Science
A mysterious, highly active undersea volcano near California could erupt later this year. What scientists expect
• Axial Seamount is the best-monitored submarine volcano in the world.
• It’s the most active undersea volcano closest to California.
• It could erupt by the end of the year.
A mysterious and highly active undersea volcano off the Pacific Coast could erupt by the end of this year, scientists say.
Nearly a mile deep and about 700 miles northwest of San Francisco, the volcano known as Axial Seamount is drawing increasing scrutiny from scientists who only discovered its existence in the 1980s.
Located in a darkened part of the northeast Pacific Ocean, the submarine volcano has erupted three times since its discovery — in 1998, 2011 and 2015 — according to Bill Chadwick, a research associate at Oregon State University and an expert on the volcano.
Fortunately for residents of California, Oregon and Washington, Axial Seamount doesn’t erupt explosively, so it poses zero risk of any tsunami.
“Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Rainier, Mt. Hood, Crater Lake — those kind of volcanoes have a lot more gas and are more explosive in general. The magma is more viscous,” Chadwick said. “Axial is more like the volcanoes in Hawaii and Iceland … less gas, the lava is very fluid, so the gas can get out without exploding.”
The destructive force of explosive eruptions is legendary: when Mt. Vesuvius blew in 79 AD, it wiped out the ancient Roman city of Pompeii; when Mt. St. Helens erupted in 1980, 57 people died; and when the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano in Tonga’s archipelago exploded in 2022 — a once-in-a-century event — the resulting tsunami, which reached a maximum height of 72 feet, caused damage across the Pacific Ocean and left at least six dead.
Axial Seamount, by contrast, is a volcano that, during eruptions, oozes lava — similar to the type of eruptions in Kilauea on the Big Island of Hawaii. As a result, Axial’s eruptions are not noticeable to people on land.
It’s a very different story underwater.
Heat plumes from the eruption will rise from the seafloor — perhaps half a mile — but won’t reach the surface, said William Wilcock, professor of oceanography at the University of Washington.
Jason is a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) system designed to allow scientists to have access to the seafloor without leaving the ship.
(Dave Caress/MBARI)
The outermost layer of the lava flow will almost immediately cool and form a crust, but the interior of the lava flow can remain molten for a time, Chadwick said. “In some places … the lava comes out slower and piles up, and then there’s all this heat that takes a long time to dissipate. And on those thick flows, microbial mats can grow, and it almost looks like snow over a landscape.”
Sea life can die if buried by the lava, which also risks destroying or damaging scientific equipment installed around the volcano to detect eruptions and earthquakes. But the eruption probably won’t affect sea life such as whales, which are “too close to the surface” to be bothered by the eruption, Wilcock said.
Also, eruptions at Axial Seamount aren’t expected to trigger a long-feared magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone. Such an earthquake would probably spawn a catastrophic tsunami for Washington, Oregon and California’s northernmost coastal counties. That’s because Axial Seamount is located too far away from that major fault.
Axial Seamount is one of countless volcanoes that are underwater. Scientists estimate that 80% of Earth’s volcanic output — magma and lava — occurs in the ocean.
Axial Seamount has drawn intense interest from scientists. It is now the best-monitored underwater volcano in the world.
The volcano is a prolific erupter in part because of its location, Chadwick said. Not only is it perched on a ridge where the Juan de Fuca and Pacific tectonic plates spread apart from each other — creating new seafloor in the process — but the volcano is also planted firmly above a geological “hot spot” — a region where plumes of superheated magma rise toward the Earth’s surface.
For Chadwick and other researchers, frequent eruptions offer the tantalizing opportunity to predict volcanic eruptions weeks to months in advance — something that’s very difficult to do with other volcanoes. (There’s also much less likelihood anyone will get mad if scientists get it wrong.)
A three-dimensional topographic depiction showing the summit caldera of Axial Seamount, a highly active undersea volcano off the Pacific Coast. Warmer colors indicate shallower surfaces; cooler colors indicate deeper surfaces.
(Susan Merle / Oregon State University)
“For a lot of volcanoes around the world, they sit around and are dormant for long periods of time, and then suddenly they get active. But this one is pretty active all the time, at least in the time period we’ve been studying it,” Chadwick said. “If it’s not erupting, it’s getting ready for the next one.”
Scientists know this because they’ve spotted a pattern.
“Between eruptions, the volcano slowly inflates — which means the seafloor rises. … And then during an eruption, it will, when the magma comes out, the volcano deflates and the seafloor drops down,” Wilcock said.
Eruptions, Chadwick said, are “like letting some air out of the balloon. And what we’ve seen is that it has inflated to a similar level each time when an eruption is triggered,” he said.
Chadwick and fellow scientist Scott Nooner predicted the volcano’s 2015 eruption seven months before it happened after they realized the seafloor was inflating quite quickly and linearly. That “made it easier to extrapolate into the future to get up to this threshold that it had reached before” eruption, Chadwick said.
But making predictions since then has been more challenging. Chadwick started making forecast windows in 2019, but around that time, the rate of inflation started slowing down, and by the summer of 2023, “it had almost stopped. So then it was like, ‘Who knows when it’s going to erupt?’”
A deep-sea octopus explores the lava flows four months after the Axial Seamount volcano erupted in 2015.
(Bill Chadwick, Oregon State University / Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution / National Science Foundation)
But in late 2023, the seafloor slowly began inflating again. Since the start of 2024, “it’s been kind of cranking along at a pretty steady rate,” he said. He and Nooner, of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington, made the latest eruption prediction in July 2024 and posted it to their blog. Their forecast remains unchanged.
“At the rate of inflation it’s going, I expect it to erupt by the end of the year,” Chadwick said.
But based on seismic data, it’s not likely the volcano is about to erupt imminently. While scientists haven’t mastered predicting volcanic eruptions weeks or months ahead of time, they do a decent job of forecasting eruptions minutes to hours to days ahead of time, using clues like an increased frequency of earthquakes.
At this point, “we’re not at the high rate of seismicity that we saw before 2015,” Chadwick said. “It wouldn’t shock me if it erupted tomorrow, but I’m thinking that it’s not going to be anytime soon on the whole.”
He cautioned that his forecast still amounts to an experiment, albeit one that has become quite public. “I feel like it’s more honest that way, instead of doing it in retrospect,” Chadwick said in a presentation in November. The forecast started to garner attention after he gave a talk at the American Geophysical Union meeting in December.
On the bright side, he said, “there’s no problem of having a false alarm or being wrong,” because the predictions won’t affect people on land.
If the predictions are correct, “maybe there’s lessons that can be applied to other more hazardous volcanoes around the world,” Chadwick said. As it stands now, though, making forecasts for eruptions for many volcanoes on land “are just more complicated,” without having a “repeatable pattern like we’re seeing at this one offshore.”
Scientists elsewhere have looked at other ways to forecast undersea eruptions. Scientists began noticing a repeatable pattern in the rising temperature of hydrothermal vents at a volcano in the East Pacific and the timing of three eruptions in the same spot over the last three decades. “And it sort of worked,” Chadwick said.
Plenty of luck allowed scientists to photograph the eruption of the volcanic site known as “9 degrees 50 minutes North on the East Pacific Rise,” which was just the third time scientists had ever captured images of active undersea volcanism.
But Chadwick doubts researchers will be fortunate enough to videotape Axial Seamount’s eruption.
Although scientists will be alerted to it by the National Science Foundation-funded Ocean Observatories Initiative Regional Cabled Array — a sensor system operated by the University of Washington — getting there in time will be a challenge.
“You have to be in the right place at the right time to catch an eruption in action, because they don’t last very long. The ones at Axial probably last a week or a month,” Chadwick said.
And then there’s the difficulty of getting a ship and a remotely operated vehicle or submarine to capture the images. Such vessels are generally scheduled far in advance, perhaps a year or a year and a half out, and projects are tightly scheduled.
Chadwick last went to the volcano in 2024 and is expected to go out next in the summer of 2026. If his predictions are correct, Axial Seamount will have already erupted.
Science
Can fire-resistant homes be sexy? ‘You be the judge,’ says this Palisades architect
At first glance, it looks like nothing more than a charming Spanish-revival, quintessentially Californian home — but this Pacific Palisades rebuild is constructed like a tank.
Every exterior wall of the steel-framed home is a foot-thick, fire-resistant barricade. The home is connected to a satellite fire monitoring service. Should a fire start in town, sturdy metal shutters descend to cover every window. An exterior sprinkler system can pump 40,000 gallons of water from giant tanks hidden behind the shrubs in the property’s yard. If the cameras and heat sensors around the house detect danger, the system can envelop the home in over 1,000 gallons of fire retardant and hundreds of gallons of fire-suppressing foam.
Palisades resident and architect Ardie Tavangarian is so confident in his design that he even asked the fire department if they could start a controlled fire on the property to test it all out. (They said no.)
Tavangarian built a career designing multimillion-dollar luxury homes in Los Angeles, but after the Palisades fire destroyed 13 of his works — including his family’s home — he found another calling: how to design a house that can handle what the Santa Monica Mountains throw at it. And how to do it quickly and affordably.
Water tanks form part of a backup water supply in a newly built fire-resistant home in Pacific Palisades.
“Nature is so powerful,” he said, sitting on a couch in the new house, which he built for his adult twin daughters. “We are guests living in that environment and expecting, ‘Oh, nature is going to be really kind to me.’ No, it’s not. It does what it’s supposed to do.”
Tavangarian watched the Jan. 1 Lachman fire from his property not far from here; a week later that fire rekindled, grew into the Palisades fire, and burned through his house. But the painful details of the fire — the missteps of the fire department, the empty reservoir — didn’t matter when it came to deciding how to rebuild, he said. The reality is, many fires have burned in these mountains. Many more will.
A sprinkler on the roof is part of a house-wide sprinkler system.
For the architect, who has spent much of his 45-year career designing for luxury, hardening a home against wildfire has brought a new kind of luxury to his homes: peace of mind.
It’s a sentiment that resonates with fire survivors: Tavangarian says he’s received considerable interest from other property owners in the Palisades looking to rebuild their houses.
The metal shutters and advanced outdoor sprinkler system are the flashiest parts of Tavangarian’s home hardening project, and the efficacy of these adaptations is still up for debate. Because the measures have not yet been widely adopted, there are few studies exploring how much or little they protect homes in real-world fires.
Architect Ardie Tavangarian inside the house he designed.
Anecdotal evidence has indicated the effectiveness of sprinklers can vary significantly based on the setup and the conditions during the fire. Extreme wind, for example, can make them less effective. Lab studies have generally found shutters can reduce the risk of windows shattering.
These measures aren’t cheap, either. Sprinkler systems can cost north of $100,000, for example. However, Tavangarian said when all was said and done, the home he built for his daughters cost around $700 per square foot — less than what Palisades residents said they expected to pay, but more than what Altadena residents expected for their rebuilds.
Tavangarian also hopes to see insurers increasingly consider the home-hardening measures property owners take when writing policies, which he said could potentially offset the extra cost in a decade or less. As he explored getting insurance for the new home, one insurer quoted him $80,000 a year. After he convinced the company to visit the property, it lowered the quote to just $13,000, he said.
The house includes metal heat shields that can drop down if a fire approaches.
The home also has essentially all of the other less flashy — but much cheaper and well-proven — home hardening measures recommended by fire professionals: The underside of the roof’s overhang is closed off — a common place embers enter a home. The roof, where burning embers can accumulate, is made of fire-resistant material. The windows, vulnerable to shattering in extreme heat, are made of a toughened glass. There is virtually no vegetation within the first five feet of the home.
When asked if he felt he had compromised on design, comfort or aesthetics for the extra protection — one of the many concerns Californians have with the state’s draft “Zone Zero” requirements that may significantly limit vegetation within five feet of a home — Tavangarian simply said, “You be the judge.”
Science
Commentary: My toothache led to a painful discovery: The dental care system is full of cavities as you age
I had a nagging toothache recently, and it led to an even more painful revelation.
If you X-rayed the state of oral health care in the United States, particularly for people 65 and older, the picture would be full of cavities.
“It’s probably worse than you can even imagine,” said Elizabeth Mertz, a UC San Francisco professor and Healthforce Center researcher who studies barriers to dental care for seniors.
Mertz once referred to the snaggletoothed, gap-filled oral health care system — which isn’t really a system at all — as “a mess.”
But let me get back to my toothache, while I reach for some painkiller. It had been bothering me for a couple of weeks, so I went to see my dentist, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst, having had two extractions in less than two years.
Let’s make it a trifecta.
My dentist said a molar needed to be yanked because of a cellular breakdown called resorption, and a periodontist in his office recommended a bone graft and probably an implant. The whole process would take several months and cost roughly the price of a swell vacation.
I’m lucky to have a great dentist and dental coverage through my employer, but as anyone with a private plan knows, dental insurance can barely be called insurance. It’s fine for cleanings and basic preventive routines. But for more complicated and expensive procedures — which multiply as you age — you can be on the hook for half the cost, if you’re covered at all, with annual payout caps in the $1,500 range.
“The No. 1 reason for delayed dental care,” said Mertz, “is out-of-pocket costs.”
So I wondered if cost-wise, it would be better to dump my medical and dental coverage and switch to a Medicare plan that costs extra — Medicare Advantage — but includes dental care options. Almost in unison, my two dentists advised against that because Medicare supplemental plans can be so limited.
Sorting it all out can be confusing and time-consuming, and nobody warns you in advance that aging itself is a job, the benefits are lousy, and the specialty care you’ll need most — dental, vision, hearing and long-term care — are not covered in the basic package. It’s as if Medicare was designed by pranksters, and we’re paying the price now as the percentage of the 65-and-up population explodes.
So what are people supposed to do as they get older and their teeth get looser?
A retired friend told me that she and her husband don’t have dental insurance because it costs too much and covers too little, and it turns out they’re not alone. By some estimates, half of U.S. residents 65 and older have no dental insurance.
That’s actually not a bad option, said Mertz, given the cost of insurance premiums and co-pays, along with the caps. And even if you’ve got insurance, a lot of dentists don’t accept it because the reimbursements have stagnated as their costs have spiked.
But without insurance, a lot of people simply don’t go to the dentist until they have to, and that can be dangerous.
“Dental problems are very clearly associated with diabetes,” as well as heart problems and other health issues, said Paul Glassman, associate dean of the California Northstate University dentistry school.
There is one other option, and Mertz referred to it as dental tourism, saying that Mexico and Costa Rica are popular destinations for U.S. residents.
“You can get a week’s vacation and dental work and still come out ahead of what you’d be paying in the U.S.,” she said.
Tijuana dentist Dr. Oscar Ceballos told me that roughly 80% of his patients are from north of the border, and come from as far away as Florida, Wisconsin and Alaska. He has patients in their 80s and 90s who have been returning for years because in the U.S. their insurance was expensive, the coverage was limited and out-of-pocket expenses were unaffordable.
“For example, a dental implant in California is around $3,000-$5,000,” Ceballos said. At his office, depending on the specifics, the same service “is like $1,500 to $2,500.” The cost is lower because personnel, office rent and other overhead costs are cheaper than in the U.S., Ceballos said.
As we spoke by phone, Ceballos peeked into his waiting room and said three patients were from the U.S. He handed his cellphone to one of them, San Diegan John Lane, who said he’s been going south of the border for nine years.
“The primary reason is the quality of the care,” said Lane, who told me he refers to himself as 39, “with almost 40 years of additional” time on the clock.
Ceballos is “conscientious and he has facilities that are as clean and sterile and as medically up to date as anything you’d find in the U.S.,” said Lane, who had driven his wife down from San Diego for a new crown.
“The cost is 50% less than what it would be in the U.S.,” said Lane, and sometimes the savings is even greater than that.
Come this summer, Lane may be seeing even more Californians in Ceballos’ waiting room.
“Proposed funding cuts to the Medi-Cal Dental program would have devastating impacts on our state’s most vulnerable residents,” said dentist Robert Hanlon, president of the California Dental Assn.
Dental student Somkene Okwuego smiles after completing her work on patient Jimmy Stewart, 83, who receives affordable dental work at the Ostrow School of Dentistry of USC on the USC campus in Los Angeles on February 26, 2026.
(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
Under Proposition 56’s tobacco tax in 2016, supplemental reimbursements to dentists have been in place, but those increases could be wiped out under a budget-cutting proposal. Only about 40% of the state’s dentists accept Medi-Cal payments as it is, and Hanlon told me a CDA survey indicates that half would stop accepting Medi-Cal patients and many others will accept fewer patients.
“It’s appalling that when the cost of providing healthcare is at an all-time high, the state is considering cutting program funding back to 1990s levels,” Hanlon said. “These cuts … will force patients to forgo or delay basic dental care, driving completely preventable emergencies into already overcrowded emergency departments.”
Somkene Okwuego, who as a child in South L.A. was occasionally a patient at USC’s Herman Ostrow School of Dentistry clinic, will graduate from the school in just a few months.
I first wrote about Okwuego three years ago, after she got an undergrad degree in gerontology, and she told me a few days ago that many of her dental patients are elderly and have Medi-Cal or no insurance at all. She has also worked at a Skid Row dental clinic, and plans after graduation to work at a clinic where dental care is free or discounted.
Okwuego said “fixing the smiles” of her patients is a privilege and boosts their self-image, which can help “when they’re trying to get jobs.” When I dropped by to see her Thursday, she was with 83-year-old patient Jimmy Stewart.
Stewart, an Army veteran, told me he had trouble getting dental care at the VA and had gone years without seeing a dentist before a friend recommended the Ostrow clinic. He said he’s had extractions and top-quality restorative care at USC, with the work covered by his Medi-Cal insurance.
I told Stewart there could be some Medi-Cal cuts in the works this summer.
“I’d be screwed,” he said.
Him and a lot of other people.
steve.lopez@latimes.com
Science
Diablo Canyon clears last California permit hurdle to keep running
Central Coast Water authorities approved waste discharge permits for Diablo Canyon nuclear plant Thursday, making it nearly certain it will remain running through 2030, and potentially through 2045.
The Pacific Gas & Electric-owned plant was originally supposed to shut down in 2025, but lawmakers extended that deadline by five years in 2022, fearing power shortages if a plant that provides about 9 percent the state’s electricity were to shut off.
In December, Diablo Canyon received a key permit from the California Coastal Commission through an agreement that involved PG&E giving up about 12,000 acres of nearby land for conservation in exchange for the loss of marine life caused by the plant’s operations.
Today’s 6-0 vote by the Central Coast Regional Water Board approved PG&E’s plans to limit discharges of pollutants into the water and continue to run its “once-through cooling system.” The cooling technology flushes ocean water through the plant to absorb heat and discharges it, killing what the Coastal Commission estimated to be two billion fish each year.
The board also granted the plant a certification under the Clean Water Act, the last state regulatory hurdle the facility needed to clear before the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is allowed to renew its permit through 2045.
The new regional water board permit made several changes since the last one was issued in 1990. One was a first-time limit on the chemical tributyltin-10, a toxic, internationally-banned compound added to paint to prevent organisms from growing on ship hulls.
Additional changes stemmed from a 2025 Supreme Court ruling that said if pollutant permits like this one impose specific water quality requirements, they must also specify how to meet them.
The plant’s biggest water quality impact is the heated water it discharges into the ocean, and that part of the permit remains unchanged. Radioactive waste from the plant is regulated not by the state but by the NRC.
California state law only allows the plant to remain open to 2030, but some lawmakers and regulators have already expressed interest in another extension given growing electricity demand and the plant’s role in providing carbon-free power to the grid.
Some board members raised concerns about granting a certification that would allow the NRC to reauthorize the plant’s permits through 2045.
“There’s every reason to think the California entities responsible for making the decision about continuing operation, namely the California [Independent System Operator] and the Energy Commission, all of them are sort of leaning toward continuing to operate this facility,” said boardmember Dominic Roques. “I’d like us to be consistent with state law at least, and imply that we are consistent with ending operation at five years.”
Other board members noted that regulators could revisit the permits in five years or sooner if state and federal laws changes, and the board ultimately approved the permit.
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