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10 Years After the Paris Climate Agreement, Here’s Where We Are

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10 Years After the Paris Climate Agreement, Here’s Where We Are

Almost exactly 10 years ago, a remarkable thing happened in a conference hall on the outskirts of Paris: After years of bitter negotiations, the leaders of nearly every country agreed to try to slow down global warming in an effort to head off its most devastating effects.

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The core idea was that countries would set their own targets to reduce their climate pollution in ways that made sense for them. Rich, industrialized nations were expected to go fastest and to help lower-income countries pay for the changes they needed to cope with climate hazards.

So, has anything changed over those 10 years? Actually, yes. Quite a bit, for the better and the worse. For one thing, every country remains committed to the Paris Agreement, except one. That’s the United States.

We wanted to help you cut through the noise and show you 10 big things that have happened in the last 10 years.

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1. Emissions have come down, but there’s still far to go.

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Call this good-ish news. Lower emissions mean the arc of temperature increase has curved downward over the past 10 years. If countries stick to current policies, the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That’s a significant improvement from where we were 10 years ago: In 2015, scientific models said we were on track to increase the global average temperature by up to 3.8 degrees Celsius.

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Global greenhouse gas emissions and expected warming

But none of the world’s biggest emitters — China, the U.S., the European Union, India — have met their Paris promises. And every degree of warming matters. A one-degree increase in average temperature, for instance, raises malaria risk for children in sub-Saharan Africa by 77 percent.

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2. The last 10 years were the hottest on record.

We started burning coal, oil and gas on a large scale roughly 150 years ago. As a result, global temperatures have been rising ever since, and the last 10 years have been the hottest 10 on record.

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Global temperatures compared with late-19th-century average

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Source: Copernicus/ECMWF

Note: Temperature anomalies relative to 1850-1900 averages.

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The most scorching was 2024. That year, extreme heat killed election workers in India and pilgrims on the hajj in Saudi Arabia. This year, it forced the temporary closure of the top of the Eiffel Tower at the peak of tourist season and shuttered schools in parts of the United States.

3. Solar is spreading faster than we thought it would.

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Solar power has been the largest source of new electricity generation for the last three years. Most of this new solar infrastructure is coming up inside China, and Chinese companies are making so much surplus solar equipment — cells, modules and everything that goes into them — that prices have plummeted.

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Forecasts keep underestimating solar growth

Source: IEA STEPS via BNEF and Ember

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Today, solar panels hang from apartment balconies in Germany and cover vast areas of desert in Saudi Arabia. Solar and onshore wind projects offer the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Little wonder, then, that in India’s electricity sector, more than half of the generation capacity now comes from solar, wind and hydropower.

4. Electric vehicles are now normal.

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The way the world moves has changed. At the time of the Paris Agreement, Tesla had just unveiled its luxury electric SUV. Fast forward to last year: Worldwide, one in five cars sold was electric.

In the United States, 265,000 children ride electric buses to school. In Kenya, electric motorcycle taxis ferry commuters to work. Chinese carmakers are assembling E.V.s abroad, including in Brazil, Indonesia and, soon, in Saudi Arabia, a petrostate.

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Electrifying transportation is important because it’s one of the biggest sources of emissions globally. Currently, electric vehicles are displacing 2 million barrels of oil demand per day, roughly equal to Germany’s total daily demand, according to BloombergNEF.

5. Rich countries have put relatively little money on the table.

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One of the key tenets of the Paris Agreement was an acknowledgement that countries had different responsibilities. Wealthy industrialized countries were supposed to pony up money to help poorer countries do two things: transition to renewable energy and adapt to the problems brought on by a hotter climate.

Last year, countries agreed that a total of $1.3 trillion would be needed every year by 2035 to help developing countries manage climate harms, including $300 billion a year in public monies from rich countries. That’s far more than what rich countries have thus far made available. Where that money will come from is still uncertain.

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Public climate finance from developed countries would need to increase substantially

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Meanwhile, some of the poorest countries are getting clobbered by extreme weather. They’re falling deeper into debt as they try to recover.

6. Coal is in a weird place.

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The growth of coal is slowing worldwide. That matters because coal, which powered the modern industrial economy, is the dirtiest fossil fuel.

Coal is waning in wealthy countries, including the United States, despite President Trump’s efforts to expand its use. Britain, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, closed its last coal plant in 2024. That year, more than half of Britain’s electricity came from renewables. But coal is still growing in China, which, despite its pledge to clean up its economy, has gone on to build more coal plants than any other country, ever.

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In America, coal demand fell faster than expected…

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05001,0001,500 megatons20002035ActualProjections

…while in China, it grew faster than expected

3,5004,0004,5005,000 megatons20152027ActualProjections

Sources: International Energy Agency via Ember, RethinkX and Thunder Said Energy

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Note: U.S. demand was converted from quadrillion BTU to metric tons using the U.S. EIA’s annual heat content factor for the electric power sector; all projected years use the 2025 factor.

7. Natural gas, a planet-warming fossil fuel, is ascendant thanks to America.

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Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the United States has rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas.

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Liquid natural gas opened up an export boom

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Source: S&P Global

Note: Chart shows top four global LNG exporters.

Mr. Trump, in his second term, has supersized that ambition. He appointed Chris Wright, a former fracking executive, as the U.S. energy secretary, and he has used the sale of American gas as a diplomatic and trade cudgel. That matters because, while gas is cleaner than coal as a source of electricity, it stands to lock the world into gas use for decades to come.

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8. Forests are losing their climate superpower.

Fires are increasingly driving forest loss worldwide. That’s because rising temperatures and more intense droughts are making forests burn more easily and also because people are setting fire to forests to clear land for agriculture.

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The world’s forests are absorbing less carbon dioxide

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Source: World Resources Institute

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Note: Each bar represents annual net emissions of forests

That’s limiting the ability of many forests to store planet-warming carbon dioxide. In fact, it’s pushing parts of the Amazon rainforest, often called the lungs of the planet, to a startling tipping point. Parts of the Amazon are releasing more carbon than trees and soil are absorbing. One recent study found the same pattern in the rainforests of Australia.

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9. Corals are bleaching more often.

Since 2015, two separate global bleaching events have stretched over six years. They’re happening much more often than before, and affecting more reefs, because the oceans are heating up fast.

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Percent of the world’s coral reefs affected by each bleaching event

Corals are important because they support so many other creatures, including fish that millions of people rely on for nutrition and income. About a quarter of all marine species depend on reefs at some point in their life cycle.

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Many reefs have been ravaged, but some coral species are turning out to be more resilient to marine heat waves than we had thought. That’s good-ish news, too.

10. U.S. electricity demand is soaring, in part because of A.I.

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Power demand had always been expected to increase worldwide. More than a billion people still need access to electricity, and billions of others around the globe are buying air-conditioners and plugging in electric vehicles. But a big surprise came from the United States.

American electricity demand was pretty flat in the 2010s but is now rising significantly and is projected to climb for at least another decade. One reason: energy-hungry A.I. That raises a critical question for Big Tech: Will its A.I. ambitions heat up the planet faster?

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After two decades of slower demand growth, energy needs are rising.

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What does all this mean for the world’s 8 billion people?

The physical damage inflicted by global warming costs the global economy around $1.4 trillion a year, according to BloombergNEF.

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It means we are being forced to adapt to new conditions on a climate-altered planet. Many already are, especially the most vulnerable among us. In India, a women’s union has created a tiny new insurance plan to help workers cope when it gets dangerously hot. In China, a landscape architect has persuaded cities to create porous surfaces to let floodwaters seep in. In the United States, school playgrounds are adding shade to protect kids on exceptionally hot days. In California, an app developer created a tool to help his neighbors track the path of wildfires. In Malawi and Uganda, people are experimenting with growing different crops.

A big problem is, there’s very little money to help them, and even that has declined in the last couple of years.

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The librarian who became Palomar’s first female telescope operator, and who discovered her own comets

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The librarian who became Palomar’s first female telescope operator, and who discovered her own comets

More times than she can remember, Jean Mueller stood on the catwalk of the 200-inch Hale Telescope at the Palomar Observatory scanning the night sky, trying to time the exact moment to close the dome.

An hour and a half northeast of San Diego, the Palomar Observatory is owned and operated by Caltech, and as telescope operator, Mueller was responsible for protecting its instruments from the weather. Inside the structure, a 200-inch mirror captured light from distant stars in a time window crucial to the observing astronomer’s research. But when a fog bank rolled closer, Mueller had to make the call.

“I would get the dome closed within a minute or two of the fog actually hitting it,” said Mueller. “We are vigilant for anything that might damage the mirror. You don’t want acid rain on the mirror because that’s going to eat the aluminum coating. Ash, combined with humidity, can be caustic.”

Mueller, a telescope operator at Palomar from 1985 to 2014, called her path to astronomy “nonstandard.” She had a graduate degree in library science and had worked as a librarian for USC for 10 years when she learned about a job opening at a different Southern California observatory: Mt. Wilson, near Pasadena, run by the Carnegie Institution of Washington. The role: collecting data and operating the 60-inch telescope.

Mueller had begun exploring astronomy by taking a four-week evening class at Griffith Observatory. Drawn to know more, she continued taking classes at USC and Rio Hondo College. As Mueller’s astronomy community grew, her friend Howard Lanning, an astronomer and telescope operator, encouraged her to apply for a position at Mt. Wilson Observatory.

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“That was probably when my life changed,” Mueller said. “It had never occurred to me to leave my library job and pursue astronomy. I didn’t have an astronomy degree; I had just taken a handful of classes.”

Jean Mueller sits in front of the control panel of the 200-inch Hale Telescope at the Palomar Observatory.

(Kajsa Peffer)

For as long as she can recall, Mueller has loved the stars. She remembers one specific day in 1958, when she was just 8 years old:

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“My brother and I were jumping on the bed, and he told me Halley’s Comet would be visible in 1985.”

Mueller was born in an era when major research telescopes throughout the country still excluded women. Since the early 1900s, although the Carnegie Institution employed women as “computers,” with few exceptions, they were not permitted to use its telescopes. Both Mt. Wilson and Palomar had named their astronomers’ quarters “The Monastery,” male retreats where women were barred from scientific conversations. The male-only housing later became a justification to routinely deny women access to these telescopes.

By the 1950s, women were only beginning to overcome gender barriers to gain access to the telescopes at the Mt. Wilson and Palomar observatories. From Margaret Burbidge to Vera Rubin to Nobel Prize winner Andrea Ghez, pioneering women astronomers built an intergenerational legacy of research and discoveries at Palomar that would transform understanding of the universe forever.

As the first female telescope operator on Palomar, Mueller supported their work, and generations of astronomers. With the expertise and technical training she gained on Palomar, she also began to make her own discoveries.

When Mueller was offered the Mt. Wilson job, she initially worried about the financial risk of changing careers and leaving 10 years of previous experience at USC. But during this time, she chanced to attend a lecture by author Ray Bradbury.

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Mueller still remembers the words that led her to take the leap into astronomy. “Whatever you do,” Bradbury advised, “be sure it makes you happy.”

After operating the 60-inch telescope on Mt. Wilson for two and a half years and becoming the first woman to operate the observatory’s 100-inch Hooker Telescope, Mueller interviewed for a new job at Palomar. In 1985, she became the operator for the Samuel Oschin 48-inch telescope, making her the first female telescope operator at the Palomar Observatory. She would stay for 29 years.

“During her first year at Palomar, Mueller worked with Caltech staff astronomer Charles Kowal, who had successfully searched for solar system objects and supernovae. An expert in taking images and scanning the fragile 14-by-14-inch plates that captured data from Palomar’s telescopes during those years, Kowal taught Mueller critical techniques in the complex process.

“Charlie Kowal was the first person to tell me that transient objects like comets and asteroids needed to be identified in a timely manner,” Mueller said. She also learned from Alain J. Maury, a French photographic scientist for the Palomar Observatory Second Sky Survey (POSSII), who taught her astrometry techniques to record the location of celestial objects.

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With the encouragement of Kowal and Maury, Mueller began scanning POSSII’s plates, looking for comets, asteroids and supernovae. Scanning involved moving the plate by hand beneath a stationary eyepiece.

“There was something unbelievably exciting about discovering a new comet in the sky,” Mueller said. “A real adrenaline rush.

Mueller learned to operate all three large telescopes on Palomar: the 200-inch Hale Telescope, where she was the senior operator for 15 years; the 60-inch telescope, and the 48-inch Samuel Oschin Telescope.

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Over the course of her observational career, Mueller made significant discoveries of her own. Using the Samuel Oschin Telescope, she discovered 15 comets, 13 asteroids — seven of which are near-Earth objects — and 107 supernovae.

And when Comet Halley appeared in the skies in December 1985, Mueller was operating the 200-inch telescope on Palomar. At the time, it was the most powerful telescope in the world.

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California case suggests Tamiflu may save cats infected with H5N1 bird flu

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California case suggests Tamiflu may save cats infected with H5N1 bird flu

Since the avian flu arrived en force in California’s dairy industry in 2024, not only has it sickened cows, it has killed hundreds of domestic cats. Some pet cats that live on dairy farms were infected with the H5N1 virus by drinking raw milk. Both pets and feral barn cats got sick after eating raw pet food that harbored the virus. Still others got it by eating infected wild birds, rats or mice, or from contact with dairy workers’ contaminated clothes or boots.

But a new published case suggests that death may be averted if infected cats are treated early with antiviral medications, such as Tamiflu, or oseltamivir. Once treated, these animals may carry antibodies to the virus that makes them resistant to reinfection, at least temporarily.

The discovery was made by Jake Gomez, a veterinarian who treats small animals, such as cats and dogs, as well as large ones, including dairy cows, from his clinic, Cross Street Small Animal Veterinary Hospital, in Tulare.

Last fall, Gomez worked with a team of scientists from the University of Maryland and University of Texas who were in the Central Valley collecting blood samples from outdoor cats at dairy farms, looking to see if they could find antibodies to the H5N1 flu.

Cats are exquisitely sensitive to H5N1; one of the telltale signs that a dairy herd is infected is the presence of dead barn cats.

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On Oct. 31, a cat owner brought in an indoor/outdoor cat to Gomez’ clinic that was ADR — a technical veterinarian acronym that stands for “ain’t doing right.”

The cat was up-to-date on all its vaccinations and the owner reported no known exposure to toxic chemicals.

Gomez offered to do blood work and urinalysis to probe more deeply what was going on, but the owner declined. So, Gomez sent them home with an antibiotic and an appetite stimulant. Two days later, the cat died.

It turned out the family had had another cat die just a few days earlier, Gomez said, recalling the visit.

Also during that time, Gomez was treating infected dairy herds around Tulare. Thousands of cows were falling sick from the virus. The family with the sick cats, he learned, lived less than a mile from an infected dairy, and the cat owner worked delivering hay to local dairies, spending time on infected farms.

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“Considering how quickly it moved from one cat to the next, it occurred to me it might be H5N1,” he said.

Gomez said he reached out to the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the California Department of Food and Agriculture to see if they would test the dead animals for the virus. The agencies, he said, gave him the runaround and he couldn’t get anyone to answer his calls — which he said was perplexing, considering the rapid response when he alerted them to infected cattle.

“If I called to tell them a dairy herd had it, within 24 hours a SWAT team from the USDA and state would be swarming the farm,” he said. But for a cat? Crickets.

On Nov. 6 and 7, the family returned with two more sick cats.

Gomez said he still didn’t know what they had, but had a suspicion they could be infected with H5N1. So, he treated them with the antiviral oseltamivir, known also as Tamiflu, and they recovered.

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In March this year, blood samples collected from the two cats showed high levels of antibodies to H5N1 — suggesting the cats had been exposed.

The case was published in the journal One Health.

Kristen Coleman, an airborne infectious disease researcher at the University of Maryland School of Public Health, and an author on the paper, said the findings suggest that cats may be effectively treated and that antiviral medications could help prevent further spread of the virus among cats living in the same home and the humans who care for them.

She said there have been no known transmissions from cats to humans in this outbreak, but there have in the past — in 2005, Thai zookeepers were infected by tigers that had the virus, and in 2016, New York veterinarians at an animal shelter got it from tending to sick cats.

But Jane Sykes, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, said she’s not convinced the cats in this case actually had H5N1 — and urged people to read the study with care and caution.

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“It’s possible that the positive antibody test results were unrelated to the reasons why those two cats died,” she said. “The virus wasn’t detected in any of the four cats, so infection was not proven.”

And whether the cats recovered because they were treated with Tamiflu, or whether the medication was incidental and they’d have recovered on their own — from another virus, infection or ailment — isn’t clear.

In addition, she said, no one has researched the effects of Tamiflu on cats. And while these two cats appeared to tolerate the drug, that doesn’t mean other cats will.

“Cats metabolize some of the anti-infective compounds very differently than other animals, including people, and they’re quite susceptible to bad side effects of many of these drugs,” she said. “We have to be really careful when we start just using random antiviral drugs that haven’t been studied for safety in cats, because they are so likely to get bad side effects.”

Having said that, she said if she were faced with a similar situation, a high certainty that a cat had been exposed, whether from drinking raw milk or eating raw food that had been infected, she would consider prescribing the medication. But she’d caution her client that it was experimental, and the animal could die from the drug.

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She said there are numerous labs across the country that will test blood and urine for the virus.

Sykes urged people not to feed raw food or milk to their pets.

She said she’s seeing more raw food products for pets “and people want them, and they don’t understand the harms and the fact that some of these are contaminated for a long period of time with influenza viruses, like H5N1.”

Neither freezing nor smoking meat kills the virus.

“It’s astonishing how big this industry is getting,” Sykes said. “It’s crazy.”

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Whales are getting tangled in lines and ropes off the California coast in record numbers

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Whales are getting tangled in lines and ropes off the California coast in record numbers

The number of whales getting tangled up in fishing nets, line, buoys and other miscellaneous rope off the coasts of the United States hit a record high in 2024, with California taking the ignominious lead.

According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, there were 95 confirmed entangled whales in U.S. waters last year. Eighty-seven were live animals, while reports for eight came in after the animals had died.

On average, 71 whales are reported entangled each year. There were 64 in 2023.

More than 70% of the reports were from the coastal waters off California, Alaska, Hawaii and Massachusetts. California accounted for 25% in 2024, most in the San Francisco and Monterey bay areas.

Humpback whales were hardest hit, accounting for 77 of the cases. Other whale species include North Pacific gray whales, the North Atlantic right whale, minke, sperm, fin and bowhead whales.

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Entanglements are just one of many threats facing whales worldwide. Earlier this year, 21 gray whales died in Bay Area waters, mostly after getting struck by ships. The animals are increasingly stressed from changes in food availability, shipping traffic, noise pollution, waste discharge, disease and plastic debris, and their ability to avoid and survive these impediments is diminishing.

Since 2007, more than 920 humpback whales have been maimed or killed by long line ropes that commercial crabbers use to haul up cages from the sea floor. The report notes that about half the incidents are directly tied to commercial and recreational fishing lines. The remaining 49 also involved line and buoys but in circumstances that could not be traced back to a specific fishery.

The report comes after years of government and conservation group efforts with the commercial fishing industry to increase awareness and encourage different fishing technologies — such as pop-up fishing gear, which uses a remote-controlled pop-up balloon device to bring cages to the surface, rather than relying on lines.

It also comes as funding for NOAA is threatened and Congress is considering draft legislation that would weaken the Marine Mammal Protection Act, one of the country’s foundational environmental laws, signed by President Nixon in 1972.

“This report paints a clear picture: our current safeguards are not enough,” said Gib Brogan, campaign director for Oceana, an ocean advocacy group, in a statement.

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He said things are likely to get worse if NOAA’s funding is cut and the Marine Mammal Protection Act is eroded.

“These findings underscore an urgent need for coordinated action,” said Kathi George, the Sausalito-based Marine Mammal Center’s director of cetacean conservation in a statement. “Together, we can apply the best available science to reduce the risk of entanglement, through strategies like supporting fisher-led initiatives, improving detection and response efforts, and enhancing reporting and data sharing.”

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