Politics
Opinion: Three reasons China would be happier with Trump than Biden
The month after former President Trump left office in 2021, Matt Pottinger, who had been the point man for China on Trump’s National Security Council, told me in an interview that had Trump stayed on for a second term, he might have moved to a “wholesale decoupling” of the U.S. economy from China.
Yet John Bolton, who served as Trump’s third national security advisor, predicted in early 2021 that if Trump had been reelected, he “might have careened back to bromance and a disastrous trade deal [with China], just for starters.”
Those conflicting statements point to Trump’s unpredictability on China. They also raise the question of how Chinese President Xi Jinping and his aides are viewing the 2024 American election and the possibility of another Trump presidency.
In this country, a false logic has taken hold. Trump talks tough about China, and he promises a wave of new tariffs on imports. Therefore, the thinking goes, China must not want Trump to return to the White House; Xi would favor the reelection of President Biden.
That conclusion is wrong. China not only isn’t worried about the prospect of a second Trump presidency, it would choose it over a continuation of Biden and the Democrats.
First, Trump is precisely the sort of leader China knows how to deal with. He has a huge ego and thinks only he can resolve problems through deals he thinks only he can make. Remember: Trump believed he alone could get North Korea to curb its nuclear weapons program by meeting with its leader, Kim Jong Un. His clumsy efforts at deal-making brought forth lots of drama and no results.
China has a history of dealing with powerful officials through flattery, personal relationships and financial rewards. Chinese leaders prefer such officials to those who are preoccupied with impersonal rules or laws.
During Trump’s presidency, we saw China working these levers. With the help of real estate deals and trademark grants, the Chinese forged connections with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. Chinese officials also spent millions of dollars at Trump’s hotel properties. Such efforts would no doubt revive in a second Trump presidency.
Trump supporters will point out that Biden’s son Hunter has also done business with China, trading on his father’s name and power. But Hunter’s business interests were penny-ante compared with Trump Inc.’s, and no one has turned up convincing evidence that Joe Biden benefited from his family’s foreign dealings.
Beyond the appeal of Trump’s egomania, Beijing would see his foreign policy aims as a big improvement over Biden’s.
China’s principal geopolitical concern these days is heading off the series of alliances and partnerships the Biden administration has pulled together in response to its policies. The president has strengthened U.S. ties with Japan, South Korea and Australia; announced new U.S. bases in the Philippines; enhanced bilateral cooperation with Vietnam; and recruited European nations to help counter China on trade, technology and sanctions.
Trump, on the other hand, was scornful of American alliances in his first term, and he has been even more so in his recent campaign statements, questioning America’s NATO obligations, supporting an end to Ukraine aid and offering words of praise for authoritarian leaders such as Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban, who was at Mar-a-Lago on Friday.
Most importantly, Trump promises a new, warmer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom China forged a “no-limits” partnership in 2022. If Trump is reelected, he might even lift sanctions against Russia.
From China’s perspective, an America separating itself from its allies and moving closer to Russia would be ideal. An America in retreat from the world stage gives ample room for China to project its international ambitions.
Finally, China understands that it is a Democratic not a Republican administration that will more likely act tough rather than merely talk tough.
It’s true that while Trump was in the White House, the U.S. shifted away from a policy of engagement and began to treat China as the geopolitical and commercial adversary it had become. But that might well have happened under any president, given the underlying factors: China’s aggressive actions overseas and the U.S. business community’s growing dissatisfaction with China’s commercial spying and theft of intellectual property.
Trump was willing to impose tariffs on China although his predecessors were not. But Biden not only continued those tariffs, he imposed new technology trade restrictions that went well beyond anything Trump did to challenge the Chinese — notably, he imposed limits in 2022 that he tightened a year later on China’s access to semiconductors and chip-making equipment. Such efforts seem likely to continue if the Democrats keep the White House.
And there’s this: Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods were groundbreaking, but it is less well remembered that he also entered into a trade deal with China — “It just doesn’t get any bigger than this,” he boasted — that proved unsuccessful. In exchange for modest cuts in the tariffs Trump had imposed, China pledged to buy $200 million in American exports. The Chinese never came close to keeping that promise.
Based on his track record, it seems fair to predict that if Trump returned to the White House, he would start out with bombastic rhetoric against China. Then, with an emphasis on personalized diplomacy, he might look for another trade deal he could tout, no matter its real results.
Trump’s promises to weaken U.S. relations with its allies, his egocentric approach to diplomacy and his propensity to over-hype and under-deliver would only make it easier for Beijing to realize its global ambitions.
China doesn’t fear Trump. It relishes the prospect of his return to the presidency.
James Mann, author of three books on the U.S. relationship with China, is a member of the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Politics
Trump ally diGenova tapped to lead DOJ probe into Brennan over Russia probe origins
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The Justice Department is turning to former Trump attorney Joeseph diGenova to spearhead a probe into ex-CIA Director John Brennan and others over the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, as the department reshuffles leadership of the sprawling inquiry.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has tapped diGenova to serve as counsel overseeing the matter, according to a New York Times report, putting a former Trump attorney in a key role in the high-profile probe. A federal grand jury seated in Miami has been impaneled since late last year.
The Department of Justice did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
DOJ ACTIVELY PREPARING TO ISSUE GRAND JURY SUBPOENAS RELATING TO JOHN BRENNAN INVESTIGATION: SOURCES
Joseph diGenova represented President Donald Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)
DiGenova, a former U.S. attorney in Washington, D.C., who represented Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has repeatedly accused Brennan of misconduct tied to the origins of the Russia probe—allegations that have not resulted in criminal charges.
He also said in a 2018 appearance on Fox News that Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump.
The origins of the Russia investigation have been the subject of ongoing scrutiny by Trump allies, who have argued that intelligence and law enforcement officials improperly launched the probe.
BRENNAN INDICTMENT COULD COME WITHIN ‘WEEKS’ AS PROSECUTORS REQUEST OFFICIAL TRANSCRIPTS
Joseph diGenova has previously said that ex-CIA chief John Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)
DiGenova’s appointment follows the ouster of Maria Medetis Long, a national security prosecutor in the South Florida U.S. attorney’s office. She had been overseeing the inquiry, including a false statements probe related to Brennan and broader conspiracy-related investigations.
As the investigation continues, federal investigators have issued subpoenas seeking information related to intelligence assessments of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
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John Brennan has denied any wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation. (William B. Plowman/NBC/NBC NewsWire via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Brennan has previously denied wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation and has defended the intelligence community’s assessment that Moscow interfered in the 2016 election.
Politics
Supreme Court weighs phone searches to find criminals amid complaints of ‘digital dragnets’
WASHINGTON — A man carrying a gun and a cellphone entered a federal credit union in a small town in central Virginia in May 2019 and demanded cash.
He left with $195,000 in a bag and no clue to his identity. But his smartphone was keeping track of him.
What happened next could yield a landmark ruling from the Supreme Court on the 4th Amendment and its restrictions against “unreasonable searches.” The court will hear arguments on the issue on April 27.
Typically, police use tips or leads to find suspects, then seek a search warrant from a judge to enter a house or other private area to seize the evidence that can prove a crime.
Civil libertarians say the new “digital dragnets” work in reverse.
“It’s grab the data and search first. Suspicion later. That’s opposite of how our system has worked, and it’s really dangerous,” said Jake Laperruque, an attorney for the Center for Democracy & Technology.
But these new data scans can be effective in finding criminals.
Lacking leads in the Virginia bank robbery, a police detective turned to what one judge in the case called a “groundbreaking investigative tool … enabling the relentless collection of eerily precise location data.”
Cellphones can be tracked through towers, and Google stored this location history data for hundreds of millions of users. The detective sent Google a demand for information known as a “geofence warrant,” referring to a virtual fence around a particular geographic area at a specific time.
The officer sought phones that were within 150 yards of the bank during the hour of the robbery. He used that data to locate Okello Chatrie, then obtained a search warrant of his home where the cash and the holdup notes were found.
Chatrie entered a conditional guilty plea, but the Supreme Court will hear his appeal next week.
The justices agreed to decide whether geofence warrants violate the 4th Amendment.
The outcome may go beyond location tracking. At issue more broadly is the legal status of the vast amount of privately stored data that can be easily scanned.
This may include words or phrases found in Google searches or in emails. For example, investigators may want to know who searched for a particular address in the weeks before an arson or a murder took place there or who searched for information on making a particular type of bomb.
Judges are deeply divided on how this fits with the 4th Amendment.
Two years ago, the conservative U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in New Orleans ruled “geofence warrants are general warrants categorically prohibited by the 4th Amendment.”
Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court’s liberals in a 4th Amendment privacy case in 2018.
(Alex Wong / Getty Images)
Historians of the 4th Amendment say the constitutional ban on “unreasonable searches and seizures” arose from the anger in the American colonies over British officers using general warrants to search homes and stores even when they had no reason to suspect any particular person of wrongdoing.
The National Assn. of Criminal Defense Lawyers relies on that contention in opposing geofence warrants.
Its lawyers argued the government obtained Chatrie’s “private location information … with an unconstitutional general warrant that compelled Google to conduct a fishing expedition through millions of Google accounts, without any basis for believing that any one of them would contain incriminating evidence.”
Meanwhile, the more liberal 4th Circuit in Virginia divided 7-7 to reject Chatrie’s appeal. Several judges explained the law was not clear, and the police officer had done nothing wrong.
“There was no search here,” Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson wrote in a concurring opinion that defended the use of this tracking data.
He pointed to Supreme Court rulings in the 1970s declaring that check records held by a bank or dialing records held by a phone company were not private and could be searched by investigators without a warrant.
Chatrie had agreed to having his location records held by Google. If financial records for several months are not private, the judge wrote, “surely this request for a two-hour snapshot of one’s public movements” is not private either.
Google changed its policy in 2023 and no longer stores location history data for all of its users. But cellphone carriers continue to receive warrants that seek tracking data.
Wilkinson, a prominent conservative from the Reagan era, also argued it would be a mistake for the courts to “frustrate law enforcement’s ability to keep pace with tech-savvy criminals” or cause “more cold cases to go unsolved. Think of a murder where the culprit leaves behind his encrypted phone and nothing else. No fingerprints, no witnesses, no murder weapon. But because the killer allowed Google to track his location, a geofence warrant can crack the case,” he wrote.
Judges in Los Angeles upheld the use of a geofence warrant to find and convict two men for a robbery and murder in a bank parking lot in Paramount.
The victim, Adbadalla Thabet, collected cash from gas stations in Downey, Bellflower, Compton and Lynwood early in the morning before driving to the bank.
After he was robbed and shot, a Los Angeles County sheriff’s detective found video surveillance that showed he had been followed by two cars whose license plates could not be seen.
The detective then sought a geofence warrant from a Superior Court judge that asked Google for location data for six designated spots on the morning of the murder.
That led to the identification of Daniel Meza and Walter Meneses, who pleaded guilty to the crimes. A California Court of Appeal rejected their 4th Amendment claim in 2023, even though the judges said they had legal doubts about the “novelty of the particular surveillance technique at issue.”
The Supreme Court has also been split on how to apply the 4th Amendment to new types of surveillance.
By a 5-4 vote, the court in 2018 ruled the FBI should have obtained a search warrant before it required a cellphone company to turn over 127 days of records for Timothy Carpenter, a suspect in a series of store robberies in Michigan.
The data confirmed Carpenter was nearby when four of the stores were robbed.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts, joined by four liberal justices, said this lengthy surveillance violated privacy rights protected by the 4th Amendment.
The “seismic shifts in technology” could permit total surveillance of the public, Roberts wrote, and “we decline to grant the state unrestricted access” to these databases.
But he described the Carpenter decision as “narrow” because it turned on the many weeks of surveillance data.
In dissent, four conservatives questioned how tracking someone’s driving violates their privacy. Surveillance cameras and license plate readers are commonly used by investigators and have rarely been challenged.
Solicitor Gen. D. John Sauer relies on that argument in his defense of Chatrie’s conviction. “An individual has no reasonable expectation of privacy in movements that anyone could see,” he wrote.
The justices will issue a decision by the end of June.
Politics
Trump renews bridge, power plant threat against Iran in push for deal, mocks ‘tough guy’ IRGC
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President Donald Trump mocked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard on Sunday morning for staking claim to a Strait of Hormuz “blockade” the U.S. military had already put in place.
“Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing.
“In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be ‘the tough guy!’”
Trump declared Saturday’s IRGC fire was “a total violation” of the ceasefire.
“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” his post began.
“Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations.”
Trump remains hopeful about diplomacy, but is not ruling out a return to force, where he once warned about ending “civilation” in Iran as they know it.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran,” Trump’s stern warning continued.
“NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!
“They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!”
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