Politics
Opinion: Three reasons China would be happier with Trump than Biden
The month after former President Trump left office in 2021, Matt Pottinger, who had been the point man for China on Trump’s National Security Council, told me in an interview that had Trump stayed on for a second term, he might have moved to a “wholesale decoupling” of the U.S. economy from China.
Yet John Bolton, who served as Trump’s third national security advisor, predicted in early 2021 that if Trump had been reelected, he “might have careened back to bromance and a disastrous trade deal [with China], just for starters.”
Those conflicting statements point to Trump’s unpredictability on China. They also raise the question of how Chinese President Xi Jinping and his aides are viewing the 2024 American election and the possibility of another Trump presidency.
In this country, a false logic has taken hold. Trump talks tough about China, and he promises a wave of new tariffs on imports. Therefore, the thinking goes, China must not want Trump to return to the White House; Xi would favor the reelection of President Biden.
That conclusion is wrong. China not only isn’t worried about the prospect of a second Trump presidency, it would choose it over a continuation of Biden and the Democrats.
First, Trump is precisely the sort of leader China knows how to deal with. He has a huge ego and thinks only he can resolve problems through deals he thinks only he can make. Remember: Trump believed he alone could get North Korea to curb its nuclear weapons program by meeting with its leader, Kim Jong Un. His clumsy efforts at deal-making brought forth lots of drama and no results.
China has a history of dealing with powerful officials through flattery, personal relationships and financial rewards. Chinese leaders prefer such officials to those who are preoccupied with impersonal rules or laws.
During Trump’s presidency, we saw China working these levers. With the help of real estate deals and trademark grants, the Chinese forged connections with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. Chinese officials also spent millions of dollars at Trump’s hotel properties. Such efforts would no doubt revive in a second Trump presidency.
Trump supporters will point out that Biden’s son Hunter has also done business with China, trading on his father’s name and power. But Hunter’s business interests were penny-ante compared with Trump Inc.’s, and no one has turned up convincing evidence that Joe Biden benefited from his family’s foreign dealings.
Beyond the appeal of Trump’s egomania, Beijing would see his foreign policy aims as a big improvement over Biden’s.
China’s principal geopolitical concern these days is heading off the series of alliances and partnerships the Biden administration has pulled together in response to its policies. The president has strengthened U.S. ties with Japan, South Korea and Australia; announced new U.S. bases in the Philippines; enhanced bilateral cooperation with Vietnam; and recruited European nations to help counter China on trade, technology and sanctions.
Trump, on the other hand, was scornful of American alliances in his first term, and he has been even more so in his recent campaign statements, questioning America’s NATO obligations, supporting an end to Ukraine aid and offering words of praise for authoritarian leaders such as Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban, who was at Mar-a-Lago on Friday.
Most importantly, Trump promises a new, warmer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom China forged a “no-limits” partnership in 2022. If Trump is reelected, he might even lift sanctions against Russia.
From China’s perspective, an America separating itself from its allies and moving closer to Russia would be ideal. An America in retreat from the world stage gives ample room for China to project its international ambitions.
Finally, China understands that it is a Democratic not a Republican administration that will more likely act tough rather than merely talk tough.
It’s true that while Trump was in the White House, the U.S. shifted away from a policy of engagement and began to treat China as the geopolitical and commercial adversary it had become. But that might well have happened under any president, given the underlying factors: China’s aggressive actions overseas and the U.S. business community’s growing dissatisfaction with China’s commercial spying and theft of intellectual property.
Trump was willing to impose tariffs on China although his predecessors were not. But Biden not only continued those tariffs, he imposed new technology trade restrictions that went well beyond anything Trump did to challenge the Chinese — notably, he imposed limits in 2022 that he tightened a year later on China’s access to semiconductors and chip-making equipment. Such efforts seem likely to continue if the Democrats keep the White House.
And there’s this: Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods were groundbreaking, but it is less well remembered that he also entered into a trade deal with China — “It just doesn’t get any bigger than this,” he boasted — that proved unsuccessful. In exchange for modest cuts in the tariffs Trump had imposed, China pledged to buy $200 million in American exports. The Chinese never came close to keeping that promise.
Based on his track record, it seems fair to predict that if Trump returned to the White House, he would start out with bombastic rhetoric against China. Then, with an emphasis on personalized diplomacy, he might look for another trade deal he could tout, no matter its real results.
Trump’s promises to weaken U.S. relations with its allies, his egocentric approach to diplomacy and his propensity to over-hype and under-deliver would only make it easier for Beijing to realize its global ambitions.
China doesn’t fear Trump. It relishes the prospect of his return to the presidency.
James Mann, author of three books on the U.S. relationship with China, is a member of the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Politics
Trump administration planning illegal immigrant arrests throughout US on ‘day one’
The incoming Trump administration is eyeing immigration arrests of illegal immigrants across the country as soon as day one, as top officials say they are ready to “take the handcuffs off” Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration is planning a large-scale raid in Chicago on Tuesday, targeting those with criminal backgrounds in particular.
Incoming border czar Tom Homan was asked by Fox News’ Jesse Watters about the media reports of a “big raid” on Tuesday in Chicago, but Homan said ICE will be working across the country.
DEM SENATOR QUIZZES NOEM ON HOW SHE WILL WORK WITH HOMAN: ‘WHO IS IN CHARGE?’
“There’s going to be a big raid across the country. Chicago is just one of many places. We’ve got 24 field offices across the country. On Tuesday, ICE is finally going to go out and do their job. We’re going to take the handcuffs off ICE and let them go arrest criminal aliens, that’s what’s going to happen,” he said.
“What we’re telling ICE, you’re going to enforce the immigration law without apology. You’re going to concentrate on the worst first, public safety threats first, but no one is off the table. If they’re in the country illegally, they got a problem,” he said.
The administration has promised a mass deportation operation, as well as increased border security. Officials have said they intend to target those with criminal histories and convictions, but have also stressed that they will potentially arrest anyone in the U.S. illegally. There are currently more than 7 million individuals on ICE’s non-detained docket.
TRUMP DHS PICK NOEM PLEDGES TO END CONTROVERSIAL APP USED BY MIGRANTS ON ‘DAY ONE’
“The administration has been clear that we’re going to start arresting people on day one, and Chicago’s probably not going to be the only place that arrests are going to be made,” a source familiar told Fox News Digital.
The administration is expected to see significant pushback from “sanctuary” cities that refuse to allow state and local law enforcement to honor ICE detainers – requests that ICE be notified when illegal immigrants in custody are being released.
Some Democratic officials in Chicago, as well as Massachusetts and Arizona have said they will not co-operate with the administration.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE COVERAGE OF THE BORDER SECURITY CRISIS
But New York City Mayor Eric Adams has met with Homan about how they can work together on removing illegal immigrants who have been convicted of violent crimes.
DHS nominee Kristi Noem testified to Congress on Friday, and threw her support behind the mass deportation operation and increasing border security. She also said the administration will immediately end the use of the CBP One app, which currently allows migrants to be paroled into the U.S.
Politics
Supreme Court will decide if parents have a religious liberty right to reject LGBTQ+ lessons for their kids
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court agreed Friday to take up a culture wars dispute and decide whether parents have a religious liberty right to have their children “opt out” of using school textbooks and lesson plans with LGBTQ+ themes.
The court voted to hear an appeal from a group of Muslim, Jewish and Christian parents in Montgomery County, Md., who objected to new storybooks for elementary school children that they said “celebrate gender transitioning, pride parades, and pronoun preferences with kids as young as three and four.”
At first, the school board reacted to the complaints by saying parents could have their children excused from the class when the new textbooks were being used or discussed.
But after seeing a “growing number of opt out requests,” the school district reversed course in 2023 and said no opt-outs would be granted “for any reason.”
The parents then sued in federal court, citing the 1st Amendment’s protection for the free exercise of religion.
They were represented by the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty. After failing to win a court order in favor of the parents, they urged the Supreme Court to hear the case and to give parents an “opt out” right for books that they say offend their religious beliefs.
They argued many of the new “inclusivity” books for students from kindergarten to fifth grade champion a progressive ideology about gender and sexuality.
They cited one book that told 3- and 4-year-olds to search for images from a word list that includes “intersex flag,” “drag queen,” “underwear,” “leather.” Another book advocated a child-knows-best approach to gender transitioning, they said.
Eric Baxter, senior counsel at Becket, welcomed the court’s intervention.
“Cramming down controversial gender ideology on three-year-olds without their parents’ permission is an affront to our nation’s traditions, parental rights, and basic human decency,” he said in a statement. “The court must make clear: parents, not the state, should be the ones deciding how and when to introduce their children to sensitive issues about gender and sexuality.”
Last month, the school district’s lawyers said there was no reason for the justices to take up the case.
“Every court of appeals that has considered the question has held that mere exposure to controversial issues in a public-school curriculum does not burden the free religious exercise of parents or students,” they said. “Parents who choose to send their children to public school are not deprived of their right to freely exercise their religion simply because their children are exposed to curricular materials the parents find offensive.”
The justices are likely to schedule the case of Mahmoud vs. Taylor for arguments in late April.
Politics
An Illustrated Guide to Trump’s Conflict of Interest Risks
During his first administration, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s global business empire created an unprecedented number of conflicts of interest for a sitting president. Ethics experts worried that opportunists could try to curry favor by booking stays at Mr. Trump’s network of hotels, golf clubs and other properties.
Their predictions bore out: Foreign governments and lobbyists spent lavishly at his Washington hotel, which has since been sold, as well as at his Mar-a-Lago resort and other properties. The federal government itself also became an awkward customer by renting millions of dollars’ worth of rooms at his hotels and clubs.
Those concerns now seem almost quaint in light of some of Mr. Trump’s more recent business ventures. They include a publicly traded company, a cryptocurrency venture, new overseas real estate deals involving state-affiliated entities and numerous branding and licensing deals.
The new additions to Mr. Trump’s portfolio could provide more direct avenues for those wishing to influence a sitting president or even to try to extort him, according to some outside ethics lawyers.
Some of the new international real estate deals are among the most potentially worrisome.
Several of Mr. Trump’s recent real estate projects have connections to foreign governments in the Middle East, raising concerns that Mr. Trump’s financial interests could influence foreign policy.
Many of the contracts that the Trump family has negotiated overseas since Mr. Trump left office are so-called branding deals. The Trump family sells its name to international developers that build residential and resort complexes and sell luxury units at a premium, they hope, based on Mr. Trump’s perceived star power.
One of the developments, a luxury hotel and golf course complex in the Middle Eastern nation of Oman, is being built on land owned by the country’s government. That project and three others are proceeding in partnership with a subsidiary of a Saudi-based real estate company, Dar Al Arkan, which has close ties with the Saudi government. Saudi Arabia has a long list of pressing matters before the United States, including requests to buy F-35 fighter jets and gain access to nuclear power technology.
Oman also plays an important role in the Middle East, often serving as a middleman between the United States and Iran.
It is extremely unusual, historians say, for any U.S. president to be involved in family business deals with a foreign government nexus at the same time as he is managing foreign policy matters that affect that same nation.
A new cryptocurrency business introduces an entirely different set of ethics concerns.
Last fall, the Trump family helped launch World Liberty Financial, a platform for investors to borrow and lend using cryptocurrencies. The Trump family members are not owners or officers in the company, but they have an agreement to be paid for helping promote it.
After getting off to a rocky start, the company got a boost in the form of a $30 million token purchase by Justin Sun, a cryptocurrency executive who has been targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission on fraud claims unrelated to World Liberty Financial. Mr. Sun has moved to dismiss the case.
As of November, World Liberty claimed to have at least 20,000 token holders who have bought a stake in what the company calls a “platform inspired by Donald J. Trump.” These purchases were made even though the tokens — at least for now — cannot be resold, meaning they have no immediate value to the buyers.
But the purchases, made by individuals whose names are not public, should generate tens of millions of dollars in payments to the Trump family, according to company filings.
Mr. Trump has already seen the effect he can have on the cryptocurrency market. When he announced his pick for S.E.C. chairman, the crypto advocate and lawyer Paul Atkins, Bitcoin value surged above $100,000 for the first time in its history. Mr. Trump immediately moved to claim credit for the milestone. “CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU’RE WELCOME!!! Together, we will Make America Great Again!,” he wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
Mr. Trump himself, according to his 2024 financial disclosure, owned as much as $5 million worth of Ethereum, a token second only to Bitcoin in popularity. That cryptocurrency has also surged in value since the election.
The new leadership at the S.E.C. is likely to decide on rules that could significantly increase the value of Ethereum, Bitcoin and tokens at World Liberty Financial. They could also pave the way for the company to market its coins to a wider swath of the public,, which would potentially generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional payouts to Mr. Trump and his family.
A publicly traded company presents another avenue for persuasion.
Last spring, Trump Media & Technology Group, which is the parent company of Truth Social and the president-elect’s single greatest source of wealth, went public. Buying company shares is another new way special interests could try to sway Mr. Trump, its largest shareholder.
For instance, corporations and others could buy shares in the company or advertise on Truth Social. And while foreigners are not allowed by law to make campaign contributions to Mr. Trump, there is no limit on their ability to buy large chunks of stock in his company, perhaps in an effort to intentionally push up the stock’s value and further enrich the Trump family. Mr. Trump did recently transfer his ownership stake in Trump Media to a trust controlled by his oldest son, Donald Trump Jr.
As president, Mr. Trump will also be in a unique position to drive traffic — and ultimately revenue — to Truth Social, whose parent company has been struggling to make money.
He has an agreement with Truth Social to post certain types of content on Truth Social first, before posting to other platforms, like Elon Musk’s X.
Most news releases about cabinet picks and other appointments during the Trump-Vance transition have provided links to a corresponding Truth Social post.
Mr. Trump’s name is on an array of new items, some quite expensive.
Then there are the numerous new merchandise licensing deals, which may not give purchasers a direct line to attempt to influence geopolitics but certainly line Mr. Trump’s own pockets. Since leaving the White House, Mr. Trump has lent his name and image to dozens of products.
The list of such products seems to be growing. It includes three recent books, the first of which relied largely on photos taken by White House photographers, which Mr. Trump repackaged and is now selling for as much as $500 a copy. Mr. Trump more recently has moved to selling Trump Digital Trading Cards, which brought in more than $7 million, according to his latest financial disclosure. He also has helped sell Bibles, earning a cut of the profits. It remains unclear if these merchandise sales benefiting Mr. Trump will continue while he is president.
Almost all of the real estate holdings and deals from Mr. Trump’s first term remain active.
Mr. Trump has an extensive network of assets that he held during his previous term and is carrying into his second, excluding several properties that have been sold since 2017.
In the United States, there are golf clubs and resorts …
… and hotels and residential and commercial properties. Mr. Trump owns some in full or part; others use his name in exchange for a fee.
Overseas, Mr. Trump owns or has branding deals with more than a dozen properties that were also in play during his first administration.
And he continues to hold a stake in about half a dozen other assets.
Before the start of his first term, Mr. Trump made some attempts to distance himself from his businesses.
He said he would place his business holdings in a trust, but the trust was controlled by his two oldest sons instead of an independent entity, which is more the norm. He pledged that there would be “no new deals” by his company involving international real estate projects while he was in the White House.
This month, the Trump family issued an updated ethics pledge that revived many of the earlier promises with one key distinction: The Trump family intends to continue to do new international real estate deals, as long as the counterparties are not foreign governments themselves.
Eric Trump, the family member most responsible for overseeing the Trump Organization and its new deals, said the family is committed to avoiding any transactions that exploit connections to the White House. The company has appointed a well-known outside ethics lawyer, a former federal prosecutor and corporate lawyer named William A. Burck, to review any new contracts worth more than $10 million. “The Trump Organization is dedicated to not just meeting but vastly exceeding its legal and ethical obligations during my father’s presidency,” Eric Trump said in a statement.
Legal questions loom.
Certain ethics lawyers have argued that some of Mr. Trump’s conflicts of interest are not only a problem, but that they also represent a violation of the so-called emoluments clause in the Constitution, which prohibits a president from certain payments from any foreign government. The president and vice president are not exempt from this provision, as they are from conflict of interest laws that require other senior federal officials to divest from companies that might benefit from their official actions.
Several lawsuits filed against Mr. Trump during his first term argued that he had violated the emoluments clause by accepting payments at the Trump hotel he then owned in Washington, among other business operations.
His first term ended before the federal court system could definitively rule on questions related to emoluments, although the courts did ultimately allow the cases to proceed, suggesting that it remained possible that the outcome could have been against Mr. Trump.
But the clock ran out and the Supreme Court ruled that the cases were moot as soon as he left office. The legal fight would have to start all over again, but there is likely to be an allegation that the Trump Organization’s continued business deals through some of its subsidiaries with foreign governments is unconstitutional or illegal, these ethics lawyers said.
In the past 50 years, incoming U.S. presidents have voluntarily taken steps to disentangle themselves from any activities that could be perceived as a conflict of interest or moneymaking venture during their time in office.
Jimmy Carter turned over his peanut farm to a trust, which he learned after he left the White House was deeply in debt. Ronald Reagan announced within two weeks of his inauguration that he had sold off all of his investments, other than his ranch and another home, converting these holdings to cash that was then managed by an independent trustee. Lyndon B. Johnson and his wife put her Texas radio and television holdings in a trust.
But these issues have created questions before — a point Mr. Trump’s family and lawyer raised this month when they laid out Mr. Trump’s own ethics plan. When George Washington was president, the Trump lawyers noted, he continued to own a business that exported flour and cornmeal to Europe and the Caribbean. In the 1970s, Vice President Nelson Rockefeller maintained a stake in Standard Oil, which his grandfather founded.
In Mr. Trump’s case, questions about real or potential conflicts extend beyond the president-elect.
His oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., announced recently that he is joining the venture capital firm 1789 Capital, which focuses on investing in conservative companies and could see its business boosted as a result of its ties to the first family. Mr. Trump’s son Barron is playing a role in World Liberty Financial, as are Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, according to disclosure documents.
And Jared Kushner, the president-elect’s son-in-law, runs a private equity firm called Affinity Partners that has raised $4.5 billion, mostly from sovereign wealth funds of the oil-rich nations of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, based on relationships he built while in the White House during Mr. Trump’s first term. Mr. Kushner does not plan to return to the White House. But his ties to Mr. Trump will create new ethics concerns as he continues to make investments over the next four years, including luxury hotel deals in Albania and Serbia, where the governments there are his partners.
Most of these potential conflicts did not exist the first time Mr. Trump was in office. It all means these kinds of questions are only going to be more intense this White House term.
-
Technology1 week ago
Meta is highlighting a splintering global approach to online speech
-
Science6 days ago
Metro will offer free rides in L.A. through Sunday due to fires
-
Technology1 week ago
Las Vegas police release ChatGPT logs from the suspect in the Cybertruck explosion
-
News1 week ago
Photos: Pacific Palisades Wildfire Engulfs Homes in an L.A. Neighborhood
-
Education1 week ago
Four Fraternity Members Charged After a Pledge Is Set on Fire
-
Politics1 week ago
Trump trolls Canada again, shares map with country as part of US: 'Oh Canada!'
-
Technology6 days ago
Amazon Prime will shut down its clothing try-on program
-
News1 week ago
Mapping the Damage From the Palisades Fire