Politics
New poll indicates whether Harris or Trump is making gains with younger voters
A new poll indicates surging support among America’s youngest voters for Vice President Harris in her 2024 showdown against former President Trump.
Harris tops Trump by 31 points among people aged 18-29 likely to vote in the presidential election, according to a poll released Tuesday morning by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School.
That’s a dramatic switch from Harvard’s survey from this spring, which indicated President Biden topping Trump by just 13 points among likely youth voters.
The numbers in Harvard’s spring survey, as well as similar findings in other polls, raised alarms among Democrats, as younger voters have long been a key part of the party’s base.
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Biden dropped his re-election bid in July in the wake of a disastrous debate performance against Trump, and Harris instantly enjoyed a wave of enthusiasm and momentum as she replaced her boss atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket.
“This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch,” longtime IOP polling director John Della Volpe said. “Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities.”
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Harris grabs the support of 61% of likely voters aged 18-29, according to the poll, with Trump at 30%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West each stand at 1% support, with 6% undecided or refusing to answer.
The vice president’s lead over Trump exceeds the roughly 25-point victory by Biden over Trump among younger voters, according to a Fox News Voter Analysis of the 2020 presidential election.
The latest Fox News national poll, conducted this month, indicated Harris topping Trump by 17 points among voters under age 30.
The poll points to a number of factors fueling Harris’ very large margin over Trump.
Among them, a significant enthusiasm gap of nearly three-quarters of young Democrats saying they will “definitely” vote, compared to 6-in-10 Republicans, and a jump in Harris’ approval rating as vice president, from 32% in the spring to 44% now. Harris’ favorable rating now stands at plus five points, while Trump’s favorables are 30 points underwater.
Also boosting Harris: She outperforms Trump on key issues and personal qualities asked of both major party nominees in the survey.
The poll also points to a boost for Harris from social media, highlighting that just over half of young voters questioned “encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception.”
The survey also spotlights a widening gender gap of 30 points, up from 17 points in the spring.
“While both men and women are moving toward Harris, the rate of female support eclipses male support,” the poll’s release notes.
According to the survey, Harris holds a 53%-36% margin among likely male voters aged 18-29, but her lead surges to 70%-23% among likely female voters.
Pointing to his survey’s results, Della Volpe emphasized that “Gen Z and young millennials’ heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024.”
The survey by the Institute of Politics is Harvard’s 48th Youth Poll. Over the past quarter-century, Harvard University has become a leader in gauging young Americans’ political opinions and voting trends.
The latest edition of the poll was conducted Sept. 4-16 with 2,002 people 18-29 nationwide questioned. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
Politics
‘Cesspools,’ ‘Hellholes’ and ‘Beautiful Places’: How Trump Describes the U.S.
When talking about the United States and places in it, most presidential candidates stick to positives and platitudes. Not so for Donald J. Trump in this election cycle.
Map of the United States showing a quote that reads “we’re like a garbage can for the rest of the world.”
He is quick to denigrate American cities, often those home to large immigrant populations. He does so both individually and collectively, sometimes in crude terms.
The same map now shows a quote that reads “”the cities are rotting and they are indeed cesspools of blood.”
This includes liberal strongholds like Chicago, Washington, D.C. and Atlanta …
A quote geolocated on D.C. reads “rat-infested, graffiti-infested shithole.” A quote geolocated on Atlanta reads “killing field.” A quote geolocated on Chicago reads “worse than Afghanistan.”
… as well as San Francisco and Portland.
A quote geolocated on San Francisco reads “destroyed.” A quote geolocated on Portland reads “a burned-down hulk of a city.”
Since declaring his candidacy, he has spoken in harsh negative terms about many American cities. He included multiple Californian cities on a list of “war zones and ganglands.”
The map shows four cities in California that Mr. Trump has called “war zones.” The cities are San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland and Los Angeles.
Northeastern, Midwestern and Southern cities have been subject to his insults, too.
The map then zooms back to the eastern part of the country and highlights quotes for New Orleans (“war zones”); Atlanta (“killing field”); Washington, D.C. (“hellhole); New York (“filthy”); Detroit (“decimated”); Baltimore (“dangerous”); Chicago (“war zones”); and Minneapolis (“like a fire pit”).
These statements are sharply contrasted by the way Mr. Trump tends to talk about places that support him — especially the red states that make up his base. Sometimes he lumps them together. In one instance, he referred collectively to “places like Indiana and Iowa and Idaho.”
The same map labels Idaho, Iowa and Indiana with the quote: “states that you don’t even hear too much of because they’re so good and so well run.”
He’s vividly praised Montana and Alaska, too.
A quote geolocated on Montana reads “land of cowboys and cattle hands … one of the most beautiful places in all of God’s creation.” A quote geolocated on Alaska reads “an incredible place and beautiful state.”
Here’s a sampling of places he has called “beautiful,” “great” or “good,” or said he loves.
The map labels thirty places across the United States that Mr. Trump has called “beautiful,” “incredible” or “great,” or said he loves.
Perhaps most unusual is Mr. Trump’s tendency to combine these two points, pointing out places he feels were once beautiful, but are now in decline. If his campaign rests on his vow to make America great again, he seems to think he has plenty of work to do — in both small cities like Aurora, Colo. and Springfield, Ohio …
A quote near Aurora and Springfield reads “These were two beautiful, successful towns, idyllic. And they’re in trouble, big trouble.” A quote geolocated on Montana reads “land of cowboys and cattle hands… one of the most beautiful places in all of God’s creation.”
… and bigger ones like Detroit and New York City.
A quote geolocated on Detroit reads “once great city.” A quote geolocated on New York City reads “city in decline.”
That rhetorical move animates Mr. Trump’s approach to the entirety of the country he hopes to lead again. He presents himself as the sole savior of the nation …
A quote over the map of the United States reads “our once great country, soon to be greater-than-ever-before country.”
… and makes the alternative seem dire.
A quote over the map of the United States reads “Your country is being turned into a third world hellhole ruled by censors, perverts, criminals and thugs.”
Politics
Early in-person voting ending Saturday in North Carolina, New Mexico, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
Saturday is the final day for early in-person voting in New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia and Virginia as the nation sits just three days from Election Day.
Here is everything you need to know to cast a last-minute ballot during early voting.
North Carolina is a top swing state this cycle
North Carolina last voted for a Democratic president in 2008, when Sen. Barack Obama won the state by 0.3 points, or 14,177 votes.
Trump pulled out a convincing 3.7-point win in 2016, but that margin shrank to 1.3 points against Biden in 2020.
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Late last month, the Fox News Poll had the two 2024 presidential candidates just a point apart, with Democratic nominee Vice President Harris at 49% and former President Trump at 50%. North Carolina is ranked a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.
The state has become more competitive as its population has grown. Over the last full decade, North Carolina added roughly 1.1 million people, the fourth-largest gain among all states.
Much of that growth has been in urban and suburban areas like those in solidly blue Mecklenburg and Wake counties.
The pandemic brought more wealthy, urban Americans from surrounding states, and there are pockets of college voters as well.
Rural areas have experienced some population decline, but they remain a powerful part of the state’s overall vote, and they vote overwhelmingly Republican.
Here are the key down-ballot races in today’s states
- North Carolina’s 1st District: Democratic Rep. Don Davis won this open seat in the midterms by under five points. This year, he’s up against Army veteran Laurie Buckhout for this northeastern district with a high proportion of Black voters. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.
- North Carolina’s 13th and 14th Districts: Redistricting shifted both of these seats, once based in Raleigh and Charlotte, into sprawling, predominantly exurban and rural districts. That makes them easy targets for Republicans, who are likely to flip both of them this November. In the 13th district, small businessman Frank Pierce (D) is up against prosecutor Brad Knott (R), and in the 14th, it’s U.S. Army veteran and nurse Pam Genant (D) versus state legislator Tim Moore (R).
- West Virginia Senate: Republicans will kick off the night strong in West Virginia. The seat is held by Sen. Joe Manchin, who decided not to run for re-election earlier this year. The senator’s enduring relationship with West Virginians helped him eke out a three-point win in 2018, but with former President Donald Trump’s nearly 39-point win in the last presidential race, this is deep red territory. Democrats needed Manchin on the ballot to put up a good fight. That victory alone would give Republicans 50 senate seats, or one short of a majority. (If Trump wins the presidential race, the GOP would rule the senate even without a majority because the vice president breaks ties.)
- New Mexico’s 2nd District: New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District occupies most of the southwest land area of the state. It includes Las Cruces and parts of Albuquerque, but it also has a chunk of rural votes. Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez won the district by just 1,350 votes in the midterms; this year, he faces the seat’s former Republican occupant, Yvette Herrell. This is a Power Rankings toss-up.
- Virginia’s 2nd District: Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District was one of the most closely watched races in 2022 and a Republican flip. Rep. Jen Kiggans faces U.S. Navy veteran and small businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal this time in a military-heavy district that includes Virginia Beach. This is a Lean R race in the Power Rankings.
- Virginia’s 7th District: The north central 7th District stayed in Democratic hands in 2022 thanks to Abigail Spanberger’s strong brand, but she is vacating the seat at the end of this term to run for governor. This will be a face-off between two Army veterans: Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson. The race shifted from Lean D to toss-up in the final Power Rankings before Election Day.
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How to vote in New Mexico
Voters who have received their mail-in ballot have until Nov. 5 to deliver it to local election officials. Saturday is the final day for early in-person voting.
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How to vote in North Carolina
Voters who have received their mail-in ballots have until Nov. 5 to deliver them to local election officials. Saturday is the final day for early in-person voting.
How to vote in South Carolina
Voters who have received their mail-in ballot have until Nov. 5 to deliver it to local election officials. Saturday is the final day for early in-person voting.
How to vote in West Virginia
Voters who have received their mail-in ballot have until Nov. 5 to deliver it to local election officials. Saturday is the final day for early in-person voting.
How to vote in Virginia
Voters who have received their mail-in ballot have until Nov. 5 to deliver it to local election officials. Saturday is the final day for early in-person voting.
Politics
Supreme Court turns away RNC plea to disqualify Pennsylvania voters who mailed ballots with errors
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Friday turned down an appeal from the Republican National Committee and refused to disqualify Pennsylvania voters who had sent in a mail ballot with an error on the envelope.
There were no dissents.
The decision is a victory for voting rights advocates who fought the issue in Pennsylvania courts.
They said voters should not lose their right to vote because they made a minor error on the mailing envelope.
The court did not issue an opinion explaining its decision. Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., in a separate statement, said the Pennsylvania ruling was “controversial” and questionable, but there were procedural reasons for not ruling on the matter now.
Conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil M. Gorsuch said they agreed.
In response to the decision, Witold Walczak, legal director of the ACLU of Pennsylvania, said “a petty error that is irrelevant to a person’s eligibility to vote should never interfere with the counting of ballots, and provisional ballots are a decades-old fail-safe, a backup, for voters. We’re grateful that the RNC’s argument has failed and that voters can count on provisional ballots as a way to make sure that their vote counts.”
The Harris-Walz campaign also applauded the outcome. “Today’s decision confirms that, for every eligible voter, the right to vote means the right to have your vote counted,” a Harris statement read.
A decision in favor of the RNC could have affected several thousand voters across a state that is seen as pivotal in the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.
Last week, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court gave legally registered voters a second chance to cast a ballot.
By a 4-3 vote, the state justices ruled that voters who sent in a defective mail ballot could go to their polling place on election day and file a provisional ballot that would be counted.
Trump and the Pennsylvania Republicans were highly skeptical of voting by mail four years ago, contending it could lead to fraud.
The Supreme Court conservatives have also been skeptical of judges making last-minute changes in voting rules.
On Monday, the RNC filed an emergency appeal in the Supreme Court and argued that the state court had “dramatically changed the rules on mail voting…in the midst of the ongoing general election.”
They said Pennsylvania law did not “create a cure process for mail ballot errors.”
Their appeal asked the justices to either throw out the state court ruling entirely or instead order the “segregation of affected provisional ballots” so they can be counted separately.
Election officials in Pennsylvania said the RNC claim is wrong. They told the court that many counties have offered provisional ballots to voters whose mail ballot was flawed. They said it would be dramatic change in the law to revoke that standard practice.
In its 4-3 decision, the state court said voters should not lose their right to vote because their mail ballot had an error on the envelope, such as a missing date or signature, or it was not mailed in a cover envelope.
The state judges agreed those defective ballots were “void” and could not be counted, but they said the voters should be permitted to cast a provisional vote in person.
“What honest voting principle is violated by recognizing the validity of one ballot cast by one voter,” said state Justice Christine Donohue for the majority.
The ACLU and other voting rights advocates defended that decision in response to the RNC’s appeal.
“The provisional voting process ensures that, for each voter, one ballot will be counted—not two ballots, and not zero ballots,” they argued.
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