Science
Scientists struggle to understand the competition between Omicron and Delta
Because the pandemic’s third yr dawns, People are feeling fatigued and confused. And it’s all Omicron’s fault.
Even scientists are deeply unsure about how rapidly and even whether or not the brand new variant will eclipse Delta, in addition to who’s more likely to fall sick with which variant and the way sick these folks will change into.
“It does really feel like Omicron has modified all the things we thought we knew” concerning the virus, mentioned Dr. Megan Ranney, affiliate dean of Brown College’s College of Public Well being. “This appears like an odd turning level, probably, within the pandemic.”
Clues concerning the pandemic’s subsequent part have begun to emerge, however they’ve been conflicting and vulnerable to error. Torrents of recent information and statistics tumble out each day, however what they imply isn’t all the time clear. Some appear fairly reassuring, others deeply alarming.
In the meantime, selections must be made: Go to grandma in her nursing house? Attend that New 12 months’s gathering? Wait hours in line for a COVID check since you awakened with a scratchy throat? Ship your child again to varsity when she may be despatched house in two weeks? Put on a masks … in all places?
Right here’s what we find out about Omicron and the state of the pandemic — and what we don’t.
New infections
The US has notched a brand new excessive in confirmed infections, with a median of 277,241 new instances a day for the final full week of 2021.
The earlier document was 259,759, set early final January. Per week later, each day COVID-19 deaths reached their zenith of 4,048, and for the following month that determine hardly ever fell under 2,000.
As worrisome as that historical past sounds, it’s unlikely to repeat itself, as a result of there are stark variations between then and now. Most significantly, the variety of People who’re totally vaccinated has gone from about 350,000 to greater than 204 million, with 68 million of these having additionally obtained a booster shot.
Hospitalizations
Amongst folks over 65, the vaccinated are six instances much less probably than the unvaccinated to be hospitalized for COVID-19. The distinction is twice that for folks 18 to 49.
The advantage of vaccines seems evident within the present surge. Whereas hospitalizations climbed virtually 20% within the week that ended Monday, hitting a each day common of 9,442, that determine is 43% under the height almost a yr in the past.
Equally, with a median of 1,085 deaths a day during the last week, COVID-19 is killing about half as many individuals because it did throughout final winter’s surge.
Nonetheless, it’s unclear how the surge in instances will play out, as a result of it sometimes takes two to 4 weeks for an an infection to ship an individual to the hospital. Those that die of COVID-19 usually spend weeks within the hospital earlier than succumbing.
And even after hospitalization and dying charges are identified, researchers must sift via medical information and genetic information to match the results of Omicron and Delta, and the way vaccination and variant kind interacted. That work might take weeks or months.
Within the meantime, researchers in locations which were host to the Omicron variant for a bit longer than the USA have supplied a potential glimpse of the long run right here.
An evaluation by South African scientists suggests that folks considered contaminated with Omicron have been about 70% much less more likely to change into severely sick and 80% much less more likely to be hospitalized than those that have been contaminated with Delta.
A research carried out in England discovered that after accounting for the results of vaccination, Omicron-infected folks have been about 45% much less probably than folks contaminated with Delta to wind up within the hospital.
Omicron’s quest for dominance
It’s unclear whether or not the present tendencies are being pushed extra by the Omicron variant or by the Delta variant.
On Dec. 22, a projection launched by the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention advised that Omicron had rocketed to dominance in the USA, leaping from 3% of all instances to 73% over two weeks in early December.
Information stories handled Omicron’s sudden takeover as a fait accompli slightly than the projection it was. The stories additionally appeared to counsel that the brand new variant was liable for different stunning developments: New instances had topped these seen in final September’s wave, and intensive care models nationally had reached about three-quarters capability.
The projection, it turned out, was mistaken.
Per week later, the CDC would downgrade Omicron’s presence on Dec. 18 to an estimated 22.5% of recent U.S. instances, predicting that by Christmas Day that determine would hit 59%. That projection might change too.
Although nonetheless rather more transmissible than Delta, Omicron doesn’t appear to have carried out the gorgeous coup that had been introduced. What occurred?
The CDC oversees the sequencing of about 80,000 specimens per week — about 14% of recent instances, eventually depend — but it surely takes weeks to compile the outcomes. That’s too sluggish for public well being authorities guiding present coverage.
So the company’s modelers should take three-week-old information and make judgments about how that blend of variants is more likely to have modified. That train, often called “Nowcasting,” makes use of a smattering of newer genetic sequencing outcomes equipped by the states to replace a variant’s nationwide development fee. However selecting the mistaken pattern — a simple mistake in a extremely fluid state of affairs — can result in important errors.
The large takeaway: the Delta variant remains to be very a lot amongst us.
Emory College epidemiologist Jodie Visitor mentioned that in a surge of recent instances, Delta is more likely to do what it has performed since its arrival final March: ship many who stay unvaccinated to the hospital, or worse.
“I routinely hear that Omicron is delicate, not going to be an enormous deal, and hopefully that’s true,” Visitor mentioned. “However clearly Delta remains to be right here, and everybody took Delta fairly significantly. It is sensible from the hospitalizations we’re seeing that there’s extra Delta occurring than we had estimated.”
Testing
The Biden administration introduced this month that it could make at-home testing available. The goal is to make it simpler for folks to determine in the event that they’re contaminated and act to stop the unfold of the virus.
However it is usually probably so as to add one other layer of uncertainty to our understanding of the pandemic, as a result of it signifies that fewer folks will obtain PCR exams.
Gathered from each nook of the USA and zealously tracked by the CDC, optimistic PCR exams have been the premise for detecting pandemic scorching spots, measuring vaccine safety, determining the transmissibility of recent variants and alerting authorities to coming waves of hospitalizations and deaths. Researchers additionally observe what occurs after a optimistic PCR check — asymptomatic sickness, hospitalization, dying, lengthy COVID — to realize insights into particular person and group vulnerabilities.
All of that may change into much less dependable as extra People use at-home antigen exams, whose outcomes is not going to be centrally compiled. Some individuals who get a optimistic studying on an antigen check could search to substantiate it with a PCR check. However most will in all probability not, which means extra infections received’t make it into the official case depend.
“Testing has already began to shift, and it’s probably already impacted the accuracy of our case counts,” Ranney mentioned.
On the similar time, the more and more DIY nature of diagnosing an an infection “is partly the pure evolution of dealing with this virus,” she mentioned.
If the Omicron variant proves to be milder, and vaccines proceed to guard towards extreme sickness, optimistic antigen exams will largely be adopted by delicate sickness. At that time, the CDC might focus extra on counting extreme diseases and deaths.
“We’re going to should get extra refined about how we take into consideration this virus,” Ranney mentioned.
Science
California hospitals scramble on earthquake retrofits as state limits extensions
More than half of the 410 hospitals in California have at least one building that probably wouldn’t be able to operate after a major earthquake hit their region, and with many institutions claiming that they don’t have the money to meet a 2030 legal deadline for earthquake retrofits, the state is now granting relief to some while ramping up pressure on others to get the work done.
Gov. Gavin Newsom in September vetoed legislation championed by the California Hospital Assn. that would have allowed all hospitals to apply for an extension of the deadline for up to five years. Instead, the Democratic governor signed a more narrowly tailored bill that allows small, rural or “distressed” hospitals to get an extension of up to three years.
“It’s an expensive thing and a complicated thing for hospitals — independent hospitals in particular,” said Elizabeth Mahler, an associate chief medical officer for Alameda Health System, which serves Northern California’s East Bay and is undertaking a$25-million retrofit of its hospital in Alameda, on an island beside Oakland.
The debate over how seismically safe California hospitals should be dates to the 1971 Sylmar quake near Los Angeles, which prompted a law requiring new hospitals to be built to withstand an earthquake and continue operating. In 1994, after the magnitude 6.7 Northridge quake killed at least 57 people, lawmakers required existing facilities to be upgraded.
The two laws have left California hospitals with two sets of standards to meet. The first — which originally had a deadline of 2008 but was pushed to 2020 — required hospital buildings to stay standing after an earthquake. About 20 facilities have yet to meet that requirement for at least one of their buildings, although some have received extensions from the state.
Many more — 674 buildings, spread across 251 licensed hospitals — do not meet the second set of standards, which require hospital facilities to remain functional in the event of a major earthquake. That work is supposed to be done by 2030.
“The importance of it is hard to argue with,” said Jonathan Stewart, a professor at UCLA’s Samueli School of Engineering, citing a 2023 earthquake in Turkey that damaged or destroyed multiple hospitals. “There were a number of hospitals that were intact but not usable. That’s better than a collapsed structure. But still not what you need at a time of emergency like that.”
The influential hospital industry has unsuccessfully lobbied lawmakers for years to extend the 2030 deadline, though the state has granted various extensions to specific facilities. Newsom’s signature on one of the three bills addressing the issue this year represents a partial victory for the industry.
Hospital administrators have long complained about the steep cost of seismic retrofits.
“While hospitals are working to meet these requirements, many will simply not make the 2030 deadline and be forced by state law to close,” Carmela Coyle, president and chief executive of the California Hospital Assn., wrote in a letter to Newsom before he vetoed the CHA bill. A 2019 Rand Corp. study paid for by the CHA pinned the price of meeting the 2030 standards at $34 billion to $143 billion statewide.
Labor unions representing nurses and other medical workers, however, say that hospitals have had plenty of time to get their buildings into compliance, and that most have the money to do so.
“They’ve had 30 years to do this,” Cathy Kennedy, a nurse in Roseville and one of the presidents of the California Nurses Assn., said in an interview prior to the governor’s action. “We are kicking the can down the road year after year, and unfortunately, lives are going to be lost.”
In his veto message on the CHA bill, Newsom wrote that a blanket five-year extension wasn’t justified, and that any extension “should be limited in scope, granted only on a case-by-case basis to hospitals with demonstrated need and a clear path to compliance, and in combination with strong accountability and enforcement mechanisms.”
He also vetoed a bill directed specifically at helping several hospitals operated by Providence, a Catholic hospital chain.
But he signed a third bill, which allows small, rural and “critical access” hospitals, and some others, to apply for a three-year extension, and directs the Department of Health Care Access and Information to offer them “technical assistance” in meeting the deadline.
The state designates 37 hospitals as providing “critical access.” An additional 56 are considered “small,” meaning they have fewer than 50 beds, 59 are considered “rural,” and 32 are “district” hospitals, meaning they are funded by special government entities called “health care districts.” They can seek a three-year extension as long as they submit a seismic compliance plan and identify milestones for implementing it.
Debi Stebbins, executive director of the Alameda Health Care District, which owns the Alameda Hospital buildings, said small hospitals face a big challenge. Even though Alameda is close to San Francisco and Oakland, the tunnels, bridges, and ferries that connect it to the mainland could easily be shut in an emergency, making the island’s hospital a lifeline.
“It’s an unfunded mandate,” Stebbins said of the state’s 2030 deadline.
The Rand study estimated the average cost of a retrofit at more than $92 million per building, but the amount could vary greatly depending on whether it’s a building that houses hospital beds.
Small and rural hospitals can get some aid from the state through grants financed by the California Electronic Cigarette Excise Tax, but Andrew DiLuccia, spokesperson for the Department of Health Care Access and Information, said that would yield just $2 million to $3 million total annually. He added that the Small and Rural Hospital Relief Program also has received a one-time infusion of $50 million from a tax on health insurers to help with the seismic work.
Labor unions and critics of the extensions often point to the large profits that some hospitals reap: A California Health Care Foundation report published in August found that California’s hospitals made $3.2 billion in profit during the first quarter of 2024. The study notes that there “continues to be wide variation in financial performance among hospitals, with the bottom quartile showing a net income margin of -5%, compared to +13% for the top quartile.”
Stebbins has had to help her district figure out a plan.
After Newsom vetoed a bill in 2022 that would have granted an extension on the seismic retrofit deadline specifically for Alameda Hospital, the hospital system and its partner health care district used parcel tax money to help back a loan.
The cost to retrofit will be about $25 million, and the system is also investing millions more into other projects, such as a new skilled-nursing facility. The construction work is set to be completed in 2027.
“No one wants things crashing in an earthquake or anything else, but at the same time, it’s a burden,” Mahler of Alameda Health System said. “How do we make sure that they get what they need to stay open?”
This article was produced by KFF Health News, a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues.
Science
Solar storm could disrupt communications and display northern lights to parts of California
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a severe geomagnetic storm watch that could disrupt communications, the power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations but also generate a nighttime light show.
The category G4 watch from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center — the second such alert issued this year — warns of the possibility of a solar flare for Thursday and Friday, with a resulting coronal mass ejection from the sun that could disturb Earth’s electromagnetic field.
A sunspot group erupted Tuesday night that gave signs of a strong release of solar material and embedded magnetic fields, also known as a coronal mass ejection, which causes geomagnetic storms when they are directed at Earth, according to the prediction center.
The storm’s impact is an estimation, as scientists don’t know for certain the effect of this geomagnetic storm until it arrives near two satellites that are 1 million miles from Earth, said Sean Dahl, service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center.
The coronal mass ejection is predicted to reach the satellites Thursday morning, Eastern time. Experts could not offer an exact time. When that happens, the geomagnetic storm is expected to reach Earth 15 to 30 minutes later.
A severe geomagnetic storm includes the potential for an aurora borealis — also known as the northern lights — visible as far south as Alabama and Northern California.
At this time, scientists couldn’t point to specific times or exact locations where the aurora might be visible.
If you want to catch a glimpse of the aurora, experts recommend that you follow along with the Prediction Center’s aurora dashboard and the 30-minute forecast online for updates.
NOAA experts say the best time for greater aurora visibility is between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. from a high vantage point with minimal light pollution.
Experts say this severe geomagnetic storm won’t surpass the storm that occurred in May when a storm was caused by a series of coronal mass ejections. This time around there is only one coronal mass ejection and experts believe the duration of the event will be much shorter.
Science
Study: Severe COVID raised risk of heart attack, stroke as much as having heart disease
People hospitalized for COVID-19 early in the pandemic suffered an increased risk of serious “cardiac events” such as heart attacks and strokes that was akin to people with a history of heart disease, a newly released study has found.
Researchers from USC, UCLA and the Cleveland Clinic analyzed more than 10,000 COVID cases tracked by the UK Biobank to examine how COVID affected the risk of heart attacks and other cardiac threats.
Their study, released Wednesday in the journal Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology, assessed outcomes for people sickened in the first year of the pandemic and followed for a period of nearly three years.
The findings underscore that among “people who don’t have any evidence of heart disease, having severe COVID put them at a significantly increased risk of heart attack, stroke and death,” said principal investigator Hooman Allayee, professor of population and public health sciences at USC’s Keck School of Medicine.
Among the most striking findings: Being hospitalized for COVID in 2020 amplified the risk of heart attacks and other cardiac events so much that it ended up being comparable to people who had a history of heart disease but who hadn’t gotten COVID, the study found.
Although the analysis showed that the added risk was especially stark among people with severe cases, researchers stressed it was still apparent for patients who had gotten any form of COVID.
Such risks were roughly twice as high in people who had gotten COVID at all levels of severity, and four times as high for hospitalized cases, compared with people who hadn’t gotten COVID, the study found.
The study indicates that the increased risk “shows no apparent signs of attenuation up to nearly three years after SARS-CoV-2 infection and suggest that COVID-19 continues to pose a significant public health burden with lingering adverse cardiovascular risk,” they wrote.
Scientists also found that the risk differed by blood type: Being hospitalized for COVID ramped up the risks among people with blood types A, B or AB more than it did among people with type O blood.
“Your genetics actually plays a role in this increased risk of developing future heart attacks and stroke,” said James Hilser, a Keck doctoral candidate in biochemistry and molecular medicine who helped write the paper.
Researchers said their findings could help shape how doctors try to head off such health problems in the future. Doctors routinely offer preventative treatment to patients with medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes that put them at a higher risk of heart attack or stroke.
Allayee said that if someone walks into a doctor’s office and is newly diagnosed with diabetes, “it doesn’t matter what their cholesterol is … They get put on a lipid-lowering medication. They get put on a baby aspirin.”
But when physicians think about preventing heart attacks, “nobody is taking into consideration COVID — whether it’s severe or otherwise — in how to manage a patient,” Allayee said. In light of the findings, he said, “this is something that doctors should be discussing,” as should regulatory bodies for cardiac care.
The study, which was funded by the National Institutes of Health, had some limitations: It examined only COVID cases early in the pandemic before vaccines became available. (Another study published earlier this year, which also relied on the UK Biobank data, found that the incidence of heart attacks and strokes was generally lower after each dose of a COVID vaccine.)
Researchers also cautioned that some COVID patients may have had undiagnosed heart disease when they were hospitalized, which would not be evident in the UK Biobank data.
-
Technology1 week ago
Charter will offer Peacock for free with some cable subscriptions next year
-
World1 week ago
Ukrainian stronghold Vuhledar falls to Russian offensive after two years of bombardment
-
World1 week ago
WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange says he pleaded ‘guilty to journalism’ in order to be freed
-
Technology1 week ago
Beware of fraudsters posing as government officials trying to steal your cash
-
Health6 days ago
Health, happiness and helping others are vital parts of free and responsible society, Founding Fathers taught
-
Virginia1 week ago
Status for Daniels and Green still uncertain for this week against Virginia Tech; Reuben done for season
-
Sports7 days ago
Freddie Freeman says his ankle sprain is worst injury he's ever tried to play through
-
News6 days ago
Lebanon says 50 medics killed in past three days as Israel extends its bombardment