Science
Scientists struggle to understand the competition between Omicron and Delta
Because the pandemic’s third yr dawns, People are feeling fatigued and confused. And it’s all Omicron’s fault.
Even scientists are deeply unsure about how rapidly and even whether or not the brand new variant will eclipse Delta, in addition to who’s more likely to fall sick with which variant and the way sick these folks will change into.
“It does really feel like Omicron has modified all the things we thought we knew” concerning the virus, mentioned Dr. Megan Ranney, affiliate dean of Brown College’s College of Public Well being. “This appears like an odd turning level, probably, within the pandemic.”
Clues concerning the pandemic’s subsequent part have begun to emerge, however they’ve been conflicting and vulnerable to error. Torrents of recent information and statistics tumble out each day, however what they imply isn’t all the time clear. Some appear fairly reassuring, others deeply alarming.
In the meantime, selections must be made: Go to grandma in her nursing house? Attend that New 12 months’s gathering? Wait hours in line for a COVID check since you awakened with a scratchy throat? Ship your child again to varsity when she may be despatched house in two weeks? Put on a masks … in all places?
Right here’s what we find out about Omicron and the state of the pandemic — and what we don’t.
New infections
The US has notched a brand new excessive in confirmed infections, with a median of 277,241 new instances a day for the final full week of 2021.
The earlier document was 259,759, set early final January. Per week later, each day COVID-19 deaths reached their zenith of 4,048, and for the following month that determine hardly ever fell under 2,000.
As worrisome as that historical past sounds, it’s unlikely to repeat itself, as a result of there are stark variations between then and now. Most significantly, the variety of People who’re totally vaccinated has gone from about 350,000 to greater than 204 million, with 68 million of these having additionally obtained a booster shot.
Hospitalizations
Amongst folks over 65, the vaccinated are six instances much less probably than the unvaccinated to be hospitalized for COVID-19. The distinction is twice that for folks 18 to 49.
The advantage of vaccines seems evident within the present surge. Whereas hospitalizations climbed virtually 20% within the week that ended Monday, hitting a each day common of 9,442, that determine is 43% under the height almost a yr in the past.
Equally, with a median of 1,085 deaths a day during the last week, COVID-19 is killing about half as many individuals because it did throughout final winter’s surge.
Nonetheless, it’s unclear how the surge in instances will play out, as a result of it sometimes takes two to 4 weeks for an an infection to ship an individual to the hospital. Those that die of COVID-19 usually spend weeks within the hospital earlier than succumbing.
And even after hospitalization and dying charges are identified, researchers must sift via medical information and genetic information to match the results of Omicron and Delta, and the way vaccination and variant kind interacted. That work might take weeks or months.
Within the meantime, researchers in locations which were host to the Omicron variant for a bit longer than the USA have supplied a potential glimpse of the long run right here.
An evaluation by South African scientists suggests that folks considered contaminated with Omicron have been about 70% much less more likely to change into severely sick and 80% much less more likely to be hospitalized than those that have been contaminated with Delta.
A research carried out in England discovered that after accounting for the results of vaccination, Omicron-infected folks have been about 45% much less probably than folks contaminated with Delta to wind up within the hospital.
Omicron’s quest for dominance
It’s unclear whether or not the present tendencies are being pushed extra by the Omicron variant or by the Delta variant.
On Dec. 22, a projection launched by the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention advised that Omicron had rocketed to dominance in the USA, leaping from 3% of all instances to 73% over two weeks in early December.
Information stories handled Omicron’s sudden takeover as a fait accompli slightly than the projection it was. The stories additionally appeared to counsel that the brand new variant was liable for different stunning developments: New instances had topped these seen in final September’s wave, and intensive care models nationally had reached about three-quarters capability.
The projection, it turned out, was mistaken.
Per week later, the CDC would downgrade Omicron’s presence on Dec. 18 to an estimated 22.5% of recent U.S. instances, predicting that by Christmas Day that determine would hit 59%. That projection might change too.
Although nonetheless rather more transmissible than Delta, Omicron doesn’t appear to have carried out the gorgeous coup that had been introduced. What occurred?
The CDC oversees the sequencing of about 80,000 specimens per week — about 14% of recent instances, eventually depend — but it surely takes weeks to compile the outcomes. That’s too sluggish for public well being authorities guiding present coverage.
So the company’s modelers should take three-week-old information and make judgments about how that blend of variants is more likely to have modified. That train, often called “Nowcasting,” makes use of a smattering of newer genetic sequencing outcomes equipped by the states to replace a variant’s nationwide development fee. However selecting the mistaken pattern — a simple mistake in a extremely fluid state of affairs — can result in important errors.
The large takeaway: the Delta variant remains to be very a lot amongst us.
Emory College epidemiologist Jodie Visitor mentioned that in a surge of recent instances, Delta is more likely to do what it has performed since its arrival final March: ship many who stay unvaccinated to the hospital, or worse.
“I routinely hear that Omicron is delicate, not going to be an enormous deal, and hopefully that’s true,” Visitor mentioned. “However clearly Delta remains to be right here, and everybody took Delta fairly significantly. It is sensible from the hospitalizations we’re seeing that there’s extra Delta occurring than we had estimated.”
Testing
The Biden administration introduced this month that it could make at-home testing available. The goal is to make it simpler for folks to determine in the event that they’re contaminated and act to stop the unfold of the virus.
However it is usually probably so as to add one other layer of uncertainty to our understanding of the pandemic, as a result of it signifies that fewer folks will obtain PCR exams.
Gathered from each nook of the USA and zealously tracked by the CDC, optimistic PCR exams have been the premise for detecting pandemic scorching spots, measuring vaccine safety, determining the transmissibility of recent variants and alerting authorities to coming waves of hospitalizations and deaths. Researchers additionally observe what occurs after a optimistic PCR check — asymptomatic sickness, hospitalization, dying, lengthy COVID — to realize insights into particular person and group vulnerabilities.
All of that may change into much less dependable as extra People use at-home antigen exams, whose outcomes is not going to be centrally compiled. Some individuals who get a optimistic studying on an antigen check could search to substantiate it with a PCR check. However most will in all probability not, which means extra infections received’t make it into the official case depend.
“Testing has already began to shift, and it’s probably already impacted the accuracy of our case counts,” Ranney mentioned.
On the similar time, the more and more DIY nature of diagnosing an an infection “is partly the pure evolution of dealing with this virus,” she mentioned.
If the Omicron variant proves to be milder, and vaccines proceed to guard towards extreme sickness, optimistic antigen exams will largely be adopted by delicate sickness. At that time, the CDC might focus extra on counting extreme diseases and deaths.
“We’re going to should get extra refined about how we take into consideration this virus,” Ranney mentioned.
Science
FDA sets limits for lead in many baby foods as California disclosure law takes effect
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration this week set maximum levels for lead in baby foods such as jarred fruits and vegetables, yogurts and dry cereal, part of an effort to cut young kids’ exposure to the toxic metal that causes developmental and neurological problems.
The agency issued final guidance that it estimated could reduce lead exposure from processed baby foods by about 20% to 30%. The limits are voluntary, not mandatory, for food manufacturers, but they allow the FDA to take enforcement action if foods exceed the levels.
It’s part of the FDA’s ongoing effort to “reduce dietary exposure to contaminants, including lead, in foods to as low as possible over time, while maintaining access to nutritious foods,” the agency said in a statement.
Consumer advocates, who have long sought limits on lead in children’s foods, welcomed the guidance first proposed two years ago, but said it didn’t go far enough.
“FDA’s actions today are a step forward and will help protect children,” said Thomas Galligan, a scientist with the Center for Science in the Public Interest. “However, the agency took too long to act and ignored important public input that could have strengthened these standards.”
The new limits on lead for children younger than 2 don’t cover grain-based snacks such as puffs and teething biscuits, which some research has shown contain higher levels of lead. And they don’t limit other metals such as cadmium that have been detected in baby foods.
The FDA’s announcement comes just one week after a new California law took effect that requires baby food makers selling products in California to provide a QR code on their packaging to take consumers to monthly test results for the presence in their product of four heavy metals: lead, mercury, arsenic and cadmium.
The change, required under a law passed by the California Legislature in 2023, will affect consumers nationwide. Because companies are unlikely to create separate packaging for the California market, QR codes are likely to appear on products sold across the country, and consumers everywhere will be able to view the heavy metal concentrations.
Although companies are required to start printing new packaging and publishing test results of products manufactured beginning in January, it may take time for the products to hit grocery shelves.
The law was inspired by a 2021 congressional investigation that found dangerously high levels of heavy metals in packaged foods marketed for babies and toddlers. Baby foods and their ingredients had up to 91 times the arsenic level, up to 177 times the lead level, up to 69 times the cadmium level, and up to five times the mercury level that the U.S. allows to be present in bottled or drinking water, the investigation found.
There’s no safe level of lead exposure for children, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The metal causes “well-documented health effects,” including brain and nervous system damage and slowed growth and development. However, lead occurs naturally in some foods and comes from pollutants in air, water and soil, which can make it impossible to eliminate entirely.
The FDA guidance sets a lead limit of 10 parts per billion for fruits, most vegetables, grain and meat mixtures, yogurts, custards and puddings and single-ingredient meats. It sets a limit of 20 parts per billion for single-ingredient root vegetables and for dry infant cereals. The guidance covers packaged processed foods sold in jars, pouches, tubs or boxes.
Jaclyn Bowen, executive director of the Clean Label Project, an organization that certifies baby foods as having low levels of toxic substances, said consumers can use the new FDA guidance in tandem with the new California law: The FDA, she said, has provided parents a “hard and fast number” to consider a benchmark when looking at the new monthly test results.
But Brian Ronholm, director of food policy for Consumer Reports, called the FDA limits “virtually meaningless because they’re based more on industry feasibility and not on what would best protect public health.” A product with a lead level of 10 parts per billion is “still too high for baby food. What we’ve heard from a lot of these manufacturers is they are testing well below that number.”
The new FDA guidance comes more than a year after lead-tainted pouches of apple cinnamon puree sickened more than 560 children in the U.S. between October 2023 and April 2024, according to the CDC.
The levels of lead detected in those products were more than 2,000 times higher than the FDA’s maximum. Officials stressed that the agency doesn’t need guidance to take action on foods that violate the law.
Aleccia writes for the Associated Press. Gold reports for The Times’ early childhood education initiative, focusing on the learning and development of California children from birth to age 5. For more information about the initiative and its philanthropic funders, go to latimes.com/earlyed.
Science
NASA punts Mars Sample Return decision to the next administration
Anyone hoping for a clear path forward this year for NASA’s imperiled Mars Sample Return mission will have to wait a little longer.
The agency has settled on two potential strategies for the first effort to bring rock and soil from another planet back to Earth for study, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said Tuesday: It can either leverage existing technology into a simpler, cheaper craft or turn to a commercial partner for a new design.
But the final decision on the mission’s structure — or whether it should proceed at all — “is going to be a function of the new administration,” Nelson said. President-elect Donald Trump will take office Jan. 20.
“I don’t think we want the only [Mars] sample return coming back on a Chinese spacecraft,” Nelson said, referencing a rival mission that Beijing has in the works. “I think that the [Trump] administration will certainly conclude that they want to proceed. So what we wanted to do was to give them the best possible options so that they can go from there.”
The call also contained words of encouragement for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, which leads the embattled mission’s engineering efforts.
“To put it really bluntly, JPL is our Mars center in NASA science,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator of the Science Mission Directorate. “They are the people who landed us on Mars, together with our industry partners. So they will be moving forward, regardless of which path, with a key role in the Mars Sample Return.”
In April, after an independent review found “near zero probability” of Mars Sample Return making its proposed 2028 launch date, NASA put out a request for alternative proposals to all of its centers and the private sector. JPL was forced to compete for what had been its own project.
The independent review board determined that the original design would probably cost up to $11 billion and not return samples to Earth until at least 2040.
“That was just simply unacceptable,” said Nelson, who paused the mission in late 2023 to review its chances of success.
Ensuing cuts to the mission’s budget forced a series of layoffs at JPL, which let go of 855 employees and 100 on-site contractors in 2024.
The NASA-led option that Nelson suggested Tuesday includes several elements from the JPL proposal, according to a person who reviewed the documents. This leaner, simpler alternative will cost between $6.6 billion and $7.7 billion, and will return the samples by 2039, he said. A commercial alternative would probably cost $5.8 billion to $7.1 billion.
Nelson, a former Democratic U.S. senator from Florida, will step down as head of the space agency when Trump takes office. Trump has nominated as his successor Jared Isaacman, a tech billionaire who performed the first private space walk, who must be confirmed by the Senate.
NASA has not had any conversations with Trump’s transition team about Mars Sample Return, Nelson said. How the new administration will prioritize the project is not yet clear.
“It’s very uncertain how the new administration will go forward,” said Casey Dreier, chief of space policy for the Planetary Society, a Pasadena nonprofit that promotes space research. “Cancellation is obviously still on the table. … It’s hard to game this out.”
Planetary scientists have identified Mars Sample Return as their field’s highest priority in the last three decadal surveys, reports that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine prepare every 10 years in order to advise NASA.
Successfully completing the mission is “key for the nation’s leadership in space science,” said Bethany L. Ehlmann, a planetary scientist at Caltech in Pasadena. “I hope the incoming administrator moves forward decisively to select a plan and execute. There are extraordinary engineers at JPL and NASA industry partners eager and able to get to work to make it happen.”
Science
Panama Canal’s Expansion Opened Routes for Fish to Relocate
Night fell as the two scientists got to work, unfurling long nets off the end of their boat. The jungle struck up its evening symphony: the sweet chittering of insects, the distant bellowing of monkeys, the occasional screech of a kite. Crocodiles lounged in the shallows, their eyes glinting when headlamps were shined their way.
Across the water, cargo ships made dark shapes as they slid between the seas.
The Panama Canal has for more than a century connected far-flung peoples and economies, making it an essential artery for global trade — and, in recent weeks, a target of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s expansionist designs.
But of late the canal has been linking something else, too: the immense ecosystems of the Atlantic and the Pacific.
The two oceans have been separated for some three million years, ever since the isthmus of Panama rose out of the water and split them. The canal cut a path through the continent, yet for decades only a handful of marine fish species managed to migrate through the waterway and the freshwater reservoir, Lake Gatún, that feeds its locks.
Then, in 2016, Panama expanded the canal to allow supersize ships, and all that started to change.
In less than a decade, fish from both oceans — snooks, jacks, snappers and more — have almost entirely displaced the freshwater species that were in the canal system before, scientists with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama have found. Fishermen around Lake Gatún who rely on those species, chiefly peacock bass and tilapia, say their catches are growing scarce.
Researchers now worry that more fish could start making their way through from one ocean to the other. And no potential invader causes more concern than the venomous, candy-striped lionfish. They are known to inhabit Panama’s Caribbean coast, but not the eastern Pacific. If they made it there through the canal, they could ravage the defenseless local fish, just as they’ve done in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.
Already, marine species are more than occasional visitors in Lake Gatún, said Phillip Sanchez, a fisheries ecologist with the Smithsonian. They’re “becoming the dominant community,” he said. They’re “pushing everything else out.”
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