Politics

Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

Published

4 months ago

September 8, 2024

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Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

• Interviewers spoke with 1,695 registered voters across the country from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed nearly 194,000 calls to nearly 104,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The poll’s margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 registered voters nationwide, including 1,374 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for registered voters. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for registered voters.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 15 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 23 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Census tract educational attainment

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.38 for the likely electorate and 1.21 for registered voters. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.43 for the likely electorate and 1.26 for registered voters.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Politics

Elon Musk sued by SEC over late 2022 disclosure of Twitter stake

Published

19 minutes ago

January 14, 2025

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Elon Musk sued by SEC over late 2022 disclosure of Twitter stake

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Elon Musk on Tuesday, alleging failure to timely disclose that he bought more than 5% of Twitter’s stock in 2022 before he took over the social media company.

The lawsuit, filed in a federal court in Washington, accuses Musk — tapped by Trump to co-head a so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” — of violating federal securities law because of the late disclosure.

The litigation underscores the longstanding tension between Musk, who backed President-elect Donald Trump, and the U.S. government. The eccentric billionaire has clashed with the SEC before, including over what the agency described as false and misleading statements he had posted on Twitter about taking his other company, Tesla, private.

A federal jury in San Francisco in Feb. 2023 cleared Musk of claims by Tesla investors that he defrauded them.

Under federal law, Musk was required to disclose his stake in Twitter 10 days after he acquired more than 5% of Twitter’s stock in March 2022, according to the lawsuit.

Instead, Musk disclosed his stake in Twitter in April 2022, 11 days after the regulatory deadline. By then, the billionaire had bought more 9% of Twitter’s stock. Twitter’s stock jumped more than 27% over its previous day’s closing price after Musk made the disclosure.

“As a result, Musk was able to continue purchasing shares at artificially low prices, allowing him to underpay by at least $150 million for shares he purchased after his beneficial ownership report was due,” the lawsuit states.

The action also harmed investors who didn’t know about Musk’s stake and ended up selling their Twitter shares at low prices, the SEC alleges.

Alex Spiro, Musk’s lawyer, said in a statement that “Mr. Musk has done nothing wrong and everyone sees this sham for what it is.” He accused the SEC of engaging in a “multi-year campaign of harassment” against the billionaire that “culminated in the filing of a single-count ticky tak complaint” against him.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler is stepping down Jan. 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration. In December, Trump said he would nominate Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, to lead the securities regulator.

Musk’s big stake in Twitter was an early sign in 2022 that he might buy the company, which was struggling to attract ad dollars and compete with larger social networks such as Facebook.

After trying to back out of buying the social media company for $44 billion, he completed his acquisition of Twitter in October 2022. Musk, who renamed Twitter to X and took the company private, said he bought the platform to promote free speech.

Politics

Michelle Obama Will Skip Trump’s Inauguration

Published

7 hours ago

January 14, 2025

Press Room

Michelle Obama Will Skip Trump’s Inauguration

Michelle Obama, the former first lady, will not attend the inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump, her office said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Former President Barack Obama is confirmed to attend the 60th Inaugural Ceremonies,” the statement said. “Former First Lady Michelle Obama will not attend the upcoming inauguration.”

The statement did not provide an explanation for why Mrs. Obama was skipping the inauguration, which is traditionally attended by former presidents and their spouses. But it is the second high-profile event in the past two weeks that she has declined to take part in that would have brought her face-to-face with Mr. Trump.

Mrs. Obama has expressed personal disdain for the president-elect, who pushed the lie that her husband was not a U.S. citizen and has a history of making racist and sexist statements.

“For years, Donald Trump did everything in his power to try to make people fear us,” she said during her speech at the Democratic National Convention in August.

“See, his limited, narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hard-working, highly educated, successful people who happen to be Black,” she added.

Mrs. Obama did not accompany her husband to the funeral of former president Jimmy Carter last week, which every other living former president and first lady attended. Mrs. Obama’s absence at Mr. Carter’s funeral was attributed to a scheduling conflict, but it was notable that by protocol, she would have been seated next to Mr. Trump, who engaged Mr. Obama in a conversation during the ceremony.

The Obamas, who served as surrogates for Vice President Kamala Harris on the campaign trail, issued a statement shortly after the election congratulating Mr. Trump on his victory.

“This is obviously not the outcome we had hoped for, given our profound disagreements with the Republican ticket on a whole host of issues,” the statement said. “But living in a democracy is about recognizing that our point of view won’t always win out, and being willing to accept the peaceful transfer of power.”

Mrs. Obama is not the first to buck the tradition of former first families attending an inauguration. Mr. Trump and the former first lady, Melania Trump, did not attend President Biden’s inauguration in 2021, after Mr. Trump falsely claimed that the election was stolen from him.

Politics

The top 5 moments from Pete Hegseth's Senate confirmation hearing

Published

8 hours ago

January 14, 2025

Press Room

The top 5 moments from Pete Hegseth's Senate confirmation hearing

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, faced a Senate grilling on Tuesday as lawmakers determine whether they will vote in support of the nominee.

Hegseth faced intense questioning from Democrats in his Armed Services Committee hearing, including regarding his previous comments related to women serving in military combat roles, and was also interrupted by protesters who disturbed the hearing at some points.

Trump nominated Hegseth back in November, just days after his decisive election win over Vice President Kamala Harris, lauding him “as a Warrior for the Troops, and for the Country.”

After Hegseth wrapped up his hours-long hearing, Fox News Digital compiled the top five moments.

PETE HEGSETH DELIVERS OPENING STATEMENT AT SENATE CONFIRMATION HEARING

Hegseth’s emotional opening remarks

Hegseth became emotional during his opening remarks on Tuesday morning while thanking his wife and other family members for supporting him through the nomination process.

“Thank you to my incredible wife, Jennifer, who has changed my life and been with me throughout this entire process. I love you, sweetheart, and I thank God for you,” he said, beginning to choke up.

“And as Jenny and I pray together every morning, all glory, regardless of the outcome, belongs to our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ,” he said. “His grace and mercy abounds each day. May His will be done.”

HEGSETH WAS ‘INCREDIBLY TALENTED, BATTLE-PROVEN LEADER,’ MILITARY EVALUATIONS SHOW

Hegseth, a former Fox News host, married his wife Jennifer in 2013, with the couple sharing a blended family of seven children.

“Thank you to my father, Brian and Mother Penny, as well as our entire family, including our seven wonderful kids: Gunner, Jackson, Peter Boone, Kensington, Luke, Rex…Gwendolyn, their future safety and security is in all of our hands,” he said.

Sen. Hirono claims Hegseth would lead a military invasion of Greenland if confirmed

Democratic Hawaii Sen. Mazie Hirono was slammed on social media Tuesday during the hearing for asking Hegseth if he would lead a military invasion of Greenland if confirmed as the secretary of defense.

“[The] President elect has attacked our allies in recent weeks, refusing to rule out using military force to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal and threatening to take to make Canada the 51st state. Would you carry out an order from President Trump to seize Greenland, a territory of our NATO ally Denmark, by force? Or would you comply with an order to take over the Panama Canal?” Hirono asked on Tuesday.

WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – JUNE 4:Senator Mazie Hirono (D-HI) participates in a news conference following weekly policy luncheons in Washington, DC on June 4, 2024. (Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Nathan Posner)

Trump has said in recent weeks that he hopes to purchase Greenland from Denmark, referred to Canada as the U.S.’s “51st state” and outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Canada’s “governor,” and has also vowed to”demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America in full, quickly and without question.”

DEM SENATOR’S ‘LIES AND STUPIDITY’ AT HEGSETH HEARING ROASTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA: ‘CLOWN SHOW’

Hegseth brushed off Hirono’s question during the hearing, saying, “Trump never strategically tips his hand.”

“I would never publicly state one way or another to direct the orders of the president,” Hegseth responded.

Viewers of the exchange erupted on social media following Hirono’s question, including labeling her the “least intelligent Member of Congress” and others calling the grilling a “clown show.”

“Hirono was playing judge, jury, and executioner based on lies and stupidity,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., wrote in a post on X.

Hearing erupts into protests

Hegseth’s opening remarks during the hearing were interrupted by a handful of protesters, as they shouted at the nominee about the war in Israel, and called him both a “Christian Zionist” and a “misogynist.”

“Veterans are committing suicide and are homeless, but we send money to bomb children in Gaza,” one female protester wearing fatigues shouted as she was escorted from the hearing, Fox News Digital video shows.

At least three protesters were seen being hauled out of the hearing in zipties or with their hands behind their backs.

“You are a misogynist,” one protester shouted at Hegseth.

HEGSETH INTERRUPTED BY MULTIPLE PROTESTERS DURING SENATE CONFIRMATION HEARING

“Thank you for figuratively and literally having my back,” Hegseth said after he was interrupted, returning to his opening statement. “I pledge to do the same for all of you.”

Hegseth protester with pro-Palestinian T-shirt under fatigues

US Capitol Police officers remove a demonstrator during a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. Pete Hegseth, US secretary of defense nominee for US President-elect Donald Trump, is portraying his lack of high-level management experience as an asset, saying in prepared testimony for his confirmation hearing that he’d be a “change agent” with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Getty Images)

Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., asked Hegseth about the protesters during his hearing, including regarding the war in Israel that has been ongoing since 2023.

“Another protester, and I think this one was a member of Code Pink, which, by the way, is a Chinese communist front group these days, said that you support Israel’s war in Gaza. I support Israel’s existential war in Gaza. I assume, like me and President Trump, you support that war as well,” Cotton said.

Protester being taken out of hearing by police

“I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas,” Hegseth responded.

“And the third protester said something about 20 years of genocide. I assume that’s our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you think our troops are committing genocide in Iraq and Afghanistan?” Cotton continued.

Protester escorted from Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing to serve as secretary of defense. (Fox Digital )

“Senator, I do not. I think … our troops, as you know, as so many in this committee know, did the best they could with what they had. … And tragically, the outcome we saw in Afghanistan under the Biden administration put a stain on that, but it doesn’t put a stain on what those men and women did in uniform, as you know full well, Senator,” Hegseth responded.

PETE HEGSETH HEADS TO CAPITOL HILL FOR FIERY HEARING ON HIS RECORD, PLANS TO SHAKE UP PENTAGON

Hegseth repeatedly grilled on support of women in combat roles

The nominee was repeatedly grilled by senators regarding his previous comments on women serving in combat roles, including by Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Joni Ernst.

“You say we need moms, but not in the military, especially in combat units. So specific to Senator Cotton’s question, because Senator Cotton was giving you layups to differentiate between different types of combat. Specifically as secretary, would you take any action to reinstitute the combat arms exclusion for female service members knowing full well you have hundreds of women doing that job right now,” Gillibrand asked.

Her question referred to Hegseth’s 2024 book, which states: “Dads push us to take risks. Moms put the training wheels on our bikes. We need moms. But not in the military, especially not in combat units.”

WASHINGTON – MARCH 15: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., leaves the Senate Democrats lunch in the Mansfield Room in the Capitol on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. ( (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images))

Hegseth pushed back that his argument related to women serving in the military focuses on military standards not eroding.

“Senator, I appreciate your comments. And I would point out I’ve never disparaged women serving in the military. I respect every single female service member that has put on the uniform, past and present. My critiques, senator, recently and in the past, and from personal experience, have been instances where I’ve seen standards lowered,” he responded.

PETE HEGSETH SAYS HE HASN’T HEARD FROM WEST POINT SINCE EMPLOYEE ‘ERROR’ DENYING HIS ACCEPTANCE

Ernst, a veteran and Republican who initially did not initially publicly support Hegseth’s nomination, also questioned the nominee’s views on women in the military, saying he had a platform to make his opinions “very clear.”

“I want to know, again, let’s make it very clear for everyone here today, as secretary of defense, will you support women continuing to have the opportunity to serve in combat roles?” Ernst asked.

Hegseth at hearing table motioning to audience behind him

Pete Hegseth, military analyst at Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. and US secretary of defense nominee for US President-elect Donald Trump, during a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. Hegseth is portraying his lack of high-level management experience as an asset, saying in prepared testimony for his confirmation hearing that he’d be a “change agent” with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Kent Nishimura)

Hegseth again redirected the conversation back to his concerns over ensuring military standards remain high.

“Senator, first of all, thank you for your service. As we discussed extensively as well, and my answer is yes, exactly the way that you caveated it. Yes, women will have access to ground combat roles, combat roles given the standards remain high, and we’ll have a review to ensure the standards have not been eroded,” Hegseth responded.

Ernst also pressed Hegseth on what efforts he would take to combat sexual assault within the ranks, noting it is one of her top three concerns surrounding the military.

GOP SENATOR FLIPS SCRIPT ON DEMS FOR ‘HYPOCRITICAL’ GRILLING OF HEGSETH: ‘SO RIDICULOUS’

“A priority of mine has been combating sexual assault in the military and making sure that all of our service members are treated with dignity and respect. This has been so important. Senator Gillibrand and I have worked on this, and we were able to get changes made to the uniform code of military justice to make sure that we have improvements, and on how we address the tragic and life altering, issues of rape, sexual assault. It will demand time and attention from the Pentagon under your watch, if you are confirmed,” Ernst said.

“So, as secretary of Defense, will you appoint a senior level official dedicated to sexual assault prevention and response?” she asked.

Hegseth said that, as they had previously discussed, he would appoint an official to such a role.

Dem Sen. Kaine grills SecDef nominee over infidelity in front of young daughter

U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) speaks with reportersREUTERS/Leah Millis

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., hit Hegseth with a handful of personal questions, including the timing of his extramarital affairs, while Hegseth’s seven-year-old daughter sat feet away during the hearing.

“I want to return to the incident that you referenced a minute ago that occurred in Monterey, California, in October 2017. At that time, you were still married to your second wife, correct?” Kaine asked, referring to a 2017 accusation of sexual assault against Hegseth. The nominee was investigated and cleared of wrongdoing.

“I believe so,” Hegseth responded.

“And you had just fathered a child by a woman who would later become your third wife,” Kaine pressed. Hegseth has been married three times.

“Senator, I was falsely charged, and I fully investigated and completely cleared,” Hegseth said.

Kaine shot back: “So you think you are completely cleared because you committed no crime? That’s your definition of cleared?”

“You had just fathered a child two months before by a woman that was not your wife,” he continued, before citing Hegseth’s daughter was in the crowd. “I am shocked that you would stand here and say you are completely cleared. Can you so casually cheat on a second wife and cheat on the mother of a child who had been born two months before?”

“Senator, her child’s name is Gwendolyn Hope Hegseth, and she’s a child of God,” Hegseth responded.

“She’s seven years old, and I am glad she’s here,” he added.

Fox News Digital’s Andrew Mark Miller, Aubrie Spady and Breanne Deppisch contributed to this report.