Science
How America Watches for a Nuclear Strike
In late February, when President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared that his nation’s nuclear arms had been getting into “particular fight readiness,” America’s surveillance gear went on excessive alert. Lots of of imaging satellites, in addition to different non-public and federal spacecraft, started searching for indicators of heightened exercise amongst Russia’s bombers, missiles, submarines and storage bunkers, which maintain hundreds of nuclear warheads.
The orbital fleet has but to identify something worthy of concern, picture analysts stated. Echoing the non-public assessments, U.S. and NATO officers have reported no indicators that Russia is making ready for nuclear conflict. “We haven’t seen something that’s made us modify our posture, our nuclear posture,” Jake Sullivan, the nationwide safety adviser to President Biden, instructed reporters on March 23.
However America’s atomic watchdogs have purpose to proceed wanting, consultants stated. Moscow has lengthy practiced utilizing comparatively small nuclear blasts to offset battlefield losses. And a few army consultants are involved over what Mr. Putin may do, after setbacks in Ukraine, to revive his popularity for edgy ruthlessness.
If Russia had been making ready for atomic conflict, it will usually disperse its bombers to scale back their vulnerability to enemy assault, stated Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Data Undertaking on the Federation of American Scientists, a personal analysis group in Washington. However proper now, he stated, “none of that’s evident.”
Since 1962, when one in every of America’s first spy satellites failed to identify a cargo of missiles and 158 nuclear warheads that Moscow had despatched to Cuba, America’s surveillance powers in orbit have soared. Right now, a whole lot of private and non-private imaging satellites regularly scan the planet to evaluate crops, map cities, handle forests and, more and more, unveil the secretive doings of nuclear states.
Russia’s arsenal exceeds all different nations’ nuclear stockpiles in dimension, making a problem for analysts to totally assess its state of play. Personal American corporations resembling Maxar, Capella House and Planet Labs have supplied analysts with a whole lot of close-up photos of Russia’s atomic forces. Planet Labs alone has a constellation of greater than 200 imaging satellites and has made a specialty of zeroing in on army websites.
The non-public fleet tracked Russia’s nuclear forces lengthy earlier than the conflict, revealing upkeep work in addition to routine drills and workouts. That form of baseline understanding helps analysts ferret out true conflict preparations, consultants stated. “You monitor these things and start to get a way of what regular appears like,” stated Mark M. Lowenthal, a former C.I.A. assistant director for evaluation. “For those who see a deviation, you must ask if one thing’s up.”
A false alarm rang shortly after Mr. Putin’s declaration. A Twitter account, The Lookout, posted {that a} satellite tv for pc had noticed two Russian nuclear submarines leaving a northwestern port. The Specific, a London tabloid, warned in a headline of “strategic readiness.” The information flash bought little consideration as a result of seasoned consultants realized the sub departure was a deliberate train.
Nonetheless, Jeffrey Lewis and Michael Duitsman, satellite tv for pc picture specialists on the Middlebury Institute of Worldwide Research in Monterey, Calif., have continued to observe Russia’s fleet of submarines as a result of their actions can present dependable indications of upper states of nuclear conflict readiness.
Usually, roughly half of Russia’s submarines geared up with long-range missiles exit to sea on scheduled patrols whereas the others stay at their piers for relaxation, repairs and upkeep. Analysts see empty piers as a warning signal.
To evaluate the present state of affairs, Dr. Lewis zoomed in on a big submarine base referred to as Gadzhiyevo in Russia’s Arctic north. Photographs of it on Google Earth present a dozen large piers jutting out from rocky fjords.
The Middlebury workforce examined a close-up picture, taken by Planet on March 7, that confirmed 4 of Russia’s submarines alongside two of Gadzhiyevo’s piers. Mr. Duitsman stated a separate picture of all the base revealed that each one its lively submarines had been in port — suggesting they weren’t making ready for nuclear assault. “Throughout the next state of readiness,” he stated, “I’d anticipate a number of submarines to be out at sea.”
The workforce additionally studied photos of a army base within the Siberian wilds the place cell launchers transfer long-range missiles on backcountry roads as a defensive tactic. Mr. Duitsman stated the photographs — taken March 30 by one in every of Capella’s radar satellites, which may see by means of clouds in addition to nighttime darkness — confirmed no indicators of bizarre exercise.
Lastly, close to the banks of the southern Volga River, the Middlebury workforce checked out Saratov-63, a nuclear arms storage web site for long-range missiles in addition to Russia’s air drive. A bomber base is close by. The pictures, taken by Planet on March 6, revealed a snowy panorama and, Mr. Duitsman stated, no proof of a heightened alert standing.
A senior American army officer in 1998 toured an underground bunker at Saratov-63 and reported that it held not solely extraordinarily highly effective nuclear arms but in addition lesser ones, generally referred to as tactical weapons. The small arms are seen as taking part in lead roles in Russian nuclear strikes as a result of their energy will be fractions of the damaging drive of the nuclear bomb in Hiroshima, Japan, blurring the road between standard and nuclear arms and making them appear extra usable.
Analysts and nuclear consultants say the accumulating proof means that Mr. Putin’s declaration of “fight readiness” was not an order to arrange weapons however quite a sign {that a} conflict message is perhaps coming quickly.
U.N. assembly. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine addressed the United Nations Safety Council, detailing the horrors he noticed in Bucha, the Kyiv suburb the place Russian troops have been accused of killing civilians, and laying out a strong indictment of the U.N.’s failure to forestall the invasion.Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Key Developments
Pavel Podvig, a longtime arms researcher from Russia, stated the alert more than likely primed the Russian army for the potential of a nuclear order. Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet diplomat who negotiated arms-control treaties, agreed. “It’s a sign to the command-and-control chain,” he stated. “It merely means, ‘Come to consideration. An order could also be coming.’”
However Dr. Lewis of the Middlebury Institute stated that Mr. Putin’s order additionally appeared to have despatched extra army personnel into central posts that relay orders and messages amongst dispersed forces. “That’s why we didn’t see something,” he stated. “It was rising the variety of people within the bunkers.” The follow, he added, is a normal a part of how Russia raises its ranges of nuclear readiness: It takes extra folks to hold out conflict preparations than to keep up the websites in a standby mode.
Dr. Lowenthal, the previous C.I.A. assistant director and now a senior lecturer at Johns Hopkins, stated he discovered the personnel facet of Moscow’s escalatory course of probably the most troubling.
“We will develop an excellent baseline on what’s regular” and routine within the motion of Russian nuclear arms, he stated. “It’s the interior stuff that’s at all times worrisome.” Imaging satellites, in any case, can’t see what persons are doing inside buildings and bunkers.
He stated the primary uncertainty was “the extent of automaticity” in Russia’s escalatory conflict alerts — a subject addressed in “The Useless Hand,” a Pulitzer Prize-winning 2009 e-book that described a semiautomatic system meant to function by itself within the occasion that Russia’s leaders had been killed. In that case, Russia’s nuclear authority would devolve to a couple low-ranking officers in a concrete bunker. It’s unclear if Moscow at this time depends on one thing related.
“You’re by no means fairly certain” how Russia goes about authorizing the usage of nuclear arms, Dr. Lowenthal stated. “That’s the form of factor that makes you nervous.”
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
Video: SpaceX Unable to Recover Booster Stage During Sixth Test Flight
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