t comment on the governor and his plastic sidekick, she noted that plastic pollution is an “urgent global crisis” that requires strong policies and regulations.
“Individuals — especially those in the public eye — can help shift culture by modeling these solutions. We must all work to embrace the values we want to see and co-create a healthier world,” she said in a statement.
On Thursday, Newsom dropped a new episode of “This is Gavin Newsom” with independent journalist Aaron Parnas. In the video, there wasn’t a plastic bottle in sight.
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