Politics

Opinion: Panicking over polls showing Donald Trump ahead of President Biden? Please stop

Published

2 years ago

January 24, 2024

Opinion: Panicking over polls showing Donald Trump ahead of President Biden? Please stop

A little less than a year out from the election, and the headlines are preoccupied with the latest bad poll for the president. The New York Times even wonders whether the president is “toast” as hand-wringing spreads across the progressive community.

While this might sound familiar to anyone reading about President Biden in recent weeks, I’m referring to the polling and headlines that confronted President Obama in the run-up to the 2012 election — which, in case you forgot, he won rather handily despite trailing Mitt Romney in surveys well ahead of the voting.

Over the last several election cycles, polling has increasingly become a central focus of media reporting on campaigns, particularly presidential contests. And that’s unfortunate. Average voters should rarely see or hear about polling because it’s not particularly relevant or actionable for them.

In many ways, however, polling is driving political media narratives. Polling is no longer a part of a news story; it is the news story.

The trouble is that horse race numbers can drive almost any narrative that politicians or journalists find expedient regardless of whether it’s accurate; see the great “red wave” media frenzy of the 2022 midterm elections, which of course proved to be the opposite of the truth. The mainstream media’s coverage of campaigns from such a standpoint is not only mistaken but also irresponsible.

Such coverage is doing to politics what modern cooking shows have done to gastronomy: turning it into something like a sporting competition in which much of the substance that could serve the viewer — such as how to cook anything — is lost in covering dramatic culinary contests. Likewise, instead of helping voters make informed decisions based on the differences between candidates, pundits (including me) spend a great deal of time making the case for or against a candidate based not on their policy positions but on their polling position. What’s lost is what the different records, beliefs and policy positions of the candidates might mean for voters’ everyday lives.

I do understand why polling has become a media obsession. People have always wanted to be able to predict the future, and polling is unfortunately being misconstrued as a political crystal ball.

But predicting the future is not what polls are for. “Polling is not designed or able to do what people most want it to do: predict election winners,” Monika McDermott, a Fordham University professor who studies political psychology and public opinion, told me. “There are far too many variables at stake in any election to perfectly predict the election. But the media and news consumers find horse race numbers exciting and easily digestible, and that’s why all the focus is on them.”

Covering the horse race therefore doesn’t just fail to give the voters vital information they need. It also spends an inordinate amount of time covering something that doesn’t have much of a relationship with what’s going to happen.

Working on campaigns, I often tell my clients that the horse race number — the one that shows how one candidate is faring versus another — is the least important one in a poll. That number is what campaign researchers are spending time and resources to understand how to change, and we do change it. Indeed, a presidential campaign will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to change that number. So as a pollster, I am not fixated on where my candidate is in the head-to-head number; I’m focused on the issues and messaging that will allow me to move that number.

In a two-person race, no candidate with less than 50% support is really safe. If you don’t have a majority, there are enough voters out there who can be persuaded and determine the outcome. So while the headlines scream that Trump leads Biden and the chattering progressive class panics, it really doesn’t matter much that Trump leads right now. The lead at this point, when the arguments and contrasts of the campaign have yet to be made, does not predict the ultimate winner.

That’s particularly true in a presidential contest. Ronald Reagan trailed early on in the public polling before his reelection, as did Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama. But in the end, those national campaigns found compelling contrasts, effective attacks on their opponents, a story about their accomplishments in office and a vision for the future that moved voters toward them over time.

That’s what good campaign polling actually does: It explores how an attack affects different voters to understand how to target an ad. It determines where support is soft among base voters and how to show them that the candidate is fighting for them. It tests the most effective policy proposals to contrast with an opponent to move swing voters.

While horse race numbers are fluid and changeable, voters’ core values and beliefs are not. Good pollsters look beyond the top line to understand how voters make sense of and give order to their lives so we can show them that our candidate can be trusted.

Good campaign coverage should abide by similar principles. The average reader or viewer doesn’t get any helpful information from sensational headlines telling them who appears to be winning or losing right now. How about using more of those resources to explain what each candidate’s election would mean for people like them? That’s the kind of reporting that would lead to more informed voting and ensure that the best candidate wins.

Cornell Belcher is the president of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies and an NBC News political analyst. He was a pollster for the Democratic National Committee and Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns.

Politics

Video: Democrats Confront RFK Jr. on Vaccines and Health Care Fraud

Published

10 hours ago

April 16, 2026

Press Room

Video: Democrats Confront RFK Jr. on Vaccines and Health Care Fraud

new video loaded: Democrats Confront RFK Jr. on Vaccines and Health Care Fraud

transcript

Democrats Confront RFK Jr. on Vaccines and Health Care Fraud

Lawmakers confronted Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccine messaging and the Trump administration’s handling of health care fraud. The health secretary was also criticized over comments he made about psychiatric medications and Black children, which he denied.

: “A deadly measles outbreak in Texas killed an unvaccinated 6-year-old, the first such death in a decade. Do you agree with the majority of doctors that the measles vaccine could have saved that child’s life in Texas?” “It’s possible, certainly.” “President Trump approved your decision to end the C.D.C.’S pro-vaccine public messaging campaign?” “We’ve done better at preventing —” “That’s not answering my question. You suspended this pro-vaccine messaging campaign, but somehow you’re spending taxpayer dollars to drink milk shirtless in a hot tub with Kid Rock.” “Our nation has a long and painful history of separating Black children from their families. During slavery, Black children were taken from their parents and sold with no regard for their humanity. When you suggested re-parenting Black children, when you sow doubt about the safety of vaccines and when you promote unproven statements that have no basis in science, you endanger the lives of everyone across this nation.” “If we’re going to pursue fraudsters, it’s not just the people who might make simple, honest mistakes that could be corrected. It’s the people at the top that help to perpetuate this fraud. And the administration’s position seems to be that it’s only the recipients and not the providers that commit fraud. We want an even-handed approach to these fraud investigations, including those whose schemes have cost the American taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.”
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Lawmakers confronted Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccine messaging and the Trump administration’s handling of health care fraud. The health secretary was also criticized over comments he made about psychiatric medications and Black children, which he denied.

By Jorge Mitssunaga

April 16, 2026

Politics

Tennessee governor signs nuclear family month resolution as critics push back on exclusions

Published

11 hours ago

April 16, 2026

Press Room

Tennessee governor signs nuclear family month resolution as critics push back on exclusions

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Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has signed a resolution declaring June Nuclear Family Month as an alternative to the usual LGBTQ+ Pride Month.

Lee, a Republican, signed House Joint Resolution 182 April 9 after it passed the House in April 2025 and the Senate last month.

The legislation highlights the importance of celebrating the traditional family unit, described as “consisting of one husband, one wife, and any biological, adopted, or fostered children.”

“The nuclear family is under attack in our beloved State and nation, and it is our responsibility to uplift, protect, and support values that help Tennessee prosper,” the resolution adds.

NASHVILLE TEACHER HAS RECORD CLEARED AFTER REFUSING TO READ SAME-SEX MARRIAGE BOOK TO FIRST-GRADERS

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed a resolution declaring June “Nuclear Family Month,” promoting traditional family structures as an alternative to Pride Month. (Getty Images)

A spokesperson for the governor did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

LGBTQ+ advocacy groups have begun to speak out against the resolution, and a representative for GLAAD gave Fox News Digital its opinion on the bill.

OHIO TEACHER SUES HIGH SCHOOL FOR DEMANDING HE REMOVE LGBT POSTER INSIDE CLASSROOM

LGBTQ community members hold flags and placards during a rally. (Roy De La Cruz/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

“The strongest families are grounded in love, not legislative definitions. It is disturbing to see lawmakers use their platform to intentionally exclude their own constituents,” the organization wrote in a statement.

“Instead of drafting resolutions that aim to divide Tennessee families, Gov. Lee should be focused on building a state where every family is treated fairly, and every child has the opportunity to succeed.”

The news of the legislation comes a few days after the pride flag at Stonewall National Monument’s federal flagpole in New York City, a well-known symbol for the LGBTQ+ community, was restored after a two-month legal battle and settlement with the Trump administration.

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee responds to questions during a news conference Tuesday, April 11, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn. (George Walker IV/AP)

“This is a victory for the LGBTQ+ community and for our entire city,” Mayor Zohran Mamdani wrote in an X post Monday. “It’s a reminder that New Yorkers won’t let our history be rewritten.

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“Our administration will keep working to ensure LGBTQ+ New Yorkers can live safely and with dignity in our city.”

Fox News Digital’s Ashley J. DiMella contributed to this report.

Brittany Miller is a Breaking News Writer for Fox News Digital. Tips can be sent to brittany.miller@fox.com and @BrittMillerFox on X.

Politics

Hegseth recites ‘Pulp Fiction’ speech at Pentagon prayer service

Published

12 hours ago

April 16, 2026

Press Room

Hegseth recites ‘Pulp Fiction’ speech at Pentagon prayer service

WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, leading a Pentagon prayer meeting, quoted a fictional bible verse taken from a violent monologue in Quentin Tarantino’s 1994 film “Pulp Fiction,” originally delivered by actor Samuel L. Jackson just before his character shoots a helpless man to death.

The secretary used the prayer to frame the war in Iran as an act of divine justice, the same justification Jackson’s character cites in the film before pulling the trigger.

Hegseth told the audience at a monthly Pentagon worship service held Wednesday that he learned the prayer from the lead mission planner of a team called “Sandy 1,” which recently rescued downed Air Force crew members in Iran.

Hegseth said the verse is frequently spoken by combat search-and-rescue crews, who call the prayer “CSAR 25:17, which I think is meant to reflect Ezekiel 25:17” from the Bible.

“And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to capture and destroy my brother,” Hegseth recited. “And you will know my call sign is Sandy 1, when I lay my vengeance upon thee.”

The infamous Ezekiel 25:17 speech from “Pulp Fiction” is almost entirely a screenwriter’s creation; only the final refrain is loosely inspired by the actual biblical verse. The majority of the monologue in Tarantino’s film is adapted from the opening of the 1976 Japanese martial arts film “The Bodyguard,” with action star Sonny Chiba.

Hegseth’s minute-long prayer closely followed those scripts, with only the last two lines resembling language from the Bible. In Hegseth’s version, he replaced “and they shall know that I am the Lord,” from the book of Ezekiel with the call sign for a U.S. A-10 Warthog aircraft.

Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell said some outlets accused Hegseth of mistaking Jackson’s Golden Globe-winning performance with actual scripture, and called that narrative “fake news.”

“Secretary Hegseth on Wednesday shared a custom prayer, referenced as the CSAR prayer, used by the brave warfighters of Sandy-1 who led the daylight rescue mission of Dude 44 Alpha out of Iran, which was obviously inspired by dialogue in Pulp Fiction,” Parnell wrote on X. “However, both the CSAR prayer and the dialogue in Pulp Fiction were reflections of the verse Ezekiel 25:17, as Secretary Hegseth clearly said in his remarks at the prayer service. Anyone saying the Secretary misquoted Ezekiel 25:17 is peddling fake news and ignorant of reality.”

“Pulp Fiction” co-writer Roger Avary, who shared the Academy Award for Original Screenplay with Tarantino, weighed in Thursday, posting on X: “I am perfectly fine with @SecWar
quoting Jules in Pulp Fiction if it keeps bullets from hitting our soldiers.”

Hegseth has frequently used his prayer sessions to call for violence in the ongoing Iran war. In last month’s sermon, he asked God to “grant this task force clear and righteous targets for violence.”

The services are not mandatory, a senior defense analyst with knowledge of Pentagon operations told The Times, but some who work closely with Hegseth’s office feel an “implied pressure” to attend and “fill seats.”

The effect — some feel — is less attention on the Pentagon’s wartime efforts, and more on supporting political stunts, according to the source, who is not authorized to speak to the media and requested anonymity.

“We have managers and leaders that are missing mission critical work to go listen to ‘Pulp Fiction’ quotes,” the source said. “It delays our ability to make operational, mission related war-fighting decisions.”

The prayer came amid an ongoing clash between the Trump administration and Pope Leo XIV, who has spoken out in recent weeks against the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. Statements from the Vatican were met with a series of reprisals from President Trump, who said he doesn’t “want a pope” who criticizes the president of the United States.

On Thursday, the pope released a statement against military leaders who conflate war with divinity.

“Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic, and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth,” he said.