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10 Years After the Paris Climate Agreement, Here’s Where We Are

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10 Years After the Paris Climate Agreement, Here’s Where We Are

Almost exactly 10 years ago, a remarkable thing happened in a conference hall on the outskirts of Paris: After years of bitter negotiations, the leaders of nearly every country agreed to try to slow down global warming in an effort to head off its most devastating effects.

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The core idea was that countries would set their own targets to reduce their climate pollution in ways that made sense for them. Rich, industrialized nations were expected to go fastest and to help lower-income countries pay for the changes they needed to cope with climate hazards.

So, has anything changed over those 10 years? Actually, yes. Quite a bit, for the better and the worse. For one thing, every country remains committed to the Paris Agreement, except one. That’s the United States.

We wanted to help you cut through the noise and show you 10 big things that have happened in the last 10 years.

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1. Emissions have come down, but there’s still far to go.

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Call this good-ish news. Lower emissions mean the arc of temperature increase has curved downward over the past 10 years. If countries stick to current policies, the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That’s a significant improvement from where we were 10 years ago: In 2015, scientific models said we were on track to increase the global average temperature by up to 3.8 degrees Celsius.

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Global greenhouse gas emissions and expected warming

But none of the world’s biggest emitters — China, the U.S., the European Union, India — have met their Paris promises. And every degree of warming matters. A one-degree increase in average temperature, for instance, raises malaria risk for children in sub-Saharan Africa by 77 percent.

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2. The last 10 years were the hottest on record.

We started burning coal, oil and gas on a large scale roughly 150 years ago. As a result, global temperatures have been rising ever since, and the last 10 years have been the hottest 10 on record.

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Global temperatures compared with late-19th-century average

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Source: Copernicus/ECMWF

Note: Temperature anomalies relative to 1850-1900 averages.

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The most scorching was 2024. That year, extreme heat killed election workers in India and pilgrims on the hajj in Saudi Arabia. This year, it forced the temporary closure of the top of the Eiffel Tower at the peak of tourist season and shuttered schools in parts of the United States.

3. Solar is spreading faster than we thought it would.

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Solar power has been the largest source of new electricity generation for the last three years. Most of this new solar infrastructure is coming up inside China, and Chinese companies are making so much surplus solar equipment — cells, modules and everything that goes into them — that prices have plummeted.

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Forecasts keep underestimating solar growth

Source: IEA STEPS via BNEF and Ember

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Today, solar panels hang from apartment balconies in Germany and cover vast areas of desert in Saudi Arabia. Solar and onshore wind projects offer the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Little wonder, then, that in India’s electricity sector, more than half of the generation capacity now comes from solar, wind and hydropower.

4. Electric vehicles are now normal.

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The way the world moves has changed. At the time of the Paris Agreement, Tesla had just unveiled its luxury electric SUV. Fast forward to last year: Worldwide, one in five cars sold was electric.

In the United States, 265,000 children ride electric buses to school. In Kenya, electric motorcycle taxis ferry commuters to work. Chinese carmakers are assembling E.V.s abroad, including in Brazil, Indonesia and, soon, in Saudi Arabia, a petrostate.

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Electrifying transportation is important because it’s one of the biggest sources of emissions globally. Currently, electric vehicles are displacing 2 million barrels of oil demand per day, roughly equal to Germany’s total daily demand, according to BloombergNEF.

5. Rich countries have put relatively little money on the table.

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One of the key tenets of the Paris Agreement was an acknowledgement that countries had different responsibilities. Wealthy industrialized countries were supposed to pony up money to help poorer countries do two things: transition to renewable energy and adapt to the problems brought on by a hotter climate.

Last year, countries agreed that a total of $1.3 trillion would be needed every year by 2035 to help developing countries manage climate harms, including $300 billion a year in public monies from rich countries. That’s far more than what rich countries have thus far made available. Where that money will come from is still uncertain.

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Public climate finance from developed countries would need to increase substantially

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Meanwhile, some of the poorest countries are getting clobbered by extreme weather. They’re falling deeper into debt as they try to recover.

6. Coal is in a weird place.

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The growth of coal is slowing worldwide. That matters because coal, which powered the modern industrial economy, is the dirtiest fossil fuel.

Coal is waning in wealthy countries, including the United States, despite President Trump’s efforts to expand its use. Britain, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, closed its last coal plant in 2024. That year, more than half of Britain’s electricity came from renewables. But coal is still growing in China, which, despite its pledge to clean up its economy, has gone on to build more coal plants than any other country, ever.

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In America, coal demand fell faster than expected…

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05001,0001,500 megatons20002035ActualProjections

…while in China, it grew faster than expected

3,5004,0004,5005,000 megatons20152027ActualProjections

Sources: International Energy Agency via Ember, RethinkX and Thunder Said Energy

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Note: U.S. demand was converted from quadrillion BTU to metric tons using the U.S. EIA’s annual heat content factor for the electric power sector; all projected years use the 2025 factor.

7. Natural gas, a planet-warming fossil fuel, is ascendant thanks to America.

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Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the United States has rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas.

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Liquid natural gas opened up an export boom

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Source: S&P Global

Note: Chart shows top four global LNG exporters.

Mr. Trump, in his second term, has supersized that ambition. He appointed Chris Wright, a former fracking executive, as the U.S. energy secretary, and he has used the sale of American gas as a diplomatic and trade cudgel. That matters because, while gas is cleaner than coal as a source of electricity, it stands to lock the world into gas use for decades to come.

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8. Forests are losing their climate superpower.

Fires are increasingly driving forest loss worldwide. That’s because rising temperatures and more intense droughts are making forests burn more easily and also because people are setting fire to forests to clear land for agriculture.

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The world’s forests are absorbing less carbon dioxide

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Source: World Resources Institute

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Note: Each bar represents annual net emissions of forests

That’s limiting the ability of many forests to store planet-warming carbon dioxide. In fact, it’s pushing parts of the Amazon rainforest, often called the lungs of the planet, to a startling tipping point. Parts of the Amazon are releasing more carbon than trees and soil are absorbing. One recent study found the same pattern in the rainforests of Australia.

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9. Corals are bleaching more often.

Since 2015, two separate global bleaching events have stretched over six years. They’re happening much more often than before, and affecting more reefs, because the oceans are heating up fast.

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Percent of the world’s coral reefs affected by each bleaching event

Corals are important because they support so many other creatures, including fish that millions of people rely on for nutrition and income. About a quarter of all marine species depend on reefs at some point in their life cycle.

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Many reefs have been ravaged, but some coral species are turning out to be more resilient to marine heat waves than we had thought. That’s good-ish news, too.

10. U.S. electricity demand is soaring, in part because of A.I.

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Power demand had always been expected to increase worldwide. More than a billion people still need access to electricity, and billions of others around the globe are buying air-conditioners and plugging in electric vehicles. But a big surprise came from the United States.

American electricity demand was pretty flat in the 2010s but is now rising significantly and is projected to climb for at least another decade. One reason: energy-hungry A.I. That raises a critical question for Big Tech: Will its A.I. ambitions heat up the planet faster?

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After two decades of slower demand growth, energy needs are rising.

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What does all this mean for the world’s 8 billion people?

The physical damage inflicted by global warming costs the global economy around $1.4 trillion a year, according to BloombergNEF.

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It means we are being forced to adapt to new conditions on a climate-altered planet. Many already are, especially the most vulnerable among us. In India, a women’s union has created a tiny new insurance plan to help workers cope when it gets dangerously hot. In China, a landscape architect has persuaded cities to create porous surfaces to let floodwaters seep in. In the United States, school playgrounds are adding shade to protect kids on exceptionally hot days. In California, an app developer created a tool to help his neighbors track the path of wildfires. In Malawi and Uganda, people are experimenting with growing different crops.

A big problem is, there’s very little money to help them, and even that has declined in the last couple of years.

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As mosquitoes go year-round in L.A., a promising fix hits a snag

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As mosquitoes go year-round in L.A., a promising fix hits a snag

Residents were supposed to get a respite from the ankle-nipping mosquitoes that fueled a recent surge in dengue fever in Los Angeles County.

Typically, the invasive mosquitoes — called Aedes aegypti — essentially disappear from winter until early May in the region.

Instead, complaints to local agencies tasked with controlling the pests spiked recently.

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“We have not seen them go away altogether like they have in previous years,” said Susanne Kluh, general manager for the Greater Los Angeles County Vector Control District.

Their unusual presence adds to the urgency of work going on in a 40-foot shipping container tucked away in Pacoima. It’s about to transform into a bustling nursery for tens of thousands of mosquitoes.

This May, the district is set for the third year in a row to release legions of sterilized male mosquitoes — which don’t bite — into parts of Sunland-Tujunga.

The last two years were promising, with the female population in two treated neighborhoods plunging by an average of more than 80%.

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Yet business owners have signaled they’re not willing to pay to expand it.

That’s thrown uncertainty into officials’ goal of eventually bringing the approach to their whole service area, spanning 36 cities and unincorporated communities.

Steve Vetrone, assistant general manager at the Greater L.A. vector district.

Steve Vetrone, assistant general manager at the Greater L.A. district.

(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)

“Unfortunately, that’s going to be a rather expensive endeavor,” said Steve Vetrone, an assistant general manager for the district. “I can tell you right now that’s not something that we can do with our current operating budget.”

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A need, an ask and a disappointing answer

Aedes aegypti are a new-ish local fixture. Native to Africa, the black-and-white striped mosquitoes were first detected in California in 2013 and landed in L.A. County the following year.

“Despite our best efforts, they’ve been able to just outpace us, and they’re now in every city and community within our district,” and all of Southern California, Vetrone said. In fact, the low-flying, day-biting mosquitoes are present in nearly half of California’s counties, including Shasta in the far north.

Desperate to find a solution, many are trying the so-called sterile insect technique — including vector control districts serving Orange and San Bernardino counties, as well as the San Gabriel Valley — and “we kind of all hope that this is going to be our silver bullet,” Kluh said.

The idea is fairly simple: unleash sterile males so that they far outnumber wild ones — say, 10 to 1 or even 100 to 1. The goal is for the altered males to mate with females, producing eggs that don’t hatch.

Kluh’s district uses X-rays to sterilize males but there are other methods, such as using genetically modified insects or ones infected with bacteria.

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White mesh boxes holding mosquitoes on shelves inside a shipping container.

Female mosquitoes are fed different types of blood — pig and cow — to see which leads to the most eggs.

(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)

The technique, while promising, requires time and money.

In California, property owners foot the bill for local mosquito (and other pest) control, with some paying an annual fee called a benefit assessment.

Levying a new fee requires approval from home, apartment and business owners, in accordance with Proposition 218.

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To unleash sterile male mosquitoes in a broader swath of the Greater L.A. district, officials are seeking up to $20 a year per single family home. That would be on top of $18.97 that homeowners now pay for the agency’s services.

Last April, the district sent out 50,000 sample ballots to property owners, asking if they’d support the increase.

Only 47% of those returned were in favor.

“Data showed that single family homeowners were pretty supportive, but fewer business owners with larger parcels and potentially higher dues did not see the benefit in the additional expense,” Kluh said in an email.

Business owners might not live in the area, but their vote — if their property spans several acres — is weighted more heavily.

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Times readers, commenting on a story from last year about the proposal, responded favorably.

“I hate mosquitos because they love me so much,” one reader said. “I would happily spend $20 to reduce their populations! I probably spend more [than] that on repellent.”

Officials haven’t given up, and plan to send out another round of sample ballots next year.

Kluh already has talking points for businesses in her back pocket: Restaurant owners should have an interest in making outdoor dining more pleasant, while apartment owners could lose revenue if their renters are sickened by an outbreak of Zika, chikungunya or yellow fever — all diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti, she said.

Making mosquitoes that can’t reproduce

On a recent tour of the Pacoima insectary, Nicolas Tremblay, a senior vector ecologist with the district, whipped out a small container filled with a handful of what looked like vitamins.

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But the clear pill cases were filled with about 6,500 mosquito eggs and bovine liver powder.

Nicolas Tremblay, senior vector ecologist, places tape on water-filled trays in the Pacoima insectary.

Nicolas Tremblay, senior vector ecologist, tapes trays to indicate pill capsules filled with mosquito eggs were placed in water.

(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)

The pills are dropped into trays of water, where the eggs hatch and the larvae feed on the powder. It takes about nine days to go from egg to buzzing adult.

The males are then chauffeured to Garden Grove, where they’re zapped with X-rays. Then they’re driven back and set free the next day.

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“It’s crazier around August, September, is when we’ll probably reach our peak production” of up to 72,000 mosquitoes a week, he said. “All these [trays] would be full of water and mosquitoes.”

In 2024, the district launched its pilot, releasing nearly 600,000 sterilized males in two Sunland-Tujunga neighborhoods over about five months.

The population of Aedes aegypti females dropped by an average of 82% compared with a control area.

The stakes became clear that year, when California reported 18 locally acquired dengue cases — a sharp rise from the first-ever cases confirmed the year before.

Last year, the pilot saw similar success, though there was also a natural drop in activity districtwide.

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On the recent visit to the insectary, several hundred mosquitoes flew around in white mesh cages, serving as participants in a study to see which blood they prefer — pig or cow.

“We haven’t completed the trials yet, but it seems like they didn’t care,” he said.

One thing scientists already know: Aedes aegypti love biting people.

A highly adaptive foe

The invasive mosquitoes can lay their eggs in tiny amounts of water. A bottle cap or crease in a potato chip bag is fair game.

What’s more, mosquitoes in the Greater L.A. district are resistant to a lot of pesticides.

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Now, there might be a new concern. Typically, the invasive mosquitoes go into a type of hibernation every year.

Kluh said it appeared that they may have mutated in a way that allows them to stay active through the winter.

A warming climate has already expanded their season and allowed them to move into formerly inhospitable regions.

Releasing sterilized males involves no pesticides, and also leverages the insect’s biology: Males in lust are adept at finding females.

Many residents are thrilled by the promising tool, but others bristle at the idea of manipulating nature.

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“There’s folks that are in favor and then there are folks that are just absolutely opposed because it’s like, ‘You’re playing God,’” Vetrone said.

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Record Heat Meets a Major Snow Drought Across the West

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Record Heat Meets a Major Snow Drought Across the West

At this point in a typical year, as the seasons officially turn from winter to spring, snowpack would still be accumulating across the Mountain West.

But this winter wasn’t typical, even before a heat wave this past week. It was the warmest on record for six Western states. Snow cover is the lowest level on record for the Colorado River Basin, and across much of the rest of the West, there are record or near-record low amounts of snow.

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That alone would create a challenging year for water managers, who rely on slow and steady snowmelt to feed streams, rivers and reservoirs and meet spring and summer demand for irrigation and drinking water. While rainfall runs off quickly and can more readily evaporate from soil, snowpack serves as a valuable and lasting source of moisture and accounts for a majority of water supplies across the region, as much as 80 percent in some areas.

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Current snowpack compared to historical averages

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The intense heat wave threatens to make water management all the more challenging.

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Much of the thin snowpack was already “ready to melt” before the heat set in, said Jon Meyer, assistant state climatologist at the Utah Climate Center. “This is the nail in the coffin.”

It’s unusual to see the whole West like this, said Leanne Lestak, an associate senior scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder who specializes in mapping snow and how much water it holds.

In early March, Ms. Lestak and her team found that vast majority of the Western United States had less than two-thirds of the amount of snow typical for this time of year, with few exceptions. In Arizona and parts of Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon, snowpack was less than a quarter of what it would usually be.

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“The situation is pretty dire,” Dr. Meyer said.

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The Cottonwood fire in Dawson County, Neb., on March 13. Nebraska State Patrol via AP

The heat wave is also increasing the already-elevated fire risk across some drought-stricken areas. In Nebraska, drought set the stage for the largest wildfire in state history, which broke out last week and has not yet been contained.

The conditions that led to this year’s low snowpack are unusual, too. Snow droughts often develop from dry weather patterns that starve the West of any significant precipitation during the winter, said Dan McEvoy, a climatologist at the Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate Center.

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But in many places, it wasn’t necessarily a dry year, he said. Instead, temperatures have been so warm that precipitation has fallen as rain, rather than snow, even at higher elevations.

Many of the mountaintops could still see some more snowfall. But as Cody Moser, a hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center in Salt Lake City, looks ahead to predicting how the spring will go, he doesn’t foresee any significant change in weather patterns. Now he’s expecting peak snowmelt flows to occur earlier than ever recorded in many locations, he said this week.

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“I think it’s highly likely we’ve seen peak snowpack,” Mr. Moser said.

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Snowpack feeding the Colorado River reaches historic lows

Source: USDA National Water and Climate Center

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Even after a winter that was the warmest on record for Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Oregon, the heat that set in across much of the West this past week was extreme. Meteorologists said they were expecting to set record highs for the month of March in many locations, and the earliest arrivals of 100-degree temperatures in records that go back more than a century.

Across the Colorado River Basin, even at elevations as high as 10,000 feet, temperatures were forecast to surge into the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit on Friday and Saturday, Mr. Moser said, some 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average.

Relatively light winds and dry air over the region could limit snowmelt to some degree, he said, but the warmth and sunshine may prevent some moisture from ever reaching stream beds, said John Fleck, a water policy expert at the University of New Mexico.

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“A lot of it is going to evaporate off before it even has a chance to hit the stream,” Mr. Fleck said.

This heat wave is so extreme that it would only be expected to occur once about every 500 years in the current climate, according to World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who study links between extreme weather events and climate change.

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“These temperatures are completely off the scale for March, and our data shows that they would be virtually impossible in a world without human-caused climate change,” said Ben Clarke, a research associate in extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London.

Ski trails in Park City, Utah, in February. Mario Tama/Getty Images

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In places like the Colorado Front Range, home to the majority of that state’s population, snowpack serves as the largest source of water. For the utility Denver Water, snowpack usually contains significantly more water than its largest surface reservoir, said Taylor Winchell, the agency’s climate adaptation program lead.

Denver Water has enough supply to handle a low-water year, but the snowpack conditions are creating “very high levels of concern,” Mr. Winchell said. The Denver Water Board is poised to officially declare Stage One drought restrictions, asking residents to significantly reduce their outdoor watering. If the snow drought were to repeat for multiple years, the problem could compound and worsen, he said.

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The snow drought occurs at a critical time for the larger Colorado River Basin. An agreement among the basin’s seven states over how to divide its water expired at the end of last year, and negotiations to develop a new water plan fell apart last month. (The states are also obligated to share a small portion of the water with Mexico.)

The snow drought is complicating that work. Snowpack from the river’s Upper Basin, across mountains of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming, accounts for a majority of the river’s natural flow each year. Declining spring precipitation and rising temperatures have caused the Colorado’s flow to decrease by nearly 20 percent over the past quarter century.

Recent forecasts estimated that inflows to Lake Powell, a key reservoir that straddles the Utah-Arizona border, will be the third-smallest on record. The lake’s surface could drop to a critical level for hydroelectric power production by the end of this year, affecting a power grid that serves seven states.

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Officials at the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the Colorado River and its reservoirs, declined to be interviewed but said in a statement they were monitoring hydrologic conditions to guide decisions about how to manage the Colorado River system.

Mr. Fleck said a crisis without precedent could be brewing. While a drought that hit the basin in 2002 was worse, it was relatively more manageable than what the West now faces: “We’re having one of the worst years in many decades, but with no cushion of reservoir storage to fall back on to bail us out.”

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New report on L.A. post-fire beach contamination finds something unexpected: good news

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New report on L.A. post-fire beach contamination finds something unexpected: good news

Researchers investigating the long-term effects of the 2025 firestorms on L.A.’s beaches have found that rarest of things: good news.

In the year following the Palisades and Eaton fires, levels of harmful metals like lead in coastal sand and seawater have remained far below California’s limits for safe drinking water and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s safety thresholds for aquatic life.

“We’re not seeing any evidence for harm in the ecosystem or harm for human health,” said Noelle Held, a University of Southern California marine biogeochemist and principal investigator for the CLEAN Waters project, which is measuring post-fire water quality.

The Palisades and Eaton fires burned more than 40,000 acres and destroyed at least 12,000 buildings, blanketing the ocean in ash for up to 100 miles offshore. Heavy rains a few weeks later washed the charred remnants of plastics, batteries, cars, chemicals and other potentially toxic material into the sea and up onto beaches via the region’s massive network of storm drains and concrete-lined rivers.

Initial testing by the nonprofit environmental group Heal the Bay in the weeks after the fires documented a spike in lead, mercury and other heavy metals in coastal waters. Concentrations of beryllium, copper, chromium, nickel and lead in particular were significantly above established safety thresholds for marine life, prompting fears for the long-term health of fish, marine mammals and the marine food chain.

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For their most recent study, Held’s team analyzed seawater samples collected along multiple locations on five different dates between Feb. 10 and Oct. 17 in 2025, along with sand collected in August.

Seawater lead concentrations were highest in the month after the fire and in October, when the season’s first major rain had just washed months’ worth of urban pollution into the ocean.

Even at their peak, lead levels barely surpassed 1 microgram per liter — well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s aquatic life safety threshold of 8.1 micrograms per liter.

While levels of iron, manganese and cobalt were higher in sampling locations near the Palisades burn scar than they were in other areas, even there they remain well below concentrations that could pose harm to human or marine life.

For beach sand collected in August, lead levels never topped 14 parts per million at any location, significantly below both the current California residential soil standard of 80 parts per million and the stricter 55 parts per million standard proposed by environmental health researchers.

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“This isn’t something we would flag if we were testing your soil in your yard,” Held said.

The recent findings are consistent with water quality tests the State Water Resources Control Board conducted earlier in 2025. A board spokesperson said those found both higher relative concentrations of metals closest to the burn scars and no overall evidence that post-fire pollution poses an ongoing threat to human health.

Yet the need for continued testing remains. Officials struggled to answer questions about post-fire beach safety in part because of a lack of historical data on pollution levels, a pitfall researchers would like to forestall before another disaster arrives.

Future rainstorms could also continue to wash metals into Will Rogers Beach and the Rustic Creek outfall, both of which are near the Palisades burn scar, CLEAN Waters warned.

“Post-fire impacts can change over time, depending on rainfalls, runoffs and sediment movements,” said Eugenia Ermacora, manager of the nonprofit Surfrider Foundation’s L.A. chapter, which has partnered with Held’s team to collect samples. “It’s not just about the fires, but it’s about urbanization and how much our city needs to continue the work of doing testing in the water.”

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