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Fires, Then Floods: Risk of Deadly Climate Combination Rises

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Fires, Then Floods: Risk of Deadly Climate Combination Rises

International warming is tremendously rising the chance that excessive wildfires within the American West are adopted by heavy rainfall, a brand new research has discovered, highlighting the necessity for higher preparations for hazards, like mudslides and flash floods, that may trigger devastation lengthy after the flames from extreme blazes are out.

Fires ravage forests, wreck properties and kill individuals and animals, however additionally they destroy vegetation and make soil much less permeable. That makes it simpler for even quick bursts of heavy rain to trigger flooding and runaway flows of mud and particles. Rains after wildfires can even contaminate ingesting water by choking rivers and basins with sediment from eroded hillsides.

Scientists imagine that human-caused local weather change is bringing about extra of the recent and dry situations that result in catastrophic fires. Hotter air can maintain extra moisture, which suggests rainfall is rising extra intense, too.

Till now, although, local weather researchers learning the Western United States hadn’t tried pinning down how typically these two reverse extremes may happen in the identical place inside a brief span of time, mentioned Danielle Touma, a postdoctoral fellow on the Nationwide Heart for Atmospheric Analysis in Boulder, Colo., and lead creator of the brand new research.

Three months to half a 12 months after a fireplace, earlier than the soil and vegetation have had time to get better, “are the instances when these occasions may be actually dangerous,” Dr. Touma mentioned. The research was printed on Friday within the journal Science Advances.

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Residents of Western states have seen loads of these one-two punch climate disasters, and their harrowing penalties, lately.

The brand new research makes use of pc fashions to undertaking how the frequency of such mixed occasions throughout the West may change underneath a high-global-warming situation for the approaching many years.

Local weather scientists imagine it’s much less probably than it as soon as was that greenhouse-gas emissions from human exercise will result in such excessive ranges of warming on their very own. The authors of the research mentioned that they anticipated smaller however nonetheless important will increase in rainfall following wildfires underneath less-pessimistic pathways for international warming.

The research finds that by the tip of the century, greater than half of days with extraordinarily excessive wildfire danger in elements of the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, Nevada and Utah might be adopted by extreme downpours inside a 12 months. The fraction is smaller for California and Colorado, the research discovered, although it’s nonetheless significantly greater than the typical between 1980 and 2005. And the rise is critical each inside six months of extreme hearth days and inside a 12 months.

Western Colorado and a lot of the Pacific Northwest are additionally projected to see a bounce within the probability of heavy rains inside three months of harmful hearth situations. In California, the wildfire season and the wet season are typically extra separate throughout the 12 months.

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“Even by midcentury, some locations are seeing a doubling or tripling” of danger, mentioned Daniel L. Swain, a local weather scientist on the College of California, Los Angeles, and one other creator of the research. “That’s not that far sooner or later, and that’s not that rather more extra warming than we’ve already seen.”

Dr. Swain mentioned he and his colleagues have been struck that their pc fashions confirmed such a constant enhance in danger throughout the West, though the area’s local weather is so various. California has dry summers and moist winters, whereas in Colorado, each flooding and wildfire peak throughout the heat season.

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It doesn’t take a lot rain to set off a particles circulate on a not too long ago burned slope, mentioned Jason W. Kean, a hydrologist with the USA Geological Survey in Golden, Colo., who was not concerned within the research. In some areas, as little as a fraction of an inch falling in quarter-hour is perhaps sufficient, he mentioned.

However as extra wildfires happen in locations the place they hadn’t been a giant downside earlier than, scientists are working to know how the thresholds may differ in these wetter climates, Dr. Kean mentioned. “It’s a scramble for us to remain forward of the sport,” he mentioned.

Dr. Touma performed a lot of the evaluation for the brand new research when she was a postdoctoral researcher on the College of California, Santa Barbara, not removed from Montecito, which was devastated by post-fire mudslides in 2018. The authorities there had urged residents of sure areas to evacuate, however many selected to not.

“There was a number of evacuation fatigue from the fireplace only one month earlier than,” Dr. Touma mentioned.

Residents of the West are typically very acutely aware of the dangers of flooding and dust flows in burn zones, mentioned Samantha Stevenson, an environmental scientist on the College of California, Santa Barbara, who additionally labored on the research. However “the diploma to which they’re rising because of local weather change, and the rapidity of that enhance, is one thing that we must always possibly attempt to be extra conscious of,” she mentioned.

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Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County

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Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County

A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.

The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.

The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.

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The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.

After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.

As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.

Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.

The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.

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Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.

Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.

The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.

Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.

While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.

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Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.

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Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?

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Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?

It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.

“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”

Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.

Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.

The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.

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That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.

In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.

“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”

Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).

The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.

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For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.

Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.

“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.

Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.

There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.

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“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.

Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.

“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”

That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.

Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.

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“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”

Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.

“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”

On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”

“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.

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Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.

The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.

“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.

“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”

That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

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“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.

Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.

“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”

Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.

“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.

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The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”

“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”

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Video: SpaceX Unable to Recover Booster Stage During Sixth Test Flight

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Video: SpaceX Unable to Recover Booster Stage During Sixth Test Flight

President-elect Donald Trump joined Elon Musk in Texas and watched the launch from a nearby location on Tuesday. While the Starship’s giant booster stage was unable to repeat a “chopsticks” landing, the vehicle’s upper stage successfully splashed down in the Indian Ocean.

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