Politics
Trump and Biden both say they’re tough on China. But whom would Beijing prefer to deal with?
No matter who wins the U.S. election in November, for China it’s lose-lose.
With mistrust between the two nations deepening, both President Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump have sought to cast themselves as hard-line negotiators who will stand tough against China’s rise.
And with both candidates vying to prove their mettle on dealing with China, experts are divided on which would ultimately harm Beijing’s interests more.
There’s no best-case scenario. There’s only the bad scenario and worse scenario
— Yun Sun, China expert
“There’s no best-case scenario. There’s only the bad scenario and worse scenario,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Biden has proved himself to be the more predictable president, which appeals to China’s penchant for stability. But steadier leadership in Washington could bolster its partnerships in the Asia-Pacific, at a time when Beijing feels increasingly penned in by U.S. allies such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines.
President Biden meets virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2021.
(Susan Walsh / Associated Press)
As the more capricious politician, Trump might undermine such alliances, providing a vacuum for Beijing to step in and strengthen ties with U.S.-friendly nations. However, his impulsive tendencies could trigger a rapid deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States.
“With the Biden administration, the Chinese side is concerned with the long-term power play,” said Minghao Zhao, deputy director for the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “If we have a Trump presidency, we have to be worried about more turbulence.”
The Biden administration has made some efforts to improve frayed ties with China. In November, Biden and President Xi Jinping met in Silicon Valley and agreed to restart military-to-military communications, which China suspended in retaliation for then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. Analysts said the pact was critical in preventing flare-ups from becoming broader conflicts.
“For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option,” Xi said.
Still, sticking points remain.
When Biden was asked if he trusted Xi, he invoked an old Russian adage popularized by President Reagan during the Cold War: “Trust but verify.”
The current administration’s focus on Chinese “overcapacity” in metals and electric cars signals more sparring over technology and trade and China’s impact on U.S. industries.
Last week, Biden called for the tripling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China to combat what he described as “unfair trade practices,” and a flood of cheap, low-quality products that have distorted the U.S. market.
The latest initiative builds upon the trade war that Trump launched in 2018, implementing 25% duties on billions of dollars of imports from China, such as cars, metals and machinery. In February, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% or more if he became president again.
U.S. officials also have become more wary of Chinese software and the security risks it poses for U.S. users. On Wednesday, Biden signed into law a measure that would either ban or force a sale of the Chinese-owned short video app TikTok.
That same bill included about $8 billion in security assistance for Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory. The sovereignty of the self-ruled island is a particularly contentious impasse in U.S.-China relations, as Washington has strengthened ties with Taiwanese officials and China has increased military aggression.
China said it opposed the aid allocated for Taiwan and has accused the U.S. of enabling the island democracy to pursue formal independence. Biden has said publicly that the U.S. would send military assistance to Taiwan if China attacked, but the administration has clarified that U.S. policy has not changed — that the United States acknowledges Beijing’s claim to the island but does not endorse it.
The U.S. has warned China against providing aid to Russia in its war with Ukraine, and has considered sanctioning Chinese banks to deter support, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is expected to discuss Ukraine among other disputes during a visit to China this week, and issued a warning ahead of his arrival.
“If China purports on the one hand to want good relations with Europe and other countries, it can’t on the other hand be fueling what is the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War,” Blinken said Friday.
China said the U.S. was making “groundless accusations.” It also objected in a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization to recent U.S. legislation offering subsidies to incentivize domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles.
During the last election, some analysts had predicted that Biden would be softer on China compared with Trump. This time, it’s clear that neither candidate is likely to reverse a decade-long hardening against China, said Ho-fung Hung, a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University.
That shift began with President Obama’s efforts to establish stronger economic and diplomatic ties in Asia, spurred by growing unease with Beijing’s military assertiveness, as well as complaints that Chinese competitors were unfairly squeezing out U.S. companies, Hung said.
Now, “the only difference between different presidents would be the details and approaches of how they implement the toughening policy,” he said.
Then-President Trump speaks as China’s President Xi Jinping, far left, listens during a bilateral meeting at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires in 2018.
(Pablo Martinez Monsivais / Associated Press)
Both candidates have a history of angering China with public remarks. After their November meeting, Biden again referred to Xi as a dictator. And while Trump has been quicker to praise Xi, he maligned China during the outbreak of COVID-19, which he insistently referred to as the “Chinese virus.”
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said that stronger anti-China rhetoric among Republicans may inevitably beget harsher China policies under Trump.
“They’re being so tough on China, it might be difficult for them to climb down,” he said.
But Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said that since Trump doesn’t adhere to political conventions, Beijing may see more opportunity to negotiate with the former real estate mogul.
“Since Biden is tough anyway, it may be worth the risk to roll the dice and see what Trump might bring,” Chong said.
Some reports on Chinese disinformation campaigns also indicate a potential preference for a Trump presidency.
An April report from the London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a research organization, identified a network of Chinese government-linked social media accounts impersonating Trump supporters and propagating criticisms of Biden.
However, academics said attempts to spread information by Chinese actors are probably more geared toward sowing doubt in democracy and America rather than directly targeting Trump or Biden.
“I think they are more interested in showing that democratic elections are not an effective system,” Sun from the Stimson Center said. “In that sense, undermining credibility is more important for China than undermining a specific candidate.”
Commentators from Chinese state and social media have criticized both candidates as indicative of the flaws of democracy and America’s decline. An April commentary from China’s official state news agency said money, rather than voters, would ultimately decide the next U.S. president.
Sima Nan, a Chinese television pundit, said in a video on Chinese social media last year that a race between Biden and Trump would be a difficult choice — like picking between spoiled Coke or spoiled Pepsi.
Special correspondent Xin-yun Wu in Taipei contributed to this report.
Politics
EXCLUSIVE: ICE says El Paso detention facility will stay open under new contractor after $1.2B deal scrapped
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EXCLUSIVE: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said Camp East Montana in El Paso, Texas will remain open and is undergoing an operational upgrade, Fox News Digital has learned.
“Camp East Montana is NOT closing, quite the opposite,” an ICE spokesperson exclusively told Fox News Digital Tuesday.
“Rather, ICE has contracted with a new provider following Secretary Noem’s termination of the old contract inherited from the Department of War. ICE is always looking at ways to improve our detention facilities to ensure we are providing the best care to illegal aliens in our custody.”
Camp East Montana is photographed Friday, March 6, 2026, in El Paso, Texas. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The spokesperson said the new contract will allow the facility to maintain what the agency described as the “highest detention standards” while expanding oversight.
According to ICE, the new contractor will also provide increased on-site medical care, additional staffing and a “PRECISE quality assurance surveillance plan.”
The agency said the updated agreement also strengthens ICE’s direct oversight of operations at the El Paso-area facility.
“Far from closing, Camp East Montana is upgrading,” the spokesperson said.
El Paso immigration facility faces scrutiny but ICE says Camp East Montana is upgrading, not closing, after the $1.2 billion contract termination. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The news that the facility will remain open comes after The Washington Post reported that the facility could face closure amid scrutiny over operations.
A document was distributed to ICE staff, the Post reports, indicated that the agency was drafting a letter to terminate the facility’s $1.2 billion contract at an unspecified date.
ICE officials, however, characterized the contract termination as a deliberate effort by Noem to raise standards and improve services.
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Camp East Montana is photographed Friday, March 6, 2026, in El Paso, Texas, as a bus enters the detention center. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The facility, located at Fort Bliss in Texas, has been used to house thousands of detainees as part of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.
ICE did not immediately provide details on the identity of the new contractor or the timeline for full implementation.
WASHINGTON — Russia is emerging as one of the few early economic beneficiaries of the war with Iran, as disruptions to energy infrastructure drive up demand for Russian exports and the world casts its gaze to the Middle East and away from Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
The U.S. and its European counterparts slapped severe sanctions on Russia in March 2022, barely a month into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The effect was a stranglehold on Russia’s exports, depriving Putin’s war effort of at least $500 billion, experts say. But over the last week, as President Trump’s war in the Middle East choked energy markets worldwide, the White House began easing its restrictions on Moscow.
“It is traitorous conduct for you to help Russia,” California Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance) said on X, demanding the Trump administration reverse course. “Russia is giving intelligence info to Iran that helps Iran target American forces.”
Crude droplets rained over Tehran after Israeli airstrikes decimated oil depots, draping the Iranian capital in a dense smog. Iranian counterattacks have also targeted refineries and oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Crude oil prices have surged, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but ceased, sending energy importers in search of alternate sources.
Those spikes are giving Russia, one of the world’s largest oil and gas exporters, a rare advantage. After spending a decade as the world’s most sanctioned nation over his aggression in Ukraine, Putin is finally starting to regain some leverage in global markets.
“In the current economic situation, if we refocus now on those markets that need increased supplies, we can gain a foothold there,” Putin said at a meeting at the Kremlin on Monday, according to Russian state media. “It’s important for Russian energy companies to take advantage of the current situation.”
On March 4, the Treasury Department issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. The appeal by the Trump administration was described as a way to ease demand for Mideast oil, but was criticized as a reversal of sanctions placed against Putin meant to deny him the capital needed to fund his occupation of eastern Ukraine.
Now, Moscow is poised to press that advantage further, after Trump said Monday he will further lift sanctions on oil-producing countries to ease the trade friction and reintroduce additional oil and gas supplies. The only countries with U.S. oil sanctions are Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
“So, we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump said at a news conference at his golf club in Doral, Fla. “Then, who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on — they’ll be so much peace.”
The surprise concession to Moscow comes as reports suggest Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. personnel.
Trump’s announcement followed an unscheduled hourlong call with Putin about the situation in the Middle East.
The war has also set the stage for Russia to make gains in Ukraine, as hostilities draw the global spotlight away from Kyiv and its struggle to hold back the bigger Russian army. U.S.-brokered talks between the two adversaries have been sidelined as Washington shifts focus to its war in Iran.
“At the moment, the partners’ priority and all attention are focused on the situation around Iran,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X. “We see that the Russians are now trying to manipulate the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region to the benefit of their aggression.”
Putin is unlikely to intervene militarily on Iran’s behalf, according to Robert English, an international foreign policy expert at USC. Instead, Putin is expected to play his position carefully, reap the economic rewards, and keep focused firmly on Ukraine at a time when key air defense systems are diverted from Ukraine to the Persian Gulf.
“Russia is winning the Iran-U.S.-Israel war, at least so far. Oil and natural gas prices have soared, filling Putin’s Ukraine war chest,” he said. “Russia is gathering forces for a big spring offensive in Eastern Ukraine, and it’s not even front-page news.”
Ukraine has dispatched drone interceptors and ordered its anti-drone experts to pivot from their war with Russia to help Western allies help intercept Iranian attacks. Zelensky’s allegiance may not pay off, English said.
“When will Ukraine see the benefits of helping the U.S. with anti-drone technology? No time soon, apparently,” he said.
Even several weeks of interruption in Gulf energy supplies could bring the largest windfall to Russia, the Associated Press reported, citing energy analysts.
The economic turmoil caused by the war has exposed vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy system, particularly its lingering dependence on Russian fuel.
Despite sanctions, the European Union remains a major purchaser of Russian natural gas and crude oil. Russian gas accounted for approximately 19% of E.U. gas imports in 2025. Allied Europeans have agreed to completely stop importing Russian liquefied natural gas, oil and pipeline gas by late 2027.
Putin expressed no desire Monday to rescue the European market now that U.S.-Israeli escalations and Iranian retaliation have choked oil production and shipping. The Russian president instead proposed to divert volumes away from the European market “to more promising areas” like the Asia-Pacific region, Slovakia and Hungary, which he said were “reliable counterparties.”
European leaders have been criticized for being “stunned, sidelined, and disunited” since hostilities began in late February. Excluded from the initial military planning by the U.S. and Israel, Europe entered the conflict with gas storage at only 30% capacity, the lowest levels in years. Instead of bold action, English said, European leaders have quarreled over internal divisions and rivalries.
“Sky-high energy prices are the underlying cause of many of these frictions, as Europe struggles now more than ever to find affordable alternatives to the cheap Russian petroleum,” English said.
Antonio Costa, president of the European Council, told European leaders in Brussels on Tuesday that rising energy prices and the world’s shifting attention risk strengthening the Kremlin at a critical moment in the war in Ukraine.
“So far, there is only one winner in this war,” Costa said. “Russia.”
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President Donald Trump is taking his feud with Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., to the libertarian lawmaker’s home turf on Wednesday.
Trump is expected to hold an event in Hebron, Kentucky, on Wednesday, the Republican Party of Kentucky announced on social media Monday. It’s located in the northern part of the state’s 4th Congressional District, which Massie represents.
Massie’s primary rival, Ed Gallrein, will attend the Hebron event, his campaign confirmed to Fox News Digital on Tuesday, while deferring all other questions on the matter to the White House.
Massie himself will miss the event due to a previously scheduled official engagement, his spokesperson told Fox News Digital.
KHANNA AND MASSIE THREATEN TO FORCE A VOTE ON IRAN AS PROSPECT OF US ATTACK LOOMS
President Donald Trump will be visiting Rep. Thomas Massie’s congressional district on Wednesday. (Win McNamee/Getty Images; Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
When asked about the visit, White House spokeswoman Liz Huston told Fox News Digital, “President Trump will visit the great states of Ohio and Kentucky on Wednesday to tout his economic victories and detail his Administration’s aggressive, ongoing efforts to lower prices and make America more affordable.”
The president has thrown his considerable influence behind Gallrein to unseat Massie after the GOP lawmaker publicly defied Trump on multiple occasions.
MASSIE, KHANNA TO VISIT DOJ TO REVIEW UNREDACTED EPSTEIN FILES
Massie most recently was one of two House Republicans to vote to stop Trump’s joint operation in Iran with Israel, though the legislation was successfully blocked by the majority of GOP lawmakers and a handful of Democrats.
Ed Gallrein, left, seen with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House. (Ed Gallrein congressional campaign)
He was also one of two Republicans to vote against Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” last year.
Trump in turn has hurled a slew of personal attacks against Massie, including calling him “weak and pathetic” in a statement endorsing Gallrein in October.
“He only votes against the Republican Party, making life very easy for the Radical Left. Unlike ‘lightweight’ Massie, a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly, CAPTAIN ED GALLREIN IS A WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN,” Trump posted on Truth Social at the time, one of numerous criticisms targeting the Kentucky Republican through the years.
He called Massie the “worst Republican congressman” in July amid Massie’s bipartisan push to force the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release its files on Jeffrey Epstein.
Then-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, and Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat from California, during a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
But Massie has so far appeared to defy political gravity despite making political enemies out of both Trump and House GOP leaders.
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He handily defeated multiple primary challengers in 2024 and 2022, despite public feuds with Trump, and has served his district since 2012.
Gallrein is a retired Navy SEAL and farmer who launched his campaign days after Trump made his endorsement. Their primary election day is May 19.
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