Science
Raft by Raft, a Rainforest Loses Its Trees
Forests just like the one within the Congo Basin pull enormous quantities of carbon dioxide out of the air, making them important to gradual world warming. The expanded scale of unlawful logging imperils their function in defending humanity’s future.
The forest of the huge Congo Basin, second in dimension solely to the Amazon, is turning into more and more important as a protection towards local weather change because the Amazon is felled. Nonetheless, the Democratic Republic of Congo for a number of years in a row has been shedding extra old-growth rainforest, analysis reveals, than any nation apart from Brazil.
On this lawless commerce, the river is the artery to the world. In some locations, the place once-towering timber are ready for the journey, the water itself is stained caramel from the bleeding sap of felled timber.
Day by day alongside the forested Congo River banks, rafts held along with little greater than roping and optimism set out on the arduous voyage.
Our journey started not removed from the group of Loaka.
Loaka is nestled alongside a tributary flowing into the Congo River. Dozens of wood homes are perched on stilts. Canoes dug from tree trunks line the shore. Branches used for cooking fires smolder in piles close by.
And on the water not too long ago, a flotilla was taking form.
Males have been peeling switches of vines to tie collectively a raft of dozens of logs reduce from the forest of their yard. Their vacation spot: the sprawling riverside lumber ports of the capital metropolis, Kinshasa, tons of of miles downriver.
It’s a venture involving nearly everybody in Loaka, a rising group that merely can’t make sufficient cash from fishing to broaden its cramped faculty, not to mention purchase backpacks and different provides.
Not one of the males have been longing for the journey, although. The final time they tried it, the journey was a disaster.
“We had so many issues,” stated Bosenga Kongamondo, the city’s high official.
Again then, they’d set out with 120 logs, however catastrophe struck nearly instantly.
The raft hit a sandbar, ripping free dozens of logs, which floated away. Then, the lads received stranded on one other sandbar for days. Whereas they have been caught, a violent rainstorm swept away much more logs.
Weeks later, after they lastly reached Kinshasa, the lads had solely 37 left to promote. But the village right now feels it has no alternative however to strive as soon as extra, even with out correct slicing permits.
Alphonse Molosa wandered into the thicket not too long ago and clambered atop a conquest: an enormous African coralwood tree mendacity on the forest flooring, its brilliant orange insides bared.
Felling such a tree doesn’t give Mr. Molosa any sense of accomplishment, he stated. The truth is, he counts himself a lover of timber. He appears ahead to the blooming of afromosia timber, also called African teak, a uncommon species with reds so vibrant he can spot them from his boat in the course of the river.
“Ah, it’s lovely,” Mr. Molosa stated. “I heard on the radio that timber assist to offer us oxygen that we breathe and for us to outlive. However right here there isn’t a different option to survive with out slicing timber.”
In a couple of weeks, after they’ve collected sufficient logs, he and his neighbors deliberate to push them into the river and as soon as once more hop aboard.
Just a few miles downriver, we stopped at a logging seashore the place a floating market catered to employees on an enormous industrial raft that dwarfed those assembled by Mr. Molosa and his neighbors.
Right here, some 250 large logs with ragged, floppy bark have been being strung with metal cables and readied for the river at a small seashore utilized by a global logging firm.
Industrial logging in Congo is laden with corruption, in response to a current authorities audit. Profitable licenses have been handed out as political favors. The truth is, the previous six ministers of surroundings, the very individuals accountable for defending the forest, are accused of illegally promoting off enormous swaths of it, in response to the audit, which reviewed Congo’s industrial logging as of 2020.
Practically all of the logging, Congolese officers say, right now is in some trend unlawful.
“Fraud upon fraud,” stated Ève Bazaiba Masudi, Congo’s surroundings minister, who was appointed in April 2021. Just a few months into the job, Ms. Bazaiba opened an investigation after saying her personal signature had been cast on logging licenses.
Monitoring timber in Congo generally is a circuitous route, stuffed with shady characters and massive cash. The large timber lining the seashore downriver from Loaka belonged to a Chinese language firm, Castor, which employees and managers on the seashore stated was tied to “Tango Fort,” the nickname of a Congolese common, Gabriel Amisi Kumba.
Over time, Basic Amisi has been accused of involvement in unlawful mining and arms buying and selling and was sanctioned for human rights abuses by the American and European authorities. His logging concessions, which he bought to Chinese language buyers in 2018, have been issued illegally, the federal government audit stated. In a textual content message, Basic Amisi denied any connection to the corporate.
Neighboring international locations resembling Gabon have put tight controls on logging lately. Ms. Bazaiba, who can also be deputy prime minister, is below nice strain to do the identical and has begun an effort to rein in corruption that features suspending logging licenses that got out illegally. She and Congo’s president in 2021 secured pledges of $500 million from worldwide donors to battle deforestation.
Throughout a March go to to her workplace in Kinshasa, timber trade lobbyists hovered outdoors her door. Main them was Albert Yuma Mulimbi, the top of the nation’s enterprise foyer. Final yr he was ousted as chairman of the state mining enterprise, Gécamines, amid corruption allegations. Mr. Yuma didn’t return a request for remark.
“I’ve so many pressures,” Ms. Bazaiba stated.
However the logging commerce performs out in locations far faraway from world conferences and stuffy authorities places of work within the capital metropolis.
Out on the river, the place the silvery water is indiscernible from the sky, the perilous and haphazard nature of the commerce turns into clear.
A tugboat was bobbing within the shallow water off Castor’s seashore, getting ready to energy a flotilla of logs downriver.
The large rafts are too unwieldy for the tug’s engine to deal with, the crew stated, making the work harmful. They earn about $6 a day. If logs are misplaced, pay is docked, and “if we die, it’s not the duty of the corporate,” stated Mbranda Makombo, the tugboat’s mechanic, a veteran of 5 journeys guiding logs to Kinshasa.
Just some weeks earlier than, Mr. Makombo stated he did, actually, almost die. He and his spouse and baby have been sleeping beneath deck when a bigger boat rammed them. His household was saved solely by males from the opposite boat who reduce via the twisted metallic.
As Mr. Makombo spoke, Jean-Louis Boonga Ifaso, an agricultural engineer for Castor, the logging firm, sidled up in a dugout canoe, listening in.
Castor does the correct issues, he stated. It operates a manufacturing facility in Kinshasa the place logs are remodeled into planks utilized in building, and it exports wooden worldwide. (A rustic supervisor for Castor didn’t return requests for remark.)
However Mr. Boonga, who additionally works as an activist, stated he knew effectively the issues of the commerce. He sat in his shallow canoe, gently rocking on the river, and vented: In regards to the energy of cash. About authorities inaction. About how Congo is a sufferer of air pollution created by the industrialized nations that now need Congo’s timber — the identical timber that may assist soak up carbon dioxide from the soiled world they made. In regards to the guidelines that govern the forest that nobody obeys.
Worldwide corporations observe most legal guidelines, he stated, however not all of them. “On the subject of human assets and their Congolese workers, they don’t have any respect,” he stated.
On the water, disrespect takes many kinds. Brutal rainstorms. Hidden sandbars. And calls for for bribes.
“Push! Push!”
Throughout the water we heard a captain calling out to a dozen males in waist-deep water, toes wrinkled from a full day spent attempting to interrupt free their 46-log vessel, which was caught on a sandbar.
On the opposite facet of the raft, Clémentine Ekoba, the cook dinner and cleaner for the crew, tended a small fireplace. “Each journey this occurs,” she sighed.
“The most important drawback is getting caught within the sand. The second greatest drawback is the navy.” Officers alongside the river, underpaid themselves, are infamous for demanding bribes.
Already on this journey, Ms. Ekoba stated, in simply two weeks’ time the crew had paid bribes of flour, beans and aspirin. “They arrive they usually take every thing — even this,” she stated, pointing to an oar.
Ms. Ekoba maintained a secret hiding place beneath the nylon bag stretched between sticks that serves as her tent the place she had squirreled away $50 value of Congolese francs. Thus far, officers hadn’t discovered it.
“However we nonetheless have a protracted journey,” she stated.
“We import toothpicks”
Not all logs journey by raft. Some worldwide corporations function immense metal barges heaped excessive with wooden destined for abroad.
A jumble of giant logs rested atop one of many barges at a riverside seashore operated by Sodefor, a subsidiary of a Liechtenstein-based firm.
Close by, a person squatted beside a freshly reduce bilinga tree. He pulled out a measuring tape and stretched it throughout the sawed trunk, as gold as ripened wheat. It was greater than six toes throughout.
Industrial barges like Sodefor’s aren’t proof against the lack of cargo from storms that blow throughout the river, although the massive corporations have refined methods to recapture the logs that get away. Sodefor has even deployed sonar and divers to retrieve logs that spilled into the river throughout a storm.
In an interview, Sodefor’s common supervisor, José Trindade, stated the corporate’s operations have been “utterly authorized.”
“The federal government has to distinguish between the businesses that respect the foundations and people who don’t,” he stated.
Sodefor additionally transforms its timber into plywood earlier than export, Mr. Trindade stated, a follow that Ms. Bazaiba, the surroundings minister, would really like all worldwide corporations to undertake. Lately, she banned exports of uncut timber within the hope that the businesses would rent extra Congolese to form the wooden, relatively than filling these jobs overseas.
“Are you able to think about, we’ve been exporting our timber, however we import toothpicks from China?” she stated. “It is mindless.”
We pulled onto the shore of Bolobo, a bustling hamlet at a bend within the river that was affected by tons of of planks scattered throughout the sand, remnants of a catastrophe nonetheless enjoying out.
Three months earlier, a crew of 20 males had set off with a raft of 6,000 good planks, precut in hopes of getting the next value downriver in Kinshasa. They’d pulled into Bolobo to restock on meals when a storm blew in. Very quickly, 1,000 planks had slipped into the river and have been swept away, together with a shelter they’d constructed atop their raft.
For 2 weeks, employees had been slowly reassembling the craft. Males stood in chest-high water, heaving towards a big department they hoped would pry free part of the raft, now half-buried in sand.
“The wind is just not your brother,” stated André Ezabela, one of many raft’s rowers.
Etienne Yaekela, the proprietor of the planks, had arrived from Kinshasa simply days earlier than to survey the harm. “Thank God nobody died,” he informed the lads as soon as he noticed the extent of the harm.
Over what was left of the raft, the wind whipped a pink and blue Congolese flag. Our motorboat broke down right here, too, and so we waited two days for our personal repairs, watching boys on the seashore utilizing a damaged plank as a teeter-totter.
As we pulled out of Bolobo, we noticed water lapping throughout one other damaged raft, this one deserted. Just a few items of wooden remained barely tethered, threatening to interrupt free right into a river prepared to say them. A monument to defeat for individuals who would go.
About 60 miles downstream from Bolobo, the river narrows considerably and deepens. Sandbars disappear. However there are different dangers.
Crocodiles roam the banks. Navy patrols enhance. Malaria is ever-present.
Nehemie Mokonjo and his raft of 137 logs had made it this far, shedding solely two.
However the mosquito netting that lashed them collectively was beginning to fray. If the wind picked up, Mr. Mokonjo’s cargo can be in peril. “There may be nothing else that scares us extra,” he stated.
But he had a extra pressing drawback: His little sister was sick.
Jeanne Nzambe, 6, was aboard together with her mom, the raft’s cook dinner. Carrying a poofy pink satin gown with white polka dots and sparkly belt, she lay drooped throughout the logs below a shelter of mosquito netting. She had been feverish for 3 days.
The closest hospital was in Kinshasa, 15 hours away by raft. However our vessel, a motorboat, may get there in three.
As a lot because the river leaves individuals in want, it additionally creates kinship. Folks assist each other.
Mr. Mokonjo hopped aboard, cradling his sister, and the boat raced downriver to discover a clinic.
College desks, superyachts
A criminal within the river, and Kinshasa’s sprawling port of Kinkole comes into view. It’s the final cease for women and men who’ve spent weeks or months on the river. However not for the timber they’ve shepherded right here.
Rafts line up by the handfuls, tangled within the lily pads of a grimy marsh, ready within the shallows in what is basically a watery parking zone.
Alongside the shore, a cacophony of rumbling forklifts hauls tree trunks throughout knee-deep ruts in dried mud. Screaming chainsaws tear via wooden, spitting splinters into the air. Barefoot laborers muscle logs up the riverbank the place males form them into plywood and planks. Girls acquire scraps of bark to promote to be used in cooking fires.
All have discovered a option to revenue from Congo’s timber. For them, the forest is the one choice for survival.
Disappointment awaits among the rafts’ captains who arrive to seek out their logs are too skinny and immature for buy. All that approach for nothing.
Logs which might be bought right here will find yourself in Kinshasa’s lecture rooms, the place college students clamor for brand new desks. Others shall be taken overseas to be used as “unique wooden” prospers in billionaires’ yachts that line glittering ports. Many will find yourself in residing rooms everywhere in the world, shaped into trendy tables and cupboards that started as towering timber in Congo earlier than being crafted within the furnishings factories of China or Vietnam.
And the urge for food for these timber reveals no indicators of slowing.
Subsequent door to Kinshasa’s logging port, large new logging barges are being cast as quick as doable, employees say two or three a month, to ship again up the river to collect, all of the extra effectively, much more treasured logs.
Science
There's a reason you can't stop doomscrolling through L.A.'s fire disaster
Even for those lucky enough to get out in time, or to live outside the evacuation zones, there has been no escape from the fires in the Los Angeles area this week.
There is hardly a vantage point in the city from which flames or plumes of smoke are not visible, nowhere the scent of burning memories can’t reach.
And on our screens — on seemingly every channel and social media feed and text thread and WhatsApp group — an endless carousel of images documents a level of fear, loss and grief that felt unimaginable here as recently as Tuesday morning.
Even in places of physical safety, many in Los Angeles are finding it difficult to look away from the worst of the destruction online.
“To me it’s more comfortable to doomscroll than to sit and wait,” said Clara Sterling, who evacuated from her home Wednesday. “I would rather know exactly where the fire is going and where it’s headed than not know anything at all.”
A writer and comedian, Sterling is — by her own admission — extremely online. But the nature of this week’s fires make it particularly hard to disengage from news coverage and social media, experts said.
For one, there’s a material difference between scrolling through images of a far-off crisis and staying informed about an active disaster unfolding in your neighborhood, said Casey Fiesler, an associate professor specializing in tech ethics at the University of Colorado Boulder.
“It’s weird to even think of it as ‘doomscrolling,’ ” she said. “When you’re in it, you’re also looking for important information that can be really hard to get.”
When you share an identity with the victims of a traumatic event, you’re more likely both to seek out media coverage of the experience and to feel more distressed by the media you see, said Roxane Cohen Silver, distinguished professor of psychological science at UC Irvine.
For Los Angeles residents, this week’s fires are affecting the people we identify with most intimately: family, friends and community members. They have consumed places and landmarks that feature prominently in fond memories and regular routines.
The ubiquitous images have also fueled painful memories for those who have lived through similar disasters — a group whose numbers have increased as wildfires have grown more frequent in California, Silver said.
This she knows personally: She evacuated from the Laguna Beach fires in 1993, and began a long-term study of that fire’s survivors days after returning to her home.
“Throughout California, throughout the West, throughout communities that have had wildfire experience, we are particularly primed and sensitized to that news,” she said. “And the more we immerse ourselves in that news, the more likely we are to experience distress.”
Absorption in these images of fire and ash can cause trauma of its own, said Jyoti Mishra, an associate professor of psychiatry at UC San Diego who studied the long-term psychological health of survivors of the 2018 Camp fire.
The team identified lingering symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety both among survivors who personally experienced fire-related trauma such as injury or property loss, and — to a smaller but still significant degree — among those who indirectly experienced the trauma as witnesses.
“If you’re witnessing [trauma] in the media, happening on the streets that you’ve lived on and walked on, and you can really put yourself in that place, then it can definitely be impactful,” said Mishra, who’s also co-director of the UC Climate Change and Mental Health Council. “Psychology and neuroscience research has shown that images and videos that generate a sense of personal meaning can have deep emotional impacts.”
The emotional pull of the videos and images on social media make it hard to look away, even as many find the information there much harder to trust.
Like many others, Sterling spent a lot of time online during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then, Sterling said, the social media environment felt decidedly different.
“This time around I think I feel less informed about what’s going on because there’s been such a big push toward not fact-checking and getting rid of verified accounts,” she said.
The rise of AI-generated images and photos has added another troubling kink, as Sterling highlighted in a video posted to TikTok early Thursday.
“The Hollywood sign was not on fire last night. Any video or photos that you saw of the Hollywood sign on fire were fake. They were AI generated,” she said, posting from a hotel in San Diego after evacuating.
Hunter Ditch, a producer and voice actor in Lake Balboa, raised similar concerns about the lack of accurate information. Some social media content she’s encountered seemed “very polarizing” or political, and some exaggerated the scope of the disaster or featured complete fabrications, such as that flaming Hollywood sign.
The spread of false information has added another layer of stress, she said. This week, she started turning to other types of app — like the disaster mapping app, Watch Duty — to track the spreading fires and changing evacuation zones.
But that made her wonder: “If I have to check a whole other app for accurate information, then what am I even doing on social media at all?”
Science
Pink Fire Retardant, a Dramatic Wildfire Weapon, Poses Its Own Dangers
From above the raging flames, these planes can unleash immense tankfuls of bright pink fire retardant in just 20 seconds. They have long been considered vital in the battle against wildfires.
But emerging research has shown that the millions of gallons of retardant sprayed on the landscape to tame wildfires each year come with a toxic burden, because they contain heavy metals and other chemicals that are harmful to human health and the environment.
The toxicity presents a stark dilemma. These tankers and their cargo are a powerful tool for taming deadly blazes. Yet as wildfires intensify and become more frequent in an era of climate change, firefighters are using them more often, and in the process releasing more harmful chemicals into the environment.
Some environmental groups have questioned the retardants’ effectiveness and potential for harm. The efficiency of fire retardant has been hard to measure, because it’s one of a barrage of firefighting tactics deployed in a major fire. After the flames are doused, it’s difficult to assign credit.
The frequency and severity of wildfires has grown in recent years, particularly in the western United States. Scientists have also found that fires across the region have become faster moving in recent decades.
There are also the longer-term health effects of exposure to wildfire smoke, which can penetrate the lungs and heart, causing disease. A recent global survey of the health effects of air pollution caused by wildfires found that in the United States, exposure to wildfire smoke had increased by 77 percent since 2002. Globally, wildfire smoke has been estimated to be responsible for up to 675,000 premature deaths per year.
Fire retardants add to those health and environmental burdens because they present “a really, really thorny trade-off,” said Daniel McCurry, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Southern California, who led the recent research on their heavy-metal content.
The United States Forest Service said on Thursday that nine large retardant-spraying planes, as well as 20 water-dropping helicopters, were being deployed to fight the Southern California fires, which have displaced tens of thousands of people. Several “water scooper” amphibious planes, capable of skimming the surface of the sea or other body of water to fill their tanks, are also being used.
Two large DC-10 aircraft, dubbed “Very Large Airtankers” and capable of delivering up to 9,400 gallons of retardant, were also set to join the fleet imminently, said Stanton Florea, a spokesman for the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, which coordinates national wildland firefighting efforts across the West.
Sprayed ahead of the fire, the retardants coat vegetation and prevent oxygen from allowing it to burn, Mr. Florea said. (Red dye is added so firefighters can see the retardant against the landscape.) And the retardant, typically made of salts like ammonium polyphosphate, “lasts longer. It doesn’t evaporate, like dropping water,” he said.
The new research from Dr. McCurry and his colleagues found, however, that at least four different types of heavy metals in a common type of retardant used by firefighters exceeded California’s requirements for hazardous waste.
Federal data shows that more than 440 million gallons of retardant were applied to federal, state, and private land between 2009 and 2021. Using that figure, the researchers estimated that between 2009 and 2021, more than 400 tons of heavy metals were released into the environment from fire suppression, a third of that in Southern California.
Both the federal government and the retardant’s manufacturer, Perimeter Solutions, have disputed that analysis, saying the researchers had evaluated a different version of the retardant. Dan Green, a spokesman for Perimeter, said retardants used for aerial firefighting had passed “extensive testing to confirm they meet strict standards for aquatic and mammalian safety.”
Still, the findings help explain why concentrations of heavy metals tend to surge in rivers and streams after wildfires, sometimes by hundreds of times. And as scrutiny of fire suppressants has grown, the Forestry Service has set buffer zones surrounding lakes and rivers, though its own data shows retardant still inadvertently drifts into those waters.
In 2022, the environmental nonprofit Forest Service Employees for Environmental Ethics sued the government in federal court in Montana, demanding that the Forest Service obtain a permit under the Clean Water Act to cover accidental spraying into waterways.
The judge ruled that the agency did indeed need to obtain a permit. But it allowed retardant use to continue to protect lives and property.
Science
2024 Brought the World to a Dangerous Warming Threshold. Now What?
At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, Earth finished up its hottest year in recorded history, scientists said on Friday. The previous hottest year was 2023. And the next one will be upon us before long: By continuing to burn huge amounts of coal, oil and gas, humankind has all but guaranteed it.
The planet’s record-high average temperature last year reflected the weekslong, 104-degree-Fahrenheit spring heat waves that shuttered schools in Bangladesh and India. It reflected the effects of the bathtub-warm ocean waters that supercharged hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and cyclones in the Philippines. And it reflected the roasting summer and fall conditions that primed Los Angeles this week for the most destructive wildfires in its history.
“We are facing a very new climate and new challenges, challenges that our society is not prepared for,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union monitoring agency.
But even within this progression of warmer years and ever-intensifying risks to homes, communities and the environment, 2024 stood out in another unwelcome way. According to Copernicus, it was the first year in which global temperatures averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above those the planet experienced at the start of the industrial age.
For the past decade, the world has sought to avoid crossing this dangerous threshold. Nations enshrined the goal in the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change. “Keep 1.5 alive” was the mantra at United Nations summits.
Yet here we are. Global temperatures will fluctuate somewhat, as they always do, which is why scientists often look at warming averaged over longer periods, not just a single year.
But even by that standard, staying below 1.5 degrees looks increasingly unattainable, according to researchers who have run the numbers. Globally, despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested in clean-energy technologies, carbon dioxide emissions hit a record in 2024 and show no signs of dropping.
One recent study published in the journal Nature concluded that the absolute best humanity can now hope for is around 1.6 degrees of warming. To achieve it, nations would need to start slashing emissions at a pace that would strain political, social and economic feasibility.
But what if we’d started earlier?
“It was guaranteed we’d get to this point where the gap between reality and the trajectory we needed for 1.5 degrees was so big it was ridiculous,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at the University of California, San Diego.
The question now is what, if anything, should replace 1.5 as a lodestar for nations’ climate aspirations.
“These top-level goals are at best a compass,” Dr. Victor said. “They’re a reminder that if we don’t do more, we’re in for significant climate impacts.”
The 1.5-degree threshold was never the difference between safety and ruin, between hope and despair. It was a number negotiated by governments trying to answer a big question: What’s the highest global temperature increase — and the associated level of dangers, whether heat waves or wildfires or melting glaciers — that our societies should strive to avoid?
The result, as codified in the Paris agreement, was that nations would aspire to hold warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while “pursuing efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
Even at the time, some experts called the latter goal unrealistic, because it required such deep and rapid emissions cuts. Still, the United States, the European Union and other governments adopted it as a guidepost for climate policy.
Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said the urgency of the 1.5 target spurred companies of all kinds — automakers, cement manufacturers, electric utilities — to start thinking hard about what it would mean to zero out their emissions by midcentury. “I do think that has led to some serious action,” Dr. Bertram said.
But the high aspiration of the 1.5 target also exposed deep fault lines among nations.
China and India never backed the goal, since it required them to curb their use of coal, gas and oil at a pace they said would hamstring their development. Rich countries that were struggling to cut their own emissions began choking off funding in the developing world for fossil-fuel projects that were economically beneficial. Some low-income countries felt it was deeply unfair to ask them to sacrifice for the climate given that it was wealthy nations — and not them — that had produced most of the greenhouse gases now warming the world.
“The 1.5-degree target has created a lot of tension between rich and poor countries,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research organization.
Costa Samaras, an environmental-engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, compared the warming goals to health officials’ guidelines on, say, cholesterol. “We don’t set health targets on what’s realistic or what’s possible,” Dr. Samaras said. “We say, ‘This is what’s good for you. This is how you’re going to not get sick.’”
“If we were going to say, ‘Well, 1.5 is likely out of the question, let’s put it to 1.75,’ it gives people a false sense of assurance that 1.5 was not that important,” said Dr. Samaras, who helped shape U.S. climate policy from 2021 to 2024 in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “It’s hugely important.”
Scientists convened by the United Nations have concluded that restricting warming to 1.5 degrees instead of 2 would spare tens of millions of people from being exposed to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. It might mean the difference between a world that has coral reefs and Arctic sea ice in the summer, and one that doesn’t.
Each tiny increment of additional warming, whether it’s 1.6 degrees versus 1.5, or 1.7 versus 1.6, increases the risks. “Even if the world overshoots 1.5 degrees, and the chances of this happening are increasing every day, we must keep striving” to bring emissions to zero as soon as possible, said Inger Anderson, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program.
Officially, the sun has not yet set on the 1.5 target. The Paris agreement remains in force, even as President-elect Donald J. Trump vows to withdraw the United States from it for a second time. At U.N. climate negotiations, talk of 1.5 has become more muted compared with years past. But it has hardly gone away.
“With appropriate measures, 1.5 Celsius is still achievable,” Cedric Schuster, the minister of natural resources and environment for the Pacific island nation of Samoa, said at last year’s summit in Azerbaijan. Countries should “rise to the occasion with new, highly ambitious” policies, he said.
To Dr. Victor of U.C. San Diego, it is strange but all too predictable that governments keep speaking this way about what appears to be an unachievable aim. “No major political leader who wants to be taken seriously on climate wants to stick their neck out and say, ‘1.5 degrees isn’t feasible. Let’s talk about more realistic goals,’” he said.
Still, the world will eventually need to have that discussion, Dr. Victor said. And it’s unclear how it will go.
“It could be constructive, where we start asking, ‘How much warming are we really in for? And how do we deal with that?’” he said. “Or it could look very toxic, with a bunch of political finger pointing.”
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