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A new coronavirus variant may be behind California's COVID rise

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A new coronavirus variant may be behind California's COVID rise

Coronavirus transmission is once again spiking in California entering the winter holiday season — and a new subvariant may be partly to blame, officials say.

This latest subvariant, JN.1, is now estimated to account for roughly 44% of COVID-19 cases nationally, according to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That share is twice as high as any other identified subvariant, and a startling rise from the prior estimate of 21% for the two-week period that ended Dec. 9.

“We’re also seeing an increasing share of infections caused by JN.1 in travelers, wastewater and most regions around the globe,” the CDC said in a statement. “JN.1’s continued growth suggests that the variant is either more transmissible or better at evading our immune systems than other circulating variants.”

The World Health Organization this week classified JN.1 as a “variant of interest,” meaning it has potentially concerning characteristics — such as an ability to more easily infect individuals or avoid the protection afforded by vaccines and therapeutics.

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Current vaccines, anti-COVID drugs and tests continue to work well against JN.1, the CDC said.

JN.1 is an offshoot of another Omicron subvariant, BA.2.86, which was unofficially nicknamed Pirola.

Pirola was already deemed worrisome because of its unusually high number of mutations, which might empower it to more easily infect those who haven’t received a recent COVID-19 vaccination. JN.1 has an additional mutation.

Experts say all those mutations mean it’s likely that people who have been relying on older vaccinations received more than a year ago, or a previous infection earlier this year, may not be protected enough to avoid a new run-in with the coronavirus this winter.

“It is possible that at least part of the local increase in transmission is driven by new COVID-19 strains gaining dominance in Los Angeles County, including JN.1,” the county Department of Public Health said in a statement.

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Doctors say the rise of JN.1 is another reason why people — especially those who are older — should get the latest COVID-19 vaccination that became available in September.

Coronavirus transmission and COVID-19 hospitalizations, though undoubtedly on the rise, aren’t at the levels seen at this same time last year.

But the increase has been sharp. For the week ending Dec. 16, there were 2,924 new coronavirus-positive hospital admissions in California, up nearly 50% from a month earlier.

And it’s not just COVID-19. Clinics in Southern California report being busy with other viral illnesses, too — namely flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

“Definitely, we’re seeing more people that are coming through the door, especially the younger and the older,” said Dr. Daisy Dodd, an infectious disease specialist with Kaiser Permanente Orange County. People with underlying medical issues, such as diabetes and asthma, she added, are “much more symptomatic.”

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In L.A. County, about 18% of specimens tested at sentinel labs are coming back positive for flu, as are 12% of specimens tested for RSV and 11% tested for the coronavirus. The test positive rates of flu and the coronavirus are continuing to grow, while the rate for RSV has plateaued at a high level.

Coronavirus levels recorded in L.A. County’s wastewater have doubled over the last month. For the week ending Dec. 9, the most recent data available, viral levels in sewage were at 39% of the peak seen last winter, the most recent major spike for the region.

But the increase in infections, to this point, has not translated into a surge of people needing intensive care, Dodd said.

At UC San Francisco, there are now 27 coronavirus-positive patients who are currently hospitalized, up from around 20 a few weeks ago. Earlier in November, that census was in the 10s, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist there.

“That is probably fueled by this new variant, JN.1,” Chin-Hong said. “It’s not that the variant causes people to be sicker. It’s just that if a lot of people are infected, a proportion of them will go to the hospital. And the more people that get infected, that number is higher.”

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Notably, COVID-19, flu and RSV seem to be all “colliding this year,” Chin-Hong said. “Last year, RSV would have gone down by now.”

Other factors in the spread of COVID-19, which have been seen consistently this time of year since the pandemic began, are holiday travel and gatherings indoors. And in the first holiday season since the end of COVID’s emergency phase, people are perhaps not being as cautious as they once were in terms of testing or staying at home if they are sick.

Dr. Rafael Montalvo — chair of the urgent care department for the Facey Medical Group, which oversees clinics in Burbank, Mission Hills and Valencia — said some patients who are sick have been fairly nonchalant about their illness and are eager to work or remain out and about. Healthcare workers, he said, take care to try to convince patients to stay home when they’re ill.

“They’re actually pretty surprised when they [found out they’ve] come down with COVID,” Montalvo said. Unlike before, when people might have known where they picked up the coronavirus, “now, they’re not aware of any direct exposures.”

For the week ending Dec. 16, there were an average of 601 coronavirus-positive people in L.A. County’s hospitals, up about 66% from the prior month.

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The burden COVID is posing on L.A. County’s health system is still relatively low, however. For the week that ended Dec. 9, L.A. County was reporting 6.5 new coronavirus-positive hospital admissions for every 100,000 residents, which is considered a low level as defined by the CDC.

Still, there may be some warning signs. There were 24 new COVID outbreaks in skilled nursing facilities for the week that ended Tuesday, which represents a medium level of concern in the county’s established rubric. And for the week that ended Sunday, 5% of emergency department encounters in L.A. County were classified as related to the coronavirus, also enough to warrant a medium level of concern.

In Santa Clara County, Northern California’s most populous, coronavirus levels in the San Jose area’s sewage are at 62% of last winter’s peak.

Hospital conditions are worse elsewhere. Fresno County, which like the wider Central Valley has been particularly hard hit throughout the pandemic, said its hospitals are reporting “severely impacted conditions … due to a historic number of admitted patients and people accessing the emergency department with non-urgent medical problems.”

Fresno County’s hospitals are operating at least 20% to 40% over capacity, and “are holding admitted patients in their emergency department for up to four days and are using conference rooms and non-patient areas to hold patients,” the local Department of Public Health said in a statement. Emergency room waiting times are now routinely exceeding 10 hours for some patients.

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“We need everyone’s help to slow down the number of people using the emergency room for non-emergency medical issues,” Dan Lynch, the county’s emergency medical services director, said in a statement.

The CDC recommends that virtually everyone age 6 months and older get a fresh COVID-19 and flu vaccination this winter. RSV vaccinations are also available for babies, those age 60 and older, and those who are pregnant.

Uptake of the most recent COVID-19 vaccination has been lackluster, however. Across California as of Nov. 30, 27% of seniors age 65 and up have received the latest shot. That rate is 21% in L.A. County, 25% in Orange County, and 27% in San Diego and Ventura counties; but less than 20% in the Inland Empire.

In the San Francisco Bay Area’s most populous counties, around 40% of seniors have received the latest COVID-19 vaccination.

As of Dec. 9, just 42% of adults nationwide had received a flu shot, 18% had received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, and 17% of those age 60 and up had received an RSV vaccine, according to reports published this week by the CDC. Notably, just one in three nursing home residents were up to date with their COVID-19 vaccinations.

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“Many adults who had not received the vaccines reported being open to vaccination,” one of the reports said.

The public health risk posed by JN.1 is similar to other subvariants in the sprawling Omicron family, the first version of which emerged a little more than two years ago. While these variants don’t pose the same threat as years prior, given a degree of immunity from past infections and immunizations, people who haven’t received a recent COVID-19 vaccination — particularly the new formula — are at greater risk.

“JN.1 [and other coronavirus variants] continue to cause disease and too many are falling ill, requiring hospitalizations or advanced clinical care, are dying, and developing long COVID,” Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, wrote in a social media post. Nationally, about 1,000 coronavirus-infected people a week are dying.

Health officials have also urged people and healthcare providers to utilize anti-COVID drugs like Paxlovid when possible.

Some have been reluctant to take or prescribe the drug after reading last year of a purported “post-Paxlovid rebound,” in which COVID-19 symptoms reappear after having seemingly resolved. However, doctors have also long noted that COVID rebound can happen without taking Paxlovid. And a new study published this week by the CDC reaffirmed that COVID rebound can happen regardless of whether one takes anti-COVID drugs like Paxlovid or molnupiravir.

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“Rebound should not deter providers from prescribing lifesaving antiviral treatments when indicated to prevent morbidity and mortality from COVID-19,” the report said.

CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen and others have urged people to take non-pharmaceutical precautions, such as wearing a mask in public settings, moving gatherings outdoors and improving ventilation, staying home when sick and avoiding people who are ill.

Other now-familiar measures include using hand sanitizer or regularly washing your hands, especially before eating, after sneezing or coughing, or while in public, the L.A. County Department of Public Health said.

“Consider talking with friends and family so they know to be cautious about gathering if they show signs of infection,” such as having a sore throat or a fever, the agency said. “Event hosts may want to consider asking their guests to test for COVID-19 before celebrations, especially if older or immunocompromised people will be present.”

California continues to require most insurers to reimburse covered people for the costs of up to eight at-home COVID tests per month, although people may need to obtain the tests through an “in-network” provider for the tests to remain free.

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People who test positive for the coronavirus should isolate for at least five days following onset of symptoms or their first positive test result, whichever came first. The day a person starts having symptoms or had their first positive test is considered Day Zero, and the earliest a patient can exit isolation is by the end of Day 5.

According to the L.A. County Department of Public Health, infected people can end isolation after Day 5 if they have been fever free for 24 hours without using fever-reducing medications, and don’t have any other symptoms, or their symptoms are mild and improving.

The agency strongly recommends people get a negative rapid test result before ending isolation between Days 6 and 10. Isolation can generally end after Day 10 without needing a negative test result, unless you still have a fever.

Infected people are encouraged to wear a mask around others for a full 10 day-period following onset of symptoms or their first positive test. But the agency says that people who meet the criteria to end isolation after Day 5 can stop wearing a mask, too, if they have two consecutive negative coronavirus test results taken at least one day apart.

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Commentary: My toothache led to a painful discovery: The dental care system is full of cavities as you age

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Commentary: My toothache led to a painful discovery: The dental care system is full of cavities as you age

I had a nagging toothache recently, and it led to an even more painful revelation.

If you X-rayed the state of oral health care in the United States, particularly for people 65 and older, the picture would be full of cavities.

“It’s probably worse than you can even imagine,” said Elizabeth Mertz, a UC San Francisco professor and Healthforce Center researcher who studies barriers to dental care for seniors.

Mertz once referred to the snaggletoothed, gap-filled oral health care system — which isn’t really a system at all — as “a mess.”

But let me get back to my toothache, while I reach for some painkiller. It had been bothering me for a couple of weeks, so I went to see my dentist, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst, having had two extractions in less than two years.

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Let’s make it a trifecta.

My dentist said a molar needed to be yanked because of a cellular breakdown called resorption, and a periodontist in his office recommended a bone graft and probably an implant. The whole process would take several months and cost roughly the price of a swell vacation.

I’m lucky to have a great dentist and dental coverage through my employer, but as anyone with a private plan knows, dental insurance can barely be called insurance. It’s fine for cleanings and basic preventive routines. But for more complicated and expensive procedures — which multiply as you age — you can be on the hook for half the cost, if you’re covered at all, with annual payout caps in the $1,500 range.

“The No. 1 reason for delayed dental care,” said Mertz, “is out-of-pocket costs.”

So I wondered if cost-wise, it would be better to dump my medical and dental coverage and switch to a Medicare plan that costs extra — Medicare Advantage — but includes dental care options. Almost in unison, my two dentists advised against that because Medicare supplemental plans can be so limited.

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Sorting it all out can be confusing and time-consuming, and nobody warns you in advance that aging itself is a job, the benefits are lousy, and the specialty care you’ll need most — dental, vision, hearing and long-term care — are not covered in the basic package. It’s as if Medicare was designed by pranksters, and we’re paying the price now as the percentage of the 65-and-up population explodes.

So what are people supposed to do as they get older and their teeth get looser?

A retired friend told me that she and her husband don’t have dental insurance because it costs too much and covers too little, and it turns out they’re not alone. By some estimates, half of U.S. residents 65 and older have no dental insurance.

That’s actually not a bad option, said Mertz, given the cost of insurance premiums and co-pays, along with the caps. And even if you’ve got insurance, a lot of dentists don’t accept it because the reimbursements have stagnated as their costs have spiked.

But without insurance, a lot of people simply don’t go to the dentist until they have to, and that can be dangerous.

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“Dental problems are very clearly associated with diabetes,” as well as heart problems and other health issues, said Paul Glassman, associate dean of the California Northstate University dentistry school.

There is one other option, and Mertz referred to it as dental tourism, saying that Mexico and Costa Rica are popular destinations for U.S. residents.

“You can get a week’s vacation and dental work and still come out ahead of what you’d be paying in the U.S.,” she said.

Tijuana dentist Dr. Oscar Ceballos told me that roughly 80% of his patients are from north of the border, and come from as far away as Florida, Wisconsin and Alaska. He has patients in their 80s and 90s who have been returning for years because in the U.S. their insurance was expensive, the coverage was limited and out-of-pocket expenses were unaffordable.

“For example, a dental implant in California is around $3,000-$5,000,” Ceballos said. At his office, depending on the specifics, the same service “is like $1,500 to $2,500.” The cost is lower because personnel, office rent and other overhead costs are cheaper than in the U.S., Ceballos said.

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As we spoke by phone, Ceballos peeked into his waiting room and said three patients were from the U.S. He handed his cellphone to one of them, San Diegan John Lane, who said he’s been going south of the border for nine years.

“The primary reason is the quality of the care,” said Lane, who told me he refers to himself as 39, “with almost 40 years of additional” time on the clock.

Ceballos is “conscientious and he has facilities that are as clean and sterile and as medically up to date as anything you’d find in the U.S.,” said Lane, who had driven his wife down from San Diego for a new crown.

“The cost is 50% less than what it would be in the U.S.,” said Lane, and sometimes the savings is even greater than that.

Come this summer, Lane may be seeing even more Californians in Ceballos’ waiting room.

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“Proposed funding cuts to the Medi-Cal Dental program would have devastating impacts on our state’s most vulnerable residents,” said dentist Robert Hanlon, president of the California Dental Assn.

Dental student Somkene Okwuego smiles after completing her work on patient Jimmy Stewart, 83, who receives affordable dental work at the Ostrow School of Dentistry of USC on the USC campus in Los Angeles on February 26, 2026.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

Under Proposition 56’s tobacco tax in 2016, supplemental reimbursements to dentists have been in place, but those increases could be wiped out under a budget-cutting proposal. Only about 40% of the state’s dentists accept Medi-Cal payments as it is, and Hanlon told me a CDA survey indicates that half would stop accepting Medi-Cal patients and many others will accept fewer patients.

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“It’s appalling that when the cost of providing healthcare is at an all-time high, the state is considering cutting program funding back to 1990s levels,” Hanlon said. “These cuts … will force patients to forgo or delay basic dental care, driving completely preventable emergencies into already overcrowded emergency departments.”

Somkene Okwuego, who as a child in South L.A. was occasionally a patient at USC’s Herman Ostrow School of Dentistry clinic, will graduate from the school in just a few months.

I first wrote about Okwuego three years ago, after she got an undergrad degree in gerontology, and she told me a few days ago that many of her dental patients are elderly and have Medi-Cal or no insurance at all. She has also worked at a Skid Row dental clinic, and plans after graduation to work at a clinic where dental care is free or discounted.

Okwuego said “fixing the smiles” of her patients is a privilege and boosts their self-image, which can help “when they’re trying to get jobs.” When I dropped by to see her Thursday, she was with 83-year-old patient Jimmy Stewart.

Stewart, an Army veteran, told me he had trouble getting dental care at the VA and had gone years without seeing a dentist before a friend recommended the Ostrow clinic. He said he’s had extractions and top-quality restorative care at USC, with the work covered by his Medi-Cal insurance.

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I told Stewart there could be some Medi-Cal cuts in the works this summer.

“I’d be screwed,” he said.

Him and a lot of other people.

steve.lopez@latimes.com

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Diablo Canyon clears last California permit hurdle to keep running

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Diablo Canyon clears last California permit hurdle to keep running

Central Coast Water authorities approved waste discharge permits for Diablo Canyon nuclear plant Thursday, making it nearly certain it will remain running through 2030, and potentially through 2045.

The Pacific Gas & Electric-owned plant was originally supposed to shut down in 2025, but lawmakers extended that deadline by five years in 2022, fearing power shortages if a plant that provides about 9 percent the state’s electricity were to shut off.

In December, Diablo Canyon received a key permit from the California Coastal Commission through an agreement that involved PG&E giving up about 12,000 acres of nearby land for conservation in exchange for the loss of marine life caused by the plant’s operations.

Today’s 6-0 vote by the Central Coast Regional Water Board approved PG&E’s plans to limit discharges of pollutants into the water and continue to run its “once-through cooling system.” The cooling technology flushes ocean water through the plant to absorb heat and discharges it, killing what the Coastal Commission estimated to be two billion fish each year.

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The board also granted the plant a certification under the Clean Water Act, the last state regulatory hurdle the facility needed to clear before the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is allowed to renew its permit through 2045.

The new regional water board permit made several changes since the last one was issued in 1990. One was a first-time limit on the chemical tributyltin-10, a toxic, internationally-banned compound added to paint to prevent organisms from growing on ship hulls.

Additional changes stemmed from a 2025 Supreme Court ruling that said if pollutant permits like this one impose specific water quality requirements, they must also specify how to meet them.

The plant’s biggest water quality impact is the heated water it discharges into the ocean, and that part of the permit remains unchanged. Radioactive waste from the plant is regulated not by the state but by the NRC.

California state law only allows the plant to remain open to 2030, but some lawmakers and regulators have already expressed interest in another extension given growing electricity demand and the plant’s role in providing carbon-free power to the grid.

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Some board members raised concerns about granting a certification that would allow the NRC to reauthorize the plant’s permits through 2045.

“There’s every reason to think the California entities responsible for making the decision about continuing operation, namely the California [Independent System Operator] and the Energy Commission, all of them are sort of leaning toward continuing to operate this facility,” said boardmember Dominic Roques. “I’d like us to be consistent with state law at least, and imply that we are consistent with ending operation at five years.”

Other board members noted that regulators could revisit the permits in five years or sooner if state and federal laws changes, and the board ultimately approved the permit.

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Deadly bird flu found in California elephant seals for the first time

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Deadly bird flu found in California elephant seals for the first time

The H5N1 bird flu virus that devastated South American elephant seal populations has been confirmed in seals at California’s Año Nuevo State Park, researchers from UC Davis and UC Santa Cruz announced Wednesday.

The virus has ravaged wild, commercial and domestic animals across the globe and was found last week in seven weaned pups. The confirmation came from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa.

“This is exceptionally rapid detection of an outbreak in free-ranging marine mammals,” said Professor Christine Johnson, director of the Institute for Pandemic Insights at UC Davis’ Weill School of Veterinary Medicine. “We have most likely identified the very first cases here because of coordinated teams that have been on high alert with active surveillance for this disease for some time.”

Since last week, when researchers began noticing neurological and respoiratory signs of the disease in some animals, 30 seals have died, said Roxanne Beltran, a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at UC Santa Cruz. Twenty-nine were weaned pups and the other was an adult male. The team has so far confirmed the virus in only seven of the dead pups.

Infected animals often have tremors convulsions, seizures and muscle weakness, Johnson said.

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Beltran said teams from UC Santa Cruz, UC Davis and California State Parks monitor the animals 260 days of the year, “including every day from December 15 to March 1” when the animals typically come ashore to breed, give birth and nurse.

The concerning behavior and deaths were first noticed Feb. 19.

“This is one of the most well-studied elephant seal colonies on the planet,” she said. “We know the seals so well that it’s very obvious to us when something is abnormal. And so my team was out that morning and we observed abnormal behaviors in seals and increased mortality that we had not seen the day before in those exact same locations. So we were very confident that we caught the beginning of this outbreak.”

In late 2022, the virus decimated southern elephant seal populations in South America and several sub-Antarctic Islands. At some colonies in Argentina, 97% of pups died, while on South Georgia Island, researchers reported a 47% decline in breeding females between 2022 and 2024. Researchers believe tens of thousands of animals died.

More than 30,000 sea lions in Peru and Chile died between 2022 and 2024. In Argentina, roughly 1,300 sea lions and fur seals perished.

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At the time, researchers were not sure why northern Pacific populations were not infected, but suspected previous or milder strains of the virus conferred some immunity.

The virus is better known in the U.S. for sweeping through the nation’s dairy herds, where it infected dozens of dairy workers, millions of cows and thousands of wild, feral and domestic mammals. It’s also been found in wild birds and killed millions of commercial chickens, geese and ducks.

Two Americans have died from the virus since 2024, and 71 have been infected. The vast majority were dairy or commercial poultry workers. One death was that of a Louisiana man who had underlying conditions and was believed to have been exposed via backyard poultry or wild birds.

Scientists at UC Santa Cruz and UC Davis increased their surveillance of the elephant seals in Año Nuevo in recent years. The catastrophic effect of the disease prompted worry that it would spread to California elephant seals, said Beltran, whose lab leads UC Santa Cruz’s northern elephant seal research program at Año Nuevo.

Johnson, the UC Davis researcher, said the team has been working with stranding networks across the Pacific region for several years — sampling the tissue of birds, elephant seals and other marine mammals. They have not seen the virus in other California marine mammals. Two previous outbreaks of bird flu in U.S. marine mammals occurred in Maine in 2022 and Washington in 2023, affecting gray and harbor seals.

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The virus in the animals has not yet been fully sequenced, so it’s unclear how the animals were exposed.

“We think the transmission is actually from dead and dying sea birds” living among the sea lions, Johnson said. “But we’ll certainly be investigating if there’s any mammal-to-mammal transmission.”

Genetic sequencing from southern elephant seal populations in Argentina suggested that version of the virus had acquired mutations that allowed it to pass between mammals.

The H5N1 virus was first detected in geese in China in 1996. Since then it has spread across the globe, reaching North America in 2021. The only continent where it has not been detected is Oceania.

Año Nuevo State Park, just north of Santa Cruz, is home to a colony of some 5,000 elephant seals during the winter breeding season. About 1,350 seals were on the beach when the outbreak began. Other large California colonies are located at Piedras Blancas and Point Reyes National Sea Shore. Most of those animals — roughly 900 — are weaned pups.

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It’s “important to keep this in context. So far, avian influenza has affected only a small proportion of the weaned at this time, and there are still thousands of apparently healthy animals in the population,” Beltran said in a press conference.

Public access to the park has been closed and guided elephant seal tours canceled.

Health and wildlife officials urge beachgoers to keep a safe distance from wildlife and keep dogs leashed because the virus is contagious.

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