Politics
Vice President Kamala Harris, in her toughest hour, is keeping a tighter circle
Vice President Kamala Harris was marinating in a contemporary stew of commentary about her public polling that confirmed her residence state approval numbers had been nearly as dismal as her nationwide ones. Russia had simply invaded Ukraine, forcing the vice chairman to speed up her on-the-job coaching because the administration confronted a defining international coverage disaster.
It was the form of week that has grow to be routine for Harris, replete with stress and scrutiny. However for about an hour on Feb. 28, a cool and cloudy Monday, it felt just like the outdated instances, as she hosted 11 shut associates and supporters in her ceremonial workplace in a constructing subsequent to the White Home. They checked out a brand new bust of Thurgood Marshall within the nook, shared photos and hugs, and informed her to remain robust.
“After all, we addressed her as Madam Vice President, however she was Kamala to us,” mentioned Amelia Ashley-Ward, a Harris good friend who can also be the writer of the Solar-Reporter, the Bay Space Black newspaper that gave a greenhorn California politician considered one of her first massive political endorsements. “I assured her that I nonetheless had her again.”
Harris doesn’t have many moments like that anymore. Since taking workplace, the roster of confidants she depends on for recommendation and help has contracted and tilted away from her long-time residence base of California. The narrowing of her interior circle displays each the calls for of the vice presidency, which go away little time for social calls, and her personal tendency to be selective in whom she seeks counsel, in accordance with interviews with longtime associates, advisors and present and former staffers.
The change has left shut associates saying they’re glad and pleasantly shocked by her efforts to remain in contact, even when the calls are understandably much less frequent. But a few of her earliest backers warn that her outreach has been inadequate to keep up a loyal base of help and will hamper her means to make one other run on the presidency. In addition they fear that Harris, in contrast to President Biden, lacks a full steady of trusted and examined allies to information her by way of a vice presidency that has proved to be as daunting as it’s historic.
“She is form of the antithesis of how Jerry Brown was, anyone with a rolodex of fifty,000 individuals who would name Sam Nunn sooner or later and Bono the following,” mentioned Brian Brokaw, a former advisor to Harris, referring to the previous Georgia senator and the lead singer for U2.
“She’s somebody who retains a really, very tight circle,” he added. “She is aware of and counts as associates loads of influential individuals in all walks of life. She is just not one to do common check-ins. That’s not her fashion. She is usually reluctant to verify in with individuals except she’s absolutely briefed on what points that particular person would possibly care about.”
Her most frequent contacts at the moment are with a small group of Washington fingers, in addition to her husband, Doug Emhoff, and sister, Maya Harris. Her household has grow to be not only a private outlet however a conduit to associates and allies exterior the bubble of the vice presidency.
She has saved up a few of her longtime social rituals — specifically, birthday calls to childhood associates, former workers and political allies. However different communications have developed, given the safety, time and political calls for positioned on a vice chairman and the affect of COVID-19 restrictions on her means to carry gatherings.
Harris final 12 months bought her residence within the Bay Space, the place she grew up and spent most of her political profession. She and Emhoff now rely Brentwood as their residence when she is just not at her official residence in Washington’s Naval Observatory, a fortified compound that she enters and exits in a prolonged motorcade.
“If you’re president or vice chairman, your life is scripted,” mentioned Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore’s 2000 presidential marketing campaign. “There’s that small window the place you continue to wish to know what else is occurring on this planet.”
Brazile is amongst a gaggle of Washington veterans from whom Harris generally seeks steerage. She has additionally spoken with Hillary Clinton, the primary lady to win a serious celebration nomination for president, and Madeleine Albright, the primary feminine secretary of State, who died Wednesday.
Minyon Moore, who served as political director to Invoice Clinton, has emerged as an particularly shut advisor. Moore was lately chosen by the White Home to assist choose and information Supreme Court docket nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson by way of the affirmation course of.
Harris has identified Moore for greater than a dozen years, checking in together with her nearly each time she visited Washington when she served as San Francisco’s district legal professional and California legal professional normal, in accordance with a former advisor. They bonded, partially, over the shared expertise of ceaselessly being the one Black lady in a room of energy brokers.
Although Harris’ associates say she faces challenges tied to the workplace and her expertise as a politician, additionally they take it as a on condition that the vice chairman is handled extra harshly due to her race and gender. Harris is attuned to the perceived double normal, and generally grumbles privately about it. To this point, the vice chairman has avoided airing her frustrations.
“No person has to remind her she is the primary lady of coloration vice chairman,” mentioned Holly Mitchell, a Los Angeles County supervisor and former chair of the California Legislative Black Caucus. “She wakes up with that actuality and goes to mattress with that actuality on daily basis.”
In a September birthday name, Mitchell requested Harris how she was doing.
“It’s so much,” Harris replied in a sing-song quip that to Mitchell summarized the stress.
As it’s with many politicians, the difficult dynamics of family and friends may be tough for Harris. Her shut relationship together with her sister, Maya, is well-known. However it turned a tinderbox throughout her failed run for the Democratic presidential nomination, when Maya Harris was seen as a part of an influence battle over the route of the marketing campaign.
Although her sister has remained largely underneath the radar since Harris turned vice chairman, present and previous advisors say the previous stays an vital sounding board and channel to the skin world. One particular person with intimate information of Harris’ workplace mentioned the vice chairman’s sister generally speaks together with her workers; a White Home official mentioned she solely passes on messages and doesn’t suggest whose calls needs to be returned. Maya Harris didn’t return a message looking for remark.
One other issue that supporters say has hindered Harris is that her operation has markedly few longtime aides. Allies say Biden administration officers insisted she jettison aides who labored on her presidential major marketing campaign, which was marked by workers infighting and a pointy assault on Biden’s document on desegregation that left some unhealthy blood along with his interior circle.
The result’s a workers that has turned over and isn’t steeped in her political historical past or deeply acquainted with Harris’ strengths and weaknesses as a politician.
“She does want somebody that she will shut the door and say, ‘That is tousled’ or ‘That is laborious,’” mentioned one former longtime advisor. “And whenever you’re with brand-new individuals,” it’s more durable.
Harris has maintained ties with Rep. Barbara Lee, an Oakland Democrat, and Sen. Alex Padilla, the Democrat who changed her within the Senate, however has few different robust relationships on Capitol Hill. A number of Democrats within the California congressional delegation, for instance, mentioned they‘ve had little contact together with her since she took workplace. Although she shares San Francisco roots and a spot in historical past alongside Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, they aren’t particularly shut.
“Most of their conversations are operational, about one thing that’s occurring,” mentioned Drew Hamill, Pelosi’s deputy chief of workers. “There’s not lots of time for reflection on this enterprise as a result of there’s a lot incoming.”
The drift away from California might hamper Harris’ prospects of operating for president — given the state’s preeminence in Democratic fundraising and activism.
“Kamala’s grow to be vice chairman. She’s in Washington and everybody else is out right here,” mentioned Mark Buell, a Democratic donor who led fundraising for Harris’ first election as San Francisco district legal professional and in addition served as a prime cash particular person in her statewide elections. “Except Kamala has another political concepts and desires to domesticate a base, it looks like she’s fairly pleased simply being vice chairman.”
Others say Harris is correctly avoiding any look of tending to a political operation that’s distinct from Biden’s.
Figuring out the individuals most ceaselessly contacted by Harris is hard. These she calls and meets are discreet, to allow them to preserve their entry. Former contacts who lose contact may be cagey, lest individuals assume they’re not gamers.
“Anyone who publicly brags about how a lot they speak to anyone is both embellishing or not a confidant,” mentioned one former advisor who, like many others, requested anonymity to talk candidly about Harris and to keep away from sounding like a hypocrite.
Harris’ workplace made clear in an announcement that she doesn’t like her associates or acquaintances speaking out of faculty.
“The Vice President often engages together with her California colleagues, family and friends throughout the nation. These conversations are vital to the vice chairman as is their confidentiality,” spokeswoman Sabrina Singh mentioned in an announcement. (Singh, who has labored for Harris because the 2020 marketing campaign, is departing for an additional job within the administration.)
A kind of who has saved in contact is Derreck Johnson, an Oakland restaurateur who has been shut with the Harris sisters since he was 16. He has spoken by telephone with Harris, he says, 5 instances because the inauguration. Although he didn’t disclose particulars of the conversations, Johnson mentioned he worries about Harris and believed that the pressures of the job had been weighing on his longtime good friend.
“Anybody who is continually criticized whenever you’re attempting to do the appropriate factor — that’ll have an effect on anybody. It’s human nature,” he mentioned.
Johnson mentioned that he believes that when doubt creeps in, Harris turns to the boldness she gained from her late mom, Shyamala, a single father or mother who raised her whereas working as a most cancers researcher.
“You already know you’re doing this for the appropriate causes and also you rise above that,” Johnson mentioned.
However Harris hasn’t spent a lot time venting to him concerning the scrutiny she faces, which Johnson mentioned she considers to be a part of the job. Relatively, he mentioned, their calls have targeted extra on how Johnson is doing — together with his personal campaigns for native workplace in Oakland — in an effort to remain linked to a good friend and her hometown.
Politics
Political betting markets still have plenty of action despite end of election season
The end of the election season does not mean the end of political betting, with many platforms allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
“Some people will be amazed by this, but people are already betting on 2026 and 2028,” Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital. “There’s been about a quarter million dollars bet already.”
The comments come after the 2024 election produced plenty of betting action, with users across multiple platforms wagering over $2 billion on the outcome of the latest race.
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While mega sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and the recent Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, gives gamblers plenty to wager on after the election, those looking for something political to bet on will still have plenty of options.
One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Other names with a significant amount of attention for betters include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination, while Vance is trailed by names like entrepreneur and future head of the new Department of Government Efficiency Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump Jr. on the Republican side.
“The big Democratic governors are favored to be the next nominee,” Lott said, noting that Vance currently holds a sizable lead over other options on the GOP side.
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Vance is also the current betting leader on who will win the 2028 presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com shows, followed by Newson and Shapiro as the next two likely options.
However, Lott warned it is still too early to tell what the future holds, noting that the markets will start to provide more clarity as more information becomes known over the next few years.
“As the future becomes clearer… as we get closer to 2026, 2028, these odds will change,” Lott said. “So if the Trump administration is doing really well, the economy is booming, inflation is not out of control, wars are ending, Vance’s odds will certainly go up.”
Bettors also are not limited to wagering on elections, with platforms such as Polymarket allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed. Bettors can also place wagers on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024.
According to Lott, taking a look at the current betting odds for many scenarios can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself.
“People often ask… is there any value to this… it’s just gambling. It’s silly,” Lott said. “But actually it’s very useful… if you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”
Politics
As Trump’s lead in popular vote shrinks, does he really have a 'mandate'?
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, President-elect Donald Trump claimed Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
It’s a message his transition team has echoed in the last three weeks, referring to his “MAGA Mandate” and a “historic mandate for his agenda.”
But given that Trump’s lead in the popular vote has dwindled as more votes have been counted in California and other states that lean blue, there is fierce disagreement over whether most Americans really endorse his plans to overhaul government and implement sweeping change.
The latest tally from the Cook Political Report shows Trump winning 49.83% of the popular vote, with a margin of 1.55% over Vice President Kamala Harris.
If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it.
— Hans Noel, Georgetown University
The president-elect’s share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents — far below that of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, who won 61.1% of the popular vote in 1964, defeating Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater by nearly 23 percentage points.
In the last 75 years, only three presidents — John F. Kennedy in 1960, Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2000 — had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current lead.
“If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it,” said Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown University.
Trump’s commanding electoral college victory of 312 votes to Harris’ 226 is clear. And unlike in 2016, when he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote and the needed support in the electoral college.
The question is whether Trump can garner significant public support to push through his more contentious administration picks and the most radical elements of his policy agenda, such as bringing in the military to enforce mass deportations.
Democrats say that the results fall short of demonstrating majority public support for Trump and that the numbers do not give him a mandate to deviate from precedent, such as naming Cabinet members without Senate confirmation.
“There’s no mandate here,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said last week on CNN, noting Trump had suggested using “recess appointments” to get around Senate hearings and votes for his nominees. “What there certainly should not be is a blank check to appoint a chaos Cabinet.”
GOP strategist Lanhee Chen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who ran for California controller in 2022, rejects such framing by Democrats. He argues that Trump’s victory was “quite resounding,” in large part because it defied expectations.
In an election that almost all political pundits expected would be close and protracted, he reversed Democrats’ 2020 gains, won all seven battleground states and even made inroads with voters in blue states such as California. Republicans also will take control of the Senate and retain their control of the House.
“Look, if the popular vote ends up having him at 49.6% versus 50.1%, do I think it’s a meaningful difference?” Chen said. “No, I don’t.”
Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of the idea of a presidential mandate.
The first president to articulate such a concept was Andrew Jackson, the nation’s seventh president, who viewed his 1832 reelection — in which he won 54.2% of the popular vote — as a mandate to destroy the Second Bank of the United States and expand his political authority. In arguing he had the mandate of the people, Jackson deviated from the approach of previous presidents in refusing to defer to Congress on policy.
In “Myth of the Presidential Mandate,” Robert A. Dahl, a professor of political science at Yale University, argued the presidential mandate was “harmful to American public life” because it “elevates the president to an exalted position in our constitutional system at the expense of Congress.”
Even if we accept the premise of a mandate, there is little consensus on when a candidate has achieved it.
“How do we know what voters were thinking as they cast ballots?” Julia R. Azari, an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, wrote in a recent essay. “Are some elections mandates and others not? If so, how do we know? What’s the popular vote cutoff — is it a majority or more? Who decides?”
In “Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate,” she argues that it’s politicians in weak positions who typically invoke mandates. This century, she wrote, presidents have cited mandates with increasing frequency as a result of the declining status of the presidency and growing national polarization.
That’s particularly true of Trump, who has long reveled in hyperbole.
In 2016, he bragged that he’d won in a “massive landslide victory,” even though his electoral college win of 304 to Clinton’s 227 was not particularly dramatic by historic standards and he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
Four years later, he refused to accept he lost the electoral college and the popular vote to Joe Biden, falsely claiming he was the victim of voter fraud.
When Trump speaks of his supposed mandate, he is not an outlier, but is drawing from bipartisan history.
In the last four decades, no president has won the popular vote by double digits, but politicians including George W. Bush and Barack Obama have increasingly tried to justify their agendas by invoking public support.
When Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, an independent, in 1992, his failure to win a majority of votes did not stop his running mate, Al Gore, from declaring they had a “mandate for change.” Five days after Clinton was inaugurated, he announced he was creating a task force to devise a sweeping plan to provide universal healthcare.
“In my lifetime, at least,” Clinton told reporters, “there has never been so much consensus that something has to be done.” The effort ultimately failed for lack of political support.
The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.
— Karoline Leavitt, incoming White House press secretary
Four years ago, Biden also declared a “mandate for action.”
And while Biden prevailed in the electoral college 306 to 232, his share of the popular vote was 51.3%, hardly a dominant performance.
As mainstream news outlets have reported on Trump’s shrinking popular margin, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, has lashed out at the media.
“New Fake News Narrative Alert!” Leavitt posted on X, adding a red warning light emoji. “The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.”
Trump’s victory is not by any objective measure “massive or historic.” But Republicans say that news outlets have subjected him to a different standard than they apply to Democratic presidents.
After Clinton won in 1992 after 12 years of GOP presidents, some Republicans note, Time magazine put his face on its cover with the headline “Mandate for Change.”
Clinton won just 43% of the popular vote, one of the lowest shares in U.S. history.
Presidents sometimes bolster their claims of a mandate by cherry-picking polling results.
On Sunday, Trump’s transition team highlighted new polling from CBS News, claiming it showed “overwhelming support” for his “transition and agenda.”
But even though the poll indicated that 59% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the presidential transition, it did not show overwhelming or even majority support for many parts of his agenda.
For example, while Trump won strong backing for his broad immigration plan, with 57% supporting a “national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally,” the poll showed far less support — 40% — for his plan to use the military to carry out deportations.
Whatever the popular vote, the Hoover Institution’s Chen argues, Trump is in a strong position because he can count on GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
“He’s going to be able to do, from a legislative perspective, largely what he wants to do,” Chen said.
But several GOP senators have already emphasized the importance of requiring FBI background checks for Trump’s more contentious nominees.
It also appears he lacks public support for pushing through his picks without Senate approval. More than three-quarters of respondents, according to the CBS poll, believe the Senate should vote on Trump’s appointments.
Noel, the Georgetown professor, said that Trump’s rhetorical strategy aside, the president-elect might have to move past the “‘I won, so everybody get out of my way’ kind of politics” and work behind the scenes to seek common ground with moderate Republicans and maybe even some Democrats.
“In the past, people have made strong claims about mandates, but then they’ve coupled that with more cautious policymaking,” Noel said. “If Trump doesn’t do that — if he acts like he believes his own story — then we’re in a different, more Trumpian kind of place.”
Politics
Texas could bus migrants directly to ICE for deportation instead of sanctuary cities under proposed plan
Texas could implement a plan to bus migrants directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in an effort to get them processed for deportation, according to media reports.
The move would be a departure from the state’s program, part of Operation Lone Star, that has bussed thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities, a source told the New York Post. It has yet to be approved by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Abbott’s office and ICE.
“We are always going to be involved in border security so long as we’re a border state,” a Texas government source told the newspaper. “We spent a lot of taxpayer money to have the level of deterrent that we have on the border, and we can’t just walk away.”
TRUMP SAYS MEXICO WILL STOP FLOW OF MIGRANTS AFTER SPEAKING WITH MEXICAN PRESIDENT FOLLOWING TARIFF THREATS
Abbott has been especially aggressive in combating illegal immigration, bussing migrants to blue cities in an effort to bring attention to the border crisis. Under the proposed plan, buses chartered by Texas from border cities will be taken to federal detention centers to help ICE agents process migrants quickly, the Post reported.
Texas has been in a legal fight with the Biden administration over its efforts to curb illegal immigration. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that the state has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter migrants.
Officials have also offered land to the incoming Trump administration to build deportation centers to hold illegal immigrant criminals.
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“My office has identified several of our properties and is standing by ready to make this happen on Day One of the Trump presidency,” Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said during a visit to the border Tuesday.
Authorities have also warned of unaccompanied migrant children being caught near the border. On Thursday, a 10-year-old boy from El Salvador told state troopers in Maverick County, Texas, that he had been lost and left behind by a human smuggler.
The boy was holding a cellphone and crying, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted on X. The child said his parents were in the U.S.
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On Sunday, troopers encountered an unaccompanied 2-year-old girl from El Salvador holding a piece of paper with a phone number and her name. She told authorities that her parents were also in the U.S.
That morning, state troopers also encountered a group of 211 illegal immigrants in Maverick County. Among the group were 60 unaccompanied children, ages 2 to 17, and six special interest immigrants from Mali and Angola.
“Regardless of political views, it is unacceptable for any child to be exposed to dangerous criminal trafficking networks,” Olivarez wrote at the time. “With a record number of unaccompanied children and hundreds of thousands missing, there is no one ensuring the safety & security of these children except for the men & women who are on the frontlines daily.”
He noted that the “reality is that many children are exploited & trafficked, never to be heard from again.”
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