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Six Questions We Asked 65 Democratic Convention Attendees

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Six Questions We Asked 65 Democratic Convention Attendees

With the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week, we spoke with 65 party members, leaders and legislators, all attending the convention as delegates or alternates, to gauge their enthusiasm and opinions going into the election.

We talked to them about their views on Kamala Harris, the issues that drive them, what they’ve seen change, formative political moments, their favorite Democrats and who they think represents the future of the party.

1/6

How would you describe your feelings or level of enthusiasm about Kamala Harris as the nominee?

Nearly all the delegates surveyed — from self-described moderates to progressives — were very enthusiastic about Ms. Harris’s nomination. Many said that they felt she was the right candidate for the moment and that they had seen a spike in engagement within their local parties, especially among young people.

“I am so excited, I am tired now from my excitement.”

Pat Spearman,
69, Nevada
state legislator and minister

Tim Drea

“I’m not trying to be corny or anything here. She just seems to be the person for the moment that we need when it comes to so many issues facing American families today.”

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Tim Drea,
66, Illinois
president of the Illinois A.F.L.-C.I.O.

Crystal LaGrone

“Our country doesn’t have the best reputation for elevating women and elevating minorities. So I was a little scared. But then the young people in my life started texting me — my kids, my nieces and my cousins.”

Crystal LaGrone,
51, Oklahoma
I.T. professional

Sam Skardon, the chair of his county party in Charleston, S.C., recalled the early hours of Ms. Harris’s candidacy: “We took a vote in that first meeting, that night that the president withdrew, on whether to endorse Vice President Harris as a delegation. I believe the vote was 58 to 4,” he said. “It’s a testament to her and her strength and her leadership that she consolidated the party so quickly.”

Many delegates said they were inspired by the potential of electing a Black and Asian American woman and talked about what that representation meant for them and their communities.

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Kavya Nair

“I never thought the president would have an Indian name. It’s so special.”

Kavya Nair,
19, Minnesota
student

Shawnté Rothschild

“All of the people that look like me making a difference, it makes me want to work harder. It makes me realize that hey, the American dream does include me.”

Shawnté Rothschild,
46, Arizona
pharmaceutical manager

Just a handful of delegates surveyed provided caveats to their excitement, saying that they needed to see Ms. Harris take a stronger position on ending the war in Gaza.

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In addition to thousands of protesters outside the convention, a small number of convention delegates plan to remain “uncommitted” — representing Democratic primary voters who cast uncommitted ballots to protest President Biden’s Israel policy.

Inga Gibson

“I do not want another Trump presidency, another disastrous Trump presidency. None of us who are uncommitted want that. But we need to see more from Harris.”

Inga Gibson,
52, Hawaii
policy consultant

June Rose

“In order for me to be enthusiastic about her candidacy, I need to hear from her that she will both support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo.”

June Rose,
29, Rhode Island
chief of staff for city council

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Delegates were chosen before President Biden stepped down from the race and endorsed Vice President Harris. Many praised Mr. Biden’s legislative accomplishments and his sacrifice in stepping down.

“History is littered with examples of powerful men clinging to power even when they know they are going to lose,” said Taylor Sappington, a 32-year-old delegate from Ohio. He added that Mr. Biden’s actions felt liberating in a “pessimistic, hate-filled era of politics.”

2/6

Is there a particular issue that drives you toward or excites you about the Democratic Party right now?

Forty percent of respondents, across ages and genders, said that reproductive rights was a motivating issue for them. They expressed fear and disbelief over the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade and described how the ruling had affected them personally.

Lenora Sorola-Pohlman

“My grandchildren, granddaughters, will not have the same rights as I had growing up, so that’s my biggest concern right now.”

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Lenora Sorola-Pohlman,
69, Texas
business owner

Karmyn Seaberg

“I told my husband, this is the hill I choose to die on. This is worth fighting for.”

Karmyn Seaberg,
66, Texas
retired registered nurse

In 2019, Robert Kahne and his wife made the decision to terminate her pregnancy after discovering at 20 weeks that their fetus had a fatal anomaly. “It was really a devastating moment,” said Mr. Kahne, who is attending the convention as a delegate for Kentucky. “I think about it almost every day.”

Since then, a near-total abortion ban has taken effect in Mr. Kahne’s state: “This issue isn’t an abstract thing to us. This is a real thing to us that we needed, and it’s no longer a right that families who need it have.”

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Kylie Oversen

“It is not very pro-life to be anti-I.V.F., and anti-paid leave, and anti-child care and public education, and all these things that the Republican Party stands for right now.”

Kylie Oversen,
35, North Dakota
attorney

Katie Stuart

“I am really proud to be in Illinois, where I have been able to vote on pretty landmark legislation protecting reproductive freedoms. But it’s scary to think that they could be attacked on a national level.”

Katie Stuart,
53, Illinois
state legislator

More than a quarter said they were worried about maintaining democracy and basic freedoms. Some said they were concerned about Project 2025, a set of conservative policy options that Mr. Trump has distanced himself from but that align with many of his priorities.

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Salauddin Choudhury

“I am from a background where democracy changed every few years and became a dictatorship, so we constantly have to fight. I value democracy more than anything else.”

Salauddin Choudhury,
54, Arizona
tech worker

Daniel Henry

“In Florida and North Florida, we feel like we’ve almost been the guinea pigs of Project 2025 in the way that Governor DeSantis has governed the state.”

Daniel Henry,
32, Florida
procurement professional

Nathan Soltz

“The foundations and institutions and the rule of law that make our country what it is are under serious threat if Donald Trump gets elected.”

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Nathan Soltz,
27, Oregon
chief of staff for state senator

A handful mentioned the economy. In a speech last week, Ms. Harris presented a series of economic proposals, including expanding a tax credit for parents, banning price gouging at grocery stores, spurring more affordable housing and lowering the cost of prescription drugs.

Simón Carlo

“Even though I believe we have a strong economy, sadly it’s been dominated by a select few.”

Simón Carlo,
36, Puerto Rico
attorney and accountant

Izzy Dobbel

“Something that makes me most hopeful is the conversation around helping people get ahead, both in lowering price gouging and advocating for working people.”

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Izzy Dobbel,
26, Illinois
political director at the Chicago Federation of Labor

Ryan Granger

“Affordable housing. There’s a lot of people in my generation that can’t afford a home, even here in the Midwest.”

Ryan Granger,
36, Missouri
regulatory analyst

Many respondents offered more than one issue. Education, climate change, gun control, health care and the rights of immigrants and other groups were cited several times.

Christine Hunschofsky

“I was the mayor of Parkland before becoming a state representative, so gun violence prevention is incredibly important to me.”

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Christine Hunschofsky,
54, Florida
state legislator

Mike Woods

“Public education for me, personally, is an issue that is just so important. I come from a small-town, working-class environment, and I had the world open up.”

Mike Woods,
70, Oklahoma
retired college professor

Howard Chou

“My grandfather was a nationalist who fought against communism, and my grandmother had to flee. That’s why I’m in this country. For people that stir up this rhetoric about criminals coming into this country, they don’t know anything about what they’re talking about.”

Howard Chou,
49, Colorado
political consultant and strategist

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A handful of delegates mentioned the war in Gaza, with some emphasizing the plight of the Palestinian people and others calling for continued U.S. support for Israel in its fight against Hamas.

3/6

Is there something you’ve seen change in the party?

Some respondents focused on the most immediate change — Ms. Harris’s replacement of Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket.

Alex Bores

“There’s that famous quote, ‘If I can’t dance, I don’t want to be part of your revolution.’ I think the last month or so has been a great time.”

Alex Bores,
33, New York
state legislator

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Kathy Jensen

“A lot of us got very depressed for several years. When Kamala and Tim Walz stepped in, the excitement just came back.”

Kathy Jensen,
71, Nebraska
retired teacher

The most common response was that the party has grown more diverse, particularly in positions of leadership. Several reflected on how the party has changed when it comes to L.G.B.T.Q. rights and inclusion, and with promoting younger members.

Tan Pham

“I can see a shift in the gay rights movement. Even in 2012, when Obama came out supporting L.G.B.T.Q., it took him a long time to come out with that support.”

Tan Pham,
39, Massachusetts
marketing director

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Raumesh Akbari

“When you have folks like Maxwell Frost and AOC, and you have Nancy Pelosi giving the reins over to minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, that all kind of signals to folks that there is a pathway for young people.”

Raumesh Akbari,
40, Tennessee
state legislator and lawyer

Neil Makhija

On Kamala Harris: “If you go back to a Democratic convention 20 years ago, you don’t see any of the people in leadership roles like her or like myself.”

Neil Makhija,
37, Pennsylvania
county commissioner

Angela Romero

“I feel like with our vice president being our nominee, it opens up the party to more diversity. I still feel like there are a lot of gatekeepers.”

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Angela Romero,
50, Utah
state legislator, community program manager

Some noted a shift toward progressivism, or a return to more populist roots. Others described their experiences as Democrats in Republican-leaning states, pointing to leaders like Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky as models for the party’s future.

Quentin Wathum-Ocama

“At least here in Minnesota, I think that people are really waking up to the possibility of really strong and smart progressive policies.”

Quentin Wathum-Ocama,
33, Minnesota
kindergarten teacher, president of Young Democrats of America

Crystal LaGrone

“In the past we’ve not done great by our Democrats that live in the red states, but I think maybe we’re turning a corner and seeing the value of propping them up.”

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Crystal LaGrone,
51, Oklahoma
I.T. professional

Michael J. Zagrobelny

“There has been a recent change in the party to return to our roots, and to bring back the Democrats that we may have lost over the years when they felt that the Democratic Party left them.”

Michael J. Zagrobelny,
55, New York
labor relations specialist

4/6

Has there been a particularly meaningful or formative political moment in your life?

Nearly a quarter of respondents cited the 2008 election of Barack Obama. (Mr. Obama was the first Democratic president many of those surveyed had been able to vote for.)

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Kevin Ford Jr.

“That was key to me. Just seeing somebody who looked like me be successful in an arena where Black folks haven’t truly been successful, especially on the national stage.”

Kevin Ford Jr.,
34, Maryland
real estate and cannabis entrepreneur

Daniel Mulieri

“It was seeing then-senator Obama give a speech. I can tell you it was just like, I can assume, seeing John F. Kennedy back in the day.”

Daniel Mulieri,
35, Florida
legislative director

Marlon Kimpson

“It brought so many new people into the party, and the excitement, hope and optimism. And by the way, that’s what I’m seeing now.”

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Marlon Kimpson,
55, South Carolina
lawyer, Biden trade committee appointee

Some described other meaningful campaigns and movements.

Sophia Rodriguez

“My dad said: ‘You’re little. Make your way to the front. Go squirm your way to the front so you can see Jimmy Carter up close.’”

Sophia Rodriguez,
57, Ohio
educator

William Eddy

“I took a leave of absence my freshman year to work on Ted Kennedy’s campaign. I guess that would be where the bug started.”

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William Eddy,
Massachusetts
executive director of a trade association

Aaron Sims

“It was very telling the kind of responses that Donald Trump received and what he invoked as a candidate. Prior to that I was actually very much a moderate Republican.”

Aaron Sims,
32, Nevada
accountant

Katie Darling

“After Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed, and Roe v. Wade was overturned, and Louisiana enacted a strict abortion ban, I ran for office. I was seven months pregnant and filmed my pregnancy and birth in my campaign ad.”

Katie Darling,
38, Louisiana
director of partnerships

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The rest cited personal moments or national or world events that helped shape their political views.

Glenn D. Magpantay

“The 1987 National March on Washington for Lesbian and Gay Rights. October 11.”

Glenn D. Magpantay,
55, New York
attorney, commissioner to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights

Kristan Peters-Hamlin

“What really got me to be actively involved was when George W. Bush was lying to America and the world about weapons of mass destruction.”

Kristan Peters-Hamlin,
Rhode Island
writer and lawyer

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Jeremy Moss

“When Joe Biden went on ‘Meet the Press’ and was one of the first really prominent national figures to endorse same-sex marriage.”

Jeremy Moss,
38, Michigan
state legislator

Jeffrey Dinowitz

“I got involved in political campaigns in 1972, and it was really an outgrowth of opposition to the war in Vietnam.”

Jeffrey Dinowitz,
69, New York
state legislator

Pat Spearman

“One of my sisters and I were among the first people to go to an integrated school in Alabama — Holtville High School. They did not want us there.”

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Pat Spearman,
69, Nevada
state legislator and minister

5/6

Which Democratic figure do you consider your favorite, or think aligns most closely with your positions?

Barack Obama was the most common favorite, mentioned by one-third of the delegates surveyed.

Alex Bores

“The way he was able to inspire hope, to bring people together when so many in society were fighting to push people apart is something I deeply admire.”

Alex Bores,
33, New York
state legislator

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Kyler Gilkey

“My uncle passed away in 2008, but he was actually able to vote absentee from his hospital bed for President Obama. He passed away literally about a week or so after the election was called, so he died knowing that first African American president had been elected.”

Kyler Gilkey,
24, Tennessee
government employee

Several Democrats were mentioned by at least three people:

Kathy Jensen

On Hillary Clinton: “Doggone it, that was so sad. We came so close to getting her elected president, and it didn’t happen. It was a real devastating feeling to me.”

Kathy Jensen,
71, Nebraska
retired teacher

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Lou Grossman

“I met Joe Biden on a train 15, 20 years ago, and he bought me a cup of coffee. And the first time you meet Joe Biden, you love Joe Biden.”

Lou Grossman,
73, Florida
public relations counselor

Gini Ballou

“I love Kamala Harris. I love the fact that she can be positive while remaining tough. It’s not a bad thing for a woman to be assertive and strong.”

Gini Ballou,
64, Idaho
sales manager

June Rose

“Politicians of all parties propose solutions as if we were dealing with smaller problems, and I think AOC and Bernie Sanders meet the moment.”

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June Rose,
29, Rhode Island
chief of staff for city council

The respondents named 53 favorite Democrats in all.

Mark Kelly Tyler

On former Representative Shirley Chisholm: “After watching the Netflix movie, I admire her even more than I did before.”

Mark Kelly Tyler,
58, Pennsylvania
senior pastor

John W. Hedrick

“I very much liked George McGovern when he ran his what turned out to be ill-fated campaign. Though two years later when Nixon was being impeached, you couldn’t find anyone who voted for Nixon.”

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John W. Hedrick,
69, Florida
retired attorney

Rayellen Smith

On Ann Richards, former governor of Texas: “She was brave and bold and charismatic and stood up for her values at a time when many women didn’t hold positions of power at all.”

Rayellen Smith,
68, New Mexico
retired C.P.A.

6/6

Aside from Kamala Harris, which Democratic figure do you think represents the future of the party?

Pete Buttigieg, the secretary of transportation, was the most popular answer.

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Andy Josephson

“If somebody said, ‘Andy, you now have to be in a debate against Pete Buttigieg,’ I’d say: ‘I decline. I‘m not doing it. I’m not going to do that. Why would I do that?’”

Andy Josephson,
60, Alaska
state legislator

Crystal LaGrone

“Has a way of sort of breaking through the noise, giving information, but at the same time, not relinquishing any power when he speaks.”

Crystal LaGrone,
51, Oklahoma
I.T. professional

Other common choices were several Democratic governors, including Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; Tim Walz of Minnesota (a handful of these interviews took place before he was announced as Ms. Harris’s running mate); Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania; Wes Moore of Maryland; and Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

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Adam Goldwyn

“Gretchen Whitmer is sort of pushing back and saying: Actually government can do good things.”

Adam Goldwyn,
43, North Dakota
professor

Alan Cai

On Tim Walz: “He served in the army. He comes from a working-class background. He was a teacher. I think the future of our party are ordinary people.”

Alan Cai,
18, Massachusetts
student

Michele L. Kidd

“Josh Shapiro has an amazing way of bringing people together across parties. The way that he responded to the assassination attempt of former president Trump was absolutely spot on.”

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Michele L. Kidd,
46, New Jersey
political consultant

Landiran Kern Jr.

On Wes Moore: “He ran away a bunch of times and got in a lot of trouble, but eventually he dialed down. He started focusing on academics, he attended Oxford, and he attended Johns Hopkins University, and now he’s the sitting governor of Maryland.”

Landiran Kern Jr.,
18, Wisconsin
student

Robert Kahne

“Andy Beshear is able to be progressive on every issue without alienating anybody. He shows this leadership that isn’t really ideological.”

Robert Kahne,
38, Kentucky
data scientist

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Several Democratic members of the House were also mentioned.

Gini Ballou

“I love the boldness of Jasmine Crockett. I want to see us be willing to stand up and say, ‘No, you can’t treat us like that.’”

Gini Ballou,
64, Idaho
sales manager

Sungkwan Jang

On Representative Ro Khanna of California: “I think he presents a very thoughtful vision on progressive values and policies that also makes sense to everyone, whether you work in Silicon Valley or on Main Street.”

Sungkwan Jang,
34, New Jersey
consultant

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Pat Spearman

On Representative Jennifer McClellan of Virginia: “She is a very quiet but powerful leader, and I would keep my eye on her.”

Pat Spearman,
69, Nevada
state legislator and minister

Overall, participants named 44 Democrats they thought represented the party’s future.

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Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran

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Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran

new video loaded: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran

Our national security correspondent David E. Sanger examines the war of choice that President Trump has initiated with Iran.

By David E. Sanger, Gilad Thaler, Thomas Vollkommer and Laura Salaberry

March 1, 2026

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Dems’ potential 2028 hopefuls come out against US strikes on Iran

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Dems’ potential 2028 hopefuls come out against US strikes on Iran

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Some of the top rumored Democratic potential candidates for president in 2028 are showing a united front in opposing U.S. strikes on Iran, with several high-profile figures accusing President Donald Trump of launching an unnecessary and unconstitutional war.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris said Trump was “dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want.”

“Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice,” Harris said in a statement Saturday following the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes throughout Iran.

“This is a dangerous and unnecessary gamble with American lives that also jeopardizes stability in the region and our standing in the world,” she continued. “What we are witnessing is not strength. It is recklessness dressed up as resolve.”

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Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are leading Democratic 2028 hopefuls who spoke out against U.S. strikes on Iran. (Big Event Media/Getty Images for HumanX Conference; Reuters/Liesa Johannssen; Mario Tama/Getty Images)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivered some of his sharpest criticism during a book tour stop Saturday night in San Francisco, accusing Trump of manufacturing a crisis.

“It stems from weakness masquerading as strength,” Newsom said. “He lied to you. So reckless is the only way to describe this.”

“He didn’t describe to the American people what the endgame is here,” Newsom added. “There wasn’t one. He manufactured it.”

Newsom is currently promoting his memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” with recent and upcoming stops in South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada — three key early voting states in the Democratic presidential calendar.

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Earlier in the day, Newsom said Iran’s “corrupt and repressive” regime must never obtain nuclear weapons and that the “leadership of Iran must go.”

“But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war that will risk the lives of our American service members and our friends without justification to the American people,” Newsom wrote on X.

California is home to more than half of the roughly 400,000 Iranian immigrants in the United States, including a large community in West Los Angeles often referred to as “Tehrangeles.”

DEMOCRATS BUCK PARTY LEADERS TO DEFEND TRUMP’S ‘DECISIVE ACTION’ ON IRAN

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., a leading progressive voice and “Squad” member, accused Trump of dragging Americans into a conflict they did not support.

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“The American people are once again dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic,” Ocasio-Cortez said.

“Just this week, Iran and the United States were negotiating key measures that could have staved off war. The President walked away from these discussions and chose war instead,” she continued.

“In moments of war, our Constitution is unambiguous: Congress authorizes war. The President does not,” she said, pledging to vote “YES on Representatives Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie’s War Powers Resolution.”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Vox Media)

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another Democrat often mentioned as a potential 2028 contender, also criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress.

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“No justification, no authorization from Congress, and no clear objective,” Pritzker wrote on X.

“Donald Trump is once again sidestepping the Constitution and once again failing to explain why he’s taking us into another war,” he continued. “Americans asked for affordable housing and health care, not another potentially endless conflict.”

“God protect our troops,” Pritzker added.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails.

“In our democracy, the American people — through our elected representatives — decide when our nation goes to war,” Shapiro said, adding that Trump “acted unilaterally — without Congressional approval.”

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JONATHAN TURLEY: TRUMP STRIKES IRAN — PRECEDENT AND HISTORY ARE ON HIS SIDE

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails. (Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“Make no mistake, the Iranian regime represses its own people… they must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons,” he said. “But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war.”

Shapiro added that “Congress must use all available power” to prevent further escalation.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also accused Trump of launching a “war of choice.”

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“The President has launched our nation and our great military into a war of choice, risking American lives and resources, ignoring American law, and endangering our allies and partners,” Buttigieg wrote on X. “This nation learned the hard way that an unnecessary war, with no plan for what comes next, can lead to years of chaos and put America in still greater danger.”

Buttigieg has been hitting early voting states, stopping in New Hampshire and Nevada in recent weeks to campaign for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who has been floated as a rising national figure within the party, said he lost friends in Iraq to an illegal war and opposed the strikes.

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“Young working-class kids should not pay the ultimate price for regime change and a war that hasn’t been explained or justified to the American people. We can support the democracy movement and the Iranian people without sending our troops to die,” Gallego wrote on X. 

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Fox News’ Daniel Scully and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report.

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From hostage crisis to assassination plots: Iran’s near half-century war on Americans
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Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight

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Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight

Donald Trump has never been one to play by the rules.

Whether it’s stiffing contractors as a real estate developer, defying court orders he doesn’t like as president or leveraging the Oval Office to vastly inflate his family’s fortune, Trump’s guiding principle can be distilled to a simple, unswerving calculation: What’s in it for me?

Trump is no student of history. He’s famously allergic to books. But he knows enough to know that midterm elections like the one in November have, with few exceptions, been ugly for the party holding the presidency.

With control of the House — and Trump’s virtually unchecked authority — dangling by a gossamer thread, he reckoned correctly that Republicans were all but certain to lose power this fall unless something unusual happened.

So he effectively broke the rules.

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Normally, the redrawing of the country’s congressional districts takes place once every 10 years, following the census and accounting for population changes over the previous decade. Instead, Trump prevailed upon the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, to throw out the state’s political map and refashion congressional lines to wipe out Democrats and boost GOP chances of winning as many as five additional House seats.

The intention was to create a bit of breathing room, as Democrats need a gain of just three seats to seize control of the House.

In relatively short order, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, responded with his own partisan gerrymander. He rallied voters to pass a tit-for-tat ballot measure, Proposition 50, which revised the state’s political map to wipe out Republicans and boost Democratic prospects of winning as many as five additional seats.

Then came the deluge.

In more than a dozen states, lawmakers looked at ways to tinker with their congressional maps to lift their candidates, stick it to the other party and gain House seats in November.

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Some of those efforts continue, including in Virginia where, as in California, voters are being asked to amend the state Constitution to let majority Democrats redraw political lines ahead of the midterm. A special election is set for April 21.

But as the first ballots of 2026 are cast on Tuesday — in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas — the broad contours of the House map have become clearer, along with the result of all those partisan machinations. The likely upshot is a nationwide partisan shift of fewer than a handful of seats.

The independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has a sterling decades-long record of election forecasting, said the most probable outcome is a wash. “At the end of the day,” said Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Report, “this doesn’t really benefit either party in a real way.”

Well.

That was a lot of wasted time and energy.

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Let’s take a quick spin through the map and the math, knowing that, of course, there are no election guarantees.

In Texas, for instance, new House districts were drawn assuming Latinos would back Republican candidates by the same large percentage they supported Trump in 2024. But that’s become much less certain, given the backlash against his draconian immigration enforcement policies; numerous polls show a significant falloff in Latino support for the president, which could hurt GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

But suppose Texas Republicans gain five seats as hoped for and California Democrats pick up the five seats they’ve hand-crafted. The result would be no net change.

Elsewhere, under the best case for each party, a gain of four Democratic House seats in Virginia would be offset by a gain of four Republican House seats in Florida.

That leaves a smattering of partisan gains here and there. A combined pickup of four or so Republican seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri could be mostly offset by Democratic gains of a seat apiece in New York, Maryland and Utah.

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(The latter is not a result of legislative high jinks, but rather a judge throwing out the gerrymandered map passed by Utah Republicans, who ignored a voter-approved ballot measure intended to prevent such heavy-handed partisanship. A newly created district, contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County, seems certain to go Democrats’ way in November.)

In short, it’s easy to characterize the political exertions of Trump, Abbott, Newsom and others as so much sound and fury producing, at bottom, little to nothing.

But that’s not necessarily so.

The campaign surrounding Proposition 50 delivered a huge political boost to Newsom, shoring up his standing with Democrats, significantly raising his profile across the country and, not least for his 2028 presidential hopes, helping the governor build a significant nationwide fundraising base.

In crimson-colored Indiana, Republicans refused to buckle under tremendous pressure from Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other party leaders, rejecting an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map and give the GOP a hold on all nine House seats. That showed even Trump’s Svengali-like hold on his party has its limits.

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But the biggest impact is also the most corrosive.

By redrawing political lines to predetermine the outcome of House races, politicians rendered many of their voters irrelevant and obsolete. Millions of Democrats in Texas, Republicans in California and partisans in other states have been effectively disenfranchised, their voices rendered mute. Their ballots spindled and nullified.

In short, the politicians — starting with Trump — extended a big middle finger to a large portion of the American electorate.

Is it any wonder, then, so many voters hold politicians and our political system in contempt?

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