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Trump camp confident based on early voting, while Black leaders say Harris is struggling

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Trump camp confident based on early voting, while Black leaders say Harris is struggling

At a time when we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s campaign is unusually confident.

The Kamala Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, with news that late deciders are breaking her way by more than 10%. But she still casts herself as the underdog. Her “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from the water, a major public health advance, “sounds okay to me.”

Most media folks, either publicly or privately, believe Trump will win, even as the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to turn out for the VP – such as MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly back Harris.

The climax of the campaign seems built around a gaping gender gap–with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump much better among men. 

THE ‘GARBAGE’ CAMPAIGN: WHY MISTAKES AND DISTRACTIONS COULD TILT THE OUTCOME

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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for a photo finish on Election Day – though morale in one camp is evidently far higher than it is in the other. (AP)

The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the battleground states that will decide the race. Nearly half the country has already voted.

Take the crucial commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.

What’s more, just 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.

Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who appears on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much more Republican, and much more male, than last time.

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Harris needs a huge turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she’s still struggling to win over some Black men.

In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s strength is among male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris must do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.

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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me is a toss-up, remains an enigma, because it doesn’t track party registration. So the ballgame there may turn on how well Harris does in Detroit. 

The Trump camp sees similar advantages in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, where public polling is close but would be a bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election really turns on the three Blue Wall states.

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Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?

Trump in Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., on Sunday, Nov. 3. The Trump campaign appears confident of a win based on early in-person votes outnumbering mail-in ballots – which skew heavily Democratic – in key areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)

In one key state after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as saying they’re worried about warning signs in their community:

Politico: “The city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.”

Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s the bad news for Harris…

TRUMP IS ‘SURGING’ WHILE KAMALA HARRIS IS ‘COLLAPSING’: CLAY TRAVIS

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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30 percent Black turnout rate.”

Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.”

“I am worried about turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” said Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.

Harris at Detroit presser

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after delivering remarks at a church service at Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons told ABC that he is “worried about turnout” in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

A sunnier view is offered by this Politico piece, which says that public polls appear to be undercounting Harris’ support.

The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t want to tell pollsters who they’re supporting–are a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign. 

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Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.

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Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those voting for Haley in the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”

To which I say: Who the hell knows?

We’re at the point now before tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And–here comes the cliché – it all depends on turnout. Despite raising a billion bucks, if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home, that sinks her candidacy.

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The scenarios favored by the Trump team rest largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the last two cycles.

That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he’s going to win.

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Trump has Christmas message to 'Radical Left Lunatics,' tells inmates Biden granted clemency to 'GO TO HELL!'

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Trump has Christmas message to 'Radical Left Lunatics,' tells inmates Biden granted clemency to 'GO TO HELL!'

President-elect Trump dished out a fiery Christmas message on Wednesday in which he wished a “Merry Christmas” to “Radical Left Lunatics,” told the 37 prisoners whose death row sentences were recently commuted by President Biden to “GO TO HELL!,” and more.

“Merry Christmas to the Radical Left Lunatics, who are constantly trying to obstruct our Court System and our Elections, and are always going after the Great Citizens and Patriots of the United States but, in particular, their Political Opponent, ME. They know that their only chance of survival is getting pardons from a man who has absolutely no idea what he is doing,” Trump declared on Truth Social.

“Also, to the 37 most violent criminals, who killed, raped, and plundered like virtually no one before them, but were just given, incredibly, a pardon by Sleepy Joe Biden. I refuse to wish a Merry Christmas to those lucky “souls” but, instead, will say, GO TO HELL! We had the Greatest Election in the History of our Country, a bright light is now shining over the U.S.A. and, in 26 days, we will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. MERRY CHRISTMAS!” he added.

TRUMP AND BIDEN OFFER CHRISTMAS GREETINGS AS US APPROACHES TRANSFER OF POWER

President-elect Donald Trump smiles during Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center on Dec. 22, 2024 in Phoenix, Ariz.  (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

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Biden recently announced that he commuted the sentences of 37 prisoners on federal death row to life sentences without the potential for parole.

“Make no mistake: I condemn these murderers, grieve for the victims of their despicable acts, and ache for all the families who have suffered unimaginable and irreparable loss,” the president said in a statement, but noted that he is “more convinced than ever that we must stop the use of the death penalty at the federal level.” 

TRUMP PLEDGES TO BRING BACK FEDERAL EXECUTIONS AFTER BIDEN COMMUTES DEATH SENTENCES FOR 37 INMATES 

President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden speaks at the US Department of Labor in Washington, D.C., on Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (Samuel Corum/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

In a separate post, Trump declared, “Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal (where we lost 38,000 people in its building 110 years ago), always making certain that the United States puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’

He also discussed Canada, referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “Governor” of America’s northern neighbor, while suggesting that Canadian businesses would boom if the nation became a U.S. state.

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TRUMP FLOATS NHL LEGEND WAYNE GRETZKY AS CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER AMID TRUDEAU TURMOIL

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with President Joe Biden

Justin Trudeuau, prime minister of Canada, and Joe Biden, president of the United States, talk as part of the G20 Summit Rio de Janeiro 2024 at Museu de Arte Moderna on Nov. 19, 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Wagner Meier/Getty Images)

“Also, to Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada, whose Citizens’ Taxes are far too high, but if Canada was to become our 51st State, their Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other Country anywhere in the World. Likewise, to the people of Greenland, which is needed by the United States for National Security purposes and, who want the U.S. to be there, and we will!” Trump declared.

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Opinion: How press freedoms could fare under the second Trump administration

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Opinion: How press freedoms could fare under the second Trump administration

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House next year, there’s much speculation on how his second administration will affect press freedom. The short answer is that we don’t know, but prognosticators do have the benefit of an important dataset: his first term.

And, if that record is any indication, national security “leaks” to the press may be an area of tension between journalists and the new leadership at the Justice Department. If there is a chilling effect on sources coming forward with newsworthy information in the public interest, Americans will be less informed and the American government will be held less accountable.

Things have been quiet on that front for the last four years, but the first Trump administration inherited and expanded the Obama administration’s aggressive pursuit of sources who disclosed government secrets to the press.

And President-elect Trump has often decried national security leaks and called for aggressively investigating and prosecuting them.

It would be foolish for press advocates to discount the possibility of a repeat of his first term, and perhaps an escalation.

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There are several federal laws that can be read to criminalize the public disclosure of national security secrets. The most prominent is the Espionage Act of 1917, a World War I-era law that was initially used against domestic opponents of the war but applies to the act of communicating, delivering or transmitting “information relating to the national defense,” a broad term, to anyone not entitled to receive it.

In other words, if someone were to anonymously slip a manila envelope under a reporter’s door with government secrets — even secrets that the public has a clear interest in knowing, such as the warrantless domestic wiretapping by the George W. Bush administration — the Justice Department has consistently claimed the authority to investigate and prosecute the source, as well as the journalist, under the Espionage Act. There is no “public interest” defense.

Historically, it hasn’t been used that way. For about 90 years, the Espionage Act was deployed against actual spies, not journalists’ sources. There are a few exceptions — most prominently the Pentagon Papers case, in which the government launched a failed prosecution against Daniel Ellsberg and Anthony Russo — but source cases are in the single digits. And, while there were investigations involving journalists, no reporter or news outlet was ultimately prosecuted under the Espionage Act in that period.

The reason is simple. When the reporting is in the public interest, taking the leaker or journalist to court would be a “political firestorm,” as a federal appeals court judge put it in one of those few exceptions, a 1980s case involving a leak of classified photographs.

But the Bush and Obama administrations marked a shift in practice.

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Under President George W. Bush, the Justice Department brought the first Espionage Act case other than Russo against individuals outside government, who had not sworn to protect government secrets. The Bush administration also featured the Valerie Plame case, which started as a leak investigation, in which Judith Miller of the New York Times spent 85 days in jail for refusing to identify a confidential source from her reporting about the run-up to the Iraq war. And the Bush Justice Department issued a subpoena in 2008 to force the New York Times’ James Risen to identify his source in another leak case, which the Obama administration pursued until 2015.

Then the Obama administration started to bring Espionage Act prosecutions against journalists’ sources in earnest. Depending on how you count, his administration brought 10 such cases. That is more than all other presidents combined.

Trump’s first term followed that trend. The Justice Department brought eight cases against journalist sources, including two under bank secrecy laws, as well as the Julian Assange case. The Assange case is complicated, but he was charged in part under the novel and dangerous legal theory that publishing secrets is a crime.

These cases can involve secret government demands for reporters’ notes; phone, email and text records; and correspondence with sources. That kind of snooping can reveal the constellation of a journalist’s sources beyond just the investigation in question and can give the government visibility into other stories the newsroom is investigating, including stories about the government. As Miller said when facing jail time: “If journalists cannot be trusted to keep confidences, then journalists cannot function and there cannot be a free press.”

The Justice Department during Trump’s first term turbocharged Obama-era approaches. In addition to seizing years of records from reporter Ali Watkins’ phone and email providers, a Customs and Border Protection agent threatened to reveal private information unless she identified her sources. Watkins was a reporter at Politico at the time of the questioning and was at the New York Times when she learned of the records seizure.

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Then, in the early days of the Biden administration, we learned that the Justice Department in the last days of the Trump administration had authorized demands for phone and email records for eight reporters at CNN, the New York Times and the Washington Post in three separate leak investigations. It did so without notifying those outlets in advance — to give them a chance to negotiate or challenge the demands — and the CNN and New York Times demands came with a gag order preventing newsroom lawyers from even alerting the reporters that they had been targeted.

The history of leak investigations under Presidents Bush, Obama and Trump shows that the threat to the free flow of information is bipartisan and spans administrations. President Biden’s term has been a notable exception, but a reprise may be coming.

Gabe Rottman is the policy director of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press.

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Trump picks Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera for Panama ambassador

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Trump picks Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera for Panama ambassador

President-elect Trump picked Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera to serve as ambassador to Panama.

Calling the Miami-Dade County Commissioner a “fierce fighter,” Trump said that he would advance the “MAGA agenda” to the Central American country.

“Kevin is a fierce fighter for America First principles. As a Miami-Dade County Commissioner, and Vice Chairman of the International Trade Consortium, he has been instrumental in driving Economic growth, and fostering International partnerships,” Trump wrote in the Wednesday announcement. “In 2020, Kevin did an incredible job as my Florida State Director and, this year, advanced our MAGA Agenda as a Member of the RNC Platform Committee.”

“Few understand Latin American politics as well as Kevin – He will do a FANTASTIC job representing our Nation’s interests in Panama!” he said.

GET TO KNOW DONALD TRUMP’S CABINET: WHO HAS THE PRESIDENT-ELECT PICKED SO FAR?

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Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera celebrates at Beat Culture Brewery in Miami after defeating Coral Gables Commissioner Jorge Fors on Nov. 8, 2022. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

The announcement came after Trump said that Panama was “a Country that is ripping us off on the Panama Canal, far beyond their wildest dreams.”

In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump also accused Chinese soldiers of illegally operating the canal and “always making certain that the United States puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”

Trump speaks behind a microphone wearing a blue suit, white shirt and red tie

President-elect Trump on Wednesday nominated Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera to serve as ambassador to Panama. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

In a statement on X, Cabrera thanked Trump for the nomination.

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“I’m humbled and honored by your nomination to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to Panama,” he wrote. “Let’s get to work!”

Trump signs street sign

President-elect Trump was honored on Tuesday with a street renamed after him in Miami-Dade County, Florida. (X/@KMCabreraFL)

Cabrera won his county election two years ago following an endorsement by Trump. 

He also served as the Florida state director for Trump’s 2020 campaign and was a member of the RNC Platform Committee.

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