In the middle of summer, most Southern Californians would be surprised to see more than a handful of clouds in the sky (unless you count clouds of wildfire smoke). But on July 14 in Twentynine Palms, a rapidly developed thunderstorm dropped about 1.88 inches of rain in a couple hours — an overwhelming amount by historical standards for a town that typically gets less than 4 inches in an entire year.

The water rushed along streets and highways, picking up cars and driving debris to damage homes and businesses. Then, while residents were still taking stock of the destruction, nine days later the area was under a flash flood warning again as another thunderstorm moved through.

So why does the Mojave Desert — obviously an extremely arid place — receive all this summer rain while Los Angeles, less than 150 miles away, gets none?

Late summer is the driest time of year for much of California; on average, Los Angeles International Airport receives no rain at all during the month of August. But if you go east over the mountains into San Bernardino County, the pattern suddenly switches — in Twentynine Palms, August is the wettest month. Keep going into Arizona and New Mexico and the late summer precipitation gets even more intense: In Santa Fe, almost half of the year’s rain falls between July and September.

This changeover is the result of a phenomenon called the North American monsoon, which was responsible for the deluge in Twentynine Palms. While it is less well-known than its South Asian counterpart, the North American monsoon plays an important role in the climate of the Four Corners states, bringing crucial moisture to areas that would otherwise be bone dry, but also at times leading to damaging flooding.

All monsoons are driven by the same source: a difference in temperature between land and ocean. During the hot months of late summer, the sun can deliver as much as 1,000 watts per square meter in the subtropics — in terms of power, that’s similar to running a space heater every four feet. Some of this power is reflected into space, but on average more than two-thirds of it is absorbed, either by the land surface or by the ocean.

The essential difference between the two is that the ocean is constantly mixing, which distributes the heat throughout approximately the top 60 feet of ocean water — something that is impossible on land. As a result, the top few inches of soil or rock heat up rapidly over the course of a day, and in turn warm the overlying air.

Monsoon flood waters buckled and damaged the roadway at Kelbaker Road and Mojave Road inside the Mojave National Preserve in August 2022.

(NPS)

Since hot air is less dense than cold air, the air over the land tends to rise, typically in the late afternoon after a full day of baking in the sun. As the air rises from the land, it pulls in moist air from the water — for the North American monsoon, this is the Gulf of California — to replace it. When this moist air reaches mountainous terrain like that of northern Mexico and the American Southwest, it is pushed up and drops its moisture, often in sudden, intense thunderstorms.

There are many places near the coast that don’t have monsoons — Los Angeles, for instance. One important factor is topography: Research suggests that a major reason why the South Asian monsoon is so powerful and consistent is the presence of the Himalayas, which act as a wall that prevents air from the dry Tibetan plateau from making it to the Indian subcontinent.

Another major consideration is something called the “subtropical ridge,” which is a series of persistent high-pressure systems that all occur around 30 degrees north (and south) of the equator.

The reason that the North American monsoon does not reach coastal California is the presence of the North Pacific High, which is a part of the subtropical ridge that typically sits northeast of Hawaii. The North Pacific High strengthens and expands during the summer, creating the hot, dry conditions that are typical for Los Angeles and crowding out the monsoon. In winter, however, the North Pacific High tends to weaken and shift south, allowing atmospheric rivers to reach the state.

For the Southwest, the North American monsoon can be both a blessing and a curse.

It brings much-needed rain to the region, but that precipitation typically falls in torrential downpours that the dry, hard-packed soil is unable to absorb. This leads to dangerous flash floods that can destroy roads and buildings and potentially claim the lives of those caught in their path. The rain and cool conditions delivered by the monsoon can be useful in extinguishing wildfires, but the lightning from the storms is also a major trigger for wildfires in the region.

As with many weather phenomena, climate change is expected to have some effect on monsoon rainfall, but the magnitude and direction of that effect depends on specific local factors.

For some parts of the globe, like South and East Asia, monsoons are predicted to become more intense because of climate change. It is thought that changes in aerosol pollution as China and India (hopefully) shift away from coal power will play a very important role.

In the southern hemisphere, models suggest a possible small increase in summer monsoon rainfall. Of the major monsoon systems, only the North American monsoon is expected to have substantial decreases in total precipitation, with the most likely outcome being a 1%-6% reduction in summer rainfall. The reasons for this predicted decrease are not entirely understood but warming sea surface temperatures off the coast of Baja California have been suggested as a possible explanation.

If the North American monsoon does weaken over the coming decades, it will put further stress on the dwindling Colorado River, which has a watershed that includes almost all of Arizona and large swathes of Colorado and Utah. Perhaps more significantly, it will represent a serious threat to ecosystems that are already fragile because of rising temperatures and outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle.

The future of monsoon systems across the globe is not certain or easily predictable but given the potential perils in either direction — more intense flooding or deepening drought — it is important that we prepare for both scenarios and act quickly to limit these changes including by rapidly cutting emissions.

Ned Kleiner is a scientist and catastrophe modeler at Verisk. He has a doctorate in atmospheric science from Harvard.

A California bill that would have imposed regulations on kratom products was quietly shelved Thursday following a clash between advocacy groups focused on the burgeoning industry.

Kratom products are derived from the leaves of a tree that grows in Southeast Asia, where kratom has long been chewed and brewed into teas. As it has gained more popularity around the globe, greenish capsules, powders and extracts have popped up in vape and smoke shops in California.

Scientists are still learning about its complex effects, which can range from stimulant to sedative and stem from chemical compounds called alkaloids. The Food and Drug Administration has warned against using kratom for medical treatment and says it is “not appropriate for use as a dietary supplement.” Among the reported side effects have been seizures, vomiting and heart problems. Kratom has also been involved in a small share of overdose deaths, although most also involved other drugs, analyses have found.

A bill proposed by Assemblymember Matt Haney (D-San Francisco) would have required kratom products to be registered with the state, and to carry mandated labeling and warnings. It also would have prohibited sales to anyone under 21.

In addition, Assembly Bill 2365 would have banned products containing synthesized versions of kratom alkaloids. And it would have prohibited ones in which a specific chemical makes up more than 1% of its alkaloid content.

That chemical is 7-hydroxymitragynine, also known as 7-OH. It is typically found in the dried kratom leaf in very low concentrations, although a more common alkaloid in the plant — mitragynine — breaks down in the human body to create 7-OH as well.

Scientists have raised concerns about its effects: One study in the Journal of Medical Toxicology said 7-OH “is likely to be a major contributing factor to the addictive potential of kratom.” Another article published in Addiction Biology said 7-OH “should be considered a kratom constituent with high abuse potential.”

Kirsten Smith, an assistant professor in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Johns Hopkins University, said that because 7-OH appears naturally at very low levels in the kratom leaf, products with much higher levels of 7-OH are “easily identifiable as being manipulated and man-made.”

“It’s no longer the botanical as it’s been used in nature,” Smith said, adding that she didn’t consider synthesized 7-OH products to be kratom at all.

Kratom advocacy groups were split over the California bill. It was backed by the Global Kratom Coalition, whose executive director, Matthew Lowe, argued kratom products should have an alkaloid content similar to the natural plant that has long been used. The coalition was joined by law enforcement groups in backing AB 2365.

In the opposing camp were the American Kratom Assn., which has fought bans on kratom products throughout the country and backed other state regulations, and Holistic Alternative Recovery Trust, which wants 7-OH to be explored as an alternative to opioids for pain relief.

The American Kratom Assn. contended that the regulatory structure needed for the California bill would be so costly that few companies would be able to pay the needed fees. State officials estimated it could cost over $4 million annually to regulate kratom under the bill.

AB 2365 “is promoted by one company who will benefit from the onerous provisions … to the detriment of small and mid-sized kratom manufacturers,” said Mac Haddow, its senior fellow on public policy. He argued Botanic Tonics — a beverage company listed as a supporter of the Global Kratom Coalition — had enough market presence that for them, the registration fees would not be prohibitive.

The Holistic Alternative Recovery Trust argued for a higher limit on 7-OH, saying that California should avoid being so restrictive that the products would lose therapeutic benefits.

Lowe said that the level they were pushing for — 2% of dry weight rather than 1% of the alkaloid content — was vastly higher and would threaten consumer safety. As for concerns about fees, Lowe said the focus should be “how the provisions in the bill inform and protect consumers, rather than the cost on the industry.”

“The Global Kratom Coalition is not looking to support any single vendor. We’re looking to ensure that kratom products are safe,” Lowe said. He added that the bill envisioned a tiered system for fees related to annual sales in California, which would allow lower fees for smaller companies.

AB 2365 stalled in the state Senate’s appropriations committee as lawmakers culled hundreds of bills on the so-called suspense file. The process allows legislative leaders to quietly halt bills that would have significant costs or pose challenging political dynamics, averting the need for many lawmakers to have to weigh in.

Haney said that “Californians are not safer by leaving kratom entirely unregulated in our state,” calling it “a total free-for-all.” The lawmaker said he plans to reach out to the California Department of Public Health to weigh next steps and hopes the FDA will take action, rather than leaving the matter to states.

“I have no interest in benefiting any particular player” in the kratom industry, but chose to err on the side of less potency, to the chagrin of “people who want to sell much stronger versions of kratom,” Haney said. He said if discussions continue, he would like the Department of Public Health to help define what is “synthetic.”

The public health department, which would have handled product registration under the bill, said it has not conducted any scientific assessment of the safety risks of 7-OH in kratom products.

The Global Kratom Coalition spent $15,000 on lobbying related to the bill, according to financial disclosures available as of Thursday. It also contributed $5,500 in political donations to Haney, who introduced AB 2365, and $36,400 to Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, who supported it, according to state records.

Botanic Tonics, in turn, reported spending $90,000 on lobbying during this legislative session, including $30,000 during a period it was advocating on AB 2365. The company said other expenses were for “advice and counsel on the regulatory and legislative landscape specific to California.”

Holistic Alternative Recovery Trust reported spending $18,000 on lobbying over AB 2365. The American Kratom Assn. said it had not hired a lobbyist until the end of July and would report its spending after that point.

And the bill also drew interest from the kratom company MIT45 Inc., which reported spending $60,000 on lobbying. A company leader did not immediately clarify its position on the bill.

The National Institute on Drug Abuse says that “much is still unknown about chemical compounds related to kratom,” its health impacts and possible therapeutic uses, complicating discussions among regulators in California and across the country.

The Global Kratom Coalition has funded research on kratom at the University of Florida college of pharmacy, where researcher Christopher McCurdy and others have raised concerns about “semi-synthetic, isolated” alkaloids. Lowe said his group provided $500,000 total this year. Advancing research on kratom is part of its mission and “ensures that regulations are led by the evolving science,” he said.

McCurdy said the coalition and “many independent kratom vendors” had helped fund research there, but “no one that donates has any influence on what studies we conduct” and “they all understand that we will publish our findings without their review or consent.”

Smith said she had done consulting for the Global Kratom Coalition in the past, but that her research was funded by NIDA, not the coalition or any other groups connected to the kratom industry.

“We are in such early, early days of research” on kratom, she said.

Remember when Elmo went viral in January by asking folks on the Internet how they were doing and briefly became the unofficial therapist of X?

“The world is burning, Elmo,” an X user who goes by Not the Bee told the usually upbeat “Sesame Street” character. “No amount of tickles can fix this.”

“This world is full of pain, anger, violence, disease, power grabbing despots and poverty,” a user with the handle LiveLifeLikeSomeoneLeftTheGateOpen added in a long post. “The chasm is widening as HG Wells put it, between the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots.’”

And those were just two of the 20,000-plus replies.

Christina Vittas, Elmo’s social media manager, was bowled over by the unexpected outpouring and told The Times she was thankful that the Muppet’s simple question “opened up conversations about the serious mental health crisis in our country.”

Six months later, Elmo’s creators at Sesame Workshop have collaborated with the Harris Poll to conduct a more thorough check-in on the state of Americans’ mental health. They conducted 2,012 online interviews in May on an array of topics with a nationally representative sample of Americans ages 16 and up.

The resulting State of Well-Being Report was released this week. Among the findings:

• 27% of respondents said their mental or emotional health, or that of someone in their family, was negatively impacting their well-being. That was essentially tied with the 28% who were negatively impacted by a problem with physical health. The only issue taking a greater toll on survey participants was economic security and personal finances, a worry reported by 41%.

• Mental and emotional health were a particular burden on teens, with 54% of the 16- and 17-year-olds who took the survey saying the psychological issues had a negative impact on their overall well-being. So did 32% of parents and 41% of people who identified as LGBTQ+.

• When asked about their top concerns for their future well-being, 90% cited their and their family’s mental and emotional health as either somewhat or very important. For the sake of comparison, 89% said the same about physical health, economic security and personal finances, and having “a safe place to call home.”

• 77% of people told pollsters that to improve the well-being of future generations, the U.S. should prioritize investments in emotional and mental health. That was only slightly less than the 80% who called for more investments in economic security and slightly more than the 76% who said the country should prioritize high-quality education and learning opportunities.

• 44% of all respondents said their families were “still experiencing negative effects from the COVID19 pandemic.” That includes 57% of Black Americans and 56% of Latino Americans who took the survey. It also includes 63% of respondents who are members of Gen Z (between the ages of 18 and 27) and 57% of those who are millennials (between the ages of 28 and 43).

• When presented with a list of adjectives to describe the average American adult, only 37% selected “kind,” 35% selected “compassionate” and 33% selected “empathetic.” However, 56% said this hypothetical adult was “anxious” and 44% said they were “difficult.”

• The survey found overwhelming support for the notion that kindness is essential to the well-being of society. Fully 91% of people agreed that “kindness fosters stronger bonds between people,” making them more empathetic and supportive.

• 82% of respondents said their own mental well-being would improve if kindness were more common, and 89% said a kinder society would be better for children.

• 93% of those surveyed said they had committed at least one act of kindness in the past three months. More specifically, 57% said they had helped a friend or family member in need, 57% said they listened to someone else in a nonjudgmental way, 39% gave money to charity, 35% helped a stranger and 22% volunteered their time in support of a cause, among other activities.

• Despite this outpouring of kindness, most people said they didn’t see much of the same in others, with 55% of respondents agreeing that “being kind is not a priority to most people.” In addition, 64% agreed that “most people don’t go out of their way to help others.”

• 73% of Americans said they wished they had learned more about how to manage their emotions when they were children. So did 84% of those who are parents.

• 67% of Americans also wish their parents had been more transparent about their own struggles with mental health. That was particularly true for younger Americans, with 77% of teens, 77% of Gen Zers and 78% of millennials sharing that sentiment.

Sesame Workshop described the report as “a first-of-its-kind index” and said it will continue to check in with Americans “to keep a pulse on the well-being of Americans and their families.”