Science
Earth’s 10 Hottest Years on Record Are the Last 10
With the addition of 2024, yet another record-hot year, the past 10 years have been the 10 hottest in nearly 200 years of record-keeping, the World Meteorological Organization reports.
“That’s never happened before,” said Chris Hewitt, the director of the W.M.O.’s climate services division. It marks the first time since record keeping began that all of the 10 hottest years have fallen within the most recent decade.
2024 was the single warmest year on record, surpassing even 2023’s wide lead over other recent years. The planet’s surface was approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius warmer than its average during a reference period that approximates the preindustrial era, from 1850-1900.
The annual report from the W.M.O., a United Nations agency, includes input from dozens of experts and institutions from around the world and sheds further light on the record-breaking heat of 2024 and places it in the context of Earth’s long-term warming from climate change.
The extra energy in the atmosphere and the oceans helped fuel climate-related disasters around the globe. Extreme weather events like drought, storms and wildfires displaced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, the report says.
Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases released from fossil fuel combustion continue to rise. In 2024, the concentration of carbon dioxide hit amounts unseen in at least two million years, according to the report.
Concentrations of two other important greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide, reached levels unseen in at least 800,000 years. Homo sapiens, or modern humans, emerged around 300,000 years ago, so our species has never before experienced an atmosphere so laden with planet-warming greenhouse gases.
When countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, they agreed to try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
“While a single year above 1.5 degrees C of warming does not indicate that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach, it is a wake-up call that we are increasing the risks to our lives, economies and to the planet,” Celeste Saulo, the secretary general of the W.M.O., said in a statement.
The new report estimates that long-term warming has reached 1.25 to 1.41 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, although the margins of error for some estimates extend beyond 1.5 degrees. The report authors estimate that last year, El Niño and other factors contributed an additional 0.1 or 0.2 of a degree of temporary warming.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that tends to slightly raise the overall surface temperature of the planet. Record warmth, however, continued into 2025, even through El Niño’s transition into the opposing pattern, La Niña.
“It’s been really quite extraordinary to see that warmth continue for so long,” John Kennedy, the scientific coordinator and lead author of the report, said during a call with reporters.
This warmth is especially apparent in the oceans, where key indicators of climate change are now accelerating.
The oceans have so far absorbed around 90 percent of the additional heat trapped inside Earth’s atmosphere by greenhouse gases. The oceans’ heat content — a way to measure this warmth throughout different depths — also reached a record high last year. Over the past two decades, from 2005 to 2024, the oceans warmed more than twice as fast as they did from 1960 to 2005, according to the report.
Increased ocean temperatures have had devastating consequences for marine life. By April 2024, warm-water corals had been bleached in every ocean basin where they grow.
Global average sea-level rise also reached a record high in 2024, according to the report. The speed at which the seas are rising has also more than doubled in recent years: 4.7 millimeters per year in the past decade, from 2015 to 2024, compared with 2.1 millimeters per year from 1993 to 2002.
The World Meteorological Organization’s work depends on international cooperation among its 101 member countries, including the United States.
“If you look at how weather has progressed since the initiation of the W.M.O. in 1950, you can now see that you can have the forecast on your smartphone,” said Omar Baddour, the W.M.O.’s chief of climate monitoring. “You cannot believe how much collaboration is behind this.”
Data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which recently lost hundreds of staff positions as part of the rapid, large-scale cuts to the federal bureaucracy the Trump administration undertook beginning earlier this year, are included in the W.M.O.’s new report.
Science
Rudolph Marcus, Caltech chemist who won Nobel Prize, dies at 102
Rudolph Marcus was perplexed. It was 1955 and Marcus, a 31-year-old associate professor of chemistry still in the early stages of his career, had found an elementary mistake in the work of an esteemed scientist.
“Something doesn’t add up,” Marcus thought..
Marcus had discovered a calculation that violated the law of conservation of energy, a bedrock scientific principle, tucked inside a new theory on electron behavior. This frustrated Marcus because he otherwise liked the innovative theory that had been proposed by Willard Libby, a physicist who had helped develop the atom bomb.
Marcus set out to fix the problem, but ended up doing much more. Within a month, he had developed an elegant formula that would upend scientific understanding of how molecules use energy and eventually win him the Nobel Prize.
“When I got the result it was the most exciting moment that I’d ever had in science in my life,” he recalled in a Caltech oral history interview in 1993. “There was just such exhilaration. … It came out in such a simple form. It really was a thing of beauty — to me, anyway.”
Marcus, a Caltech professor for nearly half a century and a longtime Pasadena resident, died peacefully Thursday at home, Caltech and his family said. He was 102.
“Rudy Marcus’s career exemplified the beauty and reach of fundamental science, and he will be deeply missed,” said Caltech President Ray Jayawardhana. “He was a visionary scientist who transformed our understanding of chemical reactions at their most elementary level, [and] laid the conceptual foundations that continue to shape advances in clean energy, catalysis, electronics, and beyond.”
Marcus, who would have turned 103 on Tuesday, was at work on three separate research papers at the time of his death, his family said.
Marcus first published his conclusions on “electron transfer reactions” in 1956 and continued to refine them over the next nine years. His ideas were controversial until they were confirmed by experiments over three decades. In 1992, he was awarded the Nobel for chemistry.
The Marcus Theory, as it came to be known, provides a mathematical way to determine how fast or slow, or in what direction, electrons jump between molecules without breaking chemical bonds. It expanded scientists’ knowledge of a wide spectrum of processes, such as how plants gain energy from sunlight, how animals use oxygen and food as fuel, and how batteries use chemicals to create electricity.
He was also known for his part in what was called the RRKM theory, named for the four scientists, including Marcus, who developed it. It describes how energy is released from the chemical reactions of molecules in the gas phase.
“The RRKM theory is one of the outstanding theories of chemical physics,” said Harold Johnson, a physics professor at UC Berkeley, in 1985. “Marcus took a good theory developed in the 1920s and ‘30s, brought it up to date in 1951 and made it complete. All kinds of people in chemistry use it.”
Rudolph Arthur Marcus was born July 21, 1923, in Montreal, the only child of American-born Myer Marcus and English-born Esther Marcus, both of Jewish Lithuanian descent. His father had various jobs, selling picture frames at one point, later managing a fruit store. When he was 3, his family moved to Detroit, then returned to Montreal when he was 9.
While his father had little interest in education, Marcus found academic inspiration in two uncles who were doctors, a great-uncle who could speak nine languages and, mostly, his mother.
“She liked school so much that she went to the last grade twice, because she couldn’t afford to go on,” Marcus recalled in a 1991 interview with the Chemical Heritage Foundation.
In high school, he developed a love for mathematics: “If the teacher said do every alternate problem, I’d do every problem, just simply for the fun of doing it.”
At Montreal’s McGill University, he majored in chemistry, partly because an advisor said that as a Jew he would have a harder time finding a job in mathematics. He received his bachelor’s degree in 1943 and a PhD in 1946, both in chemistry and both from McGill.
Marcus did his first postdoctoral research in Ottawa, but in 1949 he jumped at the chance to study theory — instead of hands-on, experimental chemistry — at the University of North Carolina. Within his first few days there, Marcus met Laura Hearne, a graduate student in sociology, and they married six months later. They would have three sons together and remain married until her death in 2003.
In 1951, Marcus landed at the Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn as an assistant professor. It was there, four years later, that he had his Nobel-winning insight.
“We’ve heard of ‘eureka’ and, yes, there was this eureka moment,” he recalled. “I’ve never solved a problem so quickly, before or after.”
In 1958, he was naturalized as an American citizen.
In 1964, Marcus left Brooklyn’s Polytechnic to be a chemistry professor at the University of Illinois. He spent 14 years there — even turning down a professorship at England’s Oxford University because he didn’t want to uproot his family — before coming to Pasadena and the California Institute of Technology in 1978. Caltech was his home for the rest of his career, though he stepped down from teaching at the age of 95.
“Enough is enough,” he joked in 2023. “They should really have somebody who really knows something.”
The Nobel and its $1.2-million prize did little to change Marcus. A 1994 Los Angeles Times profile noted that he continued to walk to work most days from his home just off the Pasadena campus, and still drove a 16-year-old car. He said proudly that when Laura met Sweden’s King Carl Gustav XVI, she was wearing a homemade dress.
Around the Caltech campus, Marcus remained so unaffected and so focused on his research that one colleague quipped that he “must have spent his million dollars on a new sweater.”
Said Marcus: “It’s best if one doesn’t think too much about prizes and things. That puts the focus in the wrong place, which should be on your work … on a particular problem and how you should solve it.”
Marcus is survived by sons Alan, Kenneth and Raymond; four grandchildren; one great-grandson; and his long-term colleague and companion Maria-Elizabeth Michel-Beyerle.
In 2023 Caltech held a symposium in honor of Marcus’ 100th birthday. As family, friends and colleagues dropped by his table to offer congratulations, he confessed that he was eager to get back to the office. He had a new experiment he was excited to work on.
“The main thing is finding something that you enjoy doing, that preferably doesn’t harm others, and that tests whatever aptitude one has, that tests one’s ingenuity,” he said of his approach to life. “It’s almost like a kind of a game. You against nature.”
Science
The Latest Texas Floods Tested Warning Systems. This Time, They Passed.
It was after 3 a.m. Thursday when Joe Swann got word from someone at a bar perched on the banks of the Guadalupe River in Ingram, Texas, that rising floodwaters had triggered a new flood warning device. The alarm was flashing a bright light and blaring orders.
“Move away from the tower,” the device warned, alerting a nearby campground. By the time Mr. Swann arrived to see it for himself, campers were already leaving for higher ground.
Mr. Swann and his company, River Sentry, had installed 100 of the eight-foot-tall devices along the Guadalupe in the year since a deluge surged down the river and shocked the Hill Country region last July 4, killing dozens of people, many of them children at summer camp. Government money and philanthropic investment have also funded other flood siren systems that kicked in when Hill Country flooded again this week, devastating many of the same areas as last summer’s tragedy.
This time, the systems worked, though they could not prevent at least two deaths. In Kerrville, where floods wrecked areas still in the process of recovering from last summer’s deluge, Mayor Joe Herring Jr. said all residents were accounted for as of Thursday night.
“We had better warning,” he said in a phone interview.
“I’m thankful to the state of Texas and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority for working to install an automated, data-driven warning system,” he added. “And that helped save lives today.”
But the latest disaster also underscored a need to continue investing in improved forecasting and warning systems, said Phil Bedient, a professor at Rice University working on such a project.
“It’s wonderful to have that warning going off,” Dr. Bedient said of the new siren systems. “You’ve got to have more than that to have a bona fide early flood warning system.”
Texas made significant investments in flood warning systems after the tragedy last July. The state legislature and Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, approved $50 million for warning systems, rain and river gauges and other flood infrastructure.
Much of that was in place before this week’s storms, including sirens that blared across Kerr County, home to the worst of the flooding last summer.
Other work is still ongoing.
The Upper Guadalupe River Authority, a group responsible for guarding the health of the river, installed new sirens in May. It plans to install more river and rain gauges and develop software to help predict flooding, according to its website. An authority official could not be reached for comment.
Dr. Bedient and colleagues at the University of Texas, Arlington, are using $4 million from the state to develop a system to monitor rainfall on radar and use computer models to compare that data with a range of flooding scenarios. The goal is to increase the lead time for warning systems like flood sirens, he said.
“They will then know to turn sirens on even before the flood gets there,” Dr. Bedient said.
Researchers at Texas Tech University are using another $24 million in state funds to increase radar coverage and capability for meteorological analysis across Hill Country and other parts of rural Texas where flood risks are high but forecasting can be spotty.
River Sentry installed devices, including the ones that alerted campers in Ingram, using private fund-raising led by the owners of Camp Mystic, where 28 children and counselors died in last July’s floods. Each device cost $8,000, said Ian Cunningham, the company’s CEO.
The company, based in the Austin area, plans to add more capabilities, including connecting the network of devices wirelessly and adding small, portable sensors that people can keep with them to receive flood alerts and call for help when needed, Mr. Cunningham said.
Mr. Cunningham also works as an American Airlines pilot, but because he has two daughters who attend summer camp, he used his background in the U.S. Navy to lead River Sentry’s quick work to build the flood warning system.
“We can’t have what occurred last summer occur here again,” Mr. Cunningham said.
Pooja Salhotra contributed reporting.
Science
After wildfires destroyed 95% of this California tribe’s forests, members uncovered 1,200 ancestral sites
CONCOW, Calif. — Until recently, when members of the Konkow Valley Band of Maidu pulled up a map of their ancestral land in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, only about two dozen of their historic sites appeared.
Disease, violence and forced labor had separated California tribe members from their history. Without routine Indigenous fire to clear out the foothills, the landscape — much of it now managed by the U.S. Forest Service — grew dense with conifers, obscuring the signs of their enduring presence.
As a result, archaeologists’ picture of the tribe’s past was spare. No more than 500 people. Going back about 3,000 years — a fraction of the time other tribes are known to have lived in the state.
Then the forests burned.
In less than a decade, wildfires destroyed forests across 95% of the tribe’s homelands. The Forest Service turned to the tribe for help healing the land. As members walked the wide-open moonscape, they found evidence of their vibrant history everywhere.
Now just a few years later, their map shows more than 1,200 sites.
Each one is itself a collection: Arrowheads. Rock art. Milling stations where ancestors used cups carved into rock faces to grind salmon, manzanita berries and bay leaves. The circular pits of winter houses, where they sat around a fire under a cedar roof.
A milling station found by the Konkow Valley Band of Maidu in their tribal homelands.
(Sara Nevis / For The Times)
Now, as Tribal Chairperson Matthew Williford Sr. walks these lands, he imagines a much more vibrant past than the one traditionally portrayed by archeologists.
For millennia, upward of 5,000 ancestors living in the basin, many trekking to higher elevation to gather food in the summertime. Husbands venting about domestic life as they shaped their arrowheads on one side of the hill; wives doing the same at the milling stations on the other side.
Matthew Williford Sr., Konkow Valley Band of Maidu tribal chairperson, stands in Plumas National Forest.
(Sara Nevis / For The Times)
Now, to better understand the tribe’s past, the Konkow Valley Band of Maidu is teaming up with a new generation of archaeologists. On a recent day in the Plumas National Forest, Matthew O’Brien, an anthropology professor at Chico State University, worked alongside a handful of students and tribal members.
The team excavated a house pit, carefully carrying artifacts to a rudimentary lab of folding tables and camp chairs, where students weighed them, measured them with calipers and assessed their chemical makeup with an expensive tool called an XRF analyzer. People offered explanations for how their ancestors used the artifacts.
For O’Brien, this form of archeology is worlds apart from the practice of the past. Tribal people are not voiceless historical subjects to study but active collaborators helping to understand and protect the past.
In the 20th century, “the government put archaeologists in charge of stewarding the past. In places like the United States, that leads to some serious ethical issues because what we’re in charge of protecting is not our own culture,” O’Brien said. Now, “it’s our job to help repair that relationship.”
It’s an irony lost on no one that the same policies that disconnected tribal members from their history also enabled the fires that then allowed them to rediscover it.
Even before California gained statehood, Gold Rush lawmakers banned tribes from lighting fire to rejuvenate and thin out forests. That same law also allowed white Californians to force Indigenous adults and children into labor, which separated “at least a generation of children and adults from their families, languages, and cultures,” the state later acknowledged.
Meanwhile, the federal government refused to ratify treaties to establish reservations for tribes whose homelands lay within newly created California, leaving tribes like the Konkow Valley Band of Maidu landless. By the early 1900s, Forest Service officials were working aggressively to squash lingering sentiment among white ranchers that intentional fire was productive. Any fire that started on Forest Service land, the policy became, ought to be contained by 10 a.m. the next morning.
The Konkow Valley Band of Maidu did what they could. Tribal members drove around in a beat-up Buick flinging matches out the window. Eventually those efforts landed one elder in jail for arson.
The open forests of oak, dogwood and a few pines, once routinely thinned and maintained with low-intensity “good” fire, became thick with conifers, to the delight of the Forest Service. Now five to six times denser, the trees formed yet another barrier between the tribe and its history — yet a fragile one. When fire inevitably ignites within so much wood in such a tight space — through lightning or human error — it does not burn gently.
A statue stands in a lot charred by the Camp fire, which tore through Paradise, Calif., in 2018.
(Noah Berger / Associated Press)
In 2018, the Camp fire ripped through Butte County, burning 150,000 acres and killing 85 people. Three years later, the Dixie fire ravaged nearly a million acres. In its wake, a world covered in ash. Waterways turned into black sludge. A foul smell of sulfur lingered in the air.
“It was sickening,” Williford said. “Just disgusting.”
Material to be burned is piled in an area of Plumas National Forest that the Konkow Valley Band of Maidu helps manage.
(Sara Nevis / For The Times)
“The land used to repay us, or acknowledge us, by giving us what we needed,” Williford said, standing on a dirt road overlooking the valley. “There were Native generations that were disconnected, unplugged. … We feel lucky that it’s our opportunity to reconnect, to let the land know that ‘Hey! We’re still here!’”
Restoration work with the Forest Service — surveying sites, planting trees and bringing back good fire — continues to unearth long-lost artifacts. And the most exciting data from O’Brien’s team is yet to come:
The team plans to carbon-date a piece of charcoal from the house pit it excavated to see just how long ago tribal ancestors sat around its hearth.
It was an ancient fire, not the recent ones, that preserved some dead wood, and with it, a lasting elemental fingerprint saying, “We were here.”
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