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Scientists struggle to understand the competition between Omicron and Delta

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Because the pandemic’s third yr dawns, People are feeling fatigued and confused. And it’s all Omicron’s fault.

Even scientists are deeply unsure about how rapidly and even whether or not the brand new variant will eclipse Delta, in addition to who’s more likely to fall sick with which variant and the way sick these folks will change into.

“It does really feel like Omicron has modified all the things we thought we knew” concerning the virus, mentioned Dr. Megan Ranney, affiliate dean of Brown College’s College of Public Well being. “This appears like an odd turning level, probably, within the pandemic.”

Clues concerning the pandemic’s subsequent part have begun to emerge, however they’ve been conflicting and vulnerable to error. Torrents of recent information and statistics tumble out each day, however what they imply isn’t all the time clear. Some appear fairly reassuring, others deeply alarming.

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In the meantime, selections must be made: Go to grandma in her nursing house? Attend that New 12 months’s gathering? Wait hours in line for a COVID check since you awakened with a scratchy throat? Ship your child again to varsity when she may be despatched house in two weeks? Put on a masks … in all places?

Right here’s what we find out about Omicron and the state of the pandemic — and what we don’t.

New infections

The US has notched a brand new excessive in confirmed infections, with a median of 277,241 new instances a day for the final full week of 2021.

The earlier document was 259,759, set early final January. Per week later, each day COVID-19 deaths reached their zenith of 4,048, and for the following month that determine hardly ever fell under 2,000.

As worrisome as that historical past sounds, it’s unlikely to repeat itself, as a result of there are stark variations between then and now. Most significantly, the variety of People who’re totally vaccinated has gone from about 350,000 to greater than 204 million, with 68 million of these having additionally obtained a booster shot.

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Hospitalizations

Amongst folks over 65, the vaccinated are six instances much less probably than the unvaccinated to be hospitalized for COVID-19. The distinction is twice that for folks 18 to 49.

The advantage of vaccines seems evident within the present surge. Whereas hospitalizations climbed virtually 20% within the week that ended Monday, hitting a each day common of 9,442, that determine is 43% under the height almost a yr in the past.

Equally, with a median of 1,085 deaths a day during the last week, COVID-19 is killing about half as many individuals because it did throughout final winter’s surge.

Nonetheless, it’s unclear how the surge in instances will play out, as a result of it sometimes takes two to 4 weeks for an an infection to ship an individual to the hospital. Those that die of COVID-19 usually spend weeks within the hospital earlier than succumbing.

And even after hospitalization and dying charges are identified, researchers must sift via medical information and genetic information to match the results of Omicron and Delta, and the way vaccination and variant kind interacted. That work might take weeks or months.

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Within the meantime, researchers in locations which were host to the Omicron variant for a bit longer than the USA have supplied a potential glimpse of the long run right here.

An evaluation by South African scientists suggests that folks considered contaminated with Omicron have been about 70% much less more likely to change into severely sick and 80% much less more likely to be hospitalized than those that have been contaminated with Delta.

A research carried out in England discovered that after accounting for the results of vaccination, Omicron-infected folks have been about 45% much less probably than folks contaminated with Delta to wind up within the hospital.

Omicron’s quest for dominance

It’s unclear whether or not the present tendencies are being pushed extra by the Omicron variant or by the Delta variant.

On Dec. 22, a projection launched by the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention advised that Omicron had rocketed to dominance in the USA, leaping from 3% of all instances to 73% over two weeks in early December.

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Information stories handled Omicron’s sudden takeover as a fait accompli slightly than the projection it was. The stories additionally appeared to counsel that the brand new variant was liable for different stunning developments: New instances had topped these seen in final September’s wave, and intensive care models nationally had reached about three-quarters capability.

The projection, it turned out, was mistaken.

Per week later, the CDC would downgrade Omicron’s presence on Dec. 18 to an estimated 22.5% of recent U.S. instances, predicting that by Christmas Day that determine would hit 59%. That projection might change too.

Although nonetheless rather more transmissible than Delta, Omicron doesn’t appear to have carried out the gorgeous coup that had been introduced. What occurred?

The CDC oversees the sequencing of about 80,000 specimens per week — about 14% of recent instances, eventually depend — but it surely takes weeks to compile the outcomes. That’s too sluggish for public well being authorities guiding present coverage.

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So the company’s modelers should take three-week-old information and make judgments about how that blend of variants is more likely to have modified. That train, often called “Nowcasting,” makes use of a smattering of newer genetic sequencing outcomes equipped by the states to replace a variant’s nationwide development fee. However selecting the mistaken pattern — a simple mistake in a extremely fluid state of affairs — can result in important errors.

The large takeaway: the Delta variant remains to be very a lot amongst us.

Emory College epidemiologist Jodie Visitor mentioned that in a surge of recent instances, Delta is more likely to do what it has performed since its arrival final March: ship many who stay unvaccinated to the hospital, or worse.

“I routinely hear that Omicron is delicate, not going to be an enormous deal, and hopefully that’s true,” Visitor mentioned. “However clearly Delta remains to be right here, and everybody took Delta fairly significantly. It is sensible from the hospitalizations we’re seeing that there’s extra Delta occurring than we had estimated.”

Testing

The Biden administration introduced this month that it could make at-home testing available. The goal is to make it simpler for folks to determine in the event that they’re contaminated and act to stop the unfold of the virus.

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However it is usually probably so as to add one other layer of uncertainty to our understanding of the pandemic, as a result of it signifies that fewer folks will obtain PCR exams.

Gathered from each nook of the USA and zealously tracked by the CDC, optimistic PCR exams have been the premise for detecting pandemic scorching spots, measuring vaccine safety, determining the transmissibility of recent variants and alerting authorities to coming waves of hospitalizations and deaths. Researchers additionally observe what occurs after a optimistic PCR check — asymptomatic sickness, hospitalization, dying, lengthy COVID — to realize insights into particular person and group vulnerabilities.

All of that may change into much less dependable as extra People use at-home antigen exams, whose outcomes is not going to be centrally compiled. Some individuals who get a optimistic studying on an antigen check could search to substantiate it with a PCR check. However most will in all probability not, which means extra infections received’t make it into the official case depend.

“Testing has already began to shift, and it’s probably already impacted the accuracy of our case counts,” Ranney mentioned.

On the similar time, the more and more DIY nature of diagnosing an an infection “is partly the pure evolution of dealing with this virus,” she mentioned.

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If the Omicron variant proves to be milder, and vaccines proceed to guard towards extreme sickness, optimistic antigen exams will largely be adopted by delicate sickness. At that time, the CDC might focus extra on counting extreme diseases and deaths.

“We’re going to should get extra refined about how we take into consideration this virus,” Ranney mentioned.

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AI and memory deletion: Inside the medical quest to cure grief

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AI and memory deletion: Inside the medical quest to cure grief

When Cody Delistraty lost his mother in 2014, he was surprised by the various ways that he, his brother and his father dealt with their grief. The journalist and speechwriter had expected his family’s experiences to be aligned, that there would be a, “homogeneity to grieving.” The differences led Delistraty to wonder whether loss was more complicated than advertised.

In America, grief is often framed as a journey from Point A to Point B, a linear path efficiently chugging through stages like denial and anger, ultimately heading toward acceptance. But anyone who has experienced a loss firsthand understands that it isn’t so simple. Grief can be isolating, confusing and unyielding.

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Shelf Help is a new wellness column where we interview researchers, thinkers and writers about their latest books — all with the aim of learning how to live a more complete life.

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In 2022, a new addition to the DSM-5 (“Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders”) caught Delistraty’s eye: prolonged grief disorder. It’s a rare condition in which grief becomes so severe that it interferes with daily life. The classification opens the door to medical solutions: pharmaceuticals are in early testing stages, and a slew of new digital, psychedelic and other treatments are emerging.

Delistraty’s new book, “The Grief Cure: Looking for the End of Loss,” (Harper) follows his inquisitive sampling of available and future therapies, all while wondering whether grief is a problem that needs to be solved.

Your understanding of grief initially centered on a concept known as the five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. How did that shift?

Portrait of Cody Delistraty standing in front of a bookcase

Cody Delistraty (Grace Ann Leadbeater)

When Elisabeth Kübler-Ross came up with the five stages, she was talking to patients who were coming to terms with their own deaths, not with their own grief, which is similar but also very different. There was a study that tracked grievers from various demographics and found that most people actually experience a progression, but my issue with the typical interpretation of the five stages is that it’s presented as the right way to grieve, that there’s a method you can master and that the end game is acceptance.

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America has a culture of individuality and mastery — we want to achieve, we want to overcome, we want to bootstrap our way to success. But in grief, we only set ourselves back trying to do this. After a loss is the time to pause and reflect, and even if you do go through these stages to some degree, trying to rush through them or extract value in order to get to acceptance and move on is a fundamentally wrong way of looking at it.

“America has a culture of individuality and mastery — we want to achieve, we want to overcome, we want to bootstrap our way to success. But in grief, we only set ourselves back trying to do this.”

— Cody Delistraty, author of “The Grief Cure.”

Your book confronts the isolation of grieving and how it’s so often considered unseemly or inappropriate when done publicly. Grief is culturally framed as an individual journey, and yet it’s a universal fact of life. What do you think accounts for this disconnect?

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This paradigm shift from public to private grieving is a relatively recent phenomenon. Americans, especially, are weary of talking or asking about loss. This is a symptom of “happiness culture,” where grief is considered a burden and you don’t want to seem unhappy or bring others down. The disintegration of local communities exacerbates this. And then this false idea that closure marks a victory over grief. Keeping grief private implies that you did your job. There’s morally valuable willpower. You did it. You got over it.

I think self-care has been the problematic marketing breakthrough of the 21st century, in which the more challenging aspects of being a human, like disappointment, sadness and grief, get pushed out of the frame. They’re not within our consumption narrative, and they’re not within the way we want to present to others.

What surprised me while researching is that it seems like people are actually bubbling with the desire to talk about these things. When I was researching for the book, I got sick of holing up in hotels, so I went to a bar and ended up talking with someone who told me about her recent divorce, which she called the greatest loss of her life. She hadn’t really talked to anybody about it, and it was so nice to connect over loss. When people are open, it can snowball into greater openness.

Our society can place varying value on different types of loss, resulting in some to fall through the cracks, like that woman with her divorce. But grief exists on a spectrum. In the book, you discuss ambiguous loss. Can you tell me more?

Book jacket for "The Grief Cure" by Cody Delistraty

(Courtesy of Harper Collins)

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The term ambiguous loss was coined by Pauline Boss at the University of Minnesota, who worked with the families of soldiers who went missing in Vietnam. Boss defined it as “a relational disorder caused by the lack of facts surrounding the loss of a loved one,” but today, it encompasses a wide variety of loss.

Climate grief is a big and very modern one. There was a European study that found a third of respondents are extremely worried about climate change. That’s a huge instance of ambiguous grief because there’s disappearance of species and landscapes, there’s an increase in climate refugees, but you can’t really point to a body in a casket and say this is what I’m grieving.

Relationships are another big example. In the book, I went to breakup boot camp to explore losing a loved one outside of death. Friend breakups can be devastating. I really push against the idea of hierarchies and grief. There isn’t a fundamental ranking within grief, and it is subjective to the relationship you had to that person or thing.

Your experiences brought you to the cutting edge of grief research. What do you make of the future of grief treatments?

When I was writing the AI [artificial intelligence] chapter of re-creating technologically deceased loved ones, it was super cutting-edge and wild. Then, of course, it all hit the news cycle pretty intensely with Chat-GPT. Optogenetics for memory deletion could be something we’re faced with in another decade or two. There will be medical technologies where we can take a lot of the pain and burden out of loss. My book questions whether that’s really for the best. We should be thinking about this now before the time comes.

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TAKEAWAYS

from “The Grief Cure”

Psilocybin is a huge scientific breakthrough for grief. I talked to one of the most renowned psilocybin researchers, Robin Carhart-Harris, who told me about this guy, Kirk Rutter, whose mother had died, he’d been in this terrible car accident and then he went through a romantic breakup all in the span of about a year. Carhart-Harris’ team gave him just two pills of synthesized psilocybin, donned him with an eye mask and calm music, and he had this incredible perspective shift. He cycled through memories of his mom and realized he didn’t have to maintain the most painful parts, but he could still hold onto her and respect her memory. That treatment made him look at grief differently.

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What is your best advice for somebody really stuck in their grief?

There’s no right way of doing it, but don’t rush it. As awful as this time is, there’s so much to be gleaned from really looking inward, reflecting on yourself and your feelings, and thinking about the person you’ve lost. I rushed after my mom died, trying to push past the pain, and here I am, a decade later, writing a book about it. These things really do take time.

I also recommend telling your people what you need from them. The vast majority of people want to talk about these things, they want to be helpful, but especially in the U.S., we are very bad at knowing what that looks like. To the degree that you can, communicate your needs. I think you’d be surprised by the degree to which people will be there for you.

Should someone in grief be aiming for closure?

I think closure is a mythical idea. Nancy Berns, a professor at Drake University, has done a lot of great work on closure and how it’s a social construct. We too often skip over the grappling-with and reflecting-on of grief in order to get to this mythical place of closure when really the truest value is being able to hold that loss in one part of your life while holding a future-looking part in another.

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We see this push for closure reified across American culture. One of the biggest shocks for me was bereavement leave, where the median is only five days according to a 2024 study, and this only applies to a close family death. There’s no U.S. federal law requiring leave. This bolsters the idea that closure is part and parcel of productivity, of getting back to normal, of getting back to work.

Our rituals around grief are one-off. We go to a funeral, and that’s it. You get support for an hour, and then it’s over. We’d do well to really reflect on more personal, creative rituals that have more intimate meaning and can be continued over a longer period. This shift would help people with the understanding of time lines around grief. It all takes so much longer than we think. You miss so much when you rush through to tick the box of closure, and frankly, when you do so, you’re really not grieving at all.

a figure sit in the threshold of a door opening to a void

(Maggie Chiang / For The Times)

Endicott is a writer and multi-disciplinary artist based in Denver. Her work has appeared in a number of publications including the New York Times, Scientific American, the Guardian, Elle, Electric Lit and Bomb Magazine. You can find her on Instagram @weirdbirds.

Shelf Help is a new wellness column where we interview researchers, thinkers and writers about their latest books — all with the aim of learning how to live a more complete life. Want to pitch us? Email alyssa.bereznak@latimes.com.

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L.A. County plans to put $5 million toward wiping out medical debt

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L.A. County plans to put $5 million toward wiping out medical debt

Los Angeles County is moving forward with a pilot program to relieve medical debt for struggling residents, setting aside $5 million for a planned agreement with a national nonprofit that buys and erases such debts.

County supervisors voted Tuesday to allocate money for a county agreement with Undue Medical Debt to carry out the new program. The effort is expected to launch later this year, focusing on debt stemming from hospital care and targeting L.A. County’s “lowest income residents.”

“No one should be driven into poverty because they got sick,” Supervisor Janice Hahn, who put forward the proposal with Supervisor Holly Mitchell, said in a statement.

“But medical debt remains a huge problem in this country, and it can be devastating for families and their financial well-being. Luckily for us, we have an opportunity to make a difference.”

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Hospitals stuck with unpaid bills can bundle and sell the debt at a discount to collection agencies that try to recoup the owed money for profit. Undue Medical Debt instead buys the discounted debt and forgives it. The nonprofit said it can erase an average of $100 in debt for every dollar that is donated.

“Five million dollars can really go a long way,” said its vice president of communications and marketing Daniel Lempert. County officials estimated that amount could eliminate $500 million of debt for 150,000 residents.

Across the country, Undue Medical Debt has partnered with local governments such as Cook County, Ill. and Toledo, Ohio. to fund such efforts. Lempert said that under such agreements, the nonprofit typically reaches out to local hospitals and other health care providers to identify and purchase medical debt affecting financially strapped patients, then gets reimbursed by the local government for the cost of debts affecting their residents.

Under its guidelines for financial hardship, Undue Medical Debt works to relieve debt for people from households making no more than four times the federal poverty level — a calculation equating to $124,800 this year for a family of four — or whose medical debt amounts to 5% or more of their income.

L.A. County is still working out who will be eligible under its pilot program, but its broad goal is to reach “our lowest-income residents and the working poor who have catastrophic amounts of medical debt,” said Dr. Naman Shah, director of the division of medical and dental affairs at L.A. County Public Health.

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The L.A. County pilot program will focus specifically on medical debts for hospital care, Shah said. Local residents cannot apply directly for their medical debt to be wiped out, but will be informed if Undue Medical Debt has eliminated some or all of their unpaid debt.

“You’ll get a letter out of the blue saying, ‘X, Y or Z debts have been relieved. You no longer owe them. Keep this as a receipt,’” Lempert said.

In Los Angeles County, public health officials have estimated that medical debt totaled more than $2.9 billion in 2022, burdening 1 in 10 adults in the county — a higher percentage than suffered from asthma, according to the public health department. More than half of those who said they were burdened by medical debt had taken on credit card debt to pay medical bills, its analysis found.

The problem has persisted even as more L.A. County residents gained insurance coverage, underscoring the need for a targeted approach, the public health department said.

County officials estimated earlier this year that wiping out nearly $3 billion in medical debt for L.A. County residents through an intermediary would cost $24 million. Other municipalities have turned to funding from the American Rescue Plan Act for such debt relief, but L.A. County had “fully allocated” that money as of January, according to a staff report.

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The public health department said it planned to instead use $5 million in one-time county funding for the pilot program, which it said would roll out in stages, starting with “the most vulnerable residents.” Shah said his hope was to raise enough additional money to not have to set priorities about which struggling residents to help.

A study released earlier this year raised questions about the effectiveness of buying up medical debt: A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper that examined medical debt relief for more than 83,000 people from 2018 to 2020 concluded it had no effect, on average, on financial distress or mental health. The research was done in partnership with Undue Medical Debt, then known as RIP Medical Debt.

Despite the “disappointing results,” the researchers wrote, “there is still potential that medical debt relief targeted further upstream or in different populations could yield meaningful benefits.” Stanford University professor of economics Neale Mahoney said the cheapest debts to buy often date back five years or more.

By that point, “a lot of these folks had a lot of other issues, and relieving one of their issues without helping … all of the other financial issues they had wasn’t enough to move the needle,” he said. One solution is to “move more upstream,” and provide debt relief earlier, “before people are too scarred by the debt collection process.”

Mahoney praised the response of the nonprofit, saying it was “taking the study to heart.” Undue Medical Debt president Allison Sesso said in April that it had already made changes since the period covered by the study, including buying medical debt directly from hospitals before it goes to debt buyers or collection agencies.

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Sesso also said her group was “collaborating with local governments across the country to concentrate debt erasure to a specific locality to deepen our impact.”

Focusing such efforts in a targeted area ramps up the chances it may be able to wipe out multiple debts for an individual patient, Lempert said.

Shah added that the study did not show what would happen if debt relief happened alongside other prevention efforts. In L.A. County, “there is a larger agenda on medical debt — of which this is just one part.”

Under a broader plan to combat medical debt in L.A. County, the public health department also wants to gather data on how hospitals collect debt and assist strapped patients, create an online portal to apply for financial help, and expand legal aid services, among other proposed steps.

Public health department director Barbara Ferrer told county supervisors Tuesday that their goal is to stop medical debt “at the source,” before it starts piling up for L.A. County residents.

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“We don’t want to be coming back to you in five years trying to pay off medical debt again,” Ferrer said.

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L.A.'s newest dinosaur has its forever name

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L.A.'s newest dinosaur has its forever name

The people have spoken, and L.A.’s newest Jurassic-era resident has its forever name.

Dinosaur fans who responded to the museum’s request for input overwhelmingly chose to call the Natural History Museum’s new 70-foot-long sauropod “Gnatalie.”

More than 36% of roughly 8,100 participants in a public poll chose that name, which is pronounced “Natalie,” from among five options offered by the museum.

A rendering of the new dinosaur display at the Natural History Museum. Dinosaur fans who responded to a museum poll have decided to call the 70-foot-long sauropod “Gnatalie.”

(Frederick Fisher and Partners, Studio MLA, and Studio Joseph / NHMLAC)

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The punny moniker is a reference to the relentless swarm of gnats that plagued paleontologists, students, museum staff and volunteers during the 13-year effort to unearth the dinosaur’s remains from a quarry in southeast Utah. Museum staff nicknamed the dinosaur Gnatalie while they were still digging it up, a process that lasted from 2007 to 2019.

The long-necked, long-tailed skeleton will be the focal point of the NHM Commons, a $75 million welcome center currently under construction on the southwest end of the museum in Exposition Park. Slated to open this fall, the Commons will offer gardens, an outdoor plaza, a 400-seat theater and a glass-walled welcome center that can be toured without a ticket.

“The efforts of hundreds of people contributed to what you see here, ground to mount,” said paleontologist Luis Chiappe, director of the Dinosaur Institute at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County.

The specimen appears to be part of a new species, similar to the Diplodocus, which will be scientifically named in the future. Thanks to celadonite minerals that replaced organic matter during the fossilization process, the mounted skeleton has a unique greenish-brown hue.

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The skeleton is made up of about 350 fossils from six different animals whose bones washed into a river after death some 150 million years ago and commingled.

“We are delighted to see how many people voted and how much they loved our name for this unusual dinosaur,” said Lori Bettison-Varga, President and Director of the Natural History Museums of Los Angeles County.

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