Science
Scientists struggle to understand the competition between Omicron and Delta
Because the pandemic’s third yr dawns, People are feeling fatigued and confused. And it’s all Omicron’s fault.
Even scientists are deeply unsure about how rapidly and even whether or not the brand new variant will eclipse Delta, in addition to who’s more likely to fall sick with which variant and the way sick these folks will change into.
“It does really feel like Omicron has modified all the things we thought we knew” concerning the virus, mentioned Dr. Megan Ranney, affiliate dean of Brown College’s College of Public Well being. “This appears like an odd turning level, probably, within the pandemic.”
Clues concerning the pandemic’s subsequent part have begun to emerge, however they’ve been conflicting and vulnerable to error. Torrents of recent information and statistics tumble out each day, however what they imply isn’t all the time clear. Some appear fairly reassuring, others deeply alarming.
In the meantime, selections must be made: Go to grandma in her nursing house? Attend that New 12 months’s gathering? Wait hours in line for a COVID check since you awakened with a scratchy throat? Ship your child again to varsity when she may be despatched house in two weeks? Put on a masks … in all places?
Right here’s what we find out about Omicron and the state of the pandemic — and what we don’t.
New infections
The US has notched a brand new excessive in confirmed infections, with a median of 277,241 new instances a day for the final full week of 2021.
The earlier document was 259,759, set early final January. Per week later, each day COVID-19 deaths reached their zenith of 4,048, and for the following month that determine hardly ever fell under 2,000.
As worrisome as that historical past sounds, it’s unlikely to repeat itself, as a result of there are stark variations between then and now. Most significantly, the variety of People who’re totally vaccinated has gone from about 350,000 to greater than 204 million, with 68 million of these having additionally obtained a booster shot.
Hospitalizations
Amongst folks over 65, the vaccinated are six instances much less probably than the unvaccinated to be hospitalized for COVID-19. The distinction is twice that for folks 18 to 49.
The advantage of vaccines seems evident within the present surge. Whereas hospitalizations climbed virtually 20% within the week that ended Monday, hitting a each day common of 9,442, that determine is 43% under the height almost a yr in the past.
Equally, with a median of 1,085 deaths a day during the last week, COVID-19 is killing about half as many individuals because it did throughout final winter’s surge.
Nonetheless, it’s unclear how the surge in instances will play out, as a result of it sometimes takes two to 4 weeks for an an infection to ship an individual to the hospital. Those that die of COVID-19 usually spend weeks within the hospital earlier than succumbing.
And even after hospitalization and dying charges are identified, researchers must sift via medical information and genetic information to match the results of Omicron and Delta, and the way vaccination and variant kind interacted. That work might take weeks or months.
Within the meantime, researchers in locations which were host to the Omicron variant for a bit longer than the USA have supplied a potential glimpse of the long run right here.
An evaluation by South African scientists suggests that folks considered contaminated with Omicron have been about 70% much less more likely to change into severely sick and 80% much less more likely to be hospitalized than those that have been contaminated with Delta.
A research carried out in England discovered that after accounting for the results of vaccination, Omicron-infected folks have been about 45% much less probably than folks contaminated with Delta to wind up within the hospital.
Omicron’s quest for dominance
It’s unclear whether or not the present tendencies are being pushed extra by the Omicron variant or by the Delta variant.
On Dec. 22, a projection launched by the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention advised that Omicron had rocketed to dominance in the USA, leaping from 3% of all instances to 73% over two weeks in early December.
Information stories handled Omicron’s sudden takeover as a fait accompli slightly than the projection it was. The stories additionally appeared to counsel that the brand new variant was liable for different stunning developments: New instances had topped these seen in final September’s wave, and intensive care models nationally had reached about three-quarters capability.
The projection, it turned out, was mistaken.
Per week later, the CDC would downgrade Omicron’s presence on Dec. 18 to an estimated 22.5% of recent U.S. instances, predicting that by Christmas Day that determine would hit 59%. That projection might change too.
Although nonetheless rather more transmissible than Delta, Omicron doesn’t appear to have carried out the gorgeous coup that had been introduced. What occurred?
The CDC oversees the sequencing of about 80,000 specimens per week — about 14% of recent instances, eventually depend — but it surely takes weeks to compile the outcomes. That’s too sluggish for public well being authorities guiding present coverage.
So the company’s modelers should take three-week-old information and make judgments about how that blend of variants is more likely to have modified. That train, often called “Nowcasting,” makes use of a smattering of newer genetic sequencing outcomes equipped by the states to replace a variant’s nationwide development fee. However selecting the mistaken pattern — a simple mistake in a extremely fluid state of affairs — can result in important errors.
The large takeaway: the Delta variant remains to be very a lot amongst us.
Emory College epidemiologist Jodie Visitor mentioned that in a surge of recent instances, Delta is more likely to do what it has performed since its arrival final March: ship many who stay unvaccinated to the hospital, or worse.
“I routinely hear that Omicron is delicate, not going to be an enormous deal, and hopefully that’s true,” Visitor mentioned. “However clearly Delta remains to be right here, and everybody took Delta fairly significantly. It is sensible from the hospitalizations we’re seeing that there’s extra Delta occurring than we had estimated.”
Testing
The Biden administration introduced this month that it could make at-home testing available. The goal is to make it simpler for folks to determine in the event that they’re contaminated and act to stop the unfold of the virus.
However it is usually probably so as to add one other layer of uncertainty to our understanding of the pandemic, as a result of it signifies that fewer folks will obtain PCR exams.
Gathered from each nook of the USA and zealously tracked by the CDC, optimistic PCR exams have been the premise for detecting pandemic scorching spots, measuring vaccine safety, determining the transmissibility of recent variants and alerting authorities to coming waves of hospitalizations and deaths. Researchers additionally observe what occurs after a optimistic PCR check — asymptomatic sickness, hospitalization, dying, lengthy COVID — to realize insights into particular person and group vulnerabilities.
All of that may change into much less dependable as extra People use at-home antigen exams, whose outcomes is not going to be centrally compiled. Some individuals who get a optimistic studying on an antigen check could search to substantiate it with a PCR check. However most will in all probability not, which means extra infections received’t make it into the official case depend.
“Testing has already began to shift, and it’s probably already impacted the accuracy of our case counts,” Ranney mentioned.
On the similar time, the more and more DIY nature of diagnosing an an infection “is partly the pure evolution of dealing with this virus,” she mentioned.
If the Omicron variant proves to be milder, and vaccines proceed to guard towards extreme sickness, optimistic antigen exams will largely be adopted by delicate sickness. At that time, the CDC might focus extra on counting extreme diseases and deaths.
“We’re going to should get extra refined about how we take into consideration this virus,” Ranney mentioned.
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
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